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Astros 2020-21 offseason- can't be any worse than last year, right? RIGHT?


Wulaw Horn

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So, we have pretty much been targeted with prejudice by the baseball gods. 
Losing our best 2 pitchers, our best prospect, GM and Manager, having Dusty Baker foisted upon us- the former top prospect in the minors, the heart and soul of the team etc. it’s been a rough 15 months. 
Just goes to show what an incredible job Lunow did in building a solid and stable organization that all that shit can happen and we are still odds on favorites to win the division. 
I’m still angry about him being the fall guy for the stupid ass cheating scandal while all those fuckers in Boston are back on the job, nothing happened to those fuckers in NY and LA, and we are the fucking pariahs of baseball. It’s truly unjust. 

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22 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Just goes to show what an incredible job Lunow did in building a solid and stable organization that all that shit can happen and we are still odds on favorites to win the division. 

We are not even the favorites much less the odds on favorites. (Per betting sites) and  our minor league system is currently one of the worst in the league. Our payroll is top 5, giving little wiggle room to improve the team. I’ll admit that Luhnow did a masterful job of guiding the club from the worst of times to the best of times. But don’t kid yourself thinking that the Astros are going to be like the Cardinals, Yankees or Dodgers in terms of perennial powers. 

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18 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

We are not even the favorites much less the odds on favorites. (Per betting sites) and  our minor league system is currently one of the worst in the league. Our payroll is top 5, giving little wiggle room to improve the team. I’ll admit that Luhnow did a masterful job of guiding the club from the worst of times to the best of times. But don’t kid yourself thinking that the Astros are going to be like the Cardinals, Yankees or Dodgers in terms of perennial powers. 

This horseshit about the farm sucking is silly and irrelevant. The system keeps throwing out major league quality arms all over the place, and the  positional players in like 5 or 6 spots are high quality and locked down for years and years at prices that won’t bankrupt us. I can promise you plenty of teams would be lined up around the block to pay Altuve, Bregman, Tucker and Alvarez collectively less than 300 million total over the next 5 seasons. 
I will take as much money as you want on astros to win the division even up. You are seriously downgrading the strength of this team. 
Our window is wide open through 2025 or whenever Altuve, Bergman, Yordan, Tucker and all those guys are up, if Click can get a deal done with Correa. 
I’m supposed to be worried because we’ve graduated 8 or 10 quality bats and arms that are young and cheap and good and wish they were unproven minor leaguers so our team can having a higher farm system ranking? GTFO with that. 
next season we lose $70 million in more or less dead or severely overpaid money off the books in JV and Greinke- if they can’t buy 10 WAR in FA to replace that roughly 2 WAR they are going f to lose with that extra 60 something million that’s completely and totally on them, not Lunow, who

left an incredible foundation. 

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This horseshit about the farm sucking is silly and irrelevant. The system keeps throwing out major league quality arms all over the place, and the  positional players in like 5 or 6 spits are high quality and locked down for years and years. 
I will take as much money as you want on astros to win the division even up. You are seriously downgrading the strength of this team. 

I’m as big a homer as you’ll find on this thread but also a realist. A shitty farm system is not irrelevant. Whitley was our single top 100 guy. Without top prospects you can’t survive. No team can afford to replenish their team solely from free agents. And without top prospects, the team also doesn’t have capital to do it via trades.

I don’t think we are going to return to 2011-13 Astros but I also don’t think they will consistently be the 2017-19 Astros either. 

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38 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

We are not even the favorites much less the odds on favorites. (Per betting sites) 

i haven't seen your betting sites, but fangraphs has us at 57% to win the division, angels at 22%, a's at 18%.

also what is the difference between "favorites" and "odds-on favorites"?

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5 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’m as big a homer as you’ll find on this thread but also a realist. A shitty farm system is not irrelevant. Whitley was our single top 100 guy. Without top prospects you can’t survive. No team can afford to replenish their team solely from free agents. And without top prospects, the team also doesn’t have capital to do it via trades.

I don’t think we are going to return to 2011-13 Astros but I also don’t think they will consistently be the 2017-19 Astros either. 

They’ve already got the stars (if they re-sign Correa). All they need. Ow is the farm to continue to pump out functional big league players for the foreseeable future. Seriously, if click doesn’t suck we are fine through 2025. It’s a fools errand to project shit past 5 years in this game. Might we have to take a step back when Altuve, Bergman, Tucker, Yordan, Framber etc come off the board?  Sure. But you can hopefully trade all the guys that came up last year (and maybe Correa if you sign him now) if you don’t have any stars beyond 25 to constitute tent poles for the organization to continue to be title contenders. 

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i haven't seen your betting sites, but fangraphs has us at 57% to win the division, angels at 22%, a's at 18%.

also what is the difference between "favorites" and "odds-on favorites"?

Favorite would be Astros 40, Angels 30, A’s 30. We’d be number 1 but more likely than not to not win the division. 
55 or 60% for astros would be odds on favorite. 

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Favorite would be Astros 40, Angels 30, A’s 30. We’d be number 1 but more likely than not to not win the division. 
55 or 60% for astros would be odds on favorite. 

so majority vs plurality.  weird i've never seen it defined that way.

but according to fangraphs we're both i guess.  i haven't seen anyplace we're not predicted to win the west.

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i haven't seen your betting sites, but fangraphs has us at 57% to win the division, angels at 22%, a's at 18%.

also what is the difference between "favorites" and "odds-on favorites"?

“Odds on” means heavily favored. The betting sites like Vegas insider and oddsshark have the A’s as slight favorites. 

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i find it amusing that your definitions don't match.

I don’t know that there is an actual definition. I just know that you’d never say it of a plurality choice. When the warriors signed Durant they were something like -150 to win the title (teams are never minus to win a title before the season starts). They were called the odds on favorite bc it was more likely than not. 
to my way of thinking what Tony is describing is what I’d call “prohibitive favorite”. 
Again- I’m not saying that this is something out of a dictionary I’m just saying that’s how I’ve always heard/used the term. 
Tony’s definition has zero specificity so I think you could argue the Astros being 60% to win a 5 team division makes them a pretty strong favorite. 
Especially in the projections/futures market when the progressions skew every team toward the middle. 

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Just looked up ZiPS for 2021 and it had astros making minimum wage to project to 17 plus War.  Then, you have players that are underpaid that haven’t hit the market yet projected to have another 13 war. 
So, that’s 30 War from non FA. That’s a 500 team and that doesn’t count WAR from Altuve, Gurriel, Catcher or Brantley because they’ve all reached FA status and aren’t making money anymore. Also doesn’t count Greinke for the same reason- he’s making market wage. Nor Jake O. 
this team has a 210 million payroll but it’s really only 175 bc of JV. 
As long as the payroll doesn’t decline that means there should be enough money to resign LMJ, Correa and an all star caliber 1B just letting JV and Greinke and Gurriel walk. Or a really good 1B and a really good catcher or CF if Straw shits the bed or Machete is done. 
this should be- if we commit to paying up to the luxury tax, the least talented astros team we will see between now and 2025. That’s an awesome foundation. 

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2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

so majority vs plurality.  weird i've never seen it defined that way.

but according to fangraphs we're both i guess.  i haven't seen anyplace we're not predicted to win the west.

ESPN had us winning 94 games, the 4th most in baseball. I think it's ridiculous to think this team is not the overwhelming favorites right now to win the division.

Not that this simplistic look at the top 3 teams in the West matters but shit I'm bored.

C - A's = Murphy, Stassi/Suzuki, Castro/Maldonado

1B - A's = Olson, Walsh, Gurriel

2B - Astros = Altuve, Fletcher, Kemp/Pinder

SS - Astros = Correa, Andrus, Iglesias

3B - Push = Rendon, Bregman, Chapman

LF - Astros = Brantley, Canha, Upton

CF - Angels = Trout, Laureano, Straw

RF - Astros = Tucker, Piscotty, Fowler

DH - Astros = Alvarez, Moreland, Ohtani

SP - Push = If Framber was healthy and the Astros still signed Odorizzi it wouldn't be close. I think all 3 starting staffs will be above average.

BP - Push = I think all 3 bullpens have enough pieces to make things difficult in many game situations.

MANAGER - Angels = Maddon, Baker, Melvin. Maddon has won a championship, but I think he's overrated, Baker has seen everything and beat Melvin in the ALDS last year.

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55 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

So to answer the question in the title of this thread.

Yes.

Still not as bad as last year losing Lunhow and Hinch and then JV for both the years of his 67 million dollar extension, but it’s getting close. 
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck. 

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16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Still not as bad as last year losing Lunhow and Hinch and then JV for both the years of his 67 million dollar extension, but it’s getting close. 
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck. 

Losing Hinch was so bad that the Astros nearly made it back to the WS. That is going to be a hard argument to win.

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1 minute ago, HtownHorn said:

Losing Hinch was so bad that the Astros nearly made it back to the WS. That is going to be a hard argument to win.

It’s a big step down from him to dusty. It’s a big step down losing Lunow to Click. We managed to go 29-31. Throw em a parade, right? 

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12 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Rangers are going to 100% for opening day and then scaled back for April and May (50%?)... I would assume Astros follow suit..

 

I get it, but there is more than enough tangible evidence that outdoors large gatherings are not Covid super spreader events. If anything it means that MMP should be open roof for the majority of the season.

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16 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

If anything it means that MMP should be open roof for the majority of the season.

I know there are plenty of purists out there that think baseball should be played outdoors but it sure is a lot more comfortable watching in Houston the summer with A/C. 

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WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — The Astros are currently “not planning” to fill Minute Maid Park at 100 percent capacity in April, but the club may increase its previously planned opening day attendance numbers in the wake of Gov. Greg Abbott’s orders to reopen Texas.

The team will address their regular-season capacity in a phased approach, according to an email sent to season ticket holders on Wednesday. The first phase covers the 14 home games in April.

“Our focus has been to assess demand as opposed to forcing a cap,” said Anita Sehgal, the Astros senior vice president of marketing and communications. “We looked at what all 30 clubs are doing and everyone is in a fluid position based on the state of the virus. We’re going to continued be flexible.”

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On Wednesday, the Texas Rangers announced they will open Globe Life Field at 100 percent capacity for their two exhibition games and regular-season, home opener on April 1. The Astros, according to Sehgal, have no plans to do the same.

“Our focus was never to operate the building at 100 percent in April,” Sehgal said. “At this point in time, we are not planning for 100 percent in April.”

Video: Houston Chronicle

For the 14 Astros home games in April, including their home-opener on April 8, the club presented their season-ticket holders four options: keeping their existing seats, relocating elsewhere in the ballpark to ensure social distancing, pausing their accounts for April or donating their April tickets to healthcare workers or first responders.

If season-ticket holders keep their existing seats, the Astros cannot ensure social distancing around them. Socially distant seating locations will be placed around the ballpark, but demand will dictate how many seats are available.

“It will be somewhat dependent on what our season-ticket holders decide to do,” Sehgal said. “We got input from our season-ticket holders in order to come up with this plan and as they choose whether to move to a socially distanced area or stay in their seat, if we have a high demand for the socially-distanced area, we will adjust accordingly.”

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15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I got my tickets in my Norma season ticket spot and there is no social distancing in my section. There is a choice for “move me to a socially distanced area” as well so not sure how high capacity can be for that to be an option.  

It is explained in my above post. Basically , the season ticket holder choices will determine the socially distanced availability. 

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