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COVID-19 vaccine discussion


Texas Jeff

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32 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Agreed.  Fair point.  But it was in the form of mask, no mask, staying home, not staying home, etc.  This is an actual verbal (again, not written online) declarations made in conversations and situations where it's kind of appropriate because it's topical but also awkward for everybody else in the conversation/room.  But I guess you're right, this is just the next step in how we plant flags around this whole debacle.  I guess I was also more surprised by who was saying what.  Wasn't always the guy you had pegged as the middle-aged, anti-science curmuddgeon.  Many times, it's the hipster 25-year old building manager who just cleverly works it into the property tour that she and her officemates have chosen not to get the shots because they just feel like it infringes upon their sense of adventure in the new world (yeah, that happened downtown the other day to me)

I think that's the inherent weaknesses of trying to put people in simple boxes (as we all do and have forever). If you look at the data, it actually bears out your experience: vaccination rates heavily decline with age, so one would expect a hipster to have a lower Pr(vaccination) than a middle-aged person according to the data. Similarly, the biggest gap between the memes and the data is that anti-vaxxers predominately are deplorable MAGA people ... unless one believes deplorable MAGA folks are African-Americans and Latinos in large, Democratic cities. Some of the lower vaccination rates are in places like Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and New York (and the racial gaps in terms of hesitancy are obvious across the U.S.). 

That being said, I generally find it weird for people to discuss their personal health decisions regardless of topic. I never get the flu vaccine for my own reasons, but I never volunteered that to friends much less strangers. What I found most interested about the New York data is I suspect there is a big gap between what some are virtue signaling and what actually is occurring (said another way a lot of the people that post the vaccine Facebook theme have not been vaccinated).

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35 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

You are obviously a bright guy - I think we can all agree on that. That's not the objection to your conclusion. 

You make the same leap here with teachers.

Those factual holes stand out in any analysis. The data may support your conclusion. Find out and follow that method of truth seeking.

With the best intent, you are bright enough to fuck around and find out. The data may vindicate you - or - you will reach another conclusion based on the data. Rinse and repeat.  

Remember your Aristotle - a conclusion provides the opportunity to examine that conclusion from a different perspective. 

Thank you (I think). I mean I agreed that there is really no way to quantify who is the most "pro-vaccine" and admittedly I was making a non-data-based, qualitative assertion. I remain surprised that NYC teachers do not have a 90% vaccination rate.

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Took my kids (15/12) this afternoon to get round 1, so they can get round 2 right before school starts up. We would have done it sooner, but we’ve been out of town. The doctors I work with all have vaccinated their kids, so we didn’t think much about it and just scheduled it. It helped that both kids had done their own reading and wanted to get the shots even though we live in an area where they are in the vast minority in their age group. I think some of the bs they read online about fertility issues and other things definitely concerned them, but they were smart enough not to get caught up in it. My mother expressed her displeasure with it and my oldest basically told her that it was her decision and she didn’t need her approval. The fucking nutjobs are going to be the end of all of us.

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On 7/26/2021 at 11:24 AM, Lobo said:

Yeah, the 12-18 group is still hard to get a read on with regard to vaccine necessity.  Any parent with a kid that age is facing a conundrum I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy.  My oldest is 6.5 right now.  If a deployable vaccine for her age group is available at year's end, which it looks like it will be...we'll still wring our hands over what to do for awhile.  It'll be gut-wrenching and I'm not looking forward to that window of time.  

Now when it comes to parents who are worried like me, but they themselves are not getting the vaccine.  I think it's funny to cheer for their demise and laugh and piss on their graves.  You got kids who can still catch it at home, you got grandparents down the street who are medically vulnerable, and this is the big stand you take in life.  You never made anything of yourself but now you decide to be bold?  Fuck you, choke out and die you fat fucking pricks.  

My oldest is 10 so we are a ways away (and hopefully it’s gone by then) but yeah- I don’t feel super comfortable getting her vaxed. The number of serious issues with kids is just so small that I don’t know that it’s a risk worth taking. I got vaxed ASAP. I made sure my wife got vaxed when she didn’t want to. I’m not sure that I will feel the same for my kids. By then we should have a couple more years of data. I’m glad my kid isn’t on the leading edge of that. 

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17 hours ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

No idea how to fix this. Exponential bad because spread will have disproportionate impact.

image.png.2e27f3f3987947b0df64294cfc1a57a0.png

While I don't doubt that vaccine hesitancy exists in the black community, this chart may be a little bit misleading.  It's based on total population, not vaccine-eligible population.  I'm pretty sure that overall, blacks and particularly hispanics have more children than whites or asians.  A large portion of those children cannot get vaccinated and if you correct for that, the numbers would probably be closer together.  Maybe they accounted for that in the data, but it doesn't say they did.

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^

that's a good point, statistically speaking.  If it includes "un-vaccinatable" children, that throws a good deal of that data set into chaos.  And it's not politically incorrect to point that out either.  I'm guessing folks who have immunization compromises are likely spread pretty evenly among the four groups.  But Asians and Whites just don't have as many children per capita/per household as Blacks and Hispanics. Census and anecdotal evidence tell us that's the case.  

It's okay though, Whites make up for part of the vaccine lag in other ways.  Like being Christian Scientists, Scientologists, and to some extent-the Amish, Mennonites, and Jehovah's Witness (which actually does have a large Hispanic membership).  Obviously not a significant skew as they total maybe 2-3 million in all, here in the U.S.  

Now, somewhere out there is an Amish Black family with 7 kids and they are skewing this shit big time! 

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32 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

While I don't doubt that vaccine hesitancy exists in the black community, this chart may be a little bit misleading.  It's based on total population, not vaccine-eligible population.  I'm pretty sure that overall, blacks and particularly hispanics have more children than whites or asians.  A large portion of those children cannot get vaccinated and if you correct for that, the numbers would probably be closer together.  Maybe they accounted for that in the data, but it doesn't say they did.

in other parts of their analysis, they mention "adult population." not sure if that denominator is the same for this chart. as you state, they don't explicitly say so for this chart. might be interesting to reach out to the authors and see if they can clarify

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11 minutes ago, midtown said:

Interdasting 3952c955122e89315d1191b6a8cfbf34.jpg

As I’ve been keeping up with the r/Austin and surly threads, kinda expect that to happen here…it’ll race through the unvaccinated and those vaccinated but with mild cases, then run out of people to chain-infect.  If the R0 is so high, the slope of that curve will be scary steep but burnout quickly.  

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Makes sense to me that when cases are rapidly rising, they can equally fall as fast. People are well aware when the virus is burning through their community and act accordingly. I still recall that last spring, restaurants were effectively shutting down BEFORE Abbot ordered them closed. Abbott's order did basically nothing because customers were already acting on their own. 

Missouri is looking to already improving from their latest spike.

The problem is that if each wave still doesn't convince people to get vaccinated, any area will most likely face another wave in the future.

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24 minutes ago, Lobo said:

^

that's a good point, statistically speaking.  If it includes "un-vaccinatable" children, that throws a good deal of that data set into chaos.  And it's not politically incorrect to point that out either.  I'm guessing folks who have immunization compromises are likely spread pretty evenly among the four groups.  But Asians and Whites just don't have as many children per capita/per household as Blacks and Hispanics. Census and anecdotal evidence tell us that's the case.  

It's okay though, Whites make up for part of the vaccine lag in other ways.  Like being Christian Scientists, Scientologists, and to some extent-the Amish, Mennonites, and Jehovah's Witness (which actually does have a large Hispanic membership).  Obviously not a significant skew as they total maybe 2-3 million in all, here in the U.S.  

Now, somewhere out there is an Amish Black family with 7 kids and they are skewing this shit big time! 

Interesting. I did a quick BOE and adjusted for people older than 14 I got 59% and 48% vaccination rates for whites and blacks, respectively. Hispanics adjusted was 57%.

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35 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Horrible take.

After delta goes through our population this time almost every person will have been exposed or inoculated. If you’re worried about new variants those vaccines should be sent to high transmission third world areas like South America or Africa. This is without mentioning that mandates are a permanent solution to a temporary problem. 

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1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

While I don't doubt that vaccine hesitancy exists in the black community, this chart may be a little bit misleading.  It's based on total population, not vaccine-eligible population.  I'm pretty sure that overall, blacks and particularly hispanics have more children than whites or asians.  A large portion of those children cannot get vaccinated and if you correct for that, the numbers would probably be closer together.  Maybe they accounted for that in the data, but it doesn't say they did.

wow.  the differences are huge.

Quote

The white demographic decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups. This leads to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size. In 2019, the white median age was 43.7, compared to 29.8 for Latinos or Hispanics, 34.6 for Black residents, 37.5 for Asian Americans, and 20.9 for persons identifying as two or more races. The new census estimates show that, in contrast to other groups, white Americans sustained a natural decrease (an excess of deaths over births) of 1,073,206 over the 2010 to 2019 period. The loss was partially attenuated by the net gain of 1,056,594 white immigrants.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-census-data-shows-the-nation-is-diversifying-even-faster-than-predicted/

figured it would be a year or two difference.  I had no idea.

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Yep
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This sort of outcome gives some sort of reason for optimism….but, being that it also shows 2) that vaccination is THE KEY…not A, THE…to beating this shit, and 2) 40% of America is too stupid to grasp point 1), we are and will remain some degree of fucked.

We are so, so, so stupid.
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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


This sort of outcome gives some sort of reason for optimism….but, being that it also shows 2) that vaccination is THE KEY…not A, THE…to beating this shit, and 2) 40% of America is too stupid to grasp point 1), we are and will remain some degree of fucked.

We are so, so, so stupid.

can't really gauge whether the differences in vaccine rates are enough to result in different paths at this time. they are at 126 doses per 100 people, we are 103.

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32 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


This sort of outcome gives some sort of reason for optimism….but, being that it also shows 2) that vaccination is THE KEY…not A, THE…to beating this shit, and 2) 40% of America is too stupid to grasp point 1), we are and will remain some degree of fucked.

We are so, so, so stupid.

UK vax rate is 56% and change.  Last I saw ours was something like 49+%, so not a massive difference, but the point is taken - nor are these rates indicative of those eligible, so there's that as well.  

 

 

Doses given
Fully vaccinated
% of population fully vaccinated
84.1M
84,100,000
37.5M
37,500,000
56.2%

 

Doses given
Fully vaccinated
% of population fully vaccinated
343M
343,000,000
+395K
+395,000
163M
163,000,000
+139K
+139,000
49.8%
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23 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Consider for a second how extremely lucky we were that delta variant didn't evolve earlier in the pandemic prior to vax availability. 

So you're saying that the......delta......between rates would be higher

maxresdefault.jpg

 

 

 

I'll see myself out.....

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2 hours ago, Lobo said:

^

that's a good point, statistically speaking.  If it includes "un-vaccinatable" children, that throws a good deal of that data set into chaos.  And it's not politically incorrect to point that out either.  I'm guessing folks who have immunization compromises are likely spread pretty evenly among the four groups.  But Asians and Whites just don't have as many children per capita/per household as Blacks and Hispanics. Census and anecdotal evidence tell us that's the case.  

It's okay though, Whites make up for part of the vaccine lag in other ways.  Like being Christian Scientists, Scientologists, and to some extent-the Amish, Mennonites, and Jehovah's Witness (which actually does have a large Hispanic membership).  Obviously not a significant skew as they total maybe 2-3 million in all, here in the U.S.  

Now, somewhere out there is an Amish Black family with 7 kids and they are skewing this shit big time! 

Ha!  I'll give you another skew.  I've got 3 relatives who are Christian Scientists.  All vaxxed.  Jury's still out for them on whether to take advil when they have a headache though. :)

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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

UK vax rate is 56% and change.  Last I saw ours was something like 49+%, so not a massive difference, but the point is taken - nor are these rates indicative of those eligible, so there's that as well.  

 

 

Doses given
Fully vaccinated
% of population fully vaccinated
84.1M
84,100,000
37.5M
37,500,000
56.2%

 

Doses given
Fully vaccinated
% of population fully vaccinated
343M
343,000,000
+395K
+395,000
163M
163,000,000
+139K
+139,000
49.8%

Probably more relevant than the UK's current vax rate, is where they were, when their most recent spike began on roughly June 1st.  At that time, their vax rate was 39.1%, ~26.07M.

 

Here in the US, our current spike began about a month later, roughly the 4th of July.  At that point, our vax rate was 47.9%, ~157.3M

 

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Quick scatter chart showing vaccination and current hospitalization rates for the 50 state plus DC and PR. There are outliers but the trend is clear. Don't get vaccinated, and your state #s go up. data source: NY Times.

 

 

Capture - Copy (2).JPG

probably doubles as a pretty good comorbidity chart

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Quick scatter chart showing vaccination and current hospitalization rates for the 50 state plus DC and PR. There are outliers but the trend is clear. Don't get vaccinated, and your state #s go up. data source: NY Times.

 

 

Capture - Copy (2).JPG

Look at Texas already being part of the SEC!

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5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Consider for a second how extremely lucky we were that delta variant didn't evolve earlier in the pandemic prior to vax availability. 

It would have been what happened to India

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4 hours ago, Hpara759 said:

Well....looks like I'm in good shape...got my "experimental" booster in April

And you're still alive? That's good to hear. 

In all seriousness, while more neutralizing antibodies are generally a good thing, it's not clear yet what the increase is in protective benefit. 

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12 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

While I don't doubt that vaccine hesitancy exists in the black community, this chart may be a little bit misleading.  It's based on total population, not vaccine-eligible population.  I'm pretty sure that overall, blacks and particularly hispanics have more children than whites or asians.  A large portion of those children cannot get vaccinated and if you correct for that, the numbers would probably be closer together.  Maybe they accounted for that in the data, but it doesn't say they did.

Births per woman by race in the US, as of 2019:

  • Hispanic: 1.94
  • Black (non-Hispanic): 1.77
  • White: 1.61
  • Asian: 1.51

You are correct that there is a difference, but I don't think there's enough of a gap to account for the vaccination differences.
 

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15 hours ago, Paper_jam said:

Maybe we should make an aerosolized, inhalable form of the vaccine(s) and just crop dust the shit out of certain states with it.

Just make a variant of the vax so that people with it can create their own aerosolized version internally and spread it on their own.  I have a few theories on how to make this could happen...

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