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Markets still falling like whoa


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LOL, this was good to see, if only to buffer the next big down day a bit...

The market seems intent on blowing one way or the other based on the latest headlines.  Long term fundamentals are sound and I don't see a recession unless Trade Policy forces us there - and luckily the fed likely has a life raft for us with a drop in rates.  

Too many words to say who the fuck knows, but long term, we're all golden.  Unless you're army brat you probably shouldn't worry or try to time jumping in and out. 

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It’s been a good week so I wrote covered calls today on DIS. $145 August 16, $2.25 per contract. 

This trade is in the range of what I’ve been looking for: ~7% return over today’s value for 70 days. I’m a total novice so I manually input these values into excel to find what I’m looking for. I would love to hear if people automate their models with real-time inputs, or if they use tools. This is something I’ve had in back of mind for years, but not seriously investigated. 

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Well, assume the calls are priced correctly.  A 20 delta call option has a 20% chance of expiring in the money (and a ~ 40% chance of getting hit some time before expiration).  Is it worth it for you to bank a little extra cash on the regular but risk the inability to take part in a big pop to the upside?  For most people, it is (although most people don't write covered calls, and I doubt many even know they exist).  It's been awhile but there are studies and even ETFs that mimic covered call writing at something like 2% out of the money, and they tend to outperform the index, at least in certain circumstances.  They definitely reduce volatility.

If I had the discipline to focus on that play, I'd probably write the 20 delta calls and roll up and out (taking the loss on the option but maintaining upside on the underlying) if they go in the money prior to expiration.  That's not advice, though, it just feels somewhat prudent.  I think.

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, assume the calls are priced correctly.  A 20 delta call option has a 20% chance of expiring in the money (and a ~ 40% chance of getting hit some time before expiration).  Is it worth it for you to bank a little extra cash on the regular but risk the inability to take part in a big pop to the upside?  For most people, it is (although most people don't write covered calls, and I doubt many even know they exist).  It's been awhile but there are studies and even ETFs that mimic covered call writing at something like 2% out of the money, and they tend to outperform the index, at least in certain circumstances.  They definitely reduce volatility.

If I had the discipline to focus on that play, I'd probably write the 20 delta calls and roll up and out (taking the loss on the option but maintaining upside on the underlying) if they go in the money prior to expiration.  That's not advice, though, it just feels somewhat prudent.  I think.

JJ, appreciate the thoughts.  What do you mean by a 20 delta?  Help me with the definition  

 

As as I said I’m not a pro, just picking what I view as reasonable 2 month return. And I like collecting the time decay. This example fits what I’m typically looking for in terms of percentages. 

 

What would be a 20 delta on VTI?  I’ve not sold covered on ETF, but would love to as I can write many more. 

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20 delta means the price of the call is expected to move 20% as much as the underlying stock/ETF.  So, if the underlying moves up $1.00 per share, you should expect the price of the call to move up $0.20 (X 100 = $20 total on your investment per call option).

If you're doing covered calls, you're SHORTING the call option, which means if the underlying moves up $1.00 you lose $0.20 (X100 = $20 per call) on the call.

Also, as the underlying moves up, your call moves closer to "in the money", meaning what started out as a 20 delta option might now be a 30 delta option.  Its value will swing more wildly with moves in the underlying.  

As you indicated, there is the theta -- the "time decay".  Your call options that were shorted above the price of the underlying will expire worthless if the underlying is below the strike price when the options expire.  That's good for you, because you shorted the options.  You want them to expire worthless.

There are a bunch more "Greeks" related to different derivatives of the price of the option with respect to (for instance) the delta, the volatility, etc.  If all you're going to do is stick to writing covered calls by picking options that have strike prices above the price of the underlying stock/ETF when you take on the trade, you probably don't NEED to know all of the math behind it, but rest assured, it's there, it's not simple, and it's why Goldman Sachs hires PhD math guys straight out of school.

Know this:  there is a small but real chance your stock may be purchased from you at the strike price of the call if the stock goes above that strike price.  You'll still make your profit (the price of the call when you shorted it) but you'll lose your covered stock shares.  If the stock is above the strike when the call expires, you will surely lose your shares.  What do you do then?  Well, you can buy them back, but you may have incurred a tax event in the meantime.  Talk to your broker.

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17 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

What would be a 20 delta on VTI?  I’ve not sold covered on ETF, but would love to as I can write many more. 

Forgot to answer this:

It depends on what expiration you're looking at.

 

June calls:  $148 = 23.6 delta

July calls:  $150 = 21.9 delta

September calls:  $154 = 19.6 delta

 

Basically, the market is saying there is an 80% chance VTI will be below $148 (June 21), $150 (July 19), $154 (Sep 20).

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Others disagree, but in my view, there is little difference between paying theta and accruing theta.  Properly-priced options make the payout the same.  You need an edge to make money, and systematically shorting out of the money calls is not an edge.  You'll make a small gain on the option 80% of the time and take it in the shorts (to varying degrees) 20% of the time, sometimes catastrophically.  (This isn't possible with covered calls, because you always have the shares to deliver when the value of the short call skyrockets because it went in the money.  You have effectively hedged the short calls with long stock.)

Short the option or long the option, delta tells the market's view on where the underlying will be at expiration.  A long call at 20 delta has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't pay much for it and the upside is huge if in fact the underlying shoots up.  A short call at 20 delta also has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't make much if the underlying doesn't move up and potentially get crushed if the underlying shoots up.  It's all risk/reward.

An added flavor is the concept of being short gamma if you're short theta.  Gamma is the sensitivity of delta to price.  Say you have some room between the current price of the stock and the strike of that short call.  When the underlying starts to inch up, you "gain" value on the short call due to theta decay, but you lose value due to gamma effects.  You're picking up delta (absolute value), which is bad when you're short delta.  It's the curvature of the P/L curve.

 

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13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Others disagree, but in my view, there is little difference between paying theta and accruing theta.  Properly-priced options make the payout the same.  You need an edge to make money, and systematically shorting out of the money calls is not an edge.  You'll make a small gain on the option 80% of the time and take it in the shorts (to varying degrees) 20% of the time, sometimes catastrophically.  (This isn't possible with covered calls, because you always have the shares to deliver when the value of the short call skyrockets because it went in the money.  You have effectively hedged the short calls with long stock.)

Short the option or long the option, delta tells the market's view on where the underlying will be at expiration.  A long call at 20 delta has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't pay much for it and the upside is huge if in fact the underlying shoots up.  A short call at 20 delta also has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't make much if the underlying doesn't move up and potentially get crushed if the underlying shoots up.  It's all risk/reward.

An added flavor is the concept of being short gamma if you're short theta.  Gamma is the sensitivity of delta to price.  Say you have some room between the current price of the stock and the strike of that short call.  When the underlying starts to inch up, you "gain" value on the short call due to theta decay, but you lose value due to gamma effects.  You're picking up delta (absolute value), which is bad when you're short delta.  It's the curvature of the P/L curve.

 

You are prob right. However I’ve had very bad experiences early on in my trading career buying out of the money calls. 

So I moved to selling puts and calls a number of years ago. It’s only on a small percentage of my portfolio and I only do a handful of these a year. However, I view it as real life learning that I can apply the rest of my life. Hopefully I can get better over the decades; you’ve helped me this week for sure!  

Also I don’t view missing out on a huge upside as a big loss, of course it will annoy. Instead I view it as defining a sell strategy for a profit which is a good problem to have. Otherwise I don’t have a sell strategy, just hold to infinity?  I’m really bad at locking in gains when they happen, sometimes letting an equity round trip to a buy point or worse. 

Another thing coming to mind with all your Greek definitions is to incorporate the options view into picking the equity to buy. If options maket are showing a really highly priced beta on an equity, probably a good equity to think about buying outright. 

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Anyone have an idea about DNR?  So long ago, maybe on Shaggy it was recommended, I got in and it had a nice pop up to mid-$6, then dropped and I re-established a position recently in the mid-$3 and now the bottom has fallen out.  Closed at $1.13-ish today.  

Cost average down and hope for a pop to get out or what do we think here?  Looking for any insight/advice on this.

Help me Surly-wan kenobi, you're my only hope. 

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Anyone have an idea about DNR?  So long ago, maybe on Shaggy it was recommended, I got in and it had a nice pop up to mid-$6, then dropped and I re-established a position recently in the mid-$3 and now the bottom has fallen out.  Closed at $1.13-ish today.  
Cost average down and hope for a pop to get out or what do we think here?  Looking for any insight/advice on this.
Help me Surly-wan kenobi, you're my only hope. 
Why would you get in a stock you know nothing about? What are their expenses relative to other operators? What is the debt and cap structure like vs other operators? Do they pay a dividend? These are some questions you might want to look into.
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11 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:
On 6/13/2019 at 11:24 AM, nycHorn said:
Anyone have an idea about DNR?  So long ago, maybe on Shaggy it was recommended, I got in and it had a nice pop up to mid-$6, then dropped and I re-established a position recently in the mid-$3 and now the bottom has fallen out.  Closed at $1.13-ish today.  
Cost average down and hope for a pop to get out or what do we think here?  Looking for any insight/advice on this.
Help me Surly-wan kenobi, you're my only hope. 

Why would you get in a stock you know nothing about? What are their expenses relative to other operators? What is the debt and cap structure like vs other operators? Do they pay a dividend? These are some questions you might want to look into.

That sounds like too much work.  Can't we get tjhooker to draw a bunch of squiggly lines on a chart and tell us the top and bottom within a couple of pennies?  That's a better plan.

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29 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Feels like we have done this level three or four times before.

 

 

Yeah, if we don't get too precise, it's the 2nd retest of Sep 2018 highs on the S&P 500.  It climbed slightly higher in early May, dropped and is now back to a fresh all-time high.

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This weekend will be telling. I have been out of the market since March ( amzn qqq and spy) after getting in back in December during all that craziness . I hate investing this way but I made a call in January 2018 to become much more conservative with my 401k and investment account and have been disciplined since then . I really feel like we are at the end of the bull run and I have only invested (almost) fully once since I got out of the market in 2018.

The way I see July playing out is if trump slaps tariffs on China this weekend the markets will finally realize there is a trade war going on. This however would give the fed ammunition to cut the fed rate 25 basis points in July . If trump slaps on tariffs and the fed holds in July then watch out . The other scenario is a truce this weekend which would stabilize the markets but would give the fed less ammo to cut rates in July . I think they would hold in that case. Powell has been pretty firm on the fed independence the last 2 conferences he has held . I think July is going to be very interesting . I will wait patiently.

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On 5/13/2019 at 2:34 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  That part I have no problem with if he’s just buying in on dip.  

Maybe im a dumbass but I’d be shocked if we don’t hit previous highs before the year is up.  Fundamentals still very strong.  

Certainly no genius but felt that trade noise was just a blip on the radar.  I had no idea we'd blow past previous highs in about 1.5 months.  Was nice layering in more all the way down and seeing this takeoff.  I don't see any slowdown until 2020 but it's already a good year even if we just meander around these levels.   

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On 6/25/2019 at 5:03 PM, UTGrad98 said:

This weekend will be telling. I have been out of the market since March ( amzn qqq and spy) after getting in back in December during all that craziness . I hate investing this way but I made a call in January 2018 to become much more conservative with my 401k and investment account and have been disciplined since then . I really feel like we are at the end of the bull run and I have only invested (almost) fully once since I got out of the market in 2018.

The way I see July playing out is if trump slaps tariffs on China this weekend the markets will finally realize there is a trade war going on. This however would give the fed ammunition to cut the fed rate 25 basis points in July . If trump slaps on tariffs and the fed holds in July then watch out . The other scenario is a truce this weekend which would stabilize the markets but would give the fed less ammo to cut rates in July . I think they would hold in that case. Powell has been pretty firm on the fed independence the last 2 conferences he has held . I think July is going to be very interesting . I will wait patiently.

How old are you - as in close to retirement?  Just crazy to me to try to time the market by jumping all in and out.  That's almost impossible to pull off.  Taking some profits when you hit highs, then buying back in on 1-3% drops, sure.  But just jumping all in and out?  Seems crazy. 

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1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

How old are you - as in close to retirement?  Just crazy to me to try to time the market by jumping all in and out.  That's almost impossible to pull off.  Taking some profits when you hit highs, then buying back in on 1-3% drops, sure.  But just jumping all in and out?  Seems crazy. 

I’m 44 . My wife and I have a plan to go part time at 48-50 and retire in full around 52-55 but really the bulk of our savings will be done in 4 more years . We save about 70 percent of our income each year and with an estimated 5 percent rate of return moving forward we will hit our goals . I have also been paying down our house so that it will be paid off in the next 4-6 years . I am a minimalist so i don’t need much . I drive a 12 year old corolla and my wife and I have good jobs . She works from home full time and I am full time in my field of study. 

i agree with you that it is stupid to time the market but it was just overwhelming for me to pull out most everything back in January of last year. In 2018 we made 2-3 percent return  between us while most everyone else lost around 6. I have made about 10 or so percent this year but right now I’m on the side lines . I guess my way of thinking is the bulk of our nest egg growth each month come from income not capital gains and I really believed back in 2018 that the ride this cycle was almost over . It is what it is . I don’t need a great return these last few years . If I can get a 10 percent return moving forward I can go part time 1 year earlier. That’s how I view it. 

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9 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I’m 44 . My wife and I have a plan to go part time at 48-50 and retire in full around 52-55 but really the bulk of our savings will be done in 4 more years . We save about 70 percent of our income each year and with an estimated 5 percent rate of return moving forward we will hit our goals . I have also been paying down our house so that it will be paid off in the next 4-6 years . I am a minimalist so i don’t need much . I drive a 12 year old corolla and my wife and I have good jobs . She works from home full time and I am full time in my field of study. 

i agree with you that it is stupid to time the market but it was just overwhelming for me to pull out most everything back in January of last year. In 2018 we made 2-3 percent return  between us while most everyone else lost around 6. I have made about 10 or so percent this year but right now I’m on the side lines . I guess my way of thinking is the bulk of our nest egg growth each month come from income not capital gains and I really believed back in 2018 that the ride this cycle was almost over . It is what it is . I don’t need a great return these last few years . If I can get a 10 percent return moving forward I can go part time 1 year earlier. That’s how I view it. 

I'm definitely not calling you stupid.  And I'm pretty aggressive, full disclosure.  Obviously not a FA but I would at the very least get into some triple A rated bonds while you pull out of equities. Remember lot of those are tax free muni's.  This is a rare year Bonds and stocks are both killing it.  I'd probably even suggest finding someone good to manage for you on 40-60 basis points.  They should very easily pay for themselves. 

Anyways, congrats on that plan and being disciplined enough to save 70%.  I'll stop being a Mom. 

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I have 30 percent of my 401k in VIGAX and the remaining 70 percent in a money market making around 2.25 percent . In my Roth IRA which has my lowest amount I am completely in SPY.  It’s my brokerage account where I am most active . Right now I am 70 percent money market at around 2.25 percent and 30 percent in PGX  etf making about 5.8 percent . 

As  I have said previously I got back in six months ago during the December correction and enjoyed a nice return putting my brokerage account savings in  amzn spy and qqq. I got out in March or April . I can’t remember . I am waiting for a recession to enter back in fully and forget it. I will either be right or wrong . The thing is with my plan I don’t really care . I will be fine if I am wrong. But if I’m right and we have another recession in the next year then I will be extremely happy. 

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6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

@UTGrad98 do you have kids. If so and you are putting back 70% towards retirement you get made respect. I mean either way really.  But super level up mad respect. 

 

We have a 7 year old boy . Part of that 70 percent savings rate is currently paying down extra on our house. Rereading my post above that isn’t clear . Paying it off at the rate I am doing it will save us 180k in interest . Fuck the banks and their front loaded interest bullshit. That alone gives me the drive to pay down as much as I do each month. 

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18 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

We have a 7 year old boy . Part of that 70 percent savings rate is currently paying down extra on our house. Rereading my post above that isn’t clear . Paying it off at the rate I am doing it will save us 180k in interest . Fuck the banks and their front loaded interest bullshit. That alone gives me the drive to pay down as much as I do each month. 

I admire your discipline. Well done. I just got the bill for soccers kits this next year for my three. 

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38 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I have 30 percent of my 401k in VIGAX and the remaining 70 percent in a money market making around 2.25 percent . In my Roth IRA which has my lowest amount I am completely in SPY.  It’s my brokerage account where I am most active . Right now I am 70 percent money market at around 2.25 percent and 30 percent in PGX  etf making about 5.8 percent . 

As  I have said previously I got back in six months ago during the December correction and enjoyed a nice return putting my brokerage account savings in  amzn spy and qqq. I got out in March or April . I can’t remember . I am waiting for a recession to enter back in fully and forget it. I will either be right or wrong . The thing is with my plan I don’t really care . I will be fine if I am wrong. But if I’m right and we have another recession in the next year then I will be extremely happy. 

Yep, very conservative but you're disciplined so no knocking that plan.  Good for you.  Congrats

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29 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

We have a 7 year old boy . Part of that 70 percent savings rate is currently paying down extra on our house. Rereading my post above that isn’t clear . Paying it off at the rate I am doing it will save us 180k in interest . Fuck the banks and their front loaded interest bullshit. That alone gives me the drive to pay down as much as I do each month. 

Yeah, you could make a lot more money by investing that money than “saving interest”.  By a long way 

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15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yeah, you could make a lot more money by investing that money than “saving interest”.  By a long way 

He thinks like my old man.  Who made less than 100k all his life but bought everything cash except house that he paid down fast.  

I roll the dice.  If my FA aren’t beating that 3% long term they’re gone.  

But more than one way to skin a cat and you can’t put a dollar amount on peace of mind.  

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12 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

He thinks like my old man.  Who made less than 100k all his life but bought everything cash except house that he paid down fast.  

I roll the dice.  If my FA aren’t beating that 3% long term they’re gone.  

But more than one way to skin a cat and you can’t put a dollar amount on peace of mind.  

No doubt.  A lot have done it that way.  Just saying that it doesn’t take much time to make that overpayment do more for you via investment than it does in saved interest payments.  The bank actually wants you to pay it back early because it allows them to lend more money out, meanwhile, those dollars you’ve paid have now lost any future value (aside from a modestly illiquid asset such as a house).  

 

Really cool book called ‘Don’t be Debt Free and Broke’ that I’d recommend to some people.  Not applying to you or UTG98, but it’s an interesting and straightforward breakdown on how banking works for people who don’t know how banking works.  

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24 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yeah, you could make a lot more money by investing that money than “saving interest”.  By a long way 

You are right but I have 2 points to make on that . The first is I am not having to deal with the stress of having all of my money invested in high risk high reward stocks at a time where I believe the market is on its last legs . Second is there is peace of mind that comes with having your house paid off. I can get there in 4 years if I stay the course . My job stresses me out enough . If we were 2-3 years into a recovery it would be different but we aren’t . We are 10. That may not mean anything this time but historically it does mean something . 

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9 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

You are right but I have 2 points to make on that . The first is I am not having to deal with the stress of having all of my money invested in high risk high reward stocks at a time where I believe the market is on its last legs . Second is there is peace of mind that comes with having your house paid off. I can get there in 4 years if I stay the course . My job stresses me out enough . If we were 2-3 years into a recovery it would be different but we aren’t . We are 10. That may not mean anything this time but historically it does mean something . 

I totally hear you, which is why I added the caveat in my reply to ChiTownDoc.  But I think you could put it in a mix of Walmart, Waste Management, and 2-3 others and cut risk but be invested and have a dividend yield that will fetch you most of your interest rate, if not cover it.    Wasn’t saying you’re wrong by any means.  Hell I wish I could put away as much as you’ve been 

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1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

You are right but I have 2 points to make on that . The first is I am not having to deal with the stress of having all of my money invested in high risk high reward stocks at a time where I believe the market is on its last legs . Second is there is peace of mind that comes with having your house paid off. I can get there in 4 years if I stay the course . My job stresses me out enough . If we were 2-3 years into a recovery it would be different but we aren’t . We are 10. That may not mean anything this time but historically it does mean something . 

I paid off my house last year. Let me tell you, awesome feeling. I highly recommend it to anyone. 

I don’t like the idea of market timing at all. I’ve never done it with much success except maybe 1-2% of my portfolio. I’m ballz deep 95% equities, the rest bonds and 6 months cash. I’m young enough to welcome any pullback, especially with no mortgage. Just gets me to buy more, which I did in last week, and will do more this month, and next, etc.

last buys were NVDA...small pop so far this week, and I wrote $175 August calls for $4.50ish (closed today $162ish). Seems a pretty rich return for a few months time.  

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