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Markets still falling like whoa


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9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

Call it what you want but.......I stole this from the folks at Stockcharts.com. It’s a table showing average pre-holiday results over the last 50 years.

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, the average yearly return for the stock market is not 31 fucking percent over the last 50 years.  But that's basically what the table is saying if'n you buy two days before the New Year and sell at the end of the year.

But but he saw it in the internet it must be true!

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17 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

I thought that's what the BRRRRRRRRRT was for?

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19 hours ago, Baconboy said:

CSB: 4 or 5 years ago when NVDA was at like $38/share I got one of those typical cold calls from a fresh-out-of-school kid with a strong NY accent begging me to listen to his one tip and if it worked out promise I'd give him more to invest. His whole pitch was about NVDA and for the first time ever I thought to myself, "this pitch actually makes sense." I of course did nothing.

That's probably about the same time I bought PBT, which I'm still holding. Stonks!

I bought 2000 shares of NVDA in my Dad’s acct at 27 for the same reasons.  Sold them at 51, and used some of the money to buy AMD at 4. Sold the AMD at 12.  Jesus what I’d do to still have those positions 

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3 hours ago, hornbri said:

Yeah, it does not make much sense at all. 

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading_strategies:the_pre-holiday_effect

Dataset is also 1928 to 1975. Still doesnt make any sense to me. For example:

Quote

To put those returns in perspective, if you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 Index in January 1928 and sold it all in December 1975, you would have ended up with $51,441. However, if you had invested one-ninth of your money just before each pre-holiday period (selling everything at the end of the year), you would have finished with $1,440,716. Not bad!

 

Edited by Blotto
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3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I bought 2000 shares of NVDA in my Dad’s acct at 27 for the same reasons.  Sold them at 51, and used some of the money to buy AMD at 4. Sold the AMD at 12.  Jesus what I’d do to still have those positions 

Based on my math, if you'd have found some other money to buy those AMD shares instead of selling your NVDA, you'd have changed your $54,000 NVDA and $102,000 AMD into $722,000 in NVDA + $1,406,000 in AMD = $2,128,000.  

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32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

checks in on futures...

 

 
American biotech company Novavax said Monday it started the first human study of its experimental coronavirus vaccine. The company said it expects initial results on safety and immune responses in July.  
 
 
Edited by LTtxfan
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On 5/22/2020 at 12:37 AM, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

Beijing could drop bombs on HK this morning and the US markets would rise 10%.  There is no logic any longer to this market other than a crap shoot.

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Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

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4 minutes ago, Southland said:

Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

if you wanted to get fucked out of your hard-earned money, you should just get married

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6 hours ago, Southland said:

A) I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

B)Also, otherthan the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

A) Stonk investors don't do that analysis.

B) If you are right, options will give you more upside to balance the 100% downside

 

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10 hours ago, Southland said:

Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

Free Resource with training/webinars on options:  The Options Industry Council (OIC)

OIC is an industry resource supported by OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) to provide trustworthy education about the benefits and risks of exchange-listed options.   Since 1992, OIC has been dedicated to increasing the awareness, knowledge and responsible use of options by individual investors, financial advisors and institutional managers.

https://www.optionseducation.org 

 

Also here's an article on simulators you can practice trading options on without any risk of losing money.... (OIC has a simulator on their website)

https://www.personalincome.org/best-options-trading-simulator-2020/

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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On 5/22/2020 at 12:37 AM, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

Chinese shenanigans you say?  Those were priced in, bro.  
 

But seriously, I called a rally here through summer a little over a week ago.  And I also admit that call would be the death knell for said rally.  Loaded up on some index funds and crossed my fingers.  That’s the best strategy these days.  To the moon!

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I wish someone could explain how we could rally in the stock market while at historically high unemployment numbers that are still getting worse. Just breaks every basic assumption on how markets work, the engine of consumption is shrinking so why is the market growing, if this isn't all just a bubble?

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2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I wish someone could explain how we could rally in the stock market while at historically high unemployment numbers that are still getting worse. Just breaks every basic assumption on how markets work, the engine of consumption is shrinking so why is the market growing, if this isn't all just a bubble?

It will run to fall and crash because the only thing not priced in is the next flare up.  The next flare up is science.  Zero way it’s not happening when it gets cold.  

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1 minute ago, Captainant said:

I wish someone could explain how we could rally in the stock market while at historically high unemployment numbers that are still getting worse. Just breaks every basic assumption on how markets work, the engine of consumption is shrinking so why is the market growing, if this isn't all just a bubble?

In theory, investment cash has to go somewhere. Since interest rates are so low people don't want their money in banks/bonds. You can invest in real estate but that's not very liquid and the market is saturated, so your choice is "sit on the sidelines" or equities. Investors don't want to sit on the sidelines because they fear "missing out" on the jump. 

It's really just psychological and has little to do with the actual strength of the markets.

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In theory, investment cash has to go somewhere. Since interest rates are so low people don't want their money in banks/bonds. You can invest in real estate but that's not very liquid and the market is saturated, so your choice is "sit on the sidelines" or equities. Investors don't want to sit on the sidelines because they fear "missing out" on the jump. 
It's really just psychological and has little to do with the actual strength of the markets.


aka TINA.
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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

In theory, investment cash has to go somewhere. Since interest rates are so low people don't want their money in banks/bonds. You can invest in real estate but that's not very liquid and the market is saturated, so your choice is "sit on the sidelines" or equities. Investors don't want to sit on the sidelines because they fear "missing out" on the jump. 

It's really just psychological and has little to do with the actual strength of the markets.

arent bond values actually going up, even low-interest bearing ones, because market interest rates are dropping. 

i dont have data that shows capital flows... but i imagine thats a healthy market right now

 

jamie, pull that shit up

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6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What bad do you think it'll flare up in the fall?

Imo it will be worse.  
 

One, some places should have opened up sooner - like Chicago where hospitals have plenty of capacity but we are still stuck with nothing open - so when they say lockdown a second time nobody will listen. 

Two, coronaviruses tend to wreak more havoc in cold weather anyway and there’s very little herd immunity, which could have helped mitigate the second wave.  

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4 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Imo it will be worse.  
 

One, some places should have opened up sooner - like Chicago where hospitals have plenty of capacity but we are still stuck with nothing open - so when they say lockdown a second time nobody will listen. 

Two, coronaviruses tend to wreak more havoc in cold weather anyway and there’s very little herd immunity, which could have helped mitigate the second wave.  

Okay - but can you give us some insight on this most important of specific questions?


Will the 2nd wave come late enough to allow college football?
(asking for a friend - a Surly friend)

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11 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Okay - but can you give us some insight on this most important of specific questions?


Will the 2nd wave come late enough to allow college football?
(asking for a friend - a Surly friend)

I sure as fuck hope so - or at least get plenty of games in and resume in spring.   It beats no football.  

Or better yet, I'm totally wrong and there's not second wave and we get the entire season in.  I would much rather have the shame of being wrong, vs no cfb. 

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