Jump to content

2018 NFL Draft


Machinator

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, slorch said:

by the same token, if your game changers like JJWatt, ezekiel Elliott, or the oft discussed Jalen Ramsey are out there, why not go a different direction with QB?

 

There are only so many game changers.  It's been proven time and time again that the big shot Top pick QB who becomes the franchise is damned near a unicorn.

Showing off that Tech education, eh slorch?

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17273200/draft-quarterback-value-top-three-picks-success-rate

 

Quote

Every draft in this decade besides 2013 has included a quarterback being taken in the top three. Three times in the past six years, there have been QBs taken first and second, something that happened only six times in the history of the draft before this decade. And it’s plausible that this year could be the second in which the top three picks are all quarterbacks. After Thursday night, this decade should safely count the most top-three quarterback picks of any decade, and the most top-10 and top-15 quarterback picks of any decade as well.

It seems too early to offer Hall of Fame predictions, but there haven’t been any players among these picks who have washed out of the league. Of the 10 top-three QBs picked this decade, only Robert Griffin III isn’t currently an NFL starter, and he was Offensive Rookie of the Year before suffering a litany of injuries, so it seems odd to say scouts whiffed on him. (Early results on Jared Goff are good; the book is out on Mitchell Trubisky.)

Edited by Message Board User
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty great article from the Ringer today.  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/25/17277580/draft-qb-thoughts-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson-josh-allen

"A college football fan offers his thoughts on Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and the rest of the NFL’s incoming quarterback class"

Here's the first paragraph. It's super long, so I'm not going to post the whole thing: 

I don’t understand how the NFL draft works. I am but a simple-minded college football fan, a harebrained fool who wastes my life watching an inferior sports product. Because my mind cannot comprehend the complexity of the National Football League, I spend draft season conjuring stupid thoughts like “Hey, why do NFL people think Mitch Trubisky is better than Deshaun Watson?”; “Hey, why don’t NFL people have faith in Russell Wilson?”; “Hey, why do NFL people believe Blake Bortles is good?”; and “Hey, why are NFL people so enamored of Christian Hackenberg?

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

Pretty great article from the Ringer today.  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/25/17277580/draft-qb-thoughts-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson-josh-allen

"A college football fan offers his thoughts on Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and the rest of the NFL’s incoming quarterback class"

Here's the first paragraph. It's super long, so I'm not going to post the whole thing: 

I don’t understand how the NFL draft works. I am but a simple-minded college football fan, a harebrained fool who wastes my life watching an inferior sports product. Because my mind cannot comprehend the complexity of the National Football League, I spend draft season conjuring stupid thoughts like “Hey, why do NFL people think Mitch Trubisky is better than Deshaun Watson?”; “Hey, why don’t NFL people have faith in Russell Wilson?”; “Hey, why do NFL people believe Blake Bortles is good?”; and “Hey, why are NFL people so enamored of Christian Hackenberg?

 

Good article.  Here it is in full if you don't want to click through:

Spoiler

Baker Mayfield Should Be the Top Pick in the 2018 Draft

A college football fan offers his thoughts on Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and the rest of the NFL’s incoming quarterback class

By Rodger Sherman  Apr 25, 2018, 5:50am EDT
 

mayfield_jackson_top_2_getty_ringer.0.jpgGetty Images/Ringer illustration

I don’t understand how the NFL draft works. I am but a simple-minded college football fan, a harebrained fool who wastes my life watching an inferior sports product. Because my mind cannot comprehend the complexity of the National Football League, I spend draft season conjuring stupid thoughts like “Hey, why do NFL people think Mitch Trubisky is better than Deshaun Watson?”; “Hey, why don’t NFL people have faith in Russell Wilson?”; “Hey, why do NFL people believe Blake Bortles is good?”; and “Hey, why are NFL people so enamored of Christian Hackenberg?

Obviously, these are the thoughts of an unsophisticated mind, too fickle to understand that the surest way to be good at football is to make The Most 6-Foot-5 White Guy Imaginable an NFL team’s starting quarterback. Because my draft predictions are so hilariously misguided, The Ringer’s editors have asked me to publish them so I can be roundly mocked by the public. Here are the NFL draft takes of a person who idiotically watches the sport that potentially draftable players play, rather than showing up at the combine to write about which players have questionable attitudes.

Baker Mayfield Is My Obvious QB1

Mayfield is a college football legend. He had the most efficient season in college football history as a junior; he then broke his own record by having the most efficient season in college football history as a senior. He is offense incarnate, a fury perpetually flinging the ball to hit receivers in open space.

And the only thing more fun than Mayfield’s actual play in college was his perpetual belief that others constantly doubted him. He literally made lists of all the people he felt had wronged him, like a slightly taller Taylor Swift. (Apparently, he still makes those lists.) He played with so many chips on his shoulder that it’s a miracle he was even capable of throwing a football.

He began his college career upset about his lack of scholarship offers, then emerged as a standout at Texas Tech, becoming the first walk-on to start a power conference team’s season opener as a true freshman. A few months later, he got mad about how he was treated in Lubbock and built a new narrative around how nobody thought he could cut it at Oklahoma. Once again, he walked onto the program; once again, he displaced the established starter (Trevor Knight) on his way to becoming a star.

By the end of Mayfield’s Sooners career, he was the undisputed best player in the country, and no one could doubt him anymore. He needed to create spur-of-the-moment beefs with random schools like Kansas to work himself into fits of dick-grabbing rage. (And who can forget his flag plant at Ohio State, an over-the-top celebration meant as revenge on a significantly less egregious celebration the year before?) He won last year’s Heisman Trophy, and I think he would have won the national title, too, if Oklahoma’s defense had been competent enough to avoid giving up 54 points in the Rose Bowl.

There are several scouting knocks against Mayfield. He’s shorter than most NFL QBs; he’s brash, and some wonder whether he’ll get along with coaches and teammates. The knock that holds the most water from an NFL perspective is that he’s a “system” quarterback, since he played in an Air Raid offense, which inflates passing numbers and only asks quarterbacks to throw to wide-open receivers. (IMO, more teams should run offenses in which the receivers get so open that you can’t even tell whether the QB is good.)

But as a college fan, I’d like to counter with two points. First, Jared Goff, Case Keenum, and Patrick Mahomes II—all Air Raid guys—looked good in the NFL this season. (Mahomes just briefly, but there’s a reason the Chiefs traded Alex Smith to Washington.) There have been prominent misses, like Brandon Weeden and Tim Couch, but an offensive system doesn’t preclude a quarterback from being immensely talented.

Secondly, many college teams have run the Air Raid throughout history, and nobody has ever raided the air quite like Mayfield. The failures of others shouldn’t cast a shadow on a player who was simply better than anyone who came before him.

Mayfield’s stats are absurd. He had the best passer rating on throws from a clean pocket and the best passer rating on throws under pressure; the best passer rating on quick throws and the best rating on throws after holding onto the ball; the best passer rating on play-action throws and—huge red flag coming—the second-best rating on non-play-action attempts.

I think Mayfield should be the first quarterback drafted on Thursday night, but his stock presents a Catch-22: If he goes no. 1 overall, what will he have to be mad about? The key to unlocking his full potential is to have him go no. 2 or later, being passed over in favor of other, taller QBs.

Lamar Jackson Isn’t Far Behind Mayfield

I keep seeing Jackson listed as the fifth-best quarterback in this draft class, after (in some order) Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen. I can’t imagine watching college football over the past few years and coming away thinking that Jackson is the fifth best of those players at anything.

If Mayfield is the QB who was best at distributing the ball to his teammates, Jackson was the best at scoring his damn self. Lacking a strong supporting cast, he became a one-man show for Louisville, tallying 51 total touchdowns en route to a runaway Heisman Trophy victory as a sophomore and adding a piddly 45 touchdowns as a junior. One of my favorite games from the past few seasons was Clemson’s 42-36 win over Louisville in 2016, a high-flying duel between Jackson and Deshaun Watson. They combined for 854 yards of total offense and eight touchdowns.

For some reason, NFL scouts seem to believe that a quarterback’s ability to run the football effectively amounts to evidence that said QB is not good at passing. Watson’s success as a rookie was a rebuke of that. And yet here we are: Jackson is a gifted passer, and a former NFL general manager went on TV to say that he should play receiver because he also happens to be fast.

Personally, I think it’s a bonus that Jackson can not only throw a football well—something few humans on the planet are capable of!—but also can hurdle people, dodge sprinting defenders with ease, and outrun anybody pesky enough to try to pressure him. Sometimes quarterbacks have to do those things—in fact, it can be a very useful part of modern NFL strategy!

I Have No Idea What the Josh Allen Hype Is About

I keep waiting for the joke to end—for NFL draft analysts to collectively say “Gotcha!” and for all of us to laugh about the time they really convinced everyone that Wyoming’s Josh Allen could be the no. 1 overall pick. But now we’re a day out from the draft, and a player who was not on any list of the top quarterbacks in college football is still considered by some to be the most sought-after prospect in the sport.

Don’t get me wrong: I have nothing against players from small schools. Quite the opposite, in fact: I love when amazing players lift up programs that are typically out of the spotlight. You think college fans like watching Alabama win every year? Hell no, man. What makes the sport great is its endless variety—130 FBS teams doing ridiculous things to succeed.

My issue with Allen isn’t that he hails from a Mountain West school; it’s that nothing about his college career ever hinted at his being spectacular. Look at the history of great quarterbacks from small schools and it’s clear that most were consistently brilliant on campus. Carson Wentz was an FCS god at North Dakota State; Ben Roethlisberger all but invented #MACtion at Miami (Ohio); Derek Carr exploded scoreboards at Fresno State; Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Flacco were FCS stars. Meanwhile, Allen arguably held Wyoming back: Although the Cowboys defense was exceptional, leading the nation in turnovers and finishing ninth in points allowed, the team finished 126th in total offense and 97th in yards per passing attempt.

It is impossible to find a stat that makes Allen look good. SB Nation’s Jason Kirk wrote a full rundown recently, and the results are brutal. Allen’s 2017 completion percentage was 56.3; as Football Outsiders notes, the most successful quarterback since 2005 who was taken within a draft’s first 100 picks and posted a final-year college completion percentage below 58 is Jake Locker. In QBASE, an advanced stat, Allen scored below zero, giving him a ceiling of “Josh McCown or Brian Griese.” Bill Connelly’s success rate stat gives Allen a ceiling of Ryan Mallett. Wyoming’s passing S&P+ during Allen’s senior year was 119th of 130 FBS teams; that would be the lowest of any player ever drafted in the top 100 picks.

Allen throws passes off target more than any recent top QB prospect, with DeShone Kizer and Christian Hackenberg not far behind. The other top 2018 quarterback prospects all have passer ratings under pressure well above the FBS average; Allen’s is well below that mark. He is the worst quarterback in the draft on short throws, medium throws, and long throws. He throws more interceptable passes than any other prospect in this class. And it isn’t his receivers’ fault, either—they dropped fewer passes than the receivers of any other heralded 2018 draft QB.

After watching the tape, I don’t get it. Allen misses so many easy throws! He throws it to places where there are no targets whatsoever! The only player I’ve seen miss throws like this is Hackenberg—whose ugly college stats were also blamed on poor teammates—and well, I have plenty of receipts on that.

I don’t get it. I don’t get it! I understand that Allen is tall and strong. But why is being strong more valuable for a quarterback than being able to throw a football to a teammate? Are we really supposed to believe that being bad at throwing is fixable, but other quarterbacks’ arm strengths are locked firmly into place? I don’t get why teams are considering Allen as a Day 2 pick, let alone a first-round pick, let alone the first quarterback taken, let alone the first overall player on the board. Isn’t that a huge, ridiculous risk, especially when there are more proven options available?

Every year, I watch NFL draft folks ignore productive college players and hype prospects I never would have thought of as having pro potential. And most of the time, when I think everything through, I can see where they’re coming from. My favorite players are flawed; scouts can notice weaknesses that I’ve long overlooked. And as much as I want to sound like I’m above it all, NFL people are often right, and I’m often wrong. (I was huge into Johnny Manziel and [speaks in a small voice so people can’t hear] Geno Smith.)

But I’ll never understand NFL people less than when they talk about Josh Allen. I don’t even know where the idea of him going no. 1 came from, let alone why so people are choosing to vehemently stick with it. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

Pretty great article from the Ringer today.  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/25/17277580/draft-qb-thoughts-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson-josh-allen

"A college football fan offers his thoughts on Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and the rest of the NFL’s incoming quarterback class"

Here's the first paragraph. It's super long, so I'm not going to post the whole thing: 

I don’t understand how the NFL draft works. I am but a simple-minded college football fan, a harebrained fool who wastes my life watching an inferior sports product. Because my mind cannot comprehend the complexity of the National Football League, I spend draft season conjuring stupid thoughts like “Hey, why do NFL people think Mitch Trubisky is better than Deshaun Watson?”; “Hey, why don’t NFL people have faith in Russell Wilson?”; “Hey, why do NFL people believe Blake Bortles is good?”; and “Hey, why are NFL people so enamored of Christian Hackenberg?

 

 

The same guy likely wondered why OU would bother to take a lowly Tech walk-on transfer when they could just get a 5 star recruit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Browns can have the first 5 picks in a row and they would muck it up somehow. Whichever of the QBs don't go to Cleveland and the NY Jets will have decent careers.

Baker Mayfield will be Manziel 2.0 over there. They didn't learn a thing. What a complete shit show that franchise is. They'll be picking 1 overall again next year and we will be here again.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/24/2018 at 12:05 PM, Sgt Hulk said:

I just really look forward to seeing how dallas is going to let me down again.  That’s what I want to know 

Probably by taking the Maryland Receiver in the 1st. I'd rather they get help on defense with their first, you can still get a solid receiver in the 2nd round IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the Browns draft Rosen with the first overall pick he should send a check for a million to Texas A&M for pumping his stock with that epic meldown. It's the thing that every Rosen pumper mentions.

What they fail to see is EVERYBODY does that to aggy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

Interesting on the Browns. From what I’ve heard, the only QB the Giants like is Darnold so it’ll be interesting to see if they take him if Baker goes 1.

Guy who's been covering the Giants for almost 40 years said this morning on The Horn 104.9 that he thinks the Giants will take Barkley. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Guy who's been covering the Giants for almost 40 years said this morning on The Horn 104.9 that he thinks the Giants will take Barkley. 

Interesting. I heard Michael Lombardi on the Ringer podcast saying he expects them to take Chubb because they have certain positions they value and RB isn't one of them. Personally, I hope the Giants take a QB, so its starts the run on QBs right away. Id' love to see like three teams trying to trade into the top 10 because 3 QBs have already been taken in the top 5 picks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

When did Darnold become a good QB? 

When did any of these guys become good QBs? It seems like none of the QB prospects are all that great but since none can separate from the others, teams have started to act like there's a bunch of QBs worth being taken at the top of the 1st. Kind of reminds me of 2011 when Locker, Ponder, and Gabbert were all taken in the top 12, except that year Cam Newton was actually a QB worth taking #1 overall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, DougO said:

At birth.

Darnold is the only QB I would consider taking with the first overall pick. I can't see any logical justification for the Browns picking anyone but Darnold, Barkley or Chubb.

He definitely has the fewest flaws followed by Rosen. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Guy who's been covering the Giants for almost 40 years said this morning on The Horn 104.9 that he thinks the Giants will take Barkley. 

Having been a Giant's fan for 30+ years, I can tell you this. At some point, they will pick a TE from Notre Dame/Penn State whoever the hell that is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, UT Lawnghorn said:

When did any of these guys become good QBs? It seems like none of the QB prospects are all that great but since none can separate from the others, teams have started to act like there's a bunch of QBs worth being taken at the top of the 1st. Kind of reminds me of 2011 when Locker, Ponder, and Gabbert were all taken in the top 12, except that year Cam Newton was actually a QB worth taking #1 overall.

I agree with the 2011 comparison. 

Darnold has been hyped since his first game at USC. He has flashes of greatness, but he's never progressed past that stage to anything consistent. He will start in the NFL, then after a few middling years, and many picks later, people will realize they need someone a little better. He will follow the long lineage of overhyped USC QBs and be a backup somewhere. 

I like Rosen better than Darnold, but he's not blowing my socks up either. If we are following the "we have to take a QB high" mantra, I'd take him. 

I will mock any team that takes Mayfield. His was a good running QB in college, not elite. His running in the NFL will be negated like most running QBs. Then he will have to use his arm to move the ball without a dominant OL. Yeah, I expect to enjoy watching that train wreck happen. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, DougO said:

If the Browns draft Rosen with the first overall pick he should send a check for a million to Texas A&M for pumping his stock with that epic meldown. It's the thing that every Rosen pumper mentions.

What they fail to see is EVERYBODY does that to aggy.

No. A lot of teams do things to aggy, its true. But I think we should all take the time to appreciate that what Rosen did to aggy was special. That game was pure art, which I think, will be remembered by us all. I know I will.

In my heart lies a beast. Chosen Rosen ❤️ 

Now go rot in Cleveland you magnificent son of a bitch.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Amobie said:

He definitely has the fewest flaws followed by Rosen. 

Rosen will be a heartbreaker that always looks special, then makes the dumbest throw you ever saw and looks...special.

Jay Cutler 2: Electric Boogaloo

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Cleveland takes a QB at 1, it should be Darnold or Rosen. Rosen is the most ready to play coming out of college, and he could bring stability to the team that makes everyone around him better. Darnold needs work, but he has above-average arm talent and the ability to suceed off-schedule, which would likely be needed on a (perpetually) rebuilding team like the Browns.

Allen is not a first-round QB, but he will be taken there because NFL scouts love his athletic traits and will convince themselves they can fix the rest. He will need a year or two to be ready to start, and even then it's going to need to be the right situation, which is only a few places.

I don't like Mayfield as a top overall pick, but not necessarily for the same reasons that many people here do. I just think his ceiling isn't high enough as a player. I think if he fell to the Saints that could be really interesting, but that's not going to happen.

Lamar Jackson is the wild card. A forward-thinking GM and head coach could turn him into a star - would be fun to see what Sean McVay would do with him if they didn't already have Jared Goff. Or, he could go to some franchise that tries to turn him into something he's not and he flounders.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, pearlandhorn said:

I’m most interested in where Lamar Jackson goes. Reminds me of a quicker more athletic Russell Wilson. The kid can sure sling the ball around.

M pretty shocked he’s not rated higher. After seeing what Watson did an offense catered to his skill set. Like Machinator said, the team that takes Jim will be very important to how he pans out. Whoever it is, has to adopt college schemes, like the Eagles and Texans did last year, otherwise he probably won’t work out nearly as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we all hate Baker Mayfield, because he is a shitbag, but as a prospect, he is much better than Allen. I really can’t believe Josh Allen is being considered a first round pick, let alone a possible top pick. Shane Buechelle is better than Josh Fucking Allen. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would rate them:

1) Darnold - Highest floor, no idea about ceiling. That fucking drive against Texas to send it into OT still gives me nightmares.
2) Mayfield - Might make something happen if the situation is right, more likely to get hurt or implode. He may show flashes.
3) Rosen - Been overhyped his whole career, maybe he can carve out a nice career as a backup in the NFL
4) Allen - I don't get it. Another guy with all the measurables and no skins. He would have a chance if he fell late into the 1st and got picked up by a team who will sit him for 2 years.

 

I'm not crazy about any of them, but for full disclosure I was certain that Matt Ryan was going to be shit in the NFL. So whatever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

 

I just don't get how it's not a "thing" to scrub your entire twitter profile as soon as you realize you will probably be drafted someday.  Even more inexcusable is that scrubbing social media history is not the first thing an agent does after signing a player..  Failure to do that should be agent malpractice, yet we get these year after year .

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

ersonally, I hope the Giants take a QB, so its starts the run on QBs right away. Id' love to see like three teams trying to trade into the top 10 because 3 QBs have already been taken in the top 5 picks.

Agreed. I love watching position runs with everyone scrambling to get into the mix while the getting is good.  Its more interesting than just waiting for the next pick to be turned in.

The Giants taking a QB could also be the best case scenario for the Browns.  Their number four pick then becomes even more coveted by that franchise trying to jump into the QB run, or steal Saquon Barkley, or Bradley Chubb.  The Saints are now alleged to be looking to move into the QB mix.  Swap first round picks with New Orleans, take the Guard from UTEP later in the first round and stockpile more picks.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Skipper said:

 

I just don't get how it's not a "thing" to scrub your entire twitter profile as soon as you realize you will probably be drafted someday.  Even more inexcusable is that scrubbing social media history is not the first thing an agent does after signing a player..  Failure to do that should be agent malpractice, yet we get these year after year .

Allegedly he or his agents did a scrub back in January. Somebody else took screen captures prior to the scrub and has been sitting on it until the eve of the draft. Mayfield’s or Darnold’s agent? A team not in the Top 10 who likes him and wants him to slide to a position they can draft him?

Edited by Murfdogg21
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...