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2020-21 Houston Rockets: Luv Ya Blue?


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^^^
All you are going to get for Wall is bad contracts. Might as well keep him. 
Ho Lee Phuc.

I've never looked at Wall's contract.

$44m next season
$47m player option the following season

Gordon is 18m, 19m, 21m.

That is shittybad salary for two dudes who cant stay on the floor. Gordon's contract isn't terrible for a healthy version of him.

Probably need to try to extend CWood after next season, too... Do not Tillman that up...


Well... I guess I'll be able to get good tickets again.

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They aren't going to be able to move Gordon or Wall for anything good. Best case might actually be embracing the process for the next two years and trading Wood in a sign-trade deal for picks so you can get some quality talent on good contracts on the same timetable.

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13 hours ago, Snacks said:

So, help me understand how anyone knows Silas shouldn't be the coach.

I don't talk to a lot of NBA coaches or GMs.

He provides amble evidence every game he coaches.

16 in a row by an average score of 120.25 to 102, don't care how bad this roster is, losing every game by an average of 18 points is fucking abysmal coaching.

3 games decided by 5-7 points, so really no games that came down to a final possession.

Even the shitastic Timberwolves have managed to not churn out a 10 game losing streak, but if you did add up their 2 longest losing streaks this season, it equals the Rockets' current streak.

Going to be interesting to see the March 26th and 27th back to back.

Edited by HtownHorn
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9 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

He provides amble evidence every game he coaches.

16 in a row by an average score of 120.25 to 102, don't care how bad this roster is, losing every game by an average of 18 points is fucking abysmal coaching.

3 games decided by 5-7 points, so really no games that came down to a final possession.

Even the shitastic Timberwolves have managed to not churn out a 10 game losing streak, but if you did add up their 2 longest losing streaks this season, it equals the Rockets' current streak.

Going to be interesting to see the March 26th and 27th back to back.

I mean I kinda want him to be shitatstic right now and I’m glad we blow ass. 

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13 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

He provides amble evidence every game he coaches.

16 in a row by an average score of 120.25 to 102, don't care how bad this roster is, losing every game by an average of 18 points is fucking abysmal coaching.

3 games decided by 5-7 points, so really no games that came down to a final possession.

Even the shitastic Timberwolves have managed to not churn out a 10 game losing streak, but if you did add up their 2 longest losing streaks this season, it equals the Rockets' current streak.

Going to be interesting to see the March 26th and 27th back to back.

And yet, Minn is still 3 games behind the Rockets.

Look, I'm not giving him a pass or anything, this is a train wreck, but I think you're underestimating just how bad this roster is.  It's a G league roster on most nights.

Add in the injuries and 20+ different starting lineups in 37 something games and it's a recipe for disaster.  

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Some good perspective here on the Rockets' short-term plans and the draft.

https://theathletic.com/2450863/2021/03/15/pj-tucker-trade-talk-rockets-draft-needs-and-more-with-sam-vecenie

Spoiler

Kelly Iko: Sam, I have to be honest. I knew the Rockets would be back in the lottery at some point — the NBA operates in cycles, and Houston has reached the end of theirs — but I didn’t think it would happen as quickly as this season. Their drop-off has been so sudden and stark. Of course, the Rockets aren’t the only team that has had to deal with player-availability issues, and the COVID-19 situation is ever-present … but man, injuries have ravaged this team. There’s been no consistency, Christian Wood‘s absence has sent them tumbling down the standings and their losing streak has ballooned to 16 — with no realistic end in sight. What’s the view from your vantage point?

Sam Vecenie: Yeah, I’m not particularly surprised that they’ve fallen off a cliff since the James Harden deal just simply due to the injuries and the fact that it’s really hard to sustain the kind of effort they were exerting on defense over a long stretch of games. 

But mostly it’s the injuries, Wood’s being the biggest issue. Unfortunately, as I thought you wrote very well at the time, the DeMarcus Cousins signing just didn’t work out. He couldn’t move on defense. And without him, they just have no frontcourt depth that can hold up (Justin Patton has averaged 27 minutes per game in Houston’s last six). It’s unsustainable for them to compete given that and given that their talent level just doesn’t quite match up in the ridiculous Western Conference, as much as John Wall is trying to prop things up with a superhuman effort coming off his Achilles tear. Eric Gordon missing time with a knee issue also doesn’t help. 

So, yeah, this is definitely hurtling toward being a rebuild, maybe even quicker than the front office thought. Hopefully, ownership is comfortable with making the choice to move on from some of its veterans because I do think the Rockets could be in an interesting space to add assets at the deadline. 

P.J. Tucker and the future
Iko: That’s a good place to start. As we’ve reported here on a number of occasions, names like P.J. Tucker and Ben McLemore have been generating interest around the league as the March 25 deadline inches closer and closer. Our Shams Charania wrote recently that in the event of a Tucker trade, Houston would prefer to get a young player back as opposed to additional draft compensation. As of Thursday, Tucker and the Rockets have agreed to part ways in anticipation of a resolution — essentially a trade to a contender. 

There are a number of suitors on the market. Houston wants someone who can step in and contribute, but the overriding notion is interested teams will prefer to send draft capital due to Tucker’s expiring contract and his advanced age. Should they be more inclined to stock the draft cupboard? At what point do you want to stop accumulating picks? 

Vecenie: This is going to sound like a cop-out, but I think the answer is simply whatever the best deal is. If the best deal involves them getting a really interesting young prospect, then they should do that. If the deal involves them getting multiple higher-end second-rounders, they should do that. Simply put, I think you evaluate everything that’s on the table, understand the value of the players or picks and make the best choice available to you. I wouldn’t prioritize one over the other, though. 

I’ll be interested to see what they get back because from talking to sources around the league, Tucker’s value is pretty polarizing. Some people really worry about his age and think he might be done. Others think he’s just biding his time waiting to get to a contender. I think he’s a great player for a contender to target given his toughness and given that his contract is not particularly expensive. I probably wouldn’t give up a first-rounder, but I’d want to get him on my team. 

Iko: I think it’s a blend of both, honestly. Tucker’s play this season has notably declined, which would point to his age and legs, which have a great deal of mileage on them. But in the right role on the right team, he can still serve a purpose — which is why Houston should be taking those phone calls and exploring deals. 

But a hypothetical Tucker deal naturally leads me to my next question. Houston’s two biggest trades in recent years — Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook and Harden to Brooklyn — have left the team with a boatload of draft capital, some of which comes in confusing combinations. Can you break it all down?

Vecenie: The picks are interesting. They have a lot of them. In 2021, the Rockets will own Portland’s first-rounder, assuming the Blazers continue on their current playoff trajectory. They will not have the Pistons’ first-rounder because that team is not making the playoffs; that pick obligation from Detroit will be extended out into 2022 when it will still be protected for the top-16 picks. I think I’d be surprised if the Rockets see this pick until 2025. The good news is that they have until 2027 before it reverts to becoming a second-rounder. 

The Rockets’ own 2021 pick is now obviously fascinating too, given the team’s swoon over the last month. It is currently involved in a larger pick swap scenario with Oklahoma City and Brooklyn, but that pick swap does not happen if the Rockets end up with a top-four pick. The Rockets keep their pick if it falls inside the top four. If it is not, the Thunder get the two best picks among theirs, Miami’s and Houston’s first-rounders, while the Rockets would land the worst. That’s the difference between potentially ending up with one of Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs versus ending up with someone like Ayo Dosunmu or Greg Brown. It’s an enormous, enormous difference, and frankly, one worth tanking for even if they only have about a 52 percent chance of keeping their pick by finishing dead last in the NBA. It’s the kind of pick that can jump-start a rebuild. 

In terms of future picks? They have three first-rounders in 2022: their own, Milwaukee’s and Brooklyn’s. Obviously, those latter two should be expected to fall late in the round. The Rockets also have a first-round pick swap with Brooklyn in 2023, plus a Washington pick that starts as lottery-protected that season, with the protections dropping until 2026. Their own first-rounders (top-four protected) go out to Oklahoma City in 2024 and 2026, but they also have Brooklyn’s picks in those years. There are also a few complicated swaps out there in the future. 

Tanking and the talented top five
Iko: The question of tanking versus not tanking is one that has taken Rockets Twitter by storm recently. There’s a large enough portion that is all for the tank. They probably have the Tankathon page bookmarked, constantly running simulations. And I get it. This draft class, at least the very top of it, is extremely talented. What do you think about that conversation for the Rockets? 

Vecenie: The idea of tanking is interesting, right? Back when I was writing about the NBA from a total outsider’s perspective, I used to think tanking was almost always the right way to go. Now that I’m around the league much more and understand how players and teams see things, I’ve backed away from the tank a bit. I think it needs to be the right situation for it to be amenable. And, of course, I absolutely don’t think players and coaches tank. Front offices do. If you have a bunch of good, long-term, young centerpieces on your roster, I think it’s pretty beneficial to be as good as possible to foster player development. 

The Rockets, however, don’t really have that. I like Jae’Sean Tate as a really nice rotation player. I loved the Kevin Porter Jr. deal because his talent level is just off-the-charts interesting as a shot creator. K.J. Martin was a very interesting flier, as was Mason Jones. But I don’t think the Rockets are really counting on any of those four guys to be true centerpiece players going forward. I’m not even sure I would count Wood in that vein. He’s been one of the best finishers in the NBA when he’s been on the court this year, but a contender is still going to have to deal with some defensive hurdles with him. Plus, he only has two years on his deal after this one.

Given those factors, I don’t know that many of the players currently on the Rockets will be all that important to the team’s long-term success. Therefore, I’m actually pretty strongly in favor of the front office trading away basically everything it can and bottoming out. I feel horrible for Stephen Silas as I say that, but this team’s greatest long-term interest would be to keep this top-four pick and end up with one of the elite talents at the top of this draft. And if they lose the pick anyway by falling out of the top four on lottery night, well, the team is bad anyway, so you’re not really taking away a contender here. The Harden deal did that already (if there was even any hope going into the 2020-21 season to begin with). 

Iko: Let’s dive into that. You’ve talked about them in great detail already: Is it fair to say you’re pretty high on the top five or six picks? How would you best describe this incoming class, particularly that grouping?

Vecenie: I think this top five stacks up with any top five I’ve evaluated in the seven or so years I’ve been doing this professionally. And given that those are the only picks in the lottery, in all likelihood, that matter for Houston, it’s probably not worth diving into my concerns once you get outside of the top five (of which I have a few). 

This top five has everything modern teams are looking for. Cade Cunningham is a tremendous 6-foot-8 guard who can lead an offense at the point. He’s strong, can score from all three levels and can really pass it (don’t worry about his passing numbers at Oklahoma State; he showcased everything you need to see during his high school days at Montverde Academy). Oh, yeah, and he’s a tremendous defender. I think he’s the clear No. 1 guy. 

Behind him, Evan Mobley has been terrific at USC this year as a do-it-all center. He’s a good ballhandler for his size and has real potential to step out and shoot it. Defensively, his hips are incredibly fluid, and he’s extremely laterally quick while also having great defensive instincts in rotation. You’d just like to see him be a bit more aggressive at times. I also really like Jalen Suggs, a super athlete out of Gonzaga at the lead guard spot. Suggs is terrific with ball-screens, has real three-level scoring ability and terrific passing ability.

Behind them, the duo of Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green really showed out in the G League bubble. Kuminga is a strong 6-foot-6 wing who is good on both ends of the floor; he just needs to shore up his jumper. Green is a hyper-athletic guard with some creativity who can really fill it up. I have all five of these players tracking toward a higher grade than I had on Anthony Edwards, who went No. 1 overall last year. 

Iko: To me, these top five guys scream versatility and NBA-readiness. Houston would be fortunate to get its hands on any of them.

This season has shown that one of the Rockets’ biggest glaring weaknesses is at wing. They need a strong, sizable player who can create offense for himself, score at all three levels and can also be a serviceable defender in Silas’ schemes. How would you rank their big board? With how their season has gone, is this a situation where you just go for the best available talent, or should there be a more detailed and precise fit? 

Vecenie: As I said at the top, I don’t know that the Rockets have anyone on this team who I could guarantee will be on the next contender in Houston (given Wood being under contract for only two more years, Wall’s age and Porter being a bit of a wild card). What they’ve done this season matters, I guess, but I kind of think this team is going to look drastically different after the trade deadline. 

I’d be looking to acquire the best ball-dominant player that I could. I would want a creator more than a big, a guy that I could build around. So for that reason, at this stage of the process, I’d probably go…

Cade Cunningham 
Jalen Suggs
Evan Mobley
Jalen Green
Jonathan Kuminga
Cunningham is the clear top guy and solves basically every problem you outlined above in addition to being a lead creator they could build around. At No. 2, I would go Suggs because I think his upside as a dynamic, All-Star-level pick-and-roll creator is greater than any of the other three. The thing that separates him from the other three, in particular, is his passing vision. I have Mobley a half-tier ahead of Green, so it would take a pretty specific instance for me to take Green here. This almost suffices, but the upside that Porter has shown since being called up gives me just enough hope that he can carry some of the offensive scoring load even when surrounded by better players. 

Green falls to No. 4 because I think I worry about what his impact will look like on a winning team. He’s not an adept passer or a good defender yet. That’s totally fine; he has more than enough time to get there. But I’d prefer the more complete players above him. Then Kuminga at No. 5, as he still has just a few more questions. 

Iko: Houston ending up with Cunningham or Suggs after the season they’ve had would be a hell of a Cinderella story. Assuming they hang on to Wall, Gordon (and Porter to a lesser extent), having those extra ballhandlers/scorers/creators would lessen the burden on Silas to run half-court sets, and the Rockets could play faster and more dynamic — two things he stresses almost weekly. 

I wanted to get your thoughts on someone like Josh Christopher out of Arizona State, whose game I like a lot. I see a silly scorer who has that on-court swagger guys gravitate toward. I believe I’ve seen him projected as a mid-to-late first-rounder in a few mocks. Maybe they should be looking at more size here, but who are you looking at with the Blazers pick, and what should Houston be targeting here? Best fit or best talent? 

Vecenie: Yeah, I’m thinking more best talent for them. I’d be going with the guys I think have a chance to be real difference-maker, either accentuating some of the potential star power that could be coming their way or by taking a lower-percentage of likelihood upside swing (a la what Oklahoma City did last year with Aleksej Pokusevski). 

It’s early to project specific names, but a guy like former Duke player Jalen Johnson stands out to me as an interesting upside swing. He’ll have to answer some real questions in the pre-draft process, but his ability in the open court with the ball in hand is tantalizing. He has a shot to be there that late depending on how the pre-draft goes. I’d potentially be intrigued by super-athletic forward Greg Brown if he gets into that range, too, as a project. Tre Mann is also a really interesting shot creator who could be around in the late first. 

But, on the other end of the spectrum, bringing in culture builders such as Davion Mitchell would help, too. Mitchell is an elite defender and an incredible worker, and he’s really improved his jumper over the last year. He profiles as a really terrific role player who could help Silas build a strong core. The same goes for Chris Duarte out of Oregon, a terrific shooter who also won All-Defense honors in the Pac-12 on the perimeter this year. There are a variety of different ways they could go, so I think it all just depends on who is on the board and what ends up happening with the Rockets’ first pick.

Iko: Terrific stuff, Sam. Duarte is a name I’ve heard a few times this year, but this just goes back to what you said about the overall quality of the 2021 class — there is talent across the board.

Second-half positives … so far
Iko: I’ve kept you long enough, but I have to ask you one more thing before I let you go. Since the Rockets returned to action for the second half of the season, it’s been more or less what we saw in the first half: Houston hanging around for a while and making it interesting before the opposing team blows it out of the water. 

But there have been two positives to come out of this “restart”: the play of Porter and Martin. Porter, especially, has played well as a lead ballhandler and has shown some poise in the half court, using his gravity and improved playmaking to make the game easier for those around him. I’ve been impressed by Martin’s defensive work, his activity around the basket and, of course, his athleticism. Should these two names change anything about Houston’s draft plans? 

Vecenie: I actually really like what I’ve seen out of both of those players. Porter’s talent is undeniable. The entire basketball community has known it since he was in high school. He’s had a tough upbringing and environment before reaching the NBA.  He just needs a steady environment around him to help him reach his immense ceiling; hopefully, Houston can provide that, and he can keep up his end of the bargain too. And Martin is a really fun, interesting defensive prospect. He seems like a perfect fit for this modern NBA on that end. He could be a real difference-maker there. 

Still, I don’t know that their presence would change anything about the way I would approach Houston’s future. Mostly that’s because I think both Martin and Porter are versatile in terms of the players they can play with. Cunningham can play with Porter. Any wing or big can play with Martin. There isn’t enough overlap there to where I’m worried. I’d just build the way I want to. For me, that would be by prioritizing potentially elite on-ball offensive talents and versatile players who can complement them in the construct of the modern NBA with skills like shooting and perimeter defense. 

 

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as such, here is the all in trade on tanking and going all in for talent accumulation.  by acquiring the minnesota pick, you are giving yourself another crack at getting into the top 5 this year (their pick is top 3 protected this year) and if not, you have their unprotected pick next year.  wood (and eating 2 years of wiggins) is the price you pay to do that:

 

 

tradenba-snap-1615848130756.png

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28 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

as such, here is the all in trade on tanking and going all in for talent accumulation.  by acquiring the minnesota pick, you are giving yourself another crack at getting into the top 5 this year (their pick is top 3 protected this year) and if not, you have their unprotected pick next year.  wood (and eating 2 years of wiggins) is the price you pay to do that:

 

 

tradenba-snap-1615848130756.png

Wait you want to give up Wood for the hopes that Minnesota doesn't get a Top 4 pick to pick a guy that is likely never going to be as good as Wood? On top of that you aren't even getting Wiseman. What a fucking horrible idea, especially from a guy preaching talent acquisition.

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wood is only under contract for two more years.  the rockets are going to suck for the next two years and i doubt he's going to be looking to stay when he has his pick of anywhere.

getting minnesota's top 3 protected pick this year gives the rockets a bit of wiggle room if their own pick doesn't land in the top 4.  they can still get a top 4-6 pick via minnesota.  dream scenario, rockets win the lottery and push minnesota to the #5 pick.  rockets pick #1 and #5.

even if minnesota keeps their pick this year, it's unprotected next year.  they'll suck as they always do and you have two nice picks next year as the rockets control their own pick and will also suck.  

wood is really good.  i don't know if he's a building block.  the entire focus of the organization should be on acquiring building blocks.  

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12 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

trading wood also commits to the tank.

There is a reason teams that commit to the tank have to tank for 5+ years. It's laughable that you want to trade a 25 year old center averaging 22-10, on 56/42/69 for a shit contract and a chance that Minnesota doesn't get a Top 3 pick. All the while you are fighting against them for that same pick range.

Sure you could hit the walkoff grand slam HR of getting #1 and #4, but it's also just as likely you don't get Minnesota's pick and yours is going to OKC. Smart teams don't risk a top tier center on those margins.

There's a better chance the Rockets end up with Aaron Gordon than the Rockets trading Christian Wood.

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On 3/14/2021 at 10:30 PM, HtownHorn said:

He provides amble evidence every game he coaches.

16 in a row by an average score of 120.25 to 102, don't care how bad this roster is, losing every game by an average of 18 points is fucking abysmal coaching.

3 games decided by 5-7 points, so really no games that came down to a final possession.

Even the shitastic Timberwolves have managed to not churn out a 10 game losing streak, but if you did add up their 2 longest losing streaks this season, it equals the Rockets' current streak.

Going to be interesting to see the March 26th and 27th back to back.

Maybe the goal is to be sure to tank.

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Tate, Porter, Wood, and Martin are the future. Try to flip Oladipo for the pieces needed to get Gordon, and deal Wall and Gordon in the offseason.

If you somehow get a Top 4 pick, then you add to that young exciting nucleus.

Any of the guards would look great in this lineup.

Porter, Cunningham/Suggs/Green, Tate, Gordon, and Wood starting 5 would be very interesting.

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He provides amble evidence every game he coaches.
16 in a row by an average score of 120.25 to 102, don't care how bad this roster is, losing every game by an average of 18 points is fucking abysmal coaching.
3 games decided by 5-7 points, so really no games that came down to a final possession.
Even the shitastic Timberwolves have managed to not churn out a 10 game losing streak, but if you did add up their 2 longest losing streaks this season, it equals the Rockets' current streak.
Going to be interesting to see the March 26th and 27th back to back.
Are you serious?

Who is the NBA starter on this roster?
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1 hour ago, Snacks said:

Are you serious?

Who is the NBA starter on this roster?

17 games in a row. Not just losing, getting the fuck blown out. There are plenty of teams that have shit rosters that haven't lost 17 straight games by nearly 20 points per.

He has no idea what he is doing, but please find me any example of a NBA coach losing 17 straight that held onto their job for more than a few more seasons and went on to have consistent playoff success.

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17 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

He has no idea what he is doing, but please find me any example of a NBA coach losing 17 straight that held onto their job for more than a few more seasons and went on to have consistent playoff success.

The Doc Rivers coached Celtics lost 18 in a row in 06/07. He won a championship the next year. 

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48 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Is this a wash? Feel like a wash. First rounder for a first rounder, old guy for a old guy? What am I missing? I’m sure a ton so I’m seriously asking. 

You missed the Longhorn for Longhorn part.

 

I appreciate PJ's time here but not the way he acted with his contract situation and sulking. He can put up doughnuts on the score sheet for the Bucks. I will be quite surprised if they give him the 2 yr/17M contract he is looking for. Maybe a change of scenery might get him to rejuvenate his game - being in a contract year certainly didn't.

It's nice to get DJ Augustin. He's more than a serviceable ballhandler off of the bench and now the Rockets are a little less reliant on John Wall who happens to need arthroscopic surgery on his L knee in the off season. DJ Wilson ("the other DJ") has been freed from the Bucks bench. I wonder if the Rockets will take the KPJ route with him by having him spend time with RGV before bringing him into the playing rotation. The Bucks used him mostly as a human victory cigar, so RGV might be a good option to get him to where he is fit to play 20-25 minutes of ball when the game isn't decided. He'll likely be backing Wood unless of course one of these days Silas learns that it is okay to get away from small ball and play two bigs (especially mobile ones) simultaneously. 

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4 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

The Doc Rivers coached Celtics lost 18 in a row in 06/07. He won a championship the next year. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2007.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2008.html

A season's difference with the addition of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the weak Eastern conference is all it took.

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On 3/14/2021 at 1:59 PM, Llogg said:

They aren't going to be able to move Gordon or Wall for anything good. Best case might actually be embracing the process for the next two years and trading Wood in a sign-trade deal for picks so you can get some quality talent on good contracts on the same timetable.

I’ve been saying that for 3 months and people have been cussing me and calling me a moron. 
I have $500 bet with someone on Clutchfans that Wood will never finish with a record above 500 with the rockets. I think he’s traded or gone after his contract is up, and I think the Rockets will be terrible for the next couple years. 

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13 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

love being able to flip our 2nd for milwaukee's first even if it only ends up being a 5 or 6 slot difference. 

hate giannis so i don't want tucker to win a ring this year, but glad he gets to play for a contender again.

It's supposed to be a deep draft, so moving up made sense. Can grab some high quality talent late in the 1st round.

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The later it went, I figured they’d get a second for PJ. Instead they got a trade up this year, and pushed the ‘22 first to ‘23 which might be a better draft class and more likely Milwaukee could be bad by then. 
MIL isnt going to be bad in 2 years unless Giannis injured.
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1 hour ago, Snacks said:
1 hour ago, Murfdogg21 said:
The later it went, I figured they’d get a second for PJ. Instead they got a trade up this year, and pushed the ‘22 first to ‘23 which might be a better draft class and more likely Milwaukee could be bad by then. 

MIL isnt going to be bad in 2 years unless Giannis injured.

Yeah, I said more likely, not likely. Or maybe more likely Giannis isn’t on the team by ‘22-23.

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Yeah, I said more likely, not likely. Or maybe more likely Giannis isn’t on the team by ‘22-23.
I guess he could force a trade, but he signed a 5/228 that starts next season and has a $51mm PO in 2026.

Injury is more likely outcome than him not being there... But AD and Harden, so...
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