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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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Hey Phil, would you mind posting some kind of baseline mortgage rate on a daily basis?

I don't care if it's Conventional, FHA, whatever, as long as you post the same one.  You've been great about posting the 10 year, but it's not tracking as consistently anymore. 

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19 hours ago, Okie State said:

Probably a dumb question, but how do Fed rates even impact mortgage rates? Everything has been all over the damn place lately.

 

I'd consider a refi if we get into the low 2's.

 

Short answer is they don't have a direct impact.  The Fed issues treasury bonds; mortgage back securities are a totally different type of bond and their pricing is market based. 

That said, the T note rates act as a floor for bank borrowing costs overall, hence why in a normal environment Fed cuts are favorable for mortgage retail pricing. 

The problem at the moment is that retail pricing has divorced itself considerably from the pricing on mortgage back securities; the main reason is that banks are at capacity.

The way I've been describing it to borrowers is that everyone is getting their money to make loans on a wholesale market; right now, the largest issuers of debt are not passing on the improvement in pricing to their retail channels because everyone's tank is all filled up with refinances.  At the top is a cartel of mortgage banks and until the Chase's and Wells Fargo's of the world reduce pricing to try to take market share away from each other there's not as much pressure for everyone else to reduce pricing.  In a more normal (even recessionary normal) environment I'd expect rates to move in a positive (i.e., lower) direction over the next few months but all of this is relatively new territory and if I really knew anything I would charge you assholes for it instead of expounding for free. 

Many of my colleagues are also pointing out that the capacity issues mean that, along with all this uncertainty, there's a high likelihood that lenders are going to be all over the map in terms of pricing.  Austin is typically very competitive which means everyone is charging about the same.  I think that's going to be less true for the foreseeable future. 

From a "do I refi now or later" perspective, if it were me I'd get in while the getting is good, as capacity issues don't look likely to resolve themselves any time soon and every third party (appraisers, title companies, etc.) are also going to be affected by volume and capacity concerns, all of which adds to the risk that a lender might not be able to deliver pricing (even if previously locked) if you're not in the front of the line.  Lenders are hedging on their warehouse lines and the volatility is just terrible for us. 

I'd also not be surprised to see some lenders close their doors pretty quickly if the depository banks shut down the wholesale market.  The Chase's and WF's don't need to feed the 1000 mortgage banks at the moment (they are getting plenty of their depository customers in for refinances).  If you're a lender that doesn't sell direct to Fannie (say a mortgage broker or smaller mortgage bank) and the wholesalers follow what they did in 2008 then it'll be rapid closures for a few and maybe more, despite what would be considered an overall favorable environment for lending. 

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1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Short answer is they don't have a direct impact.  The Fed issues treasury bonds; mortgage back securities are a totally different type of bond and their pricing is market based. 

That said, the T note rates act as a floor for bank borrowing costs overall, hence why in a normal environment Fed cuts are favorable for mortgage retail pricing. 

The problem at the moment is that retail pricing has divorced itself considerably from the pricing on mortgage back securities; the main reason is that banks are at capacity.

The way I've been describing it to borrowers is that everyone is getting their money to make loans on a wholesale market; right now, the largest issuers of debt are not passing on the improvement in pricing to their retail channels because everyone's tank is all filled up with refinances.  At the top is a cartel of mortgage banks and until the Chase's and Wells Fargo's of the world reduce pricing to try to take market share away from each other there's not as much pressure for everyone else to reduce pricing.  In a more normal (even recessionary normal) environment I'd expect rates to move in a positive (i.e., lower) direction over the next few months but all of this is relatively new territory and if I really knew anything I would charge you assholes for it instead of expounding for free. 

Many of my colleagues are also pointing out that the capacity issues mean that, along with all this uncertainty, there's a high likelihood that lenders are going to be all over the map in terms of pricing.  Austin is typically very competitive which means everyone is charging about the same.  I think that's going to be less true for the foreseeable future. 

From a "do I refi now or later" perspective, if it were me I'd get in while the getting is good, as capacity issues don't look likely to resolve themselves any time soon and every third party (appraisers, title companies, etc.) are also going to be affected by volume and capacity concerns, all of which adds to the risk that a lender might not be able to deliver pricing (even if previously locked) if you're not in the front of the line.  Lenders are hedging on their warehouse lines and the volatility is just terrible for us. 

I'd also not be surprised to see some lenders close their doors pretty quickly if the depository banks shut down the wholesale market.  The Chase's and WF's don't need to feed the 1000 mortgage banks at the moment (they are getting plenty of their depository customers in for refinances).  If you're a lender that doesn't sell direct to Fannie (say a mortgage broker or smaller mortgage bank) and the wholesalers follow what they did in 2008 then it'll be rapid closures for a few and maybe more, despite what would be considered an overall favorable environment for lending. 

Great great post right here.

Someone upthread asked for quotes- daily- I don't mind.  Best case scenario- and this is assuming my lender thats out in front wants to keep doing business (an assumption that changes by the minute) but good credit- 30 year I could do 3.375 (and if you really wanted to kick me in the balls and I thought the deal was easy and/or wroth 300 or more- 3.25).  15 year be looking at 2.875 or 3.0

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5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Great great post right here.

Someone upthread asked for quotes- daily- I don't mind.  Best case scenario- and this is assuming my lender thats out in front wants to keep doing business (an assumption that changes by the minute) but good credit- 30 year I could do 3.375 (and if you really wanted to kick me in the balls and I thought the deal was easy and/or wroth 300 or more- 3.25).  15 year be looking at 2.875 or 3.0

What's "good credit"?

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1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Also LTV is important on any quote.  I'm assuming yours were for 80% LTV and lower.

Funny enough I’ve found pricing to be better at 85 or 90% ltv- I think some of the lenders would prefer a little mortgage insurance to none. 

But yeah- that’s 80 LTV type stuff. I did quote a guy 2.5% today (15 years) but that was a 510k deal with 50% ltv- so not the typical thing I’d put forward as a standrd “quote” on- that’s a bit of a unicorn. 

 

That’s no points, no origination (to me) but paying underwriting fee to lender (I’m a broker). 

Whats crazy is- that could literally go away in a second. I have a couple wholesalers who will be 150-200 points ahead of the market and they get inundated with deals immediately and then their pricing runs to the bills. 

Everybody flat out has more than they can handle on the wholesale side so pricing is extremely volatile. 

 

LC’s post was a perfect explanation of the market. Incredibly spot on. 

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Does cashing out if the LTV is still 75% or less matter? I got quoted 3.875 today, which still seems high with the rates your throwing around. My wife's middle score is 725. Conforming loan. 3.5 would be great. I'm close to just doing the 3.875...saves a half a percentage point and I can get the cash out I need before the whole economy goes in the shitter. 

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1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yep we are literally all over the board right now with our various lenders.

My production partner texted me at 8:30 am that MBS was up 178 points or something like that at 8:30. I texted him back my gallows humor- how much will our lenders raise rates today because of that.  Was mostly a joke- and then I get my caliber email and it’s 4.35%. Go home caliber- you are drunk. 

What a time to be alive. I will be happy if I can close my board without a quarantine shutting down the entire real estate market. I’d sell futures on my pipeline for 60 cents on the dollar right now. Normally I’d sell that for 90 cents on the dollar or higher (our close rate is pretty high) but I have a feeling like we aren’t going to be doing business much longer as an industry. Hope I’m wrong. 

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7 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Does cashing out if the LTV is still 75% or less matter? I got quoted 3.875 today, which still seems high with the rates your throwing around. My wife's middle score is 725. Conforming loan. 3.5 would be great. I'm close to just doing the 3.875...saves a half a percentage point and I can get the cash out I need before the whole economy goes in the shitter. 

You talking 30 I assume. Remember cash out comes with about a 1/4 point hit in rate. I could do that for 3.625 hours on a cash out today- provided I looked at your deal and was convinced it would be easy and not take up too much time. If it looked like there was any hair on it 3.625 or 3.75

Again- that’s one lender out in front of the pack so that could disappear by opening bell tomorrow. 

3.875 isn’t a bad rate today on that. Hot guy isn’t cutting a fat hog or taking advantage of you. It’s just crazy out there. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You talking 30 I assume. Remember cash out comes with about a 1/4 point hit in rate. I could do that for 3.625 hours on a cash out today- provided I looked at your deal and was convinced it would be easy and not take up too much time. If it looked like there was any hair on it 3.625 or 3.75

Again- that’s one lender out in front of the pack so that could disappear by opening bell tomorrow. 

Yes, 30-year fixed. So 3.875 is not too bad then? This is a little embarassing but I just realized the difference between a  mortgage lender and a broker.  I've been talking to 3 lenders--one from the institution who owns my current mortgage, one who did the mortgage when we bought the house 3 years ago, and a third who does deal for a family member who does a lot of residential real estate. Should I talk to a broker? 

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10 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Yes, 30-year fixed. So 3.875 is not too bad then? This is a little embarassing but I just realized the difference between a  mortgage lender and a broker.  I've been talking to 3 lenders--one from the institution who owns my current mortgage, one who did the mortgage when we bought the house 3 years ago, and a third who does deal for a family member who does a lot of residential real estate. Should I talk to a broker? 

I mean- I’m a broker- I could have gone anywhere I wanted but chose broker bc I wanted the lowest possible rates and just wanted to dominate any coin flip. Some people choose broker for highest comp. I wouldn’t say one is any better than the other other than this- if you get a broker willing to work for lowest possible price that should be lowest rate in the market- at least amongst professionals who are going to walk you thru a deal and not an internet guy. There are advantages to dealing with institutional guys too, but I’ve always been partial to broker side. I say that not because I’m a broker but rather I’m a broker bc I’ve always felt that way (did 12 years in title before I got into mortgage). Reasonable minds can disagree. 

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6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- I’m a broker- I could have gone anywhere I wanted but chose broker bc I wanted the lowest possible rates and just wanted to dominate any coin flip. Some people choose broker for highest comp. I wouldn’t say one is any better than the other other than this- if you get a broker willing to work for lowest possible price that should be lowest rate in the market- at least amongst professionals who are going to walk you thru a deal and not an internet guy. There are advantages to dealing with institutional guys too, but I’ve always been partial to broker side. I say that not because I’m a broker but rather I’m a broker bc I’ve always felt that way (did 12 years in title before I got into mortgage). Reasonable minds can disagree. 

I guess my dilemma is trying to find that broker when I want to get the refi done pretty fast. There are a couple local ones that come up on Google, good reviews and local offices. Guess I'll try one of those to get a non-institutional quote. 

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2 minutes ago, Okie State said:

None of these rates are enough to make sense for me.

I mean- I will give you an example from my personal house. I bought with 5% down and excellent credit and gave myself a deal at fair market value (I work for about 175 bips to the house) at 3.99% I’m december. 

January 31st I would have done that deal for 3.25. February 29th I would have done that deal for 2.875 or 3. Last Friday I would have done that deal for 3.875. Today I would have done that deal for 3.375. It’s batshit crazy. We are talking about a swing of an entire point in a week, and 1/2 a point overnight. That just doesn’t happen. 

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2 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

I guess my dilemma is trying to find that broker when I want to get the refi done pretty fast. There are a couple local ones that come up on Google, good reviews and local offices. Guess I'll try one of those to get a non-institutional quote. 

That’s a good point on closing time. You might be looking at 45-60 days closing time right now. I’m used to 25-30 day closings and this is driving me crazy. 

You can only move as fast as the slowest guy in the process and when you are a broker there are some things that get done out of house. 

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- I will give you an example from my personal house. I bought with 5% down and excellent credit and gave myself a deal at fair market value (I work for about 175 bips to the house) at 3.99% I’m december. 

January 31st I would have done that deal for 3.25. February 29th I would have done that deal for 2.875 or 3. Last Friday I would have done that deal for 3.875. Today I would have done that deal for 3.375. It’s batshit crazy. We are talking about a swing of an entire point in a week, and 1/2 a point overnight. That just doesn’t happen. 

These numbers are all very different and indeed bathshit crazy. The lender who quoted me 3.875 also said we could "float down" if rates dropped after I'm approved. That's a bit reassuring because I could see rates settling back down once the dust settles. I could also see everything collapse. 

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Still don’t see how this combined with fucking $30 oil doesn’t effect real estate in Texas, specifically in Houston. Already have heard of some buyers backing out of offers.

 

Reading the main thread above you would think the world is ending & the stock market is going to 0

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

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I have competing offers for my listing as the seller. One conventional, one VA. My realtor is telling me VA can be a lengthy bitch to get closed, especially with the house being WW2 era with certain underlying issues. What say surly RE experts?

(VA is full ask, conventional was made aware of va offer and sending best/final tomorrow)

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29 minutes ago, bluto said:

I have competing offers for my listing as the seller. One conventional, one VA. My realtor is telling me VA can be a lengthy bitch to get closed, especially with the house being WW2 era with certain underlying issues. What say surly RE experts?

(VA is full ask, conventional was made aware of va offer and sending best/final tomorrow)

VA can cause appraisal problems that might not exist on a conventional and have a timeline a week to two weeks longer. If you want to close as quickly as possible conventional is the ticket. If you want as much certainty as you can get that the transaction will happen I’d suggest seeing if you can talk to the people putting in the bids. That’s obviously not standard operating procedure but these are interesting times. All they could do is say no. 

But, if one guy was a government employee and the other guy was a manager at a local restaurant, for example, I know who I’d be more inclined to sell to. 

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So, really starting to wonder if this is the right time to buy a house with all of the very clear warnings that a severe recession is coming (is here?).  Supposed to close on May 4 (or 5th, can't remember), and like the house.  However, if market tanks in 6 months, that implies houses in other areas we like even better currently out of our price range may become available.    Or that even something like this house would be available for much less.

 

 

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15 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- I’m a broker- I could have gone anywhere I wanted but chose broker bc I wanted the lowest possible rates and just wanted to dominate any coin flip. Some people choose broker for highest comp. I wouldn’t say one is any better than the other other than this- if you get a broker willing to work for lowest possible price that should be lowest rate in the market- at least amongst professionals who are going to walk you thru a deal and not an internet guy. There are advantages to dealing with institutional guys too, but I’ve always been partial to broker side. I say that not because I’m a broker but rather I’m a broker bc I’ve always felt that way (did 12 years in title before I got into mortgage). Reasonable minds can disagree. 

Well, nobody ever said I was reasonable, but I don't disagree. 

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Lunch time update I’d be looking at 3.125 on a 15 and 3.5 on a 30. Worsening today (as would be expected with 10 year and Dow up- not that any of that seems to have any bearing on the market right now)

Somebody smarter than me give a deep dive explanation on mortgage backed securities and what makes them do what they do and why they are trading at times against the 10 year?  My AE says 50% volume and 50% MBS trading oddly via a vis the 10 year that’s making this oddness happen in the past week or 10 days. 

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MC Fresh,

I’m in the same position. My wife sends me constant realtor.com listings. More this week, because she’s a teacher and on this extended break.

With all of the current uncertainty I think we should hold off until the dust settles on the CV. Hell, I could lose my job in a month or so because I’m in the O/G industry.

Best of luck on your decision!

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20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Lunch time update I’d be looking at 3.125 on a 15 and 3.5 on a 30. Worsening today (as would be expected with 10 year and Dow up- not that any of that seems to have any bearing on the market right now)

Somebody smarter than me give a deep dive explanation on mortgage backed securities and what makes them do what they do and why they are trading at times against the 10 year?  My AE says 50% volume and 50% MBS trading oddly via a vis the 10 year that’s making this oddness happen in the past week or 10 days. 

Got any low down-payment, no-PMI options that can beat 3.5%? They bottomed out at 3.375% last week before they started skyrocketing.

The credit union I'm planning to go with that fits the above parameters has marched rates down 0.5% in the last 2 days. I'm about 60 days from close, and I think I'm about ready to lock it in.

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10 minutes ago, Longhornmaniac8 said:

Got any low down-payment, no-PMI options that can beat 3.5%? They bottomed out at 3.375% last week before they started skyrocketing.

The credit union I'm planning to go with that fits the above parameters has marched rates down 0.5% in the last 2 days. I'm about 60 days from close, and I think I'm about ready to lock it in.

Lock it and go. That’s a fantastic deal. I imagine that’s a portfolio product?  It’s a great one. Credit unions, if they want to and are competent, could own this space with stuff like that. As someone whose check was signed for 5 years by a CU (but didn’t work for the CU or in lending at the time) I don’t have much fear that they will be able to get out of their own way and figure that out- but they can probably help their members on accident. 

The vibe o got from everyone there was state employee. YMMV

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58 minutes ago, msucolt45 said:

MC Fresh,

I’m in the same position. My wife sends me constant realtor.com listings. More this week, because she’s a teacher and on this extended break.

With all of the current uncertainty I think we should hold off until the dust settles on the CV. Hell, I could lose my job in a month or so because I’m in the O/G industry.

Best of luck on your decision!

 

Thank you.  I go back and forth on it like crazy.  That said, I just got back from the home inspection, and there seems to be nothing major to worry about and I really like the house/location.  If there were no threat of impending recession, I wouldn't hesitate at all.  Fits our budget, got a good rate, e.t.c.  The market I'm in doesn't have a lot of inventory in the range we look at, so we got lucky getting it before it hit MLS.  I guess the inventory could change, but so hard to tell.  So at this point, leaning towards going forward.  Talk to me in about 30 minutes after reading more of the main corona virus thread and I'll probably be leaning opposite. 

Best of luck to you as well, especially with your employment.  I'm in the tech industry, so who knows.   

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VA vs conventional saga continues.... house listed at 275 in DFW area, conventional initial offer was 250, VA was full ask. 'best and final' from conventional was 264 and they have all their ducks in a row. VA offer still hasn't gotten pre qual letter or even a formal offer over, just a realtor email/loi type deal. house only been re-listed since friday after a couple winter months of shit head realtor listing it ineffectively. 

if VA offer doesn't have its shit together I think we're going to go back to conv at 264 with not a penny out of my pocket beyond commissions. 

 

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4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Lock it and go. That’s a fantastic deal. I imagine that’s a portfolio product?  It’s a great one. Credit unions, if they want to and are competent, could own this space with stuff like that. As someone whose check was signed for 5 years by a CU (but didn’t work for the CU or in lending at the time) I don’t have much fear that they will be able to get out of their own way and figure that out- but they can probably help their members on accident. 

The vibe o got from everyone there was state employee. YMMV

I locked in about a month too early unfortunately with my CU at 4.125% but it was $0 down and no PMI.   I never assumed I would be able to get as much house as I wanted but with zero down I was elated.  This particular CU seems to be going after the market pretty hard in the Texas Gulf Coast market.

 

   

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2 hours ago, bluto said:

VA vs conventional saga continues.... house listed at 275 in DFW area, conventional initial offer was 250, VA was full ask. 'best and final' from conventional was 264 and they have all their ducks in a row. VA offer still hasn't gotten pre qual letter or even a formal offer over, just a realtor email/loi type deal. house only been re-listed since friday after a couple winter months of shit head realtor listing it ineffectively. 

if VA offer doesn't have its shit together I think we're going to go back to conv at 264 with not a penny out of my pocket beyond commissions. 

   That’s not terrible if they really do go forward and execute and you oh nothing other than realtor commissions. 

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1 hour ago, Zwylde said:

I locked in about a month too early unfortunately with my CU at 4.125% but it was $0 down and no PMI.   I never assumed I would be able to get as much house as I wanted but with zero down I was elated.  This particular CU seems to be going after the market pretty hard in the Texas Gulf Coast market.

 

   

Mind if I ask who it was?  I know a bunch of people in that space and just curious. Hell- I refer back and forth with a credit union guy for when he has a product I don’t and vice versa. 

Did you pay an origination on that?  That’s a pretty sweet deal. 

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8 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Does your down payment actually affect what interest rate you get. Looking at possibility of putting 40% down on house. Does that get me below 3.5% for 30? 
 

It can. Up to a certain point. My lenders typically price 95-80 better than 80-75, on par with 75-70 and then 69-60 a bit better. Biggest difference is if you have less than stellar credit- the more you put down the less your rate is clobbered. 

For example- I just put a 15 year guy with 55% ltv and a 621 credit score in at 3.25 on a 15. If he was at 80% ltv no way he could touch that. 

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Agreed and they accepted the terms!!!! , “unless inspection comes back to where the loan just won’t fund, then it’s your expense along with title costs” is how the buyers agent laid it out. (We’ll see if that actually happens)
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28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Mind if I ask who it was?  I know a bunch of people in that space and just curious. Hell- I refer back and forth with a credit union guy for when he has a product I don’t and vice versa. 

Did you pay an origination on that?  That’s a pretty sweet deal. 

TDECU.  And I forgot to mention they also waived the origination fee.  I think they took my middle score which was 790 I think.

 

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5 minutes ago, Zwylde said:

TDECU.  And I forgot to mention they also waived the origination fee.  I think they took my middle score which was 790 I think.

 

Wow. They are really getting aggressive at buying the market. Of all the credit unions who have the footprint and ambition to try to do it they are probably #1 on my list. 

From having worked extensively with them they vacillate between amazing and incompetent. The higher up the food chain you go the less impressive they are- but I’ve never met anyone on the front lines over there that wasn’t really nice and gung ho about serving the member. 

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

From having worked extensively with them they vacillate between amazing and incompetent. The higher up the food chain you go the less impressive they are- but I’ve never met anyone on the front lines over there that wasn’t really nice and gung ho about serving the member. 

Having had an account with them for almost 30 years, spot on.   I didn’t consider them when I did my mortgage because they fucked the dog so bad with a buddy of mine. He used them again (aggy, so...) and they did fine the second time. 

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