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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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37 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, I was under the impression that realtor.com was less sucky than other sites.

Realtor.com buys it's info directly from the MLS.  Now, I wasn't aware that they did some value estimate horseshit, but if they do, it's horseshit.  Unless you live in a cookie-cutter tract or large condo project perhaps.   A Lennar Plan X can be pretty easily comped to the Plan X that sold 3 lots down.

 

 

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, by square footage (and acreage) my house should be worth more than a few they quote nearby.  I don't really care other than I'd like to know if I could dump it for a major (as opposed to minor) windfall.

Either their algorithm is busted, or they don't update daily, or they are taking into account something other than "square footage".

If you are 3000 sqft, and a 5 bd/4.5bth, that tells me you are a a cut up MFer. Your bedroom are 10x10 with a small shitty bathroom. I've had square footage in a $200+ a square foot area bring $140/sqft., because of layout. You didn't say 3000 sqft., so I am assuming. We don't know the equation till you let us know. Bourbon.

How much square footage we talkin' about?

CHIEF

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12 hours ago, CHIEF said:

If you are 3000 sqft, and a 5 bd/4.5bth, that tells me you are a a cut up MFer. Your bedroom are 10x10 with a small shitty bathroom. I've had square footage in a $200+ a square foot area bring $140/sqft., because of layout. You didn't say 3000 sqft., so I am assuming. We don't know the equation till you let us know. Bourbon.

How much square footage we talkin' about?

Well above 3000.  Why does it matter?  I'm simply trying to assess current value.

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On 5/5/2021 at 12:22 PM, TKthunder2 said:

Y’all got me curious, but either I’m a lucky asshole or this thing isn’t very accurate...

1395ee260530f056c7829d9c1f09e95f.jpg

Zillow says the house I bought at same time is worth worth 200K more less than a year later. 

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Listed our 6yr old home here in Pearland on the west side of 288 this morning. 5 viewings just today, none for tomorrow, yet (I think that will change come morning time) and one for Saturday. First showing we received a site unseen 15k over asking offer. Realtor facetimed them from what it looked like on our security cams. We knew things were nuts but, I honestly didn't think it would be straight out of the gates like this. When people put in an over asking offer like that, are they trying to set the tone and weed out the low ballers? This is my first house to sell so I'm new to it all. 

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It seems like some around here might be getting site unseen offers that the buyer later backs out of. More than one we've looked at has gone pending within a day or two only to be relisted a week later. A few several times. I don't blame them because these particular houses photograph well, but have been shit in person. I assume some people are listing theirs just to see what they can get and put zero effort into getting them ready for sale. No need I guess.


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2 hours ago, Okie State said:

It seems like some around here might be getting site unseen offers that the buyer later backs out of. More than one we've looked at has gone pending within a day or two only to be relisted a week later. A few several times. I don't blame them because these particular houses photograph well, but have been shit in person. I assume some people are listing theirs just to see what they can get and put zero effort into getting them ready for sale. No need I guess.

 

Counter with no option period and $15k earnest money will stop that bullshit. Lot of investors in the market right now. They just want to tie up the house with an option, then try to figure out what to do from there.

CHIEF

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It seems like some around here might be getting site unseen offers that the buyer later backs out of. More than one we've looked at has gone pending within a day or two only to be relisted a week later. A few several times. I don't blame them because these particular houses photograph well, but have been shit in person. I assume some people are listing theirs just to see what they can get and put zero effort into getting them ready for sale. No need I guess.




We’ve definitely put the effort in to staging our home. I’d say our house looks better in person than in photos but that’s just me. The party that put the offer down had the realtor come out only. Looks like they faced timed them.


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6 hours ago, Okie State said:

It seems like some around here might be getting site unseen offers that the buyer later backs out of. More than one we've looked at has gone pending within a day or two only to be relisted a week later. A few several times. I don't blame them because these particular houses photograph well, but have been shit in person. I assume some people are listing theirs just to see what they can get and put zero effort into getting them ready for sale. No need I guess.

 

You're giving people the benefit of the doubt.  Some turds will put multiple offers to hold and then back out after they make their choice.

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Signed the contract today for the 15k over asking no show. Had 5 showings yesterday and 7 today just in case. Surprised no one tried to compete with it since houses in this area are going quick with lesser upgrades. We're in a cul-de-sac, no rear neighbors with the house backed up to the woods, well maintained landscaping/house and I think reasonably priced.  

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WTF is going on with Austin real estate? I live in Oak Hill, a very low key neighborhood. There are very few houses for sale, and all at insane prices. We bought our house 20 years ago for like $70/sq.ft. Now they are asking around $300/sq.ft., and apparently they sell for way over asking price. Seriously, why?

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21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

How long till real estate markets settle down? Not really Austin because the tech migration makes it unique. 

3 or 4 years?  My understanding is we are 3 million units short and we build about 3 million units a year. So if you add 30% you get 3 or 4 years to get that back. 
that start time doesn’t come from today but probably summer/fall as lots of places in the country are still shut down. 

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

3 or 4 years?  My understanding is we are 3 million units short and we build about 3 million units a year. So if you add 30% you get 3 or 4 years to get that back. 
that start time doesn’t come from today but probably summer/fall as lots of places in the country are still shut down. 

We DID 3 million units a year, before lumber, steel, and multiple other shortages. Until the supply chain recovers, we’re going to have limited production.

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On 5/3/2021 at 2:40 PM, Gil Bang said:

This right here...this is how you humblebrag.

I don't mind humblebragging....

Between Redfin, Realtor, and Zillow, they only differ in estimate by $500,000 . Seems legit. Realtor actually lists who's supplying their estimates (Collateral Analytics , Corelogic, & Quantarium), and defaults to Corelogic (lowest estimate for my house) when you first search for their estimates.

Spoiler

 

Redfin:

redfin.thumb.jpg.d14293cde964507333c61ef4597a2a60.jpg

Realtor:

realtor.thumb.jpg.52a5b4b74ecc011d0bfd0cc1f91169cc.jpg

 

Zillow:

zillow.thumb.jpg.96c06021765312a18a5bc5fa128d1f8a.jpg

 

 

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8 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

We DID 3 million units a year, before lumber, steel, and multiple other shortages. Until the supply chain recovers, we’re going to have limited production.

Yeah- that’s why I said from summer time. Is the supply chain fixed by August?  Maybe. Maybe not. But yeah- that’s totally true. 

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WTF is going on with Austin real estate? I live in Oak Hill, a very low key neighborhood. There are very few houses for sale, and all at insane prices. We bought our house 20 years ago for like $70/sq.ft. Now they are asking around $300/sq.ft., and apparently they sell for way over asking price. Seriously, why?

You largely answered your own question. People haven’t stopped moving there. If anything it’s accelerated. And yet there’s barely any inventory.
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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


You largely answered your own question. People haven’t stopped moving there. If anything it’s accelerated. And yet there’s barely any inventory.

It’s more complicated than that. Multiple factors have combined to limit inventory plus people are moving here in large volumes. Many real estates markets around the country are stressed with Austin being among the worst due to the big inflow. 

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3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s more complicated than that. Multiple factors have combined to limit inventory plus people are moving here in large volumes. Many real estates markets around the country are stressed with Austin being among the worst due to the big inflow. 

This. I’m shocked at home much our rental homes are going. 

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On 5/7/2021 at 5:42 AM, Okie State said:

It seems like some around here might be getting site unseen offers that the buyer later backs out of. More than one we've looked at has gone pending within a day or two only to be relisted a week later. A few several times. I don't blame them because these particular houses photograph well, but have been shit in person. I assume some people are listing theirs just to see what they can get and put zero effort into getting them ready for sale. No need I guess.
 

This.  We are starting to see this a lot, which is making us even more comfortable taking our time.  We have until August to October, so plenty of time to figure this out.  Our agent is also incessantly pushing that we execute the appraisal addendum for a full waiver, which tells me they know the home isn't even going to come close to appraising out.  Which means we would have to come up with a material amount of additional cash to close, or walk away from sunk costs.  I think this is the game being played with a lot of listing and buying agents, as there are too many agents and too few listings.  So they are pushing their clients to get closings so they get paid.  It is sort of a mess.  But once again, we've seen six homes come back to market in the last two weeks for the micro-market we are shopping in.

 

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The above post is a mess, but I'm going to try to respond

 

This.  We are starting to see this a lot, which is making us even more comfortable taking our time.  We have until August to October, so plenty of time to figure this out. 

Our agent is also incessantly pushing that we execute the appraisal addendum for a full waiver, which tells me they know the home isn't even going to come close to appraising out

Actually, what your agent is doing is trying to get your offer accepted in a crazy fucking market.  If a dozen other offers have the appraisal waiver and yours does not, you have zero chance of getting it accepted

 

Which means we would have to come up with a material amount of additional cash to close, or walk away from sunk costs. 

Yes, that's the end result of the appraisal waiver. 

 

I think this is the game being played with a lot of listing and buying agents, as there are too many agents and too few listings.  So they are pushing their clients to get closings so they get paid.  It is sort of a mess. 

Yeah, the agents want to get paid.  Those representing buyers also want to put their buyers in a house that works for them.  Those that are representing sellers want to get the most money that they can get for their sellers.  It's called "doing your fucking job". 

But once again, we've seen six homes come back to market in the last two weeks for the micro-market we are shopping in.

Because, once the house is inspected, the buyers (who are paying a premium) expect the house to be in top condition, or expect the sellers to do repairs to bring it to top condition.  Meanwhile, the seller says "fuck you, I got a dozen other offers, if you don't want THIS house in THIS condition at THIS price, somebody else does."

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Yes, that quoted response didn't format as intended and it was too late to go back and edit once I saw it.

Also, for context, we've narrowed our search down to a very small micro-market in Dallas where we're seeing three to five homes come to the market that fit our box a week.  This is to say, we've been fairly focused and have been following up with our agent on homes that went under contract and fell out of contract.  The responses we've received from the listing agents (most of which have followed up with our agent, knowing we toured but didn't offer) was people falling out because of i) buyer's remorse (or whatever you want to call someone getting caught up in a bidding war), ii) appraisal shortfall (not fully appreciating how much extra cash they'd have to come up with) and iii) multiple offers on homes.  Granted, this is a super small sample size to date - but nothing has been mentioned on the condition of the home. 

 

Most of these homes are 1980s/early-1990s ranch-style homes that are in need of addressing capital expenditures and a renovation, i.e. they are all pretty down the fairway.  So as long as something major doesn't come up during inspection, I expect all buyers are accepting the condition as-is because chances are they're dumping another $50,000 into them for renovations over the next several years.

Like I said, this is a very, very small sample size and more of our observation.  We'll see though.  We put in another offer today, so will see how that goes.  We are just going to keep working the process.

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Interesting info on mortgages this year:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mortgage-boom-is-fading-11620552780

Quote

The Mortgage Boom Is Fading

A decline in demand is fueling price wars across the mortgage industry, pushing down profits

May 9, 2021 5:33 am ET

The housing market is as hot as ever. The mortgage market, though, is losing steam.

Homes are selling at a blistering pace unseen since before the financial crisis, pushing up home values in nearly every U.S. ZIP Code. Yet lenders are preparing for mortgage demand to cool in the coming months, the result of rising interest rates that make refinancing less attractive for a huge chunk of borrowers.

The anticipated decline in mortgage volume is setting off price wars across the industry. That is driving down profit margins and spooking the shareholders of mortgage firms that went public closer to the height of the lending boom.

Rocket RKT -4.84% Cos., the parent of Quicken Loans, said last week that it expects its gain-on-sale margin, a measure of how much lenders earn when they sell loans, to decline in the second quarter. The profit margin would be the company’s narrowest since before the mortgage boom. The forecast drove shares of several nonbank lenders to double-digit losses last week, analysts said.

“The message from all the companies that have reported financials publicly is that competition has increased significantly,” said Guy Cecala, chief executive of Inside Mortgage Finance.

Last year was a banner one for the mortgage business. Lenders originated a record $3.83 trillion in home loans in 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Mortgage rates that dipped below 3% for the first time and changes in the ways Americans work and live pushed up demand for both refinancings and purchase loans to levels that strained many lenders. To stem the influx of applications, lenders raised rates. But their own borrowing costs stood still. Profit margins rose sharply.

This year, total originations are expected to fall to $3.3 trillion, a 14.2% decline. Still, at that level, 2021 would rank among the best years on record.

“This year is still expected to be a great year, probably the second-best year in history,” said KBW analyst Bose George. “But it’s just that directionally, [mortgage volume] is going down.”

A drop in refinancing activity is a big reason why. With the 30-year mortgage rate near 2.97%, about 14.5 million Americans could lower their monthly mortgage payments through a refinancing, according to mortgage-data firm Black Knight Inc. That is down from 18.7 million near the start of the year, when mortgage rates reached a record low of 2.65%.

Still, the good news for borrowers is that lenders are now vying for customers by lowering the rates they charge.

That translates into lower profits for lenders. When lenders make mortgages cheaper, the gap between the rate they charge for the loan and how much it costs them to make it shrinks. Loans with smaller gaps are worth less when sold to investors in the secondary market. That reduces the gain-on-sale margin, or the amount lenders earn on each loan they sell.

Competition among lenders in the wholesale mortgage channel, where borrowers secure loans through individual mortgage brokers instead of banks or nonbank mortgage lenders directly, is driving much of the decline in lending margins, analysts said.

Lenders that extend mortgages directly to borrowers are under less pressure. Lenders in the retail channel, as it is known, tend to have higher margins than their wholesale counterparts because they don’t share the gains with brokers.

Rocket reported a margin of 3.74% in the first three months of the year, down from 4.41% in the fourth quarter of 2020. It also said it expects the measure to fall to a range between 2.65% and 2.95% in the second quarter.

“We’re kind of back to some of the historical longer-term margins that we’ve experienced, which on our platform are still very profitable,” Rocket Chief Executive Jay Farner said during a call with analysts.

Rocket’s stock price fell nearly 17% to $19.01 the day after the company’s earnings report.

Shares of UWM Holdings Corp. closed at a record low last week after Rocket’s earnings. UWM, the country’s largest wholesale lender, reports first-quarter results Monday.

Home Point Capital Inc. shares fell close to 18% Thursday after the company said its wholesale-lending business broke even in April. HomePoint acquires most of its loans through wholesale lending.

 

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44 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

It still baffles me that within the parties involved in a RE transaction the seller has to pay the fees of a buyer's agent that is actively working against the seller's best interest.  

I sold a home in AZ several years ago where the buyer’s agent was the 21 year old sister of the buyer. She was the receptionist at the family company and had never handled a RE transaction before. My agent had to do all the work and even had to call the buyer’s agent’s broker several times to get the dingbat agent from doing things that were unethical or illegal. It burned me up that I had to pay that idiot 3% for doing less than nothing in the transaction. 

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2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Any experiences with using a credit union for a refi?

I used United heritage a couple of years ago and had a very positive experience. Fees were similar to others. Rate was good at that time. They also agreed to service it which I preferred.

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4 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Any experiences with using a credit union for a refi?

Nothing wrong with them at all, and as mentioned above a good portion of them carry/service their own notes.  I would say to get another quote for comparison purposes.  Sometimes we can't touch what the CU is offering a client, but a decent amount of the time we can beat it especially as a broker.

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3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Nothing wrong with them at all, and as mentioned above a good portion of them carry/service their own notes.  I would say to get another quote for comparison purposes.  Sometimes we can't touch what the CU is offering a client, but a decent amount of the time we can beat it especially as a broker.

You guys do California? 

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On 5/9/2021 at 5:45 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- that’s why I said from summer time. Is the supply chain fixed by August?  Maybe. Maybe not. But yeah- that’s totally true. 

I’m going with no by August. We still don’t have material that we needed for the 1st quarter and plenty of our 2nd quarter material is no where in sight.

We have paid ransoms on steel pipe of over $100k just to get material.

One major issue I see coming down the pipe is the back log of housing closings. We are in all 4 major markets and did over 13000 houses of plumbing last year plus another 8000 of HVAC and electrical, so we have a pretty good sample size for the Texas market.

We keep getting grounds released but we aren’t getting top outs builders are starting record number of houses but they are just sitting for weeks or even months depending on the builder at stages they never used to. Build times are getting even longer. For instance KB used to build in 100-110 days consistently but now we have houses that have taken 160-180 days. The time just keeps creeping up.

Also it seems to be a new issue every week that then creates a different material shortage and that in turn causes more delays.

Edited by LebongJames
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17 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Where are we now on rates VS historical, both jumbo and conventional (30 yr)?

When I started in 2008 5.0 was the norm. Conventional is 2.75ish. Jumbo with our new lender is right behind it at 2.875ish. Assuming solid credit 

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On 5/10/2021 at 4:44 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Where are we now on rates VS historical, both jumbo and conventional (30 yr)?

796518789_ScreenShot2021-05-11at8_55_31PM.thumb.png.5f9b4bd521aa07712197535f3ccd613f.png

 

 

Jumbo loans aren't as easy to track, since they aren't backed by Fannie/Freddie, but they are mostly consistent with conventional loans.

We are at all time lows, and the question is whether or not they can go any lower. Some speculate they could go down to near-zero. Some think 2% is as low as they could possibly go.

 

 

 

 

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Heck, rates don't seem to matter recently for me.  We started looking for a new house about when Quarantine started and have made 5-6 offers since then houses and have been beat supposedly every time by "cash" offers in the DFW area.  How does someone have 800-900k cash?  Is there some secret to this phenomena?  

 

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Heck, rates don't seem to matter recently for me.  We started looking for a new house about when Quarantine started and have made 5-6 offers since then houses and have been beat supposedly every time by "cash" offers in the DFW area.  How does someone have 800-900k cash?  Is there some secret to this phenomena?  
 

Selling a house in a HCOL area. Or, hell, at this point, selling a house in central Austin/Dallas.
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