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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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That’s crazy. They’re valuing that lot at 850? 
nuts. So by time you build reasonable house etc you’re in at 1.4-1.6?
Austin has gone insane  
 

Always wondered why that neighborhood hadn’t been more desirable due to proximity to downtown and Town Lake. I guess it’s finally happening.
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There's enough room on 360 to put a light rail.  Can we do that?  I have no idea what you do once you get to Lake Austin, but the first part would be fun.  

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5 hours ago, Lobo said:

There's enough room on 360 to put a light rail.  Can we do that?  I have no idea what you do once you get to Lake Austin, but the first part would be fun.  

Serious lulz on a train on 360, I can’t even imagine the chaos those community feedback meetings would bring.

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This is just stupid what I'm seeing today rate wise.  like 1.875% on a 15 no discount points, 2.5% on a 30 kind of stupid.  Depending of course on loan size, credit blah blah blah.  

I can't see it going lower. Last time it happened we got so much work nobody could do anything and the entire industry went haywire.  Who wants to price that way?

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20 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is just stupid what I'm seeing today rate wise.  like 1.875% on a 15 no discount points, 2.5% on a 30 kind of stupid.  Depending of course on loan size, credit blah blah blah.  

I can't see it going lower. Last time it happened we got so much work nobody could do anything and the entire industry went haywire.  Who wants to price that way?

I was happy to hear this, but just heard the job reports will make rates go up?

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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

What are the actual rates?

Ha- I said 20  year typing on my phone but I obviously meant 10 year...

On Wednesday when I put that blurb up I'd just put someone in a 15 year at 1.875 (no discount points) and a 30 year cash out at 2.625% (so- with the typical 1/8 rate hit for a cash out that's the functional equivalent of 2.5%).

Today- the average national rates (per my pricing software that aggregates such things) is 2.999 on a 30 and 2.247 on a 15. Now, like I said my pricing is typically better than national average on my pricing tool so that's not comparing apples to apples, but with the caveat that every loan is different so you aren't ever pricing the same deal the same way ever I'd think rates have moved 1/4 off that rock bottom low I talked about on Wednesday morning.  Still ridiculously good even at the national rate.  Shop around to a local guy and you ought to beat that (and if you don't call me), but I don't think anyone can do what I was putting people into on Wednesday morning at this time).  If you put a gun to my head and tied me to an ant hill and it was a good loan, and I had the time and inclination to do it, and there was a bit of a favor involved I could still get a 15 year that started with a 1, probably, but who knows.   Just about everyone was getting that from me on Wednesday morning as a standard course of business (locked 4 or 5 loans that morning).  

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ha- I said 20  year typing on my phone but I obviously meant 10 year...

On Wednesday when I put that blurb up I'd just put someone in a 15 year at 1.875 (no discount points) and a 30 year cash out at 2.625% (so- with the typical 1/8 rate hit for a cash out that's the functional equivalent of 2.5%).

Today- the average national rates (per my pricing software that aggregates such things) is 2.999 on a 30 and 2.247 on a 15. Now, like I said my pricing is typically better than national average on my pricing tool so that's not comparing apples to apples, but with the caveat that every loan is different so you aren't ever pricing the same deal the same way ever I'd think rates have moved 1/4 off that rock bottom low I talked about on Wednesday morning.  Still ridiculously good even at the national rate.  Shop around to a local guy and you ought to beat that (and if you don't call me), but I don't think anyone can do what I was putting people into on Wednesday morning at this time).  If you put a gun to my head and tied me to an ant hill and it was a good loan, and I had the time and inclination to do it, and there was a bit of a favor involved I could still get a 15 year that started with a 1, probably, but who knows.   Just about everyone was getting that from me on Wednesday morning as a standard course of business (locked 4 or 5 loans that morning).  

And refis are entirely different right?

 

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Can the kid handle my refi?

He actually can do my job probably. He knows how to talk three C’s of buying a home “cash, credit and capacity”. He Might suck at structuring a rate but he understands more about what I do than his mother does for example. 

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15 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not anymore.  Now that the adverse fee has gone away its same same.  That's the 5 day chart- pretty wild how much it's gone up in the last 48 or 60 hours or so. 

Nm

Edited by KYHorn
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16 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He actually can do my job probably. He knows how to talk three C’s of buying a home “cash, credit and capacity”. He Might suck at structuring a rate but he understands more about what I do than his mother does for example. 

Steer him towards being a real estate appraiser. Helps both of you. 

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3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Steer him towards being a real estate appraiser. Helps both of you. 

Oh my gosh yes. Yes yes yes. If the real estate appraisal game doesn’t automate in about 10 years when he’s entreating the work force that would be an incredible first job and would also help the shit out of me. 
Matt was trying g to get my dad to go into appraisal world and then he fell and is now a paralyzed 3 year old at the moment ☹️

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12 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Plus he can suck at it, Miss deadlines, take forever and still get paid a lot 

Truer ducking words man. 
we had one clear to close on Monday. Documents at title company on Tuesday. (Friday closing). He sends a revised appraisal saying subject to smoke detectors so they yank it from CTC and my ops manager spends like 6 hours over the next two days, along with $275.00, and it took until noon Friday to finish it. I could have killed that moronic aggy

he was so proud of himself. I save lives what do you do? was his exact question. 

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1 hour ago, CHIEF said:

Mt mother has been on to me about getting an appraiser's license. All the ones around here are so busy they don't want to take an apprentice on. I'm not gonna drive an hour each way just to follow someone around.

CHIEF

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PROS: you can make a shitload of cash in a low-rate environment.  If rates are declining, you can recycle the same clients over an over and over.

 

CONS:  you have to pretty much be a moron/aggy to be in the industry, as far as I can tell based on a few decades experience. 

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Oh my gosh yes. Yes yes yes. If the real estate appraisal game doesn’t automate in about 10 years when he’s entreating the work force that would be an incredible first job and would also help the shit out of me. 

I work in the appraisal field, albeit focusing on multifamily instead of single family. In my professional opinion, a computer can do an appraisal (we’ve automated a decent chunk of our work) and the whole field could be largely automated save for two major pitfalls:

1.) Existing appraisers are entrenched and have quite the gatekeeping mechanism with existing licensing bureaucracy. The sector will be protected from automation for a while because of that. As of now there’s still a need for good, versatile junior staff, in smaller numbers but with more variety in their duties. A good chunk of what I was originally hired for has been mostly automated.

2.) Appraisals as they exist now are highly selective snapshots of the market - only using a handful of sale and expense comps. Automation enables the use of a higher volume of data and hamstrings the ability to nudge conclusions in the direction that supports a deal. I’m not sure how common this is in single family, but that ability to essentially cherry pick the few comps that kind of support the borrower’s iffy deal parameters is pretty important in commercial real estate.
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We get an appraisal waiver on a good portion of our refinances, and I feel like at least half of Purchases could probably be automated as well. But a good portion of our business right now is cash out refinances which need an in person appraisal. I agree that eventually through some method it needs to be 95% automated. 

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21 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

PROS: you can make a shitload of cash in a low-rate environment.  If rates are declining, you can recycle the same clients over an over and over.

 

CONS:  you have to pretty much be a moron/aggy to be in the industry, as far as I can tell based on a few decades experience. 

Man, there are some unethical fools in the industry.  Nobody on this board or their associates, for the record.

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On 8/7/2021 at 9:51 PM, Gil Bang said:

PROS: you can make a shitload of cash in a low-rate environment.  If rates are declining, you can recycle the same clients over an over and over.

 

CONS:  you have to pretty much be a moron/aggy to be in the industry, as far as I can tell based on a few decades experience. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "industry" if you mean mortgage specific or real estate in general.  I can tell you this from being in real estate for 20 years as a real estate attorney, title company fee attorney, president and now owner of my own title company, and guy that has negotiated contracts for myself and family and super close friends (so performing a real estate function) that I think mortgage guys are probably at the top of the pyramid of being least moron/aggy in the sector and realtors are at the bottom.


It's really hard to talk about "realtors" though since there is such a huge delta between good ones (and we've talked about this before I can tell you are a good one with all your input and stories and experiences) and bad ones (the vast vast vast majority of your field- the waste of space donut eaters that perform 1-3 transactions a year- in a good year- that make up 80% of the profession.  

Title typically has some snap to them- at least here in Texas it's a Darwinian process where the best of the best 18 year old girls straight out of high school eventually end up running branches 10-20 years down the line, but the pool of applicants typically isn't all that great.  You aren't going to find a lot of real smart people, but competent and capable seems to be the order of the day from the survivors.


If you are talking about mortgage in particular being moron's I guess I will say I disagree (while I probably have at least a few customers saying I resemble that remark).  I'm a top 2 or 3% guy by closing numbers so I'm exempting myself from this- the same way I'm exempting you from it- but I think what's required of lenders compared to what's required of agents to get a deal done is higher, so it leads to a bit of a higher floor for the worst of us.  

 

To the original question you answered of "is it a good idea to by a mortgage broker?" I will just say that I love my job at the end of the day. I help people with their biggest financial decision in life, and get paid to do it (by someone else).  The more people I help the more I get paid. It's pretty cool to wake up and calculate that you saved your customers from a month $1,000,000+ over life of loan, or when you help someone buy a place of their own and cement likely middle class status and they cry at the closing table.  

Are there more rewarding and important things to do in life? Undoubtedly. But it's a pretty good living, for a not super difficult job if you set it up right and put in the right infrastructure.  

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I just fucked around with Opendoor for the first time.  Holy shit, it's like AOL for real estate.  It's beyond archaic and disconnected.  They pulled all my home data from Travis CAD but didn't bother to pull the current assessed value.  So they walk you through all the upgrades you've made to your home and then they come back with an estimate under what the county assesses you at, not even taking into account market comps.  What a worthless tool.  It's all a driver to put you in touch with a realtor in your area.  Yet another bizarre marketing tool.  I just don't understanding the residential marketing ecosystem at all, I guess.  

I'm watching homes trade at $700/foot with no sign of slowing (not my street by not terribly far away).  And to stay competitive, this realtor sends a questionaire about whether or not we have horses or asbestos on our property.  As if she cut and pasted it from some Fannie/Freddie checklist from 1995.  

Edited by Lobo
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6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I just fucked around with Opendoor for the first time.  Holy shit, it's like AOL for real estate.  It's beyond archaic and disconnected.  They pulled all my home data from Travis CAD but didn't bother to pull the current assessed value.  So they walk you through all the upgrades you've made to your home and then they come back with an estimate under what the county assesses you at, not even taking into account market comps.  What a worthless tool.  It's all a driver to put you in touch with a realtor in your area.  Yet another bizarre marketing tool.  I just don't understanding the residential marketing ecosystem at all, I guess.  

I'm watching homes trade at $700/foot with no sign of slowing (not my street by not terribly far away).  And to stay competitive, this realtor sends a questionaire about whether or not we have horses or asbestos on our property.  As if she cut and pasted it from some Fannie/Freddie checklist from 1995.  

I have a lot of experience around Opendoor. Except for a few rare circumstances where a home seller hits the jackpot when Opendoor misprices the amount they will pay for your home, for the most part Opendoor is for people with not a lot of money, who aren’t very financially competent, and too lazy to ensure their house is presentable. In other words, about 70% of the population. Im exaggerating for effect, but in general it’s not a good deal.

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My experience with Redfin is similar.  Their assessment of my home value is probably 25% low based on their values for houses on my street (much older, somewhat smaller, and smaller lots, but valued well above my own). 

I'm pretty sure they intentionally lowball the homeowner just to create a possible discount purchase.

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