Jump to content

All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Numbers from daughters refinancing. 3.625 for 30 year, good credit, 25% down conventional refinancing. Origination fee is $750 on a $245k loan. Have to decide today on whether to lock.

I locked the same rate yesterday morning, though bigger loan but still conforming. I got a promise to float down if rates are lower after approval.

Things are so volatile and, the prevailing view seems to be to lock quickly. 

I defer to our resident mortgage experts though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We walked away from a 3.125% 30 year fixed on a new house a few days ago because we were worried our current house wouldn't sell with the new economic reality that was setting in.

Still interested in refi on current house, but not sure rates will make sense to for a while...our current mortgage is a 3.625% 30 year fixed (got in Fall 2013).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, APMP said:

We walked away from a 3.125% 30 year fixed on a new house a few days ago because we were worried our current house wouldn't sell with the new economic reality that was setting in.

Still interested in refi on current house, but not sure rates will make sense to for a while...our current mortgage is a 3.625% 30 year fixed (got in Fall 2013).

I'm a builder.  No customers in 2 weeks.  My houses are built without financing but dang.  No one.  I started my business in 2006.  Reminds me of those times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a builder.  No customers in 2 weeks.  My houses are built without financing but dang.  No one.  I started my business in 2006.  Reminds me of those times.

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah it's tough. We loved the new house, neighborhood, schools, etc. It was considerably bigger than our current place, so would've been better to hunker down in with two toddlers while working from home for the next few weeks.

 

But we were worried about being stuck with two mortgages in this climate where even relatively safe jobs are seeing pay cuts.

 

I hope that we have flattened this curve enough by the summer to have more certainly about things. At that point, assuming our financial situation is similar to what it is now, we'll start house hunting again.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, APMP said:

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah it's tough. We loved the new house, neighborhood, schools, etc. It was considerably bigger than our current place, so would've been better to hunker down in with two toddlers while working from home for the next few weeks.

 

But we were worried about being stuck with two mortgages in this climate where even relatively safe jobs are seeing pay cuts.

 

I hope that we have flattened this curve enough by the summer to have more certainly about things. At that point, assuming our financial situation is similar to what it is now, we'll start house hunting again.

 

Two mortgages is a deal breaker for sure.  Correct move.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah it's tough. We loved the new house, neighborhood, schools, etc. It was considerably bigger than our current place, so would've been better to hunker down in with two toddlers while working from home for the next few weeks. 
But we were worried about being stuck with two mortgages in this climate where even relatively safe jobs are seeing pay cuts.
 
I hope that we have flattened this curve enough by the summer to have more certainly about things. At that point, assuming our financial situation is similar to what it is now, we'll start house hunting again.
 


Definitely what I’m worried about on a considerable upgrade in houses
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So, mortgage backed securities down 200 points today. On a day the Dow is down 10%. On a day the 10 year is up 20% in the yield (yields being inverse to price). 

I guess the money decided- screw it- we are burying cash in a coffee can in the back yard. 

 

Pricing in default risk.  Ctrl Alt+P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They aren’t screwing you. It’s real. I’ve never seen anything like it in one day. 

I didn't intend to imply that they were, I'm just not going to act at those numbers. I've been checking their website several times a day to see how the numbers are fluctuating. It's bizarre.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Sandman said:

I didn't intend to imply that they were, I'm just not going to act at those numbers. I've been checking their website several times a day to see how the numbers are fluctuating. It's bizarre.

Sure. No reason to act at all today.  I’m not trying to get anybody to fee sorry for me- bc as far as things go with this I’m super blessed to be in the industry I am in- but trying to make a living , guide customers, or help people in this environment is a beat down. Stuff is unraveling by the minute. Seemingly at random. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

We're basically back to around the 1.3's we were at before all of this started, so if anything hopefully this helps stabilize the lenders so we can get back to normal, not torqued up pricing. 

I was discussing this with my production partner today- how much do you believe the “torqued up” pricing is worth in the market right now?  He said 0.375 to rate. I said 0.75% to rate. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

We're basically back to around the 1.3's we were at before all of this started, so if anything hopefully this helps stabilize the lenders so we can get back to normal, not torqued up pricing. 

 

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was discussing this with my production partner today- how much do you believe the “torqued up” pricing is worth in the market right now?  He said 0.375 to rate. I said 0.75% to rate. 

can you explain this in non-mortgage-knowledgable terms? Are rates slated to go up to down over the next few days/weeks? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

can you explain this in non-mortgage-knowledgable terms? Are rates slated to go up to down over the next few days/weeks? 

Lenders (some, not all, but most of the big ones) had beefed up their rates to slow down the slew of refinances that were coming in because of where the market was.  They just simply couldn't handle the demand, so in an effort to cinch off the feed of files coming in they raised their rates to slow it down.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

can you explain this in non-mortgage-knowledgable terms? Are rates slated to go up to down over the next few days/weeks? 

Next few days? Who knows... weeks?   Same answer. Months- I’d guess they almost have to fall. Unless we are going to decouple mortgage from 10 year treasury forever. Which I suppose could happen. 

Basically when rates fell off a cliff we d n industry hit full capacity and pricing stopped resembling basic fundamentals as we’ve known them because everyone as running at full capacity and redlining operations. 

At some point in time- the hope is- we see surplus capacity and pricing resembles normal fundamentals again so it behaves in a way we can expect and anticipate and isn’t capricious. 

The question I was asking Phil is how much he thinks the capacity see is affecting where we are in pricing. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Daughter decided to lock this morning with an option to float down between now and closing if rates drop by 1/4 point or more. The brokers and lenders I talked with felt we will see 2.99 or 3.25 sometime in the next month or two, but given the craziness of rates, daughter just decided to move forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

Daughter decided to lock this morning with an option to float down between now and closing if rates drop by 1/4 point or more. The brokers and lenders I talked with felt we will see 2.99 or 3.25 sometime in the next month or two, but given the craziness of rates, daughter just decided to move forward.

Good time to lock this morning. 

Fyi tonall out there- you can pretty much always renegotiate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/17/2020 at 2:34 PM, bluto said:

VA vs conventional saga continues.... house listed at 275 in DFW area, conventional initial offer was 250, VA was full ask. 'best and final' from conventional was 264 and they have all their ducks in a row. VA offer still hasn't gotten pre qual letter or even a formal offer over, just a realtor email/loi type deal. house only been re-listed since friday after a couple winter months of shit head realtor listing it ineffectively. 

if VA offer doesn't have its shit together I think we're going to go back to conv at 264 with not a penny out of my pocket beyond commissions. 

 

I won't even present an offer if the buyer isn't pre-qualified.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, L.A. county is clamping down on open houses, and our local board is supposed to issue an advisory that they shouldn't be held. 

I held very busy ones last week.  I washed my hands every 10 minutes or so, and blasted every surface with lysol every half hour or so. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I locked the day after the first rate cut on a 30 year conforming @ 3.0% no points nothing due at closing except escrow. 

I love my broker. 

That was the deal at the best of times. Had 1 guy sneak in a 2.875 but basically you win the prize for great timing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Figure I'll just wait a while.  We have 3.25 w/23 years left on the loan; want a 15 to refi, but unless the interest gets to 2.5 or so, we might as well just pay extra on what we have.

Depending upon how much you owe might not even make sense then... I personally think 2.5 on a 15 is definitely on the table- but might be months away. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Depending upon how much you owe might not even make sense then... I personally think 2.5 on a 15 is definitely on the table- but might be months away. 

$244. 

And I agree; unless we can shave at least 3/4 of a point off of what we have today, there might not be much sense in doing a refi.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Figure I'll just wait a while.  We have 3.25 w/23 years left on the loan; want a 15 to refi, but unless the interest gets to 2.5 or so, we might as well just pay extra on what we have.

You basically have a 15 year rate, so just pay it like a 15.

 

10 year down .18 so far today and DJI up (for now).  Just another day in this new norm of craziness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Horns99 said:

Jumbo 30 yr rate @ 5% ? Was freaking 3.50% 2 weeks ago


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Welcome to the living nightmare that is trying to be a mortgage guy right now. 

MBS were up 116 points when I started my call with my production partner at 9:30 or so.  By the time we hung up they'd lost 87 points or something and were down to "up 33" or something.

I think I'm going to start drinking in the morning now.  

Before yesterday I'd have said dont worry- we will see it back down to 3.5% in a month or so.  Now?  No idea.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not yet, because you haven’t seen people panic selling but yeah, at some point in time valuation on homes are going to tank and that shit sandwich will be lots of fun to eat. 

Theoretically.  But no one is panic selling, and if anything ABOR and HAR numbers are very strong right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Theoretically.  But no one is panic selling, and if anything ABOR and HAR numbers are very strong right now.

Sure, Right now nobody is panic selling. But, wait until unemployment hits double digits, sidelines a bunch of borrowers, and sellers want to access their only net worth in the world. It’s coming, I’m 100% certain. I also think it’s 3-6 months out before we will see appraisals diminish much. 

You cant have a recession without falling home prices.  there is no way we are dodging a recession.  The question is- when does this start showing up on appraisals?  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Austin has the benefit of starting this shitshow at a point of unprecedented growth.  Growth has driven demand.  I don't expect that influx of people to drop to zero in the next few months, but of course it should abate some.  

I would not be shocked to see Austin prices drop during the fall by an amount that's not all that different than normal seasonal fluctuations.  An extended recession would certainly change that outlook -- I don't have the numbers on hand, but I seem to recall seeing 20% drops in value during prior recessions.  Anybody have ABOR or Texas A&M data handy?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's some info that pretty much corroborates my gut, with the biggest % drop by far coming during the 1985-1990 slump (~ 27% drop).  Otherwise, 5% is about as big as it gets.  This is median price for Austin - RR - GTown, individual price points and neighborhoods could of course vary:

fredgraph.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Foreclosures and evictions suspended for 60 days

Foreclosures and evictions suspended "at least" 60 days.  Look for announcements over the weekend for a nationwide SIP.  Big move.  Lots of movements with county closures (who cares what your rate is if the title company is unable to issue a policy), front-porch closures, ROMS, GAP policies, and other changes.  Look for a jump in PIWs and rumors of 1004s pivoting to 2055s.  

Fuck your cheese, we're moving mountains at this point.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Mind sharing what you're seeing? 

On a 30 yr 740 Cr 70 LTV we were seeing a little over 4 (big lenders were purposely pricing 4.0+ horribly since secondary and hedge aren’t buying above it) but when I checked around 245 it was a 3.625 on that same deal 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

About two weeks ago I had three offers on my house, all above asking price. The highest offer was actually more attractive than the others for other reasons as well, quicker closing, more money down, friendly leaseback terms, etc. That’s the offer I went with. They bailed on the deal yesterday. We reached out to the other offers but it sounds like they’re all under contract on other houses now. Mine’s going back on the market Monday.  Not too worried about it, I think it will still sell quickly again but I’d like to make that happen sooner than later.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...