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Brexit shenanigans


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2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Do they have time to do a re-vote?  (popular vote on Brexit, not Parliament on May)

Various EU people have said that they can back out of brexiting and that they can have more time.

 

And a re-referendum is just re-stupid. A non binding referendum do over, its getting more and more regarded.

Edited by relapse98
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14 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:


At this point i would have to think yes.

The whole exercise was maddeningly stupid to begin with.

This, 1000X this.  Having people vote on a fantasy idea was stupid.  Deciding to take such fundamental, far-reaching action, on a simple majority vote for a fantasy idea was stupid (we don't amend our constitution based on a 50.000001% vote of the people to "make the Constitution mo betta!").  At the very most, they should have scheduled two votes from the beginning.  Vote 1: if 60% vote "yes" to "negotiate terms for Brexit," then the gov't should have negotiated terms.  Then, at the second vote (scheduled for, say, now), the vote is "accept the following terms for Brexit and leave," or "reject the following terms, and remain."  Super majority to sign a letter of intent, then the same super majority to approve or reject final terms.

Of course, what a responsible government would have done would be to enter into significant negotiations with the EU over the supposed problems with the EU, and do the hard work of improving the existing framework.  Cameron fucked up.  Hard.

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39 minutes ago, relapse98 said:

Various EU people have said that they can back out of brexiting and that they can have more time.

 

And a re-referendum is just re-stupid. A non binding referendum do over, its getting more and more regarded.

If they don't re-vote, the leave people in Parliament will freak. At least a re-vote gives everyone cover when they stay in the EU.

Assuming, of course, remain wins the second time around.

Edited by David Dennison
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Wasn't May on the side if staying in the EU? Once the vote to leave was made, what fucking sense does it make to have her party lead the negotiations for a separation she was never in favor of in the first place? That seems like a recipe for ....well, what we have now. 

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Wasn't May on the side if staying in the EU? Once the vote to leave was made, what fucking sense does it make to have her party lead the negotiations for a separation she was never in favor of in the first place? That seems like a recipe for ....well, what we have now. 
She's a remainer and Corbyn is a eurosceptic. How's that for irony?
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Just now, Thetexashammer said:

Somebody explain this "second" referendum to me. You get a second one, which amounts to a tie. Don't you need a third, to break the tie?

First is a "letter of intent."

Second is on the actual "proposed deal."

Just like most other deals.  You decide to pursue the deal.  Then, once you've negotiated the best deal you can, you decide whether to do it.  There is no third vote.  They don't cancel each other out because they are about different things.  The first was for the idea.  The second is for the reality.

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You posted upthread about how the reality is much worse than what was expected. The opposite is actually true. Here are some examples. And yes, I fucking saved this one, I waited for the perfect time. Fucking sue me or whatever. /noshame

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2018/12/26/brexit-project-fears-best-scare-stories/

Quote

The Remain campaign’s outlandish prophecies of recession and world war following a Leave vote became infamous during the EU referendum — and have been revived stronger than ever as EU loyalists attempt to derail or water down Brexit.

Claims a vote to Leave the European Union would inflict an “immediate and profound shock” on the British economy, tipping the country into recession and throwing between 500,000 and 800,000 people out of work proved to be dramatically wrong after the public defied establishment expectations and backed Brexit, with the Bank of England’s chief economist admitting the episode had been something of a “Michael Fish moment” for the so-called “experts”.

The failure of Project Fear to persuade voters in 2016 has not dissuaded EU loyalists from adopting similar tactics to try and persuade the public to either change their minds or accept a kind of “Brexit In Name Only”, or BRINO — anything but a clean “No Deal” exit on World Trade Organization terms.

Britain Would Run out of Clean Drinking Water

Bureaucrats at Michael Gove’s Department for the Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) claimed that a No Deal Brexit could result in a shortage of chemicals required to purify drinking water, and that suppliers “would probably need to stop the water supply to all their customers — potentially millions of people” in short order.

Why being outside the EU’s Customs Union should have such a dramatic impact on a famously wet United Kingdom while countries such as Norway and landlocked Switzerland — both European countries outside the EU — seem unaffected was never made clear.

The NHS Would Run out of Essential Medicines

While the drinking water threats have gotten little traction, repeated claims that No Deal could see the National Health Service (NHS) run short of essential medicines appear to have caused more consternation, with even Theresa May piping up to say her diabetes medication is made in the EU.

Again, however, the claims appear to lose credibility when one considers that there are no mass shortages of insulin, epilepsy medication, and so on in Western European countries outside the EU’s Customs Union, nor in relatively remote Western countries such as Australia and tiny New Zealand — neither or which have a Free Trade Agreement with the EU.

Leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation terms would leave the UK able to trade with the EU — and the rest of the world — on the same terms as those countries first world countries that remain able to maintain public health without being EU members.

Cheese to Become an “Occasional Luxury”

Less serious — and still less credible — than the warnings over drinking water and medicine, was the idea that No Deal could see butter, yoghurt, and cheese could become “occasional luxuries” in Britain — a country which is a major producer of all three product varieties, and where they were staples long before EU (or EEC) membership.

“Brexit Threat to Sandwiches”

Evidently thinking food-related scare stories would have the most personal impact on the British public, the dairy shortage claims were followed by warnings of a “Brexit Threat to Sandwiches” reported by BBC business editor Simon Jack, citing a single unnamed source.

Sandwiches were, of course, invented in Britain long before the EU was ever heard of, at a time when the country was not just not in a customs union with Continental Europe, but actively at war with most of it.

Britain Could Run out of Mars Bars “Within Weeks”

Despite the sandwich famine story being roundly mocked by most observers, similar threats that No Deal could see Mars bars have been issued as Brexit Day looms.

This did not appear to have the desired effect either, however, with Boris Johnson speaking for many when he asked: “Are we really going to abandon Brexit because of a Mars bar shortage?”

Planes Will Be Banned from Irish Airspace

One of the more provocative No Deal threats was issued by the pugnacious Irish Taoiseach (prime minister), Leo Varadkar — despite the fact his country stands to lose more than any other EU member-state from Brexit.

This threat evaporated fairly quickly when it became apparent how many Irish flight paths have to cross British airspace, however.

We’ll All Catch Super-Gonorrhoea 

Another health-related claim, this time about an increase in disease rather than a shortage of medicines.

Claims have been circulated that infectious diseases such a super-gonorrhoea will supposedly be harder to combat outside the European Union — a dubious proposition, given many such diseases are introduced to the country via immigration, and Brexit will increase control over this.

Illustrating the sick claim was Labour’s Lord Malloch-Brown, who helps to co-ordinate the George Soros-funded campaign to thwart Brexit, saying Britain will become a “mangy old lion”.

“Almost More Damaging than the Second World War”

Finally, Sir Richard Branson, a vociferous billionaire anti-Brexiteer who lives outside the European Union on a private island, gave EU president Donald Tusk’s old 2016 warning that a Leave vote could mean “the end of Western political civilisation” a run for its money by claiming No Deal would be “more damaging to Great Britain than almost the Second World War”.

The Second World War saw almost 400,000 British servicemen killed in action, as well as close to 70,000 civilians including women and children slain, many in the indiscriminate bombing campaign conducted by the Luftwaffe during the Blitz and the later V1 and V2 rocket bombardments.

Much of that is tongue in cheek. But Branson was completely serious about "almost as bad as WWII". So were all the other loons. I know there are some real negatives, I'm actually curious as to what they might be, since all I've heard are hysterical apocalyptic fantasies.

They're fucked either way but there are nearly 200 counties in the world that govern themselves, I don't see how the UK can't manage.

 

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I'm far from well-informed on this but from what little I have seen the concern over addressing the Northern Ireland and Irish Republic border is pretty significant.

It's like no one thought this through beforehand.  Reminds me of how another administration currently operates.

Edited by DDD Dad
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22 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This, 1000X this.  Having people vote on a fantasy idea was stupid.  Deciding to take such fundamental, far-reaching action, on a simple majority vote for a fantasy idea was stupid (we don't amend our constitution based on a 50.000001% vote of the people to "make the Constitution mo betta!").  At the very most, they should have scheduled two votes from the beginning.  Vote 1: if 60% vote "yes" to "negotiate terms for Brexit," then the gov't should have negotiated terms.  Then, at the second vote (scheduled for, say, now), the vote is "accept the following terms for Brexit and leave," or "reject the following terms, and remain."  Super majority to sign a letter of intent, then the same super majority to approve or reject final terms.

Of course, what a responsible government would have done would be to enter into significant negotiations with the EU over the supposed problems with the EU, and do the hard work of improving the existing framework.  Cameron fucked up.  Hard.

Yep.  Cameron fucked up massively.  

He misread the mood of the country.  May inherited the shitshow that Cameron left her.  

A second popular vote needs to happen to give Parliament cover.  

It is frustrating that the EU is as bloated as ever, and the sam problems that existed in 2016 are no closer to being solved.  Britain was in a great negotiating position as the second largest economy in the EU after Germany.  Now, it will be interesting if they end up staying.

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7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Yep.  Cameron fucked up massively.  

He misread the mood of the country.  May inherited the shitshow that Cameron left her.  

A second popular vote needs to happen to give Parliament cover.  

It is frustrating that the EU is as bloated as ever, and the sam problems that existed in 2016 are no closer to being solved.  Britain was in a great negotiating position as the second largest economy in the EU after Germany.  Now, it will be interesting if they end up staying.

Well, "Fuck you, I"m leaving" is a TERRIBLE negotiating tool.  It gives the opposition only two choices: 1) "Fine, suit yourself," or 2) "Please don't go!"  Any of ya'll ever watch one of your friends (male or female) pull that shit in a relationship?  It never works out like option 2.  It is effectively guaranteed to elicit option 1.

The UK indeed WAS in a great negotiating position.  Had the people simply insisted, with a unified voice (it would have garnered much more than 52% of the vote) to "use our fucking balls in negotiating changes with the EU, including an alternative of leaving if proper changes aren't made,' that would have been much more effective at bringing about positive change.

Also, the Economist had a good one this week:

DxIBGlXWoAI85ae.jpg:large

Edited by Brisketexan
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51 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, "Fuck you, I"m leaving" is a TERRIBLE negotiating tool.  It gives the opposition only two choices: 1) "Fine, suit yourself," or 2) "Please don't go!"  Any of ya'll ever watch one of your friends (male or female) pull that shit in a relationship?  It never works out like option 2.  It is effectively guaranteed to elicit option 1.

The UK indeed WAS in a great negotiating position.  Had the people simply insisted, with a unified voice (it would have garnered much more than 52% of the vote) to "use our fucking balls in negotiating changes with the EU, including an alternative of leaving if proper changes aren't made,' that would have been much more effective at bringing about positive change.

Also, the Economist had a good one this week:

DxIBGlXWoAI85ae.jpg:large

You and I are on the same page.  I wish they had been smarter and done, as you said "use our fucking balls in negotiating changes with the EU, including an alternative of leaving if proper changes aren't made."

Unfortunately, politicians will fuck up a wet dream.

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On 1/15/2019 at 2:24 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

How much longer until Corbyn and May go away forever? It seems like these two have been at the top forever and they both suck.

They make me miss Tony Blair.

"Can we PLEASE just go back to grinding the bones of the poor into dust with polite, smiling faces!?!?" the centrists scream.

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3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Lol, some jerkoff up thread posted Breitbart as proof of something in reality.  Fuck off.

 

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Nobody read it or replied.  As is appropriate.

My general approach to the consumption of media is that everyone has an agenda, and so my interest is in discovering as many facts as I can, from sources with different perspectives, and then make up my own mind. If you listen to exclusively NY Times, MSNBC, and NPR, you done fucked up. If, as I do, you listen to BBC on Sirius on the way to work, read various random links, and get the "other side" of Brexit from Brietbart, you might be somewhat informed. I don't really feel I have a great basis for drawing firm conclusions, but on the other hand, I don't reject out of hand factual information because it fails to confirm my own personal biases. Which is what you two and others here are doing. 

I frankly don't think you can form an informed opinion if you aren't informed. I mean, it's fucking tautological.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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My general approach to the consumption of media is that everyone has an agenda, and so my interest is in discovering as many facts as I can, from sources with different perspectives, and then make up my own mind. If you listen to exclusively NY Times, MSNBC, and NPR, you done fucked up. If, as I do, you listen to BBC on Sirius on the way to work, read various random links, and get the "other side" of Brexit from Brietbart, you might be somewhat informed. I don't really feel I have a great basis for drawing firm conclusions, but on the other hand, I don't reject out of hand factual information because it fails to confirm my own personal biases. Which is what you two and others here are doing. 
I frankly don't think you can form an informed opinion if you aren't informed. I mean, it's fucking tautological.

You regularly cite the most fringe, biased sites (including some that are nothing but loony advocacy)on the far right.
You don’t get to lecture anyone on media consumption.
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17 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

CNN, the NYTIMES, Breitbart, Shaggybevo. It's a veritable cornucopia of scoundrels, vagrants, addicts, sinners, and ne'er do wells. 

Hey, remember when the president, for whom you no doubt voted, told his lawyer to lie to congress?

I remember. 

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Buckethead Johnson should be put in the Tower over this. 

What a jackass. Outright lies and hubris - never a good combination, of course, if you believed that the UK could've recouped 1/3 of a billion pounds a week simply by leaving the EU then you're the equivalent of a Trump voter.

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22 hours ago, hayden_horn said:

Hey, remember when the president, for whom you no doubt voted, told his lawyer to lie to congress?

I remember. 

Hahahahahha. You're so fucking gullible. Buzzfeed. 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mueller-team-disputes-buzzfeed-report-claiming-trump-told-cohen-to-lie

This is the Brexit thread. What the fuck were you even talking about? 

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Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage has endorsed a new pro-Brexit party as he vowed a return to frontline politics if Britain doesn’t leave the EU on March 29.

The MEP for the South East was approached last week by former activists for Ukip who have applied to register the Brexit Party with the Electoral Commission.

Former Ukip economics spokeswoman Catherine Blaiklock has applied to register the new party, according to The Sun on Sunday.

The paper said that Mr Farage had been sounded out as a possible leader.

Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage who is reported to be considering a return to frontline politics (PA)

He told the paper: "This was Catherine's idea entirely - but she has done this with my full knowledge and my full support.

"If the Government goes back on its word and betrays the millions of people who voted for Brexit then we need a party prepared to stand up and fight for it.

"I'm fully prepared for Article 50 to be extended or revoked and if that happens, I will re-enter the fray."

...

More:  https://news.yahoo.com/nigel-farage-backs-brexit-party-102500649.html?.tsrc=jtc_news_index

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The only thing you really need to know about Brexit is the folks most in favor and promoting the idea of leaving the EU were the first to head toward the doors when the vote passed.  You see they realized they endorsed stupidity and that their basic premises were bullshit.  They endorsed something on a very simplistic, gut level, and the reality was their gut didn't contemplate any of the complexities... so they ran away from the problem THEY created.  

This dynamic has not changed.  It's hard to get a "smart" deal when stupidity was the cayalyst.

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If you want to take a quick break from the fuckupedness in our own country for a couple of minutes, read up on how things are going in the preparations for Brexit.

Businesses Are Taking Action After Brexit Warnings Go Unheeded

Companies and trade groups had implored British leaders to give them reassurances and information. They say they can’t wait any longer.

Businesses have been sounding the alarm over Britain’s impending departure from the European Union ever since its approval in a 2016 referendum. But this week, with lawmakers unable to agree on any sort of orderly plan as the March deadline for a deal nears, their warnings rang louder — and some decided to act.

Airbus and Bentley called the prospect of Brexit without an agreement a “killer” and a “disgrace.” Sony, concerned about Brexit-generated disruptions, said it would move its European headquarters from Surrey to the Netherlands. Other companies are furiously stockpiling supplies, while civil servants are scrambling to prepare for emergency arrangements.

While politicians may yet pull together a deal before March 29, analysts say businesses have run out of time. The precarious state of affairs is already damaging the economy.

“Until the middle of last year, it was a slow burn — we lost about 2 to 3 percent of output,” said Amit Kara, head of British macroeconomic research at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. “My feeling is it has gathered a little bit of pace since then.”

Manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to invest in uncertain political and economic conditions, according to a survey published this week by the Confederation of British Industry, and some business leaders are going public with their frustration.

“They’re breaking cover because they’re feeling close to the edge at this point,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London.

Airbus, which employs about 14,000 people in Britain making wings for its aircraft, said that if the country left the European Union with no deal, supply-chain disruptions would force it to look to move its factories elsewhere.

“Make no mistake: There are plenty of countries out there who would love to build the wings for Airbus aircraft,” Tom Enders, the chief executive, said in a video posted on YouTube this week.

Spoiler

 

The British transportation industry imports a large portion of its parts from the European Union and sells a large portion of its products there. Airbus warned last summer that a Brexit without a replacement deal could cost it more than $1 billion a week.

In his video, Mr. Enders called it a “disgrace” that businesses still did not have enough information to make plans.

“Please don’t listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that, because we have huge plants here, we will not move and we will always be here,” he said, referring to supporters of Brexit. “They are wrong.”

Since Parliament defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan last week, lawmakers have been battling over a second, similar plan she presented. Mrs. May has refused to rule out leaving the European Union without an agreement, gambling that lawmakers will back her rather than allow that possibility.

“The U.K. is not and cannot be ready for a ‘no deal’ Brexit,” Carolyn Fairbairn, the director general of the Confederation of British Industry, said Tuesday. “Only Parliament can avoid it, and now is the time to do so.”

The chief executive of the Civil Service, John Manzoni, conceded that his organization would not be fully prepared. “Will things be a bit bumpy? Of course, they will,” Mr. Manzoni said Tuesday at the Institute for Government, a British policy group.

The chief executive of Bentley, Adrian Hallmark, told Reuters on Tuesday that his luxury car company had been headed for a turnaround after a year of losses, but that political events could scupper its plans.

“It’s Brexit that’s the killer,” he said.

Another carmaker, Jaguar Land Rover, confirmed on Thursday that it would pause production for a week in April to deal with potential disruptions.

Companies are planning stockpiles of parts and supplies — if they can find room. The United Kingdom Warehousing Association surveyed its members last month and said three-quarters were already full and unable to take on more business.

Many businesses also do not have the money to stockpile and prepare, said Mr. Kara of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. “If we did have a hard Brexit, the shock would be quite significant,” he added.

UK in a Changing Europe, a research group, has estimated that leaving without a deal could reduce Britain’s gross domestic product per capita by as much as 8.7 percent over 10 years from what it would be if the nation remained in the bloc.

“What you see here is a bit of frustration that the U.K. government could have handled it so badly and ignored the concerns of business,” said Mr. Portes of King’s College London, who is also a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe.

Even if an agreement is reached in time, the turmoil of the debate will have a lasting impact, he said.

Airbus has made it clear that “when it comes to the next big investment decision, the U.K. is not going to be on the list,” Mr. Portes said. “In the medium to long term, it’s clear that it’ll have a large negative effect on any future negative investment.”

Foreign direct investment in Britain is already 19 percent lower than it would have been had the referendum not happened, according to researchers at the University of Sussex.

Dyson, the home appliances company, denied on Tuesday that its decision to relocate move its headquarters from England to Singapore was related to Brexit, but few saw it as a vote of confidence for the business environment in Britain.

And Brexit might not be the only challenge for the British economy, Mr. Kara said. The global economy is slowing, and Britain is likely to be vulnerable should there be another shock to it, he said.

“It’s like a country that has an armed force that is able to battle on one front, but if another front opens up, we are certainly more vulnerable than many other countries,” he said.

 

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Well, here's the thing.  Britain shooting its dick clean off will pummel the shit outta the pound.  As my daughter is contemplating going to school in the UK, every percentage drop in the exchange rate is 1% I save on tuition etc.  So....the UK's loss could be my gain.  And really, am I not the most important person we're talking about here?

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  • 2 weeks later...
Quote

A compromise Brexit plan has emerged overnight in Westminster with the backing of heavyweight Tory Brexiters and remainers, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nicky Morgan.

Two factions have thrown their weight behind the unexpected new compromise plan, backed by several ministers, which would involve a redrafting of the backstop and an extension of the transition period until 2021.
...

More:  https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/the-malthouse-compromise-everything-you-need-to-know-brexit-vote

It sounds more like an idea than a plan. 

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On 1/25/2019 at 1:41 PM, Brisketexan said:

Well, here's the thing.  Britain shooting its dick clean off will pummel the shit outta the pound.  As my daughter is contemplating going to school in the UK, every percentage drop in the exchange rate is 1% I save on tuition etc.  So....the UK's loss could be my gain.  And really, am I not the most important person we're talking about here?

Back around 2000, I had kids in HS in the UK.  The pound was very strong.  I'd get the tuition bill, wire the funds that day, and get a notice the next day that I owed $700 or such due to currency changes over the intervening days.

Don't plan on visiting her there.  You will just hemmorage money.  More, that is.

 

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10 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Theyve been talking about that "plan" for a while. Its almost certain to happen too. All it does is kick the Brexit can down the road to 2021. 

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