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Digital Horse Racing (ZED & NFTs)


Nice Guy Eddie

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

There are 2 elements missing that could add some fun: jockeys and pari-mutuel betting.  Give the owner a free jockey for the race but allow them to hire a better jockey for 1 race.

Besides just not winning, I'm annoyed that Reasonable never finishes last. 40 races and 0 12th place finishes. Zed rewards the Ricky Bobby strategy: either get 1st or last. Last helps lower your class points to get the races easier.

if want a horse that looooves finishing 4th, then take a gander at my pride and joy, Energy Rush: https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/21743  I am entering as many cheap races as i can to take data.  

I seen talk of a U-shaped finish profile being ideal, meaning lots in the money and lots in 11th/12th.

 

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20 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

if want a horse that looooves finishing 4th, then take a gander at my pride and joy, Energy Rush: https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/21743  I am entering as many cheap races as i can to take data.  

I seen talk of a U-shaped finish profile being ideal, meaning lots in the money and lots in 11th/12th.

 

Reasonable is an upside down U. https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/14572

Next races:

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can someone do me a favor?  look at my stable and tell me how many horses are in there: https://zed.run/stable/ncp-sombra

weird glitch for several hours now.  I had put a bid on a horse.  It looked liked the owner then took down the auction and the horse disappeared.  on and off the amount would show deducted from my WETH in ZED, but a refresh would always come back with the right amount.

Then l look just now and the 2nd horse is showing up, but sometimes my wallet has full amount and sometimes it does not.  metamask wallet is showing full amount and horse is not showing up in my opensea/metamask account.

- horse is https://zed.run/racehorse/21001.  knowyouhorses still shows it as in the other stable, but that can be slow to change most times.

crazy shit.  i would like to keep and pay for the horse.  it could be a monster.  but who knows what is going on.

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9 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

can someone do me a favor?  look at my stable and tell me how many horses are in there: https://zed.run/stable/ncp-sombra

weird glitch for several hours now.  I had put a bid on a horse.  It looked liked the owner then took down the auction and the horse disappeared.  on and off the amount would show deducted from my WETH in ZED, but a refresh would always come back with the right amount.

Then l look just now and the 2nd horse is showing up, but sometimes my wallet has full amount and sometimes it does not.  metamask wallet is showing full amount and horse is not showing up in my opensea/metamask account.

- horse is https://zed.run/racehorse/21001.  knowyouhorses still shows it as in the other stable, but that can be slow to change most times.

crazy shit.  i would like to keep and pay for the horse.  it could be a monster.  but who knows what is going on.

Did you get ounces and pounds?  That looks like a good horse

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8 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

can someone do me a favor?  look at my stable and tell me how many horses are in there: https://zed.run/stable/ncp-sombra

weird glitch for several hours now.  I had put a bid on a horse.  It looked liked the owner then took down the auction and the horse disappeared.  on and off the amount would show deducted from my WETH in ZED, but a refresh would always come back with the right amount.

Then l look just now and the 2nd horse is showing up, but sometimes my wallet has full amount and sometimes it does not.  metamask wallet is showing full amount and horse is not showing up in my opensea/metamask account.

- horse is https://zed.run/racehorse/21001.  knowyouhorses still shows it as in the other stable, but that can be slow to change most times.

crazy shit.  i would like to keep and pay for the horse.  it could be a monster.  but who knows what is going on.

Damn, that looks like a quality horse.  Where did you buy it and how much was it - if you don't mind sharing?

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Ran across this stable that got in when it first started... quite the collection of 316 horses now:

https://zed.run/stable/spiltan

Breakdown:  Type/Count

Z1    52
Z2    88
Z3    84
Z4    42
Z5    5
Z6    2
Z8    6
Z9    2
Z10    31
Z12    1
Z14    1
Z21    1
 

At last auction rates would be ~ $4-5MM

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I can't decide if I should buy a horse from the marketplace now or wait for the next drop and hope I can catch one. 

 

Is there an online tool to help assess value or find value or are you guys just digging through the Opensea marketplace and looking at horses until you think you've found decent value?

How would you compare these two?  One is a Z9 that has run 42 races and won 0, priced at .155 ETH and the other is Z24 that has won 5% of 40 races run and is priced at .165 ETH.

https://matic.opensea.io/order/75226

https://matic.opensea.io/order/75877

Edited by The Royal We
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8 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I can't decide if I should buy a horse from the marketplace now or wait for the next drop and hope I can catch one. 

 

Is there an online tool to help assess value or find value or are you guys just digging through the Opensea marketplace and looking at horses until you think you've found decent value?

How would you compare these two?  One is a Z9 that has run 42 races and won 0, priced at .155 ETH and the other is Z24 that has won 5% of 40 races run and is priced at .165 ETH.

https://matic.opensea.io/order/75226

https://matic.opensea.io/order/75877

KnowYourHorses.com is great place to start, looking at win graph and odds. Odds right now are very telling.  I haven't run across too many people selling horses that are worth a darn.

https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/6140

https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/19474

First horse (Reaper) might be one of the worst I've run across..

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7 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

KnowYourHorses.com is great place to start, looking at win graph and odds. Odds right now are very telling.  I haven't run across too many people selling horses that are worth a darn.

https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/6140

https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/19474

First horse (Reaper) might be one of the worst I've run across..

That's handy, thanks.  And yea, Reaper is sporting the upside down U that is trash.

It might be better to buy a cheap one that has fewer races in the hope that the owner just hasn't found the ideal race type yet?

https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/16911

This one is listed with a minimum bid of .1 ETH

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12 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

That's handy, thanks.  And yea, Reaper is sporting the upside down U that is trash.

It might be better to buy a cheap one that has fewer races in the hope that the owner just hasn't found the ideal race type yet?

https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/16911

This one is listed with a minimum bid of .1 ETH

Fewer races is definitely better, but watch this video. This guy gives pretty good insight.  He (and many other long term players pretty much feel the odds (being visible) are currently a problem and that "good" players can tell how good a horse is after only 3-4 races: 

 

 

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so here is what i have picked up on how to try and judge a horse.  break it down in 2 categories 

1) Already raced - look at the Griffon race (first race) and look at the odds.  anything in single digits is good.  under 8 better.  under 5 could be a monster.  Saw one horse under 4 and dude said he turned down a 5ETH offer and this was for a Buterin. (https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/26271).  That guy is going to be able to sell the foals for $$.

-- always always check on kyh AND ZED before buying.  opensea lags terribly on if something is raced or not raced.  I did not check and thought i was buying an unraced horse, but then i got it and it had 10 races with crappy odds.

-- again this is the only correlation I have seen with good ROI, they always have a good first race odds.

2) Not raced - it's like a box of chocolates.  you could pop that first race and 3-5x what you paid for it or draw 20+ odds and be on the struggle bus.  But here the Bloodline and Breed and Zenotype matter.  Lot of people are keeping them unraced to maintain value in market not wanting to risk drawing bad odds.

-- Bloodline + Breed; So a Genesis horse is truly one of a kind and ZED has listed out the total # of Genesis horses to ever be minted.  Having a Genesis horse means you will always be able to breed a Legendary (if paired with another Genesis).  Pricing is going to reflect that.

obviously lots of other stuff as you get into horses that were bred.  Bred horses have different Breeds as you get further away from Genesis.

So you can filter zero races or by win % and # of races along with all the Bloodline/Breed/Zenotype in open sea.  I look at horses and then paste the name into kyh to see odds.  that helps cut through a lot of fodder.  Also you can search by 'recently sold' to get an idea on what horses are actually selling for.  

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47 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I can't decide if I should buy a horse from the marketplace now or wait for the next drop and hope I can catch one. 

 

Is there an online tool to help assess value or find value or are you guys just digging through the Opensea marketplace and looking at horses until you think you've found decent value?

How would you compare these two?  One is a Z9 that has run 42 races and won 0, priced at .155 ETH and the other is Z24 that has won 5% of 40 races run and is priced at .165 ETH.

https://matic.opensea.io/order/75226

https://matic.opensea.io/order/75877

Stated above, but I wouldn't buy either. Reaper has a good ROI but I bet it's mainly run in free races. FYI for everyone: Zed infrequently pops up a free entry race that has a small payout for winning. You have to be quick to join. 

Repeated info but never hurts to repeat good info. I discovered Red Bull by using http://zed-nucleus.com/opensea/ in the Active Listings section. The graph symbol next to the name allows you to look at the stats and odds for the horse. Red Bull and her sister, Tron had both only run their first race which Red Bull had odds of 9.8 and Tron had 18.9.  Based on how the races and odds are shown today, I would only buy a horse that was under 10 in a griffin race. If you can get one under 7 or 8, you may have a champ.

On other disclaimer. The stat sites are not always real-time. I've seen horse that show running 2 races on the stat sites but looking at Zed, they have 20 additional races today. be careful of those. if buying.

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6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Thank you all, great info.  And thanks for the link @Nice Guy Eddie - I've been stumbling through the default opensea marketplace that had fuckall for filter options - this is so much better.

But even with this, you know we are at a disadvantage. Guarantee there are developers out there that have a script that analyzes each horse for-sale and its stats within seconds. They're able to snipe good deals. You and I probably have to overpay to get the same level of horse by clicking on horses one at a time.

One area that needs improvement is displaying the historical odds for a horse when you're joining a race. Normally you don't have time to research the opponents. I'm surprised there isn't a chrome extension that automatically displays the historical odds for each horse for that distance. That would help. Any developers out there that can do this?

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

But even with this, you know we are at a disadvantage. Guarantee there are developers out there that have a script that analyzes each horse for-sale and its stats within seconds. They're able to snipe good deals. You and I probably have to overpay to get the same level of horse by clicking on horses one at a time.

One area that needs improvement is displaying the historical odds for a horse when you're joining a race. Normally you don't have time to research the opponents. I'm surprised there isn't a chrome extension that automatically displays the historical odds for each horse for that distance. That would help. Any developers out there that can do this?

Agreed on being at a huge disadvantage.  My first gut read is that my only hope if I've got an itchy trigger finger to get into the game is to buy an unraced horse with decent bloodline/zenotype and hope to get lucky.

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1 minute ago, The Royal We said:

Agreed on being at a huge disadvantage.  My first gut read is that my only hope if I've got an itchy trigger finger to get into the game is to buy an unraced horse with decent bloodline/zenotype and hope to get lucky.

For now, I think I'm going to just sit tight with my WETH and try and get a Genesis on the next drop. I tried last Friday but it was always bought by the time I got there but hopefully they fix the issue of people just giving their links away.

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3 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

For now, I think I'm going to just sit tight with my WETH and try and get a Genesis on the next drop. I tried last Friday but it was always bought by the time I got there but hopefully they fix the issue of people just giving their links away.

I wasn't switched on yet, what were horses going for in the last drop? 

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@NOMAAA @Angry Gorilla @huge @henrygandorf @PhillyD @ZB'Tejas @Baboontyme @MonkeyDoughnut @Here for Zed @Da Fino @Mr Bean @SquishMitten

Wednesday races

  • Red Bull https://zed.run/race/ujUdDkRr
  • Reasonable: failed to get him added to a race. Network error or he doesn't want to leave the stable. Will try later.
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16 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

A Z9 was $125

Z8 ~$350

Z7 - $650

Then on up to around $37K for a Z1

 

Z10 - $124 

Z9 - $209
Z8 - $330
Z7 - $625
Z6 - $1,509
 Z5 - $3,809
Z4 - $6,432
 Z3 - $13,602
Z2 - $19,538

Z1 - $36,900

 

 

That's what i saw on twitter as the pricing for the drop.

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3 hours ago, The Royal We said:

Damn, that looks like a quality horse.  Where did you buy it and how much was it - if you don't mind sharing?

bought on opensea yesterday for 1.2ETH ~$4950.  was listed at 1.5 ETH.  like NGE said in a previous post, finding low odds horses is difficult.  I saw it had G-race odds of 6.28 and was not selling for 3+ ETH and started seriously looking at if I wanted to drop that coin on it.  Tried 1 ETH, but no dice.

So check out his last race.  some very good horses in it.  https://knowyourhorses.com/races/yfZCCdW  ($25 entry) my horse finished 4th, but look at the G-race odds for the top 3.  They are all lower than 7 odds on G-race.  Syrax (https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/6573) is a progeny of WallStreet, Poseidon Racing's stud Z1 Nakamoto (https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/6573/ancestry)  Wallstreet pulled a 5 odds in the G-race and the Dame was unraced.  Syrax had a 7.  but look at that tomata' can at the bottom of the chart, Dragon Peak (https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/15687) .  the grandson of Wallstreet is a fucking dud.  50+ races and no wins and only two 2nds.  drew 18 G-race odds (or 10...some of the older horses look like they have 2 G-races)

it kinda sucks that this seems to be such a big determination of success, from at least what I have seen.  From my frustration with my other horse (Energy Rush) i am not sure what to do with it.  probably just keep it 'cuz it's a genesis and may be valuable later on when no more drops occur. 

 

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I might have heard it on Clubhouse but there was something about everyone that owns a Genesis horse could eventually have some sort of ownership of the platform. I'm not sure if it was royalties of what but they talked about Genesis horse owners benefiting from that long term.

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1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

^^ So the owners of RM need to incorporate now? This whole fake horse business is getting serious. I guess if we ever end up with a horse that could make serious money, we should draw up some agreements.

is there any way of knowing current value of our pre-dog-food?

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9 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Plug the particulars into the recent sales section of this and you'll get a pretty decent idea of value:

http://zed-nucleus.com/opensea/

also, if you search on the regular opensea.io (not the matic.opensea.io) you can dial in stuff even better with the races.  you can set a range of # of races and range for win %.  At least all the sorting option are on the left side of the screen for me.

and obligatory "about tree-fiddy" for the current value.

 

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https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/23385

beast of a horse at Buterin.  just listed for 3 ETH.  7 races total and won all 3 at 1000m. 4.9 odds at G-race.  

- just graduated to class III from class IV so they are trying to sell before any class III data is known.

- sold for .24 ETH 4 days ago.

 

check out this one.  1000+ races; 2.25 ETH profit, beautiful U-shaped finish profile https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/16896

- bred from 2 parents with 13+ odd in G-race

- in a race with this on later https://zed.run/race/CppzIH1p   

 

 

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@NOMAAA @Angry Gorilla @huge @henrygandorf @PhillyD @ZB'Tejas @Baboontyme @MonkeyDoughnut @Here for Zed @Da Fino @Mr Bean @SquishMitten

Evening races:

36 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/23385

beast of a horse at Buterin.  just listed for 3 ETH.  7 races total and won all 3 at 1000m. 4.9 odds at G-race.  

- just graduated to class III from class IV so they are trying to sell before any class III data is known.

- sold for .24 ETH 4 days ago.

Great stats. It probably will pay off in the long run even at 3 ETH. I would be willing to buy it but would only want 10-20%. We're here to gamble, right?

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

@NOMAAA @Angry Gorilla @huge @henrygandorf @PhillyD @ZB'Tejas @Baboontyme @MonkeyDoughnut @Here for Zed @Da Fino @Mr Bean @SquishMitten

Evening races:

Great stats. It probably will pay off in the long run even at 3 ETH. I would be willing to buy it but would only want 10-20%. We're here to gamble, right?

there's a finite number of races, right?  the max on the slider in opensea sorter is 2030.

It will be interesting to see what breeding rights even cost.  can you set your own price for stud fees?  but you could probably sell an unraced foal from that horse for at least 1 ETH.  I think i saw mares will be able to birf 2 foals per month.

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3 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

there's a finite number of races, right?  the max on the slider in opensea sorter is 2030.

It will be interesting to see what breeding rights even cost.  can you set your own price for stud fees?  but you could probably sell an unraced foal from that horse for at least 1 ETH.  I think i saw mares will be able to birf 2 foals per month.

It's not known if there is a finite # of races. I've seen the opinion that there should be a limit even if it's high like 5,000. This prevent someone from lucking into the best horse and running it 100x per day forever. If you had a top level horse but could only race it 3000 times, you would start being selective in races.

 

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This is right at Drop pricing (Z5 were going for $3800) With ETH dropping a little its at $3950 right now

https://opensea.io/assets/matic/0xa5f1ea7df861952863df2e8d1312f7305dabf215/23981

unraced Z5 Finney filly Genesis

I would be down for pitching in on something like this.  I am also scouting for an unraced Buterin Genesis, but those are still 4-5x drop prices right now.  Saw a 11 odds G-race for $800, but depending on when the next drop is better deal might be had.

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7 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

This is right at Drop pricing (Z5 were going for $3800) With ETH dropping a little its at $3950 right now

https://opensea.io/assets/matic/0xa5f1ea7df861952863df2e8d1312f7305dabf215/23981

unraced Z5 Finney filly Genesis

I would be down for pitching in on something like this.  I am also scouting for an unraced Buterin Genesis, but those are still 4-5x drop prices right now.  Saw a 11 odds G-race for $800, but depending on when the next drop is better deal might be had.

It’s raced now and odds are not the best: https://zedrun.tools/horse/23981

I’m not saying this is the best horse but a z9 genesis (<.5 Eth) like reasonable but with better odds in class 4 and 3 than Red Bull. He hasn’t made much money but that can just be bad luck. https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/20200 

 

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Day races. Watch them at your leisure:

Reasonable: 

 Red Bull: 

I imagine races are a bit chaotic right now. With so many new horses minted last week, they're being raced to find their potential. New good horses might be dominating the lower classes on their way to the high classes.  Donkeys are being raced once and then placed for sale. 

@gsoda3

@NOMAAA @Angry Gorilla @huge @henrygandorf @PhillyD @ZB'Tejas @Baboontyme @MonkeyDoughnut @Here for Zed @Da Fino @Mr Bean @SquishMitten

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seems like the races are getting tougher, but I am only seeing class III races.  less donkeys.  had 4 straight 3rds then a 2nd in my last 5 but can't get in the winner's circle.  Still need to race some more different distances to start seeing more data.

1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I wouldn't overspend of genesis horses right now. By all measure, bred horses are where the racing "beasts" will come from. I'd wait for breeding to open back up.

sorta agree.  i don't know how much breeding rights are.  Depending on how close they are to drop prices.  

ETH is down, so decent time to buy i guess.

 

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FOMO got the better of me and I made a low-ball offer on an unraced Z19 crossbreed. 

The mare it was breed from is a Z3 Nakamoto with only its G race with 6.6 odds.  The stallion only had it's G race too with 19.26 odds, so it's a crap shoot.  I offered .1 and they seller hasn't been active on Opensea at all this week, so who knows when it will be accepted/rejected. 

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5 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

FOMO got the better of me and I made a low-ball offer on an unraced Z19 crossbreed. 

The mare it was breed from is a Z3 Nakamoto with only its G race with 6.6 odds.  The stallion only had it's G race too with 19.26 odds, so it's a crap shoot.  I offered .1 and they seller hasn't been active on Opensea at all this week, so who knows when it will be accepted/rejected. 

go for it!  there are some deals to be had.  barely missed on one last night.  sub 6 odds Buterin for .45ETH, but missed it by like 15 mins.  The sale was being slow so i put an offer in and said accepted, but gave it to the person who bid earlier.  Saw another Finney that wend overnight that i might have looked at.

 

giphy.gif

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