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Austin Regional Thread


Horny Bull

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Guest Lobo

2011 Regional/Supers were so awesome in a terrifying nail-biter kinda way.  Won 4 straight elimination games to beat Kent State to take the Regional.  Turn around and have to win 2 straight versus ASU to make it back to Omaha.  Don't want to talk about that particular CWS appearance though.  

I'm hoping, a decade later, this one goes a little smoother.  

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Assuming we take care of business against Southern, these are (presumably) the #2 starters from the other side of the regional:

Fairfield: Jake Noviello - 1.44 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 0.204 BAA, 56-7 SO/BB

ASU: Justin Fall - 3.86 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 0.258 BAA, 45-32 SO/BB

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13 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I was going to say that ASU brings back some happy memories. The 2011 Super Regional as well.

 

9 minutes ago, Lobo said:

2011 Regional/Supers were so awesome in a terrifying nail-biter kinda way.  Won 4 straight elimination games to beat Kent State to take the Regional.  Turn around and have to win 2 straight versus ASU to make it back to Omaha.  Don't want to talk about that particular CWS appearance though.  

I'm hoping, a decade later, this one goes a little smoother.  

Jesus, that was 10 years ago already?

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43 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Colgate basketball was pretty good. They gave Arkansas a run for their money.

Not sure I'd Equate Fairfield to Colgate, when viewed Close Up it seems like a Reach.  They're past their Crest so now's the time to Act.  Wear out their Arms and Hammer them.  They don't have the best AIM, watch out for brushback pitches.

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1 hour ago, Lat22 said:

So we’ll have to go through Arizona St., Florida or maybe Miami before getting to Omaha. Pretty cool. 

Gata is the one that worries me.  They are hot or cold.

We catch 'em hot and it's gonna be tight.

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Southern went 0-6 against Q1 opponents. Closest game was a 5-1 loss at Louisiana Tech (game 2 of a weekend series).

Arizona State went 7-11 against Q1 opponents. They had a home-and-away midweek series with Nevada, winning both games 13-4 and 14-11. Nevada started Shane O'Malley against them both times (3.0 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 SO, 4 BB against us) and ASU didn't have much trouble with him either time.

Fairfield did not play a Q1 opponent. They were 14-2 against Q2 opposition, but all of those games were at home. The best opponent they played on the road was #130 Niagara (four-game sweep), whose RPI is about 20 spots worse than Abilene Christian and Sam Houston State and 20 spots better than BYU. Exactly half of their games came against Q4 opposition, and 70% of those Q4 games were played at home.

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Guest Lobo

It's usually not until late Monday night of Announcement Day to nail down specific game times because of TV.  LHN has cleared their broadcast Schedule on Saturday so I'm hopeful we get our game televised. I think we should sellout without much effort. 

Of course, an Arizona State/Texas matchup that day would be very tempting to ESPN/2/U...so we could end up starting at a goofy time to accommodate that, perhaps even playing before the loser bracket game.  I think a lot of college baseball fans nationwide are also very curious to see Fairfield play should they stay in the winner's bracket.  

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2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I wonder if either Fairfield or asu feels comfortable enough with the other that they throw their #2 starter and hold their ace back for us. 
 

does southern have anyone of statistical note on their staff?

Fairfield would have to be fucking delusional to do that. 

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Guest Lobo

Yeah, Fairfield has to go with Noviello for their opener with Arizona State.  Whatever the result, they throw Sansone (their lefty) against their Saturday opponent.  Unless ASU has an overwhelming number of lefties in their batting lineup, too lazy to look it up. 

Arizona State likely throws left-hander, Justin Fall against Fairfield.  Which works because Fairfield plays for singles and doubles, and Fall pitches to contact.  (1.38WHIP and not a strikeout pitcher).  Saturday, against whomever---they throw their strickeout pitcher, Tyler Thornton.  Their other starters are complete question marks with ERA's in the 5's & 6's with nary a guy capable of going 5+ innings.  They'll patchwork after Saturday's game.   

Neither program has the staffs to go 4-1 this weekend in Austin.  But both teams can hit, Arizona State can play defense well, and we can certainly beat ourselves.  

We get the rotation right, we win Friday and Saturday.  Drop Sunday.  Win Monday.  3-1, Champs.  I don't know that we'll ever see Fairfield.  

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6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, Fairfield has to go with Noviello for their opener with Arizona State.  Whatever the result, they throw Sansone (their lefty) against their Saturday opponent.  Unless ASU has an overwhelming number of lefties in their batting lineup, too lazy to look it up. 

Arizona State likely throws left-hander, Justin Fall against Fairfield.  Which works because Fairfield plays for singles and doubles, and Fall pitches to contact.  (1.38WHIP and not a strikeout pitcher).  Saturday, against whomever---they throw their strickeout pitcher, Tyler Thornton.  Their other starters are complete question marks with ERA's in the 5's & 6's with nary a guy capable of going 5+ innings.  They'll patchwork after Saturday's game.   

Neither program has the staffs to go 4-1 this weekend in Austin.  But both teams can hit, Arizona State can play defense well, and we can certainly beat ourselves.  

We get the rotation right, we win Friday and Saturday.  Drop Sunday.  Win Monday.  3-1, Champs.  I don't know that we'll ever see Fairfield.  

Drop Sunday? Stevens or Hansen lose? No way. If we go 2-0 we are sweeping.

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Guest Lobo

I'm guessing ESPN moved that Sunday night possible championship game to 7:00p to get it for national broadcast on ESPN/2/U.  Otherwise, I was expecting the standard 1 & 6 which looks like the deal.  3:00p on Monday if necessary.  I'm gonna go ahead and clear my work schedule for that afternoon just in case (that game would be on ESPNU for those that cannot sneak away early).  I think Longhorn Network is gonna have the Saturday game, hope that does not effect attendance.  

I think all the lightning is gonna fuck with this schedule anyway though.  

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Guest Lobo

I thought the 2018 Regional weather was good.  The Supers were miserable because we played 3:00p every day against Tenn. Tech for TV.  And every inning of every game was in the sun in our seats.  This rain doesn't look like a deluge but lightning delays are a pain in the ass.  

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3 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, Fairfield has to go with Noviello for their opener with Arizona State.  Whatever the result, they throw Sansone (their lefty) against their Saturday opponent.  Unless ASU has an overwhelming number of lefties in their batting lineup, too lazy to look it up. 

Arizona State likely throws left-hander, Justin Fall against Fairfield.  Which works because Fairfield plays for singles and doubles, and Fall pitches to contact.  (1.38WHIP and not a strikeout pitcher).  Saturday, against whomever---they throw their strickeout pitcher, Tyler Thornton.  Their other starters are complete question marks with ERA's in the 5's & 6's with nary a guy capable of going 5+ innings.  They'll patchwork after Saturday's game.   

Neither program has the staffs to go 4-1 this weekend in Austin.  But both teams can hit, Arizona State can play defense well, and we can certainly beat ourselves.  

We get the rotation right, we win Friday and Saturday.  Drop Sunday.  Win Monday.  3-1, Champs.  I don't know that we'll ever see Fairfield.  

Arizona State can hit but they've had brutal injury luck on the mound. I believe they lost their 3 projected starters to Tommy John and their closer is also out for the year. 

They really struggled in the Pac 12 against the better teams. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I thought the 2018 Regional weather was good.  The Supers were miserable because we played 3:00p every day against Tenn. Tech for TV.  And every inning of every game was in the sun in our seats.  This rain doesn't look like a deluge but lightning delays are a pain in the ass.  

That’s more of an issue than it was not too long ago.   Wish they could refine the guidelines if it’s confirmed the storm is moving away from the stadium. Shorten the delay from 30 to 15 mins.  

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Texas got a pretty favorable draw, one of the easier regionals in the tournament so the committee in turn paired us with Florida who is not a 15 seed but the committee was going to pair us with Florida whether we were #2,3, or 4. All in all should be fun.

I imagine we throw Kolby game one and the bullpen arms we use will probably be dependent on how close the game is. If it is close you will likely see the usual, if not then probably see Shifflet, Cobb, Gordon, and Southard. 

Then if it were up to me I would throw Madden if it is Fairfield, Stevens/Hansen if it is Arizona State. Fairfield ain't seen anything like Madden in the MAAC or likely in their baseball careers. I prefer Stevens/Hansen in bigger games, they have shown to be better than Madden during bigger moments throughout the season. That being said I imagine Pierce just rolls with Madden game 2, Stevens game 3, and Hansen game 4.

Wright State against Tennessee and Mcneese St. against TCU are probably the two most likely 4 seeds to pull off upsets in the openers. Wright State is 35-11 and is a pretty salty club. Although they are 0-2 vs Vanderbilt and 0-3 vs Alabama, 3 of those 5 losses were by 1 run and they are hitting .342 as a team... Mcneese is going to throw a 5'10 lefty (with 106 Ks in 89.2 IP (.212 AVG against)) which has been TCU's kryptonite all year.  

Edited by chase25
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