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2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)


closetojumping

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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Boyd may be right, but that's not the "obvious takeaway". It's actually a logic trap, called a conjunction fallacy, that we often fall prey to in that the more specific and detailed a choice is vs the broadest and least detailed option, lazy thinking will immediately gravitate towards to the more complicated answer. Boyd has no idea whether the staff has decided the Buck role has to be fundamentally more adept at drops in the future. He doesn't speak to anyone on the staff and they wouldn't tell someone that anyway. 

The "obvious takeaway" is that Texas thinks it needs another Buck from the portal. So they're offering guys that they think can play the position. They need a body. If he's able to cover well beyond the ability to simply somehow be above replacement on the field in general, awesome. I also don't speak to the staff and can say with certainty that what I just offered up is more likely to be correct, mathematically.

More on the Conjunction Fallacy, or "The Linda Problem" is spoilered for those interested. 

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Regarding the conjunction fallacy, it's covered pretty well in a number of excellent and accessible books around why and how we make decisions, and behavioral economics. The Invisible Gorilla and Thinking Fast & Slow delve into studies that investigate it and both of those books are pretty fucking good if you're into that kind of thing.

Here's a link to a really simple breakdown of it as well:

https://jesusgilhernandez.com/2013/11/03/the-linda-problem-the-conjuntion-fallacy/

 

Judging from their targets in 2022 class for off ball linebacker it seems the mold they want for that position is a guy like him or the Utah kid. What this does is give Ian the ability to talk up the inevitable IT "position change" narrative about him.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Judging from their targets in 2022 class for off ball linebacker it seems the mold they want for that position is a guy like him or the Utah kid. What this does is give Ian the ability to talk up the inevitable IT "position change" narrative about him.

Who the fuck knows. It was broken last year, so feel free to speculate about anything. I watched Ovie (Buck) run up the field 10 yards past everyone, so I am all for watching Buck run 10 yards backwards. It maybe an oversteer, but fuck it, its different

 

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1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

Who the fuck knows. It was broken last year, so feel free to speculate about anything. I watched Ovie (Buck) run up the field 10 yards past everyone, so I am all for watching Buck run 10 yards backwards. It maybe an oversteer, but fuck it, its different

 

So you're speculating they'll hold the edge? lol 

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Per Nahlin:

 

Texas isn’t pushing for TCU transfer Khari Coleman. Our guys are predicting Ole Miss for the D-end.

Western Illinois DB Darius Joiner is still being evaluated but I would guess the staff will take a wait and see approach to see what other options enter the portal.

Regaring Mathis Top 5:

Best guess is Texas, OU, Clemson, Bama, and Ole Miss.

Best best guess: Texas.

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4 hours ago, Codaxx said:

Texas finished 100th in total defense. I would bet with competent play of the edge Texas gets inside the top 50

let's not use total defense, ever. it isn't 1970 anymore, there are a ton of better options out there that adjust for opponents, tempo and per possession data and that kick out garbage time.

Texas finished at #52 in DFEI and #67 in Defensive F+ (combined with SP+)

they were obviously fucking bad, but they were Miami or Michigan State Defense bad...not Kent State or Texas State or TCU defense bad.

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7 minutes ago, NoName said:

let's not use total defense, ever. it isn't 1970 anymore, there are a ton of better options out there that adjust for opponents, tempo and per possession data and that kick out garbage time.

Texas finished at #52 in DFEI and #67 in Defensive F+ (combined with SP+)

they were obviously fucking bad, but they were Miami or Michigan State Defense bad...not Kent State or Texas State or TCU defense bad.

I was thinking of you when I typed it. The ranking or stat wasnt very important. The idea was simply that Texas had a shit defense and I think the majority of it would be fixed with competent play on the edge. (Plus total defense is quickest to find, but I only use it when it really isnt the crux of the idea)

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2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I was thinking of you when I typed it. The ranking or stat wasnt very important. The idea was simply that Texas had a shit defense and I think the majority of it would be fixed with competent play on the edge. (Plus total defense is quickest to find, but I only use it when it really isnt the crux of the idea)

heh thanks i think?

i think we agree that better edge play (honestly, line play overall) would make a huge difference.

FEI link: https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei

 

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8 minutes ago, NoName said:

heh thanks i think?

i think we agree that better edge play (honestly, line play overall) would make a huge difference.

FEI link: https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei

 

I think the biggest issue by far was the edge. Rod Babers had a stat that opposing offenses were running at over 10 yards per carry in the D gap (forgot if that was right or left side). I believe he said that prior to the Kansas game. Texas didnt get gashed in the A/B gap often. They got destroyed C gap and out. When you are that bad on the edge, it just messes everything up. 

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4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Per Nahlin:

 

Texas isn’t pushing for TCU transfer Khari Coleman. Our guys are predicting Ole Miss for the D-end.

Western Illinois DB Darius Joiner is still being evaluated but I would guess the staff will take a wait and see approach to see what other options enter the portal.

Regaring Mathis Top 5:

Best guess is Texas, OU, Clemson, Bama, and Ole Miss.

Best best guess: Texas.

I thought we were in front because of the Patterson hire and you know "connections" . Hell the position is a need also and we arent pushing for him?

 

WTF? Did I miss something ?

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10 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

I thought we were in front because of the Patterson hire and you know "connections" . Hell the position is a need also and we arent pushing for him?

 

WTF? Did I miss something ?

We're pursuing Mathis (3ish posts before yours), not Coleman. Different TCU DE. 

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On 2/16/2022 at 3:05 PM, Getafix said:


Sweet offers but he signed with Vandy lol. All were probably non commitable.

Edited by Tommy Nobis
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I don't recall the exact stats. I believe it was something like 20% of the snaps had the buck dropping into coverage.

To the surprise of nobody here, with the situational awareness of a newborn, Ovie was terrible dropping into coverage.

Edited by pacman
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1 hour ago, UDontKnow said:

Du is French? I thought 'Du Hast' was German?

It's actually both with different meanings.  Du in German is the pronoun "you" (du hast translates as "you are"), whereas in French it is used as a prefix to names indicating "from".  Given the form in which it's used as a prefix in his name it would be consistent with the French usage.

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16 minutes ago, nunna yo bizness said:

It's actually both with different meanings.  Du in German is the pronoun "you" (du hast translates as "you are"), whereas in French it is used as a prefix to names indicating "from".  Given the form in which it's used as a prefix in his name it would be consistent with the French usage.

Should have been du hast is "you have".  I was thinking du bist.

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29 minutes ago, nunna yo bizness said:

It's actually both with different meanings.  Du in German is the pronoun "you" (du hast translates as "you are"), whereas in French it is used as a prefix to names indicating "from".  Given the form in which it's used as a prefix in his name it would be consistent with the French usage.

Spanish
Del (m) & De La (f)

Del = De+El

French:
Du (m) & De La (f)

Du = De+Le 

 

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  • closetojumping changed the title to 2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

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