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In general, Orlando's defense will look better against offenses that go to bigger sets and try to hammer us with power instead of using speedy WRs to go after our secondary. Think K-State, Iowa State, Georgia, etc.

I'd wait until Baylor and TTU roll around on the schedule before making grand pronouncements as to whether our issues are solved on defense or not.

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42 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Ish.  We played more men in the box starting half way through the second quarter.  We actually played a traditional 3-4 (which is what this team is at heart) and not surprisingly, virtually all aspects of the defense improved, particularly when paired with a press cover back. 
 

Orlando actually played the team and the odds instead of throwing “looks”

yep and we went to 4DL on third down some.  It is mind boggling what we did against TCU

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41 minutes ago, satyanash said:

In general, Orlando's defense will look better against offenses that go to bigger sets and try to hammer us with power instead of using speedy WRs to go after our secondary. Think K-State, Iowa State, Georgia, etc.

I'd wait until Baylor and TTU roll around on the schedule before making grand pronouncements as to whether our issues are solved on defense or not.

this is the problem.  he's here because his defense is SUPPOSED to be specifically for the OU/Baylor/Tech's of the world

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57 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

People were not telling you that and we weren’t running much 4 DL at all.

This isn’t really correct. 3 tite can utilize 4 LBs, but that doesn’t make it a traditional 3-4. We played 3 tite but we had more men at the line because of how many heavy sets KSU ran. We weren’t asking our DL to 2 gap, which would’ve been a 3-4. We were still running a 3 tite with our DL generally responsible for one gap. 

yes they were.  and we ran some 4DL.  I didn't say we ran it exclusively or even a lot. In fact I said that he needed to adjust and add some variety  which doesn't mean convert straight to the 85 bears.

I know what 3 tite gap responsibility is and you use "generally".  he changed it up and yes KSU ran more heavy personnel sets.  If he can't figure out how to stop offenses like LSU/OU/KU/Tech/Baylor then he isn't our guy.

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On 11/9/2019 at 5:55 PM, HtownHorn said:

Well whatever Orlando did in the 2nd half worked. Saw less stupid blitzes and more press coverage. Also saw Ossai attack the QB, and Mitchell come on run blitzes. Less is more with this defense. You have the athletes for the most part, stop taking them out of position.

Was it DOHrlandDOH though, or someone else? We have not seen a D like this in 81/2 games.

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19 hours ago, dcar00 said:

this is the problem.  he's here because his defense is SUPPOSED to be specifically for the OU/Baylor/Tech's of the world

Our defensive scheme matches up well with offenses like K-State. This disguised the fact that we still played quite poorly. InsideTexas wrote about it at length but the TL;DR is, don't get your hopes up for a big improvement or anything.

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

Our defensive scheme matches up well with offenses like K-State. This disguised the fact that we still played quite poorly. InsideTexas wrote about it at length but the TL;DR is, don't get your hopes up for a big improvement or anything.

Holding a P5 team under 60 yards in a half is impressive no matter what the opposing offense is like. I'm not holding out hopes for the rest of the season, but ISU has never done anything against Orlando, Baylor is a fraud, and Tech has lost 4 out of 5 on the road so far.

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

Our defensive scheme matches up well with offenses like K-State. This disguised the fact that we still played quite poorly. InsideTexas wrote about it at length but the TL;DR is, don't get your hopes up for a big improvement or anything.

Would you describe yourself as a glass completely empty or a glass half-full of poison, acid, and AIDS kind of guy?

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re: Interesting comparison of LSU’s opponentsPosted on 11/11/19 at 5:55 pm to WilliamTaylor21
 
quote:
- Utah State gave up 45 points vs LSU.  
- Auburn gave up 23 points vs LSU.  
- Florida gave up 42 points vs LSU.  
- MsState gave up 36 points vs LSU.  
- Texas gave up 45 points vs LSU.  
A1abana gave up 46 points vs LSU!!!
so....our D is better than big bad Bama!!
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Just looked at total def. yards allowed. We’re improving a bunch, to 100, allowing less than 450 per game.  If we matched yards given up last year, 393, we would be ranked 60.  

Are we just a dc away from decent, or a whole staff away from decent?  With the proper coaching are these athletes good enough to get us in the top 40.?  With a top 40 d, I think it’s pretty safe to say we have one or 0 losses.  One loss puts us where cdc claims he expects us to be, top 10.  

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

Just looked at total def. yards allowed. We’re improving a bunch, to 100, allowing less than 450 per game.  If we matched yards given up last year, 393, we would be ranked 60.  

Are we just a dc away from decent, or a whole staff away from decent?  With the proper coaching are these athletes good enough to get us in the top 40.?  With a top 40 d, I think it’s pretty safe to say we have one or 0 losses.  One loss puts us where cdc claims he expects us to be, top 10.  

 

 

 

fuck Orlando but we lost 8 starters off last year's shitty defense, anyone that thought we weren't going to suck on defense is an idiot 

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2 minutes ago, Jester said:

Should have stopped after 'fuck Orlando'.  Drop-off? Sure.  Trending towards one of the worst defenses in history of the program?  Fuck.  that.  noise.  Running zero-blitzes (from the fucking field corner) with 15 yard cushions doesn't work.  Much less with an inexperienced back field.  He's putting our players in spots to fail from the snap.

nope, anyone that didn't think we'd suck on defense is an idiot.

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2 minutes ago, hookem48 said:

nope, anyone that didn't think we'd suck on defense is an idiot.

Well, if you think a drop off from last year's 'shitty' defense = sucks.  Sure.  Agreed.  But the blame lies more with Orlando than the new starters.  There is no fucking reason our defense should be as bad as they are right now.

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9 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

If you didn’t expect the University of Texas to field one of the worst defenses in the country then you are an idiot, sir.

So your saying either our players need 4 years under Orlan_o to be good or are you saying next years defense will be outstanding since only need 3?

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1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’d love to see a new DC and new DB coach minimum. I actually like Naviar - he should call plays the rest of the season IMO (assuming he didn’t take over after halftime). 

Naviar is the last person who gets a pass: his secondary is the weak link on defense, his position is the weak link in the secondary.

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1 hour ago, Horn80 said:

Texas Total Defense ranks 109 out of 130.  Enough said.

This.   Was it reasonable to expect a top 30 defense this year after replacing a lot of starters?  Of course not.  But it's absolutely reasonable to expect something closer to middle of the pack, even with the injuries.  Offenses are converting 42% on 3rd down and WAY too many of those are 3rd and longs where we blitz DB's 15 yards from the QB.    Just fucking improve that stat with better scheme and defensive rankings, and this team, look a lot better.

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1 minute ago, Blackcat00 said:

This defense has momentum. They are going to fuck up Purdy this Saturday like they did last year. 

Purdy is better than last year.   They don't have Butler but their WR's have looked pretty decent in the games I've seen.  Will be an interesting match up for sure.   We'll see if they can build on the 2nd half performance.    There will be some empty possessions against the ISU D so defense is going to have to step up in order to have a chance at a W.

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next year we will be a lot better and all of our opponents will be worse.

And yet, thanks to Todd Orlando, very green offensive rosters at LSU and OU will torch the more experienced Texas D. Say nothing of Spencer Sanders, Brock Purdy, etc. with another year under their belts. And the annual head scratching loss.

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5 hours ago, Horn80 said:

Texas Total Defense ranks 109 out of 130.  Enough said.

for fucks sake, shit on Todd Orlando all you want...but using yards given up in 2019 is the worst. full stop.

it is a shitty mechanism to say how good or bad a defense is, just like it is a shitty mechanism to say how good or bad an offense is. it doesn't take into consideration who the team has played, how good those teams are or are not, garbage time (who cares if you give up a 90 yard drive when you are up by 40 in the 4th Q with your third string in?) 

do you think Texas A&M is suddenly a great defense because they rank #29 in total defense? for comparison, DFEI has Texas A&M (who played the #119 OFEI team in UTSA and the #127 OFEI team in Texas State + FCS Lamar) at #50 and Texas at #59. 

Texas is shitty in a lot of ways - one of the bottom ~30 teams in the country in First Down Rate (% of drives that result in a TD or first down), Available Yards (total yards given up / total yards available), explosive drive rate (% of drives that average at least 10 yards per play) and busted drive rate (% Of drives that earn 0 or negative yards) 

on the flip side, they get turnovers, have played a very tough offensive schedule (#17 overall), and are middle of the pack in drives that end in touchdowns. 

we don't use batting average and RBIs to calculate how good or bad a hitter is in baseball anymore, we have way better ways to measure their value. the same with defense and offense.

this isn't complicated. 

stop using shitty measures in 2019.

stop it michael jordan GIF

4 hours ago, Skipper said:

This.   Was it reasonable to expect a top 30 defense this year after replacing a lot of starters?  Of course not.  But it's absolutely reasonable to expect something closer to middle of the pack, even with the injuries.  

Defensive FEI has Texas at 59

ESPN's Defensive Efficiency has Texas at 65

S&P+ has Texas at #80

Edited by NoName
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4 hours ago, JBJ said:

Naviar is the last person who gets a pass: his secondary is the weak link on defense, his position is the weak link in the secondary.

literally 80% of the players on his opening season depth chart missed time this year

spacer.png

here are the list of safeties on the IT roster table:

  • *Brandon Jones
  • *Chris Brown
  • *Josh Thompson
  • Montrell Estell
  • *BJ Foster
  • *DeMarvion Overshown
  • *Caden Sterns
  • Chris Adimora
  • Tyler Owens

(i think Texas considers the NB part of the Safety group? not 100% sure)

so every upper classman outside of Estell has been hurt and missed time.

literally every position group, with the exception of DL, has shown themselves to be a weak link - CBs, Safeties, LBs.

 

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6 minutes ago, NoName said:

for fucks sake, shit on Todd Orlando all you want...but using yards given up in 2019 is the worst. full stop.

it is a shitty mechanism to say how good or bad a defense is, just like it is a shitty mechanism to say how good or bad an offense is. it doesn't take into consideration who the team has played, how good those teams are or are not, garbage time (who cares if you give up a 90 yard drive when you are up by 40 in the 4th Q with your third string in?) 

do you think Texas A&M is suddenly a great defense because they rank #29 in total defense? for comparison, DFEI has Texas A&M (who played the #119 OFEI team in UTSA and the #127 OFEI team in Texas State + FCS Lamar) at #50 and Texas at #59. 

Texas is shitty in a lot of ways - one of the bottom ~30 teams in the country in First Down Rate (% of drives that result in a TD or first down), Available Yards (total yards given up / total yards available), explosive drive rate (% of drives that average at least 10 yards per play) and busted drive rate (% Of drives that earn 0 or negative yards) 

on the flip side, they get turnovers, have played a very tough offensive schedule (#17 overall), and are middle of the pack in drives that end in touchdowns. 

we don't use batting average and RBIs to calculate how good or bad a hitter is in baseball anymore, we have way better ways to measure their value. the same with defense and offense.

this isn't complicated. 

stop using shitty measures in 2019.

stop it michael jordan GIF

 

Spot on. Total yards per game was an antiquated stat way back in 2011, when modern day spread/RPO offenses started to become mainstream. Don't get me wrong, this defense does deserve to get crucified, but at least use relevant metrics. Yards per play, points per game, missed tackles, and lack of sacks are what we should be looking at.

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3 hours ago, Skipper said:

Purdy is better than last year.   They don't have Butler but their WR's have looked pretty decent in the games I've seen.  Will be an interesting match up for sure.   We'll see if they can build on the 2nd half performance.    There will be some empty possessions against the ISU D so defense is going to have to step up in order to have a chance at a W.

They also don't have their RB that was the best in the conference last year. Their TE passing game worries me, because they have 2-3 good ones. I do believe that if Texas wins this game, they are going to Dallas in early December.

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6 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

 Don't get me wrong, this defense does deserve to get crucified, but at least use relevant metrics. Yards per play, points per game, missed tackles, and lack of sacks are what we should be looking at.

Is there a stat for 3rd and 5+ conversions given up when bringing telegraphed safety blitzes well off the line of scrimmage leaving everyone in single man coverage?  That's a stat I would like to see :)

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1 minute ago, HtownHorn said:

They also don't have their RB that was the best in the conference last year. Their TE passing game worries me, because they have 2-3 good ones. I do believe that if Texas wins this game, they are going to Dallas in early December.

ISU is the #30 S&P+ offense and #6 FEI offense

 

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8 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

Spot on. Total yards per game was an antiquated stat way back in 2011, when modern day spread/RPO offenses started to become mainstream. Don't get me wrong, this defense does deserve to get crucified, but at least use relevant metrics. Yards per play, points per game, missed tackles, and lack of sacks are what we should be looking at.

Lack of turnovers.

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5 hours ago, Jester said:

Should have stopped after 'fuck Orlando'.  Drop-off? Sure.  Trending towards one of the worst defenses in history of the program?  Fuck.  that.  noise.  Running zero-blitzes (from the fucking field corner) with 15 yard cushions doesn't work.  Much less with an inexperienced back field.  He's putting our players in spots to fail from the snap.

This.  If your secondary is damned good at man coverage, zero-blitz can lead to some game-changing plays.  But even then, it needs to be a wrinkle, not your base defense on passing downs.  And when you call it, your corners can't be 10 yards off the receivers.  And with our young and banged up secondary, it should be called almost never.

Orlando's unwillingness to change his mentality to fit the personnel shows that he's just not a very creative coach.

And the delayed blitzes, my god.  And the three man front.  Most of what we do is just stupid.

 

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8 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Lack of turnovers.

FEI has this metric:

Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

Texas is #37 overall in DTO

Texas is in a many way tie for the 8th most turnovers gained in the country (15), has the 5th most INT (many way tie) at 11 total and has only recovered 4 fumbles (tied for the 2nd least in CFB) - none of this is rate adjusted: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/460

Texas is 3rd in the B12 in TOs gained per play

other rankings from this:

Texas is 9th in the B12 in Yards per play, 8th in points per play, 8th in points per drive, and 8th in offensive success rate while not creating much in way of havoc.

The defense is *not* good, but they get turnovers.

edit: more B12 specific stats here: https://twitter.com/ksu_FAN/status/1193590932169474049

 

Edited by NoName
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9 hours ago, hookem48 said:

fuck Orlando but we lost 8 starters off last year's shitty defense, anyone that thought we weren't going to suck on defense is an idiot 

I just thought maybe the four and five star guys who were coming in might be talented and we might at least be as good.

So...I am clearly an idiot.

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22 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:
re: Interesting comparison of LSU’s opponentsPosted on 11/11/19 at 5:55 pm to WilliamTaylor21
 
quote:
- Utah State gave up 45 points vs LSU.  
- Auburn gave up 23 points vs LSU.  
- Florida gave up 42 points vs LSU.  
- MsState gave up 36 points vs LSU.  
- Texas gave up 45 points vs LSU.  
A1abana gave up 46 points vs LSU!!!
so....our D is better than big bad Bama!!

Well I bet Bama is glad they dont have to play Utah State this year. Would’ve been a shootout!

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I did a quick rewatch of parts of the KSU game. After watching live, I was pretty negative about our defense regardless of our second half performance because it was more KSU playing to our strengths than any improvement on defense.

The rewatch only made things worse. We still rolled out a myriad of deep blitzes that never got home even though they were unblocked. The off coverage to start the game was beyond idiotic.
 

Our stop at the end of the first half was only due to Thompson missing a throw and his receiver falling on another route. We were ready to give up yards by our CB positioning. We didn’t do anything to get the stop. This defense is so poorly coached, it’s insane.
On KSU’s second TD, Orlando calls a Nickel blitz with Foster lined up 5 yards deep and 3 yards outside the tackle. Foster wasn’t hopelessly far away, but he was also lined up so far from the spot receiver it was clear he wasn’t going to be covering himself. Even then, He wasn’t blocked but couldn’t get home in time. Jones was the safety responsible for picking up Foster’s man. We had sterns as a single deep safety. Rather than realize he has help in the middle and cover with outside leverage, he plays inside leverage for no apparent reason and gives up the corner route easily for a TD and Thompson could tell it would be open almost immediately. 
 

This has been the insanity of our defense this year and it’s really chicken or the egg, but either one really just points back to horrible coaching. If Jones plays with outside leverage, then Thompson’s first read (corner route) isn’t open and Foster has time to get home. we saw this over and over again against LSU. I remember a play where Orlando called a Nickel blitz that was unblocked and got home in under 2 seconds. Green was in man outside. He played with horrible technique and let his man get open immediately, so Burrow had a quick read. Then Green also missed the tackle and it was first down LSU.

Whether you want to say the true fault is the blitz design or the horrible coverage that doesn’t give time for even decent blitz calls to get home, it all goes back to terrible coaching. And now that it’s been beyond proven that our blitzes can’t get home and the thin coverage behind them can’t hold up,  a failure to mitigate either of these issues by simplifying calls further compounds all our problems. 
 

Every game for the rest of this year will be dependent on the opposing offense. If they exploit the weaknesses that have been clearly shown in our defense the last two years, we’ll give up a ton of yards and points. The ISU game will be interesting. Orlando’s handled them two years in a row, but Purdy is a way better passer currently than what they had the last two years. I expect Campbell to be smart enough to exploit our defensive weaknesses, but if he trots out the same offensive scheme as the last two years, we’ll have a really good shot at winning. 

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Yeah, seeing 4DL looks, a few times and occasional press coverage was definitely gruntling, but nothing screamed "changes are coming". 

An, you know, a W is a W and all that... but another last-second FG to beat a Kansan FB club? Better than a sharp-stick eye poke, just not very much. 

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I did a quick rewatch of parts of the KSU game. After watching live, I was pretty negative about our defense regardless of our second half performance because it was more KSU playing to our strengths than any improvement on defense.
The rewatch only made things worse. We still rolled out a myriad of deep blitzes that never got home even though they were unblocked. The off coverage to start the game was beyond idiotic.
 
Our stop at the end of the first half was only due to Thompson missing a throw and his receiver falling on another route. We were ready to give up yards by our CB positioning. We didn’t do anything to get the stop. This defense is so poorly coached, it’s insane.
On KSU’s second TD, Orlando calls a Nickel blitz with Foster lined up 5 yards deep and 3 yards outside the tackle. Foster wasn’t hopelessly far away, but he was also lined up so far from the spot receiver it was clear he wasn’t going to be covering himself. Even then, He wasn’t blocked but couldn’t get home in time. Jones was the safety responsible for picking up Foster’s man. We had sterns as a single deep safety. Rather than realize he has help in the middle and cover with outside leverage, he plays inside leverage for no apparent reason and gives up the corner route easily for a TD and Thompson could tell it would be open almost immediately. 
 
This has been the insanity of our defense this year and it’s really chicken or the egg, but either one really just points back to horrible coaching. If Jones plays with outside leverage, then Thompson’s first read (corner route) isn’t open and Foster has time to get home. we saw this over and over again against LSU. I remember a play where Orlando called a Nickel blitz that was unblocked and got home in under 2 seconds. Green was in man outside. He played with horrible technique and let his man get open immediately, so Burrow had a quick read. Then Green also missed the tackle and it was first down LSU.

Whether you want to say the true fault is the blitz design or the horrible coverage that doesn’t give time for even decent blitz calls to get home, it all goes back to terrible coaching. And now that it’s been beyond proven that our blitzes can’t get home and the thin coverage behind them can’t hold up,  a failure to mitigate either of these issues by simplifying calls further compounds all our problems. 
 
Every game for the rest of this year will be dependent on the opposing offense. If they exploit the weaknesses that have been clearly shown in our defense the last two years, we’ll give up a ton of yards and points. The ISU game will be interesting. Orlando’s handled them two years in a row, but Purdy is a way better passer currently than what they had the last two years. I expect Campbell to be smart enough to exploit our defensive weaknesses, but if he trots out the same offensive scheme as the last two years, we’ll have a really good shot at winning. 

Agreed - defense didn't show anything to indicate it's improved off the bye beyond being marginally better due to getting personnel back. Every fundamental issue we have seen all year is still there and little seems to have been done to address those.

If any of the remaining opponents play well, or even half decently on offense, they're going to score enough to win unless the Texas offense just goes off.

ISU has been relying more on their passing game than in the past couple years. Texas has been torched by lower caliber and less experienced QBs plenty of times. I expect more of the same. Texas's football season will be effectively over by 6pm on Saturday.

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14 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Agreed - defense didn't show anything to indicate it's improved off the bye beyond being marginally better due to getting personnel back. Every fundamental issue we have seen all year is still there and little seems to have been done to address those.

If any of the remaining opponents play well, or even half decently on offense, they're going to score enough to win unless the Texas offense just goes off.

ISU has been relying more on their passing game than in the past couple years. Texas has been torched by lower caliber and less experienced QBs plenty of times. I expect more of the same. Texas's football season will be effectively over by 6pm on Saturday.

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Yeah, that’s how I feel too. I was hoping to find some silver linings from the KSU game on rewatch, but it just reinforced how fundamentally flawed our defense is. If we were fully healthy, I think we could’ve beat TCU.  That touchdown in between the safeties where Montrell Estell made possibly the worst effort I’ve ever seen comes to mind. If Sterns is in, that’s probably a pick. But it would only be the difference between like 8-4 and 7-5. 

 

There’s 0 reason to believe Orlando will make any changes at this point and unless our offense can score close to 50 (very unlikely since we’re also somehow regressing on offense lately), then we’re likely going to lose.

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22 hours ago, NoName said:

FEI has this metric:

Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

Texas is #37 overall in DTO

Texas is in a many way tie for the 8th most turnovers gained in the country (15), has the 5th most INT (many way tie) at 11 total and has only recovered 4 fumbles (tied for the 2nd least in CFB) - none of this is rate adjusted: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/460

Texas is 3rd in the B12 in TOs gained per play

other rankings from this:

Texas is 9th in the B12 in Yards per play, 8th in points per play, 8th in points per drive, and 8th in offensive success rate while not creating much in way of havoc.

The defense is *not* good, but they get turnovers.

edit: more B12 specific stats here: https://twitter.com/ksu_FAN/status/1193590932169474049

 

I would like to see that at the end of the year for only B12 games. Then we get a better comparison. Still when the games were played against the opponent and the opponent key injuries will not come into play but it will be a better comparison of where everyone sits.

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