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2022 Rain Thread


South Austin

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East of I-35  and north of I-10 probably won't get a drop, but the models are trending westward. The earlier models had most of the rain in Oklahoma and Arkansas.  They have been gradually shifting south and west over the last few days.  We'll see, but most likely the Houston area will get 100 inches of rain and the Hill Country will get nothing...and like it.

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Edited by Hate
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Those precip maps look perfect to disappoint everyone along and west of 35 with yet another a last minute shift east or NE (more progressive).

That’s been the trend all spring…I think we’re turbofucked once the death ridge sets up shop this summer (last 2 weeks a preview) but hopefully not.
 

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From Sean Belafiore KWTX Waco- he agrees with the outlook for next week.

 

The weather pattern turns unsettled starting on Sunday depending on where the front stalls. If the front stalls south of our area, we’ll be expecting a mostly dry day with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. The storm system moving through next week starts to arrive late Sunday and will send waves of off-and-on showers and storms through our area through at least early Wednesday and potentially even longer. The rain will of course keep highs down into the upper 70s and low 80s but we could be dealing with just a bit too much rain all at once. As the periodic heavy rainfall moves through, we’re expecting widespread rainfall totals near 2″ with isolated higher totals 3″-4″+ certainly possible. There could also be a bullseye of 6″ of rain somewhere in Central Texas but it’s far too early for any specificity like that. Although most model data continues to ramp up next week’s rain chances and rainfall totals, I’ll urge a bit of caution. While multi-inch rain totals are trending upward, next week’s rain isn’t a slam dunk just yet.

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4 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Yeah. Very disappointing to see that Euro model. Anybody know how far in advance their models have become super reliable? Is that what we should realistically expect? Or is it still another day or two before their models really hit their stride?

If the GFS rain models are anything like their future hurricane models, then that graphic is a load of shit.

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8 hours ago, bolverk said:

Who normally starts our hurricane/tropical weather thread?

This article makes it sound like we could have a pretty active GoM.

https://theconversation.com/amp/bad-news-for-the-2022-hurricane-season-the-loop-current-a-fueler-of-monster-storms-is-looking-a-lot-like-it-did-in-2005-the-year-of-katrina-183197

Lol every year is the next 2005. Every fucking year.

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Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

Edited by Loop 1604
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47 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said:

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

I'll take 1-2" (TWSS), but the hill country really needs to be hit. 

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1 hour ago, Loop 1604 said:

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

It depends.  IF I'm not mistaken, wasn't it the GFS that absolutely nailed the Big Freeze in '21?  EURO seems to do better on precip and GFS does pretty damn well on sweeping lows.   

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31 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. 

I may thumb my nose at them and go for a mountain bike ride. Or maybe go wash the truck. 

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2 hours ago, South Austin said:

Good news for the Houston area. My son’s fifth grade class is taking their year-end trip to Camp Allen this Monday through Wednesday, so that area should get plenty of rain then. You’re welcome.

My kids' Camp Allen experiences also usually included rain.  They said everyone just went wild in the mud and made a huge mess.  Best part of the week.

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