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2022 Rain Thread


South Austin

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got damned i'm full of tangents today. came across this article going down the reddit black hole. 

tldr, hundreds of bodies found in high himalayan mountain lake were probably killed by giant hail storm. 

https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/skeleton-lake-of-roopkund-india

However, a 2004 expedition to the site seems to have finally revealed the mystery of what caused those people’s deaths. The answer was stranger than anyone had guessed.

As it turns out, all the bodies date to around 850 AD. DNA evidence indicates that there were two distinct groups of people, one a family or tribe of closely related individuals, and a second smaller, shorter group of locals, likely hired as porters and guides. Rings, spears, leather shoes, and bamboo staves were found, leading experts to believe that the group was comprised of pilgrims heading through the valley with the help of the locals.

All the bodies had died in a similar way, from blows to the head. However, the short deep cracks in the skulls appeared to be the result not of weapons, but rather of something rounded. The bodies also only had wounds on their heads, and shoulders as if the blows had all come from directly above. What had killed them all, porter and pilgrim alike?

Among Himalayan women there is an ancient and traditional folk song. The lyrics describe a goddess so enraged at outsiders who defiled her mountain sanctuary that she rained death upon them by flinging hailstones “hard as iron.” After much research and consideration, the 2004 expedition came to the same conclusion. All 200 people died from a sudden and severe hailstorm.

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3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Sun at 2:00 PM has nothing to do with the forecast showing the "good stuff" hitting between 5:00 - 7:00.  Weather folks been pretty consistent about it being a rush hour event.

A few hours of diurnal heating will enhance the instability in the atmosphere.   So yeah, sunny at 2:00 does have something to do with the stuff that will hit at 5:00.   

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Just now, Trey3216 said:

A few hours of diurnal heating will enhance the instability in the atmosphere.   So yeah, sunny at 2:00 does have something to do with the stuff that will hit at 5:00.   

Let me clarify... don't cheer the sun because it doesn't mean its going to stay sunny.  We're on the same page.

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Just now, Trey3216 said:

A few hours of diurnal heating will enhance the instability in the atmosphere.   So yeah, sunny at 2:00 does have something to do with the stuff that will hit at 5:00.   

so now matter how sunny it is, we're gonna get fucked anyway? 

new team motto?

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14 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Let me clarify... don't cheer the sun because it doesn't mean its going to stay sunny.  We're on the same page.

Yeah, I wasnt. cheering on the sun.   Glad we both just misread each other a bit.   
From dago to dago, I was worried about the sun warming the place up a bit before the fun stuff gets here and makes it even more fun.   

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Update:

I'll be back in when/if stuff gets nasty.  It's entirely true we might not get shit.  Or, it's entirely true we may get slammed.

One thing is for sure.. the line which will be severe really won't ramp up until it gets near us, say within 100 miles.  The line out west isn't running into the blob of moisture that is the risk area.

It's not uncommon that this situation is ripe to "blow up" on or near us out of nothing.  Some of our worst weather has been more like that than spotting a line way out west that comes through - usually these lines die down.  I don't like this scenario, and the best hope is that it forms east of us.

But nothing on the radar right now means much as to the next 3-4 hours.  I'd say within the next hour or two is when "it gets real" either shows up - or not - on the radar.  So I'll be back if that happens.  If not, meh. (But someone in the eastern half of Texas is going to get slammed today, definitely).

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Interesting tidbit while I'm here...

Little outflow boundary sweeping in, this is a rush of cooler air generated by thunderstorms behind it.  Lots of times these outflows can themselves be the line to ramp up, though I don't think it's gonna happen here.  Just kind of a cool pic FWIW.

image.png.f8f8ce8c38051fa85dc215854863f778.png

Back later (hope not, but we'll see).

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3 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said:

Down to 30%

Kinda good news, might mean energy is shifting to north/east.  But haven't seen anything official on it yet.

Got damn I hate this stuff... technology just isn't good enough yet to predict pinpoints on this.  Fingers crossed.

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3 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Kinda good news, might mean energy is shifting to north/east.  But haven't seen anything official on it yet.

Got damn I hate this stuff... technology just isn't good enough yet to predict pinpoints on this.  Fingers crossed.

I imagine it will eventually get there.  Look at how much more accurate they've gotten with hurricane cones versus just a few years ago.

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8 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

One more thing.. just FYI here is an approximation of the cold front (as of 2:55 p.m.), which in this case, is the place where the worst storms will form with this system, so you can track it on radar.  Bye (for awhile).

image.png.9aeb68d74db395ecafdd2aac21c71865.png

...20Z Update...
   Severe probabilities have been trimmed on the western edge of the
   risk area, based on the eastward progression of the Pacific cold
   front/effective dryline. Otherwise, no major changes have been made
   to the outlook. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
   increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the early
   evening, from northwest into central TX, with all severe hazards
   possible. 

 

No major changes in this update from what I can tell.

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I've only been following weather relatively close since the June 2019 storm in Dallas rocked my world and I wasn't prepared for it (although nobody really called that one with much notice, at least at the time it came through).  But seems like an odd pattern here.  Mild to Moderate storms flowing north to south over DFW with the line then coming from the east.  We've already had a couple of really solid chunks of rain.   I feel like these days we're on severe watch are typically hot and humid all day just waiting to pop.

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3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've only been following weather relatively close since the June 2019 storm in Dallas rocked my world and I wasn't prepared for it (although nobody really called that one with much notice, at least at the time it came through).  But seems like an odd pattern here.  Mild to Moderate storms flowing north to south over DFW with the line then coming from the east.  We've already had a couple of really solid chunks of rain.   I feel like these days we're on severe watch are typically hot and humid all day just waiting to pop.

Storm explosions happen for 3 reasons…

-extreme temperature disparity

-extreme wind shear/pressure gradients colliding

-extreme moisture gradients colliding.
 

this event has points 2&3 happening.  
 

very volatile wind gradients and incredible dew point disparity.    The dew point in Midland is 20.   It’s in the high 60’s low 70’s in Central TX right now.    

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4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've only been following weather relatively close since the June 2019 storm in Dallas rocked my world and I wasn't prepared for it (although nobody really called that one with much notice, at least at the time it came through).  But seems like an odd pattern here.  Mild to Moderate storms flowing north to south over DFW with the line then coming from the east.  We've already had a couple of really solid chunks of rain.   I feel like these days we're on severe watch are typically hot and humid all day just waiting to pop.

I have been a weather watcher for quite a while.  My Dad took this photo in 1957.  https://www.1957dallastornado.net/  He was involved in press relations and sent it to a contact at DMN and was never credited with the photo.

My cousin's house got schwacked and my aunt and grandmother lived through the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado.

But that 2019 came as close as I have ever been (no damage), and kind of scared the shit out of me.

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Just now, TwiceHorn said:

I have been a weather watcher for quite a while.  My Dad took this photo in 1957.  https://www.1957dallastornado.net/  He was involved in press relations and sent it to a contact at DMN and was never credited with the photo.

My cousin's house got schwacked and my aunt and grandmother lived through the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado.

But that 2019 came as close as I have ever been (no damage), and kind of scared the shit out of me.

Are you referencing the October tornado or the June storm?  The 2019 tornado was damn close to us as well.  It veered about 1-2 miles north after crossing 75.  But we were pretty much ground zero of the microburst associated with the June storm and my house flooded (in addition to all the hail/wind damage).  If you drove the neighborhood you would have assumed a tornado hit with the wind damage. It was insane.  Corby Davidson from the Ticket lives close and tweeted some good footage of the flooding.  It was just fucking nuts.  I've done a lot drainage work since but no idea if it could stand up to that shit show.  Hope to never find out.

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2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Are you referencing the October tornado or the June storm?  The 2019 tornado was damn close to us as well.  It veered about 1-2 miles north after crossing 75.  But we were pretty much ground zero of the microburst associated with the June storm and my house flooded (in addition to all the hail/wind damage).  If you drove the neighborhood you would have assumed a tornado hit with the wind damage. It was insane.  Corby Davidson from the Ticket lives close and tweeted some good footage of the flooding.  It was just fucking nuts.  I've done a lot drainage work since but no idea if it could stand up to that shit show.  Hope to never find out.

The tornado, although you have my sympathy on the flooding and wind.  

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