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AFC: Bills v Chiefs


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1 hour ago, Had Enough said:


You need to dig deeper. And not totally sure why you’d exclude regular season. 52% is not necessarily a decided advantage. Even the playoff numbers say 25% (maybe 36%) of the time, it goes at least 3 possessions.

Even in college the coin flip gives a decided advantage. So if you give equal possessions, it is still flawed. The team with the ball second basically gets an extra down if they choose to take it. If the first team clanks a FG, team 2 can go conservative. Or if they score a TD, they have better info in that decision on whether to go for 2. How much does a chance of a TD go up when you only have to travel 25 or 35 yards versus 75? It should drop quite a bit then the advantage switches once a stop is made.

Play a full quarter? The receiving team still has an advantage. It’s very possible they get one more possession or that team 2’s last possession is decidedly hurried.

There’s no perfect system for this. There is merit to ending it as quickly as possible for the players health.

The more I've thought about the idea I posted above -- it was cribbed from some others in this discussion -- the more I think it would work. OT is 15 minutes, 10, whatever you please. Each team is guaranteed a possession. If the game is still tied at that point, it then becomes sudden death. Rather than a coin toss, give the home team or the team who was "better" in the game the choice of taking the ball to start OT or get it second. If you take it to start the OT, you will have the first crack at sudden death if neither team scores or both score the same number of points on their first possession. Taking the ball second gives you the chance to see what you need to do when you get the ball.

Or just set the OT clock to 10 minutes and play a fifth "quarter." Leader at end of that wins the game.

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12 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

NFL OT rules will not change any more than they did with Last tweak.   Deal with it.  The league has a vested interest in keeping games right at the three hour mark.  Almost all NFL games are on national non-sports centered networks that lead in to prime time TV.   NFL has to keep the assembly line moving from the 1 pm games into the 4pm games and then into prime time TV.   Some form of near-sudden death OT is the only way to keep OT games closer to that three hour threshold.   

They can adopt different OT rules for the playoffs, though (I mean they already have different OT rules for the playoffs). The golf majors are on network. If they go into a playoff they go into a playoff. Plenty of college football and college basketball games are on network. They can go into triple or quadruple overtime. Sporting events go over all the time. 

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The more I've thought about the idea I posted above -- it was cribbed from some others in this discussion -- the more I think it would work. OT is 15 minutes, 10, whatever you please. Each team is guaranteed a possession. If the game is still tied at that point, it then becomes sudden death. Rather than a coin toss, give the home team or the team who was "better" in the game the choice of taking the ball to start OT or get it second. If you take it to start the OT, you will have the first crack at sudden death if neither team scores or both score the same number of points on their first possession. Taking the ball second gives you the chance to see what you need to do when you get the ball.
Or just set the OT clock to 10 minutes and play a fifth "quarter." Leader at end of that wins the game.

They reduced OT from 15 to 10 I believe so I suspect that’s where they’d go. I can see changes or at a minimum a review of the process.

The sudden death phrase is interesting because that is what overtime was or so I thought.

But it does need to be understood that it will never be fair. You might be able to make it more fair. And the playoff rules need to mimic regular season rules with the exception of play until there’s a winner.
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There are two defenders so deep they're not even on the screen, they might as well be on the sideline.

Only one db is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and all five retreat at the snap, one of them disappearing from the screen to join the other two who don't want to be involved in the play, I guess.

One of the fastest humans on the planet catches the pass with no one anywhere near him.

 

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31 minutes ago, Augustus said:

I'm still just amazed at this.  I don't care who the DC is, anybody responsible for this deserves to be fired and run out of the sport.

 

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yeah, with only 13 seconds left AND 3 TOs, the D should not give a shit about keeping the WRs from the sidelines and just line up over them like normal and then start backing up prior to the snap.  Wasting 2 players guarding the sidelines was stupid in that situation.  Maybe if KC had no TO, I could see it, but with 3, there was no point.  The clock is stopping after every play so if they want to throw a 10 yard out to the sidelines to save a TO it's still 4 seconds off the clock and only 10 yards.  earlier in the game KC had run a similar formation and used Hill as decoy as he stopped underneath and they hit the receiver at the next level as the defenders reacted to Hill so maybe they were more scared of the deep ball, but Hill with the ball in space is about the scariest thing a Defense can encounter.

Hell of a game to watch.  was kinda rooting for the Bills to move on.

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4 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

yeah, with only 13 seconds left AND 3 TOs, the D should not give a shit about keeping the WRs from the sidelines and just line up over them like normal and then start backing up prior to the snap.  Wasting 2 players guarding the sidelines was stupid in that situation.  Maybe if KC had no TO, I could see it, but with 3, there was no point.  The clock is stopping after every play so if they want to throw a 10 yard out to the sidelines to save a TO it's still 4 seconds off the clock and only 10 yards.  earlier in the game KC had run a similar formation and used Hill as decoy as he stopped underneath and they hit the receiver at the next level as the defenders reacted to Hill so maybe they were more scared of the deep ball, but Hill with the ball in space is about the scariest thing a Defense can encounter.

Hell of a game to watch.  was kinda rooting for the Bills to move on.

Agreed with both you and @Augustus but another question is why are there 4 guys at the line of scrimmage? In this situation I think you rush two guys max on that play. 4 deep DBs, 5 playing short to medium, don't let anyone behind you if you're in the back 4. And by back 4 playing deep I don't mean like their back 2 who were worthless. I mean lined up at 15 yards and moving back at the snap. Like y'all said, with all their timeouts the sideline isn't an issue, let them catch one for 10 yards and a first down. 

And why rush more than 2? If Mahomes wants to stand around in the pocket looking for something to break open, that's a good thing for the Bills.

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