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2020 Democratic Nominee

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15 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Because I’m a data junkie

Fair enough. And I'm glad you post them, because it's good info. It's just interesting that you post all these polls, but seem so quick to dismiss information that you don't like as "polls are garbage". As someone who does analytics and surveys for a living, there's a difference between "polls are useless!" and "there is a lot of room for movement and change in these polls between now and the primaries". 

The ones I'm most interested right now are the three early primary states. Those are the ones that have value, as those three are going to change the numbers for all of the other states.

Edited by BradInATX

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16 hours ago, Dropout said:

The fuck it is. Ok Boomer Bloomberg for saying that shit about marijuana. Or Biden telling voters to vote for Trump. You don’t ok boomer the guy on the side of the younger generation. It’s way more accurate to ok boomer gen x itt. 

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27 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Fair enough. And I'm glad you post them, because it's good info. It's just interesting that you post all these polls, but seem so quick to dismiss information that you don't like as "polls are garbage". As someone who does analytics and surveys for a living, there's a difference between "polls are useless!" and "there is a lot of room for movement and change in these polls between now and the primaries". 

The ones I'm most interested right now are the three early primary states. Those are the ones that have value, as those three are going to change the numbers for all of the other states.

When I say the polls are equally worthless what I mean is they are in no way predictive of anything because we’re still months away from anyone voting.    Whatever the polls said two months ago are as worthless as the polls today.  They don’t determine anything as far as outcomes.  

The only thing polls tell you is what the political weather is like today and which way the winds are blowing.  Sometimes the winds blow in your favor and sometimes they don’t.  

The polls within one week before an election are the only ones that should have any predictive value. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

I've seen way too many Bloomberg ads here in Texas lately. 

Is this a national ad buy?

It's a feature, not a bug.

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If the non-voters and young show up and Bernie wins either Iowa or NH and the media has to start talking about him the primary could get ugly really fast for everyone else.

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43 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

It's a feature, not a bug.

wnsqbxhs3m141.jpg

 

Fake news. I was told the media was propping up Biden and dissing Warren.

PS - poor Bernie.

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4 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

That Biden ad is a great primary ad because it appeals to #RESIST people who might be with Warren or Pete, but it's a losing play in the general. Yes, it hurts Trump's feelings and that's fun, and if the ad was about how much of a crybaby Trump is (and I mean explicitly calling him a "crybaby" or some other insult so the point would actually stick) I would feel differently about it.

But it's a "WE NEED TO BE RESPECTED IN THE WORLD!" ad.

"They're laughing at us" didn't help Kerry in '04.
"Can you imagine how much they'll laugh at us" didn't help Clinton in '16. (It was basically her entire campaign.)
In '08, McCain was the established elder statesman and lost.

Who cares what Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, or Boris Johnson think?

If we had a candidate that all 3 of those ghouls loved, I would dislike that candidate more.

I WANT a president that Teresa "Austerity" May pulls mean-girl stuff on like skipping a handshake.
I WANT a president that Justin "Blackface & Oil Pipelines" Trudeau thinks is uncool and uncouth.
I WANT a president that Emmanuel "Let Them Eat Cake" Macron finds beneath his standards.

If Biden's campaign thinks the America's working people (ostensibly Biden's base) yearn for a day when Europe's leaders love them, Biden's campaign has no idea what kind of wheat thresher it's walking into.

So use those clips, but say, "And he cried about it like a weak baby, which is what he is. Weak. World leaders mock him and all he does is whine on the Internet, like a 14-year-old girl. Joe would demand a public apology or else Trudeau is getting punched in the mouth."

The answer is not, "These international finance puppets don't like Trump, but they'll like Joe!"

while i agree with much of what you said, i think this was a genius move from biden.

it'll get under trump's skin, which will force more erratic behavior.  that's good for everyone.  it's also good for him, because it's very shareable, fwdable - which is good for the olds.  it's also the type of ad that gets played on cable news, so it's free media for a guy who might have cash flow issues.

biden has been ignoring the field and going hard after trump the entire time.  so far, it's working.

i don't think other instances of "they're laughing at us" are relevant at all.  trump changed the entire game.

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Pete talked about how ELITIST it is to tell people they should go to college to succeed. So surely Pete wants to fund trade schools instead, right?

No, he doesn't.

Bernie does, though, because Bernie doesn't fucking suck.

I genuinely think a huge problem here is that Pete's campaign lead is a NY climber psychopath and his national policy director is from Goldman Sachs. These are neoliberal brains running this guy's campaign and for all his airs and self-assurance about his own intelligence, the reality is that he's a baby who has spent more time building his meaningless credentials than doing anything that requires sophistication at a large scale. He runs a city with a slightly lower population than League City.

The Pete Buttigieg that existed last year was speaking out against neoliberal austerity and spoke favorably of universality in programming and of single-payer specifically. Now he talks like he was shat out of the colons of DC think tanks.

The most charitable view I have is that his good will has been compromised by vampires.

It's OK, though, grandma and grandpa will keep him in check.

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Lis Smith had a pretty Trumpy afternoon on Twitter after Warren calling him out.

This thread about her is pretty illustrative of who she is.




And then there’s all the gross Spitzer stuff. The fact that she’s the Number One Petesplainer makes me seriously doubt Pete’s judgment.

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If Mayor Pete makes his McKinsey clients public (not sure if this is even feasible in view of the NDA he signed), then Warren absolutely should make her tax returns publicly available.  Why hasn't she done so already?  Hiding something?

 

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Warren is hiding something in her dental records, I can feel it. 

I don’t think I could produce my tax returns from 20 years ago even if I tried. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Warren is hiding something in her dental records, I can feel it. 

I don’t think I could produce my tax returns from 20 years ago even if I tried. 

Do you think Liz uses TurboTax to do her taxes?

Edited by Fozzz

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Biden's "Fuck You. Vote for someone else then" campaign is some of the funniest shit i've ever seen in a dem primary.  Can't help but love the guy.

 

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10 hours ago, Js1 said:

I’m pretty sure Hank would do it for 1/10th the cost. 

I am not at liberty to discuss what I may do or not do for the Mayor Pete campaign as I have signed an NDA and as we all know loyalty to NDAs is the bedrock upon which our entire society is built. 

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Stormy Daniels broke her NDA to speak up about Trump.

Do you guys really want a president who is more unethical than Stormy Daniels?

Didn't think so.

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I don’t think I could produce my tax returns from 20 years ago even if I tried. 

You can do it in 5 minutes on the IRS' website.

Every candidate should release every year of their working life. 

Edited by BradInATX

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13 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Pete talked about how ELITIST it is to tell people they should go to college to succeed. So surely Pete wants to fund trade schools instead, right?

No, he doesn't.

Bernie does, though, because Bernie doesn't fucking suck.

 

 

Does Bernie say where the money is going to come from, being that we're already running trillion dollar deficits?

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1 minute ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Does Bernie say where the money is going to come from, being that we're already running trillion dollar deficits?

So glad you asked! Yes, he does!

The Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) could, in concert with other revenue-raising proposals, raise trillions in revenue to help fund universal college and health insurance, both things we need to have a prosperous and healthy nation for ourselves, our kids, and the generations to come! Things you and I both want as hopeful, neighbor-loving Americans.

So be assured, friend, Bernie wants to spend but he also wants to make sure we are paying for it as a nation where everyone, from the poorest of the poor to the richest of the rich, feels unified in their shared responsibility for their fellow man.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQedappX1OrX-xXCiqAShg

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Mayor Pete was two full years ahead of our good governor Abbott in leveraging public resources to sanitize dangerous homeless encampments.  That's what I call proactive leadership.

 

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2 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

 

Does Bernie say where the money is going to come from, being that we're already running trillion dollar deficits?

Prof. Stephanie Kelton (a Sanders Economic advisor) explains the "debt" and MMT well. It does require you to question whether Federal deficits and debt and inherently "bad" - but anyone with an open mind is capable of following: 

Quote

 

Malter: How much is too much? The CBO estimates that if things remain unchanged, the debt will be 152 percent of GDP in 2048. That will be the highest in the nation’s history. Is that too much?

Kelton: Let’s remember what the national debt is. The national debt is nothing more than a historical record of all of the dollars that the government spent into the economy and didn’t tax back that are currently being held in the form of safe U.S. Treasurys. That’s what the national debt is. So the question about whether the debt is too big or too small (or whether it might get too big at some point in the future) is really a question about whether that’s too many safe assets for people to hold 10, 20, 50 years from now.

If you think about what happened after World War II, when the U.S. national debt went in excess of 100 percent, close to 125 percent of GDP. If we were talking about it the way we talk about it today as burdening future generations as posing a grave national security risk, we would have to scratch our heads and say, wait a minute. Do we think that our grandparents burdened the next generation with all of those bonds that were sold during World War II to win the war, build the strongest middle class, produce the longest period of peacetime prosperity, the golden age of capitalism, all of that followed in the wake of fighting World War II, increasing deficits, massively increasing the size of the national debt. And of course the next generation inherits those bonds. They don’t become burdens to the next generation. They become their assets.

So it’s impossible really to put a number, nobody can. How much debt is too much debt? If you look at Japan today you see a country where the debt-to-GDP ratio is something like 240 percent. Well above, orders of magnitude above, where the U.S. is today or even where the U.S. is forecast to be in the future. And so, the question is how is Japan able to sustain a debt of that size? Wouldn’t it have an inflation problem? Wouldn’t it lead to rising interest rates? Wouldn’t this be destructive in some way? And the answer to all of those questions, as Japan has demonstrated now for years is simply: No. Japan’s debt is close to 240 percent of GDP — almost a quadrillion, that’s a very big number, yen. Long-term interest rates are very close to zero, there’s no inflation problem. And so despite the size of the debt there are no negative consequences as a result and I think Japan teaches us a really important lesson.

Really, the only potential risk with the national debt increasing over time is inflation and to the extent that you don’t believe the U.S. has a long-term inflation problem you shouldn’t believe that the U.S. is facing a long-term debt problem.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/bernie-sanders-economic-advisor-stephanie-kelton-on-mmt-and-2020-race.html

Edited by washparkhorn

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We're gonna provide head protection to EVERY goomba, regardless of their ability to pay. And to fund it we're going to make sure that Mario returns the coins he is always stealing all across the Mushroom Kingdom.

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I saw a tyt video that cited a California poll where Bernie was at 24% and Warren was at 22% and Biden and Pete were down around 13 and 12% and below the threshold to receive delegates.

It occurred to me that if the right wing Democrats don't get any California delegates except super delegates, it will put the progressive candidates in a great position.

 

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48 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I saw a tyt video that cited a California poll where Bernie was at 24% and Warren was at 22% and Biden and Pete were down around 13 and 12% and below the threshold to receive delegates.

It occurred to me that if the right wing Democrats don't get any California delegates except super delegates, it will put the progressive candidates in a great position.

 

TYT cherry picked because there’s been a half dozen California polls. In one, Biden is at 13 and in another, he’s at 30. Picking One primary poll to advance a narrative is bad faith. 

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mpu


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