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1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I put absolutely no stock into it because neither of those assclowns is getting elected. And if they do, they cannot possibly ban frac’ing. And if they do, TPH cannot possibly quantify the impact. I just passed along, because I thought it was interesting they actually tried to do just that. 

And that's fair.  It was no knock on you.

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Small U.S. oil and gas companies get cold shoulder from large banks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The largest banking lenders to the U.S. oil and gas sector are becoming more cautious, marking down their expectations for oil and gas prices that underpin loans in a move expected to put further financial stress on struggling producers, industry and banking sources said.

Major banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N), and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) have, as part of regular biannual reviews, cut their estimated values for oil-and-gas companies’ reserves, which serve as the basis for those companies to receive reserve-based loans (RBLs), according to more than a dozen sources familiar with the activity.

While the size of the RBL market is unclear, it is estimated that a few hundred companies take such loans, with the cumulative size in the billions of dollars.

Those lenders have marked down the perceived value for both oil and natural gas for the coming five years, with the changes kicking in as early as this month.

Expected natural gas prices have been cut by around $0.50 per million British thermal units, about 20% below levels set in the spring. Industry sources are forecasting some firms face a 15% to 30% reduction in loan size as a result. Oil prices are expected to be about $1 to $2 lower than spring estimates.

“Some banks believe they have too much energy exposure and want to reduce some of this risk,” said Ian Rainbolt, vice president of finance at Warwick Energy, a private equity firm with upstream investments in Oklahoma and Texas.

That is a threat to smaller companies, which are already struggling to find other methods of financing - such as issuing stock or bonds - as investors grow restless with years of poor returns in the shale sector even as the United States has risen to become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Investors are bracing for weak returns for the third quarter from shale producers due to lower oil and gas prices.

Reduced funding could slow growth in U.S. oil and gas production, and also threaten more bankruptcies in the sector. Bankruptcy filings among U.S. oil and gas producers are at levels not seen since 2016, when U.S. crude slumped to $26 per barrel, according to law firm Haynes and Boone.

Companies heavily focused on natural gas drilling may be the most threatened. Banks are forecasting natural gas prices between $2 and $2.35 per million British thermal units for the next 12 months, and up to $2.50 at the end of the five-year term, all lower than in the spring.

“I expect the biggest issues to be with over-leveraged natural gas producers, especially those without firm transportation in geographically-disadvantaged areas,” said Brock Hudson, managing director at investment bank Carl Marks Advisors, who referenced companies in Appalachia, the Rockies and parts of Oklahoma.

Smaller RBLs can have huge consequences: Alta Mesa Resources, an Oklahoma-focused producer headed by former Anadarko Petroleum chairman Jim Hackett, filed for bankruptcy a month after its borrowing base was slashed by almost half in mid-August.

A number of banks, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N), declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.

REDUCED AVAILABILITY

Eight sources indicated larger banks have set their price decks, the industry term for the value they will ascribe to hydrocarbons behind the RBLs, with oil between $46 and $51 per barrel for the next five years.

There are fewer financing options available to help bridge the gap from lower RBLs. Just one U.S. producer, Contango Oil & Gas (MCF.A), has issued any new equity in 2019, while there has only been one high-yield bond offering by a shale producer since March, according to Refinitiv data.

Since 2018, the S&P 500 Energy Sector .SPNY is the worst performing sector in the Standard & Poor’s 500, falling 18% against a 12.8% increase for the broader index, and many publicly-traded shale companies have done even worse.

Those facing lower loan guarantees also can not rely on selling unwanted assets to raise cash as mergers and acquisitions activity is at its lowest level in a decade. Profiting from further production is also difficult, as the number of active oil and gas rigs is at its lowest level since April 2017, according to Baker Hughes.

Scott Richardson, head of U.S. energy investment banking at RBC Capital Markets, said any uptick in bankruptcies would likely come from the SCOOP/STACK area of Oklahoma and the gas-heavy southern portion of Texas’ Midland Basin.

Loan covenants are also being tightened, according to a Dallas Federal Reserve Bank energy survey published Sept. 25. The survey said some participants noted banks had lowered the maximum debt level permissible to 2.5 to 3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), from 3.5 to 4.0 times.

Some regional lenders have kept prices for oil and gas in fall’s redetermination higher than the larger institutions, according to three of the sources.

Warwick’s Rainbolt, who has oversight over four RBLs, said it was switching to regional banks, which offered better price decks. One bank priced gas starting at $2.37, rising to above $3 in the final year, with crude at $52 rising to near-$60 a barrel.

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1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:



Small U.S. oil and gas companies get cold shoulder from large banks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The largest banking lenders to the U.S. oil and gas sector are becoming more cautious, marking down their expectations for oil and gas prices that underpin loans in a move expected to put further financial stress on struggling producers, industry and banking sources said.

Major banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N), and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) have, as part of regular biannual reviews, cut their estimated values for oil-and-gas companies’ reserves, which serve as the basis for those companies to receive reserve-based loans (RBLs), according to more than a dozen sources familiar with the activity.

While the size of the RBL market is unclear, it is estimated that a few hundred companies take such loans, with the cumulative size in the billions of dollars.

Those lenders have marked down the perceived value for both oil and natural gas for the coming five years, with the changes kicking in as early as this month.

Expected natural gas prices have been cut by around $0.50 per million British thermal units, about 20% below levels set in the spring. Industry sources are forecasting some firms face a 15% to 30% reduction in loan size as a result. Oil prices are expected to be about $1 to $2 lower than spring estimates.

“Some banks believe they have too much energy exposure and want to reduce some of this risk,” said Ian Rainbolt, vice president of finance at Warwick Energy, a private equity firm with upstream investments in Oklahoma and Texas.

That is a threat to smaller companies, which are already struggling to find other methods of financing - such as issuing stock or bonds - as investors grow restless with years of poor returns in the shale sector even as the United States has risen to become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Investors are bracing for weak returns for the third quarter from shale producers due to lower oil and gas prices.

Reduced funding could slow growth in U.S. oil and gas production, and also threaten more bankruptcies in the sector. Bankruptcy filings among U.S. oil and gas producers are at levels not seen since 2016, when U.S. crude slumped to $26 per barrel, according to law firm Haynes and Boone.

Companies heavily focused on natural gas drilling may be the most threatened. Banks are forecasting natural gas prices between $2 and $2.35 per million British thermal units for the next 12 months, and up to $2.50 at the end of the five-year term, all lower than in the spring.

“I expect the biggest issues to be with over-leveraged natural gas producers, especially those without firm transportation in geographically-disadvantaged areas,” said Brock Hudson, managing director at investment bank Carl Marks Advisors, who referenced companies in Appalachia, the Rockies and parts of Oklahoma.

Smaller RBLs can have huge consequences: Alta Mesa Resources, an Oklahoma-focused producer headed by former Anadarko Petroleum chairman Jim Hackett, filed for bankruptcy a month after its borrowing base was slashed by almost half in mid-August.

A number of banks, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N), declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.

REDUCED AVAILABILITY

Eight sources indicated larger banks have set their price decks, the industry term for the value they will ascribe to hydrocarbons behind the RBLs, with oil between $46 and $51 per barrel for the next five years.

There are fewer financing options available to help bridge the gap from lower RBLs. Just one U.S. producer, Contango Oil & Gas (MCF.A), has issued any new equity in 2019, while there has only been one high-yield bond offering by a shale producer since March, according to Refinitiv data.

Since 2018, the S&P 500 Energy Sector .SPNY is the worst performing sector in the Standard & Poor’s 500, falling 18% against a 12.8% increase for the broader index, and many publicly-traded shale companies have done even worse.

Those facing lower loan guarantees also can not rely on selling unwanted assets to raise cash as mergers and acquisitions activity is at its lowest level in a decade. Profiting from further production is also difficult, as the number of active oil and gas rigs is at its lowest level since April 2017, according to Baker Hughes.

Scott Richardson, head of U.S. energy investment banking at RBC Capital Markets, said any uptick in bankruptcies would likely come from the SCOOP/STACK area of Oklahoma and the gas-heavy southern portion of Texas’ Midland Basin.

Loan covenants are also being tightened, according to a Dallas Federal Reserve Bank energy survey published Sept. 25. The survey said some participants noted banks had lowered the maximum debt level permissible to 2.5 to 3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), from 3.5 to 4.0 times.

Some regional lenders have kept prices for oil and gas in fall’s redetermination higher than the larger institutions, according to three of the sources.

Warwick’s Rainbolt, who has oversight over four RBLs, said it was switching to regional banks, which offered better price decks. One bank priced gas starting at $2.37, rising to above $3 in the final year, with crude at $52 rising to near-$60 a barrel.

This is pretty much what's happening at my company. Borrowing base was slashed about 11% from the spring re-determination which basically left us with little liquidity. It's going to be tight for awhile. 

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On 10/29/2019 at 9:17 AM, Rusty Shackelford said:



Small U.S. oil and gas companies get cold shoulder from large banks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The largest banking lenders to the U.S. oil and gas sector are becoming more cautious, marking down their expectations for oil and gas prices that underpin loans in a move expected to put further financial stress on struggling producers, industry and banking sources said.

Major banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N), and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) have, as part of regular biannual reviews, cut their estimated values for oil-and-gas companies’ reserves, which serve as the basis for those companies to receive reserve-based loans (RBLs), according to more than a dozen sources familiar with the activity.

While the size of the RBL market is unclear, it is estimated that a few hundred companies take such loans, with the cumulative size in the billions of dollars.

Those lenders have marked down the perceived value for both oil and natural gas for the coming five years, with the changes kicking in as early as this month.

Expected natural gas prices have been cut by around $0.50 per million British thermal units, about 20% below levels set in the spring. Industry sources are forecasting some firms face a 15% to 30% reduction in loan size as a result. Oil prices are expected to be about $1 to $2 lower than spring estimates.

“Some banks believe they have too much energy exposure and want to reduce some of this risk,” said Ian Rainbolt, vice president of finance at Warwick Energy, a private equity firm with upstream investments in Oklahoma and Texas.

That is a threat to smaller companies, which are already struggling to find other methods of financing - such as issuing stock or bonds - as investors grow restless with years of poor returns in the shale sector even as the United States has risen to become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Investors are bracing for weak returns for the third quarter from shale producers due to lower oil and gas prices.

Reduced funding could slow growth in U.S. oil and gas production, and also threaten more bankruptcies in the sector. Bankruptcy filings among U.S. oil and gas producers are at levels not seen since 2016, when U.S. crude slumped to $26 per barrel, according to law firm Haynes and Boone.

Companies heavily focused on natural gas drilling may be the most threatened. Banks are forecasting natural gas prices between $2 and $2.35 per million British thermal units for the next 12 months, and up to $2.50 at the end of the five-year term, all lower than in the spring.

“I expect the biggest issues to be with over-leveraged natural gas producers, especially those without firm transportation in geographically-disadvantaged areas,” said Brock Hudson, managing director at investment bank Carl Marks Advisors, who referenced companies in Appalachia, the Rockies and parts of Oklahoma.

Smaller RBLs can have huge consequences: Alta Mesa Resources, an Oklahoma-focused producer headed by former Anadarko Petroleum chairman Jim Hackett, filed for bankruptcy a month after its borrowing base was slashed by almost half in mid-August.

A number of banks, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N), declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.

REDUCED AVAILABILITY

Eight sources indicated larger banks have set their price decks, the industry term for the value they will ascribe to hydrocarbons behind the RBLs, with oil between $46 and $51 per barrel for the next five years.

There are fewer financing options available to help bridge the gap from lower RBLs. Just one U.S. producer, Contango Oil & Gas (MCF.A), has issued any new equity in 2019, while there has only been one high-yield bond offering by a shale producer since March, according to Refinitiv data.

Since 2018, the S&P 500 Energy Sector .SPNY is the worst performing sector in the Standard & Poor’s 500, falling 18% against a 12.8% increase for the broader index, and many publicly-traded shale companies have done even worse.

Those facing lower loan guarantees also can not rely on selling unwanted assets to raise cash as mergers and acquisitions activity is at its lowest level in a decade. Profiting from further production is also difficult, as the number of active oil and gas rigs is at its lowest level since April 2017, according to Baker Hughes.

Scott Richardson, head of U.S. energy investment banking at RBC Capital Markets, said any uptick in bankruptcies would likely come from the SCOOP/STACK area of Oklahoma and the gas-heavy southern portion of Texas’ Midland Basin.

Loan covenants are also being tightened, according to a Dallas Federal Reserve Bank energy survey published Sept. 25. The survey said some participants noted banks had lowered the maximum debt level permissible to 2.5 to 3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), from 3.5 to 4.0 times.

Some regional lenders have kept prices for oil and gas in fall’s redetermination higher than the larger institutions, according to three of the sources.

Warwick’s Rainbolt, who has oversight over four RBLs, said it was switching to regional banks, which offered better price decks. One bank priced gas starting at $2.37, rising to above $3 in the final year, with crude at $52 rising to near-$60 a barrel.

Don’t look now, but the short side of the natty trade is about to take their annual bloodbath, and there are a few factors starting to come together at once that could make it an historic, Carrie-esque bloodbath.  

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When credit starts to get quiet for small-to-mid-sized producers...sometimes. Not always, not endorsing it...but sometimes...you see the VPP model start to rear its head.  

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Don’t look now, but the short side of the natty trade is about to take their annual bloodbath, and there are a few factors starting to come together at once that could make it an historic, Carrie-esque bloodbath.  


.10 gap up on the open this evening, it’s a start... production has to start falling off here pretty soon
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13 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Don’t look now, but the short side of the natty trade is about to take their annual bloodbath, and there are a few factors starting to come together at once that could make it an historic, Carrie-esque bloodbath.  

 

13 hours ago, Lobo said:

When credit starts to get quiet for small-to-mid-sized producers...sometimes. Not always, not endorsing it...but sometimes...you see the VPP model start to rear its head.  

Anyway you two could elaborate on your statements for the curious but intellectually challenged?

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

 

Anyway you two could elaborate on your statements for the curious but intellectually challenged?

winter-is-coming.jpgAnd reduced financing for drilling means less supply, perhaps.  Cold Winter with less NG supply means, perhaps, higher prices till the supply is corrected.

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1 hour ago, Hate said:

There are hints of another front next week that may be the coldest yet. A typhoon in the Pacific is expected to disrupt the weather patterns and force the cold air down from Canada. It could be a cold couple of weeks.

Yep.  It's basically cut the build/shoulder season a bit short and will put us back at or under the 5 year average storage for the beginning of winter, which was completely unexpected.  Any massive cold blasts are going to skyrocket demand, and that could lead us into some firm pricing stability.  

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2 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

So, how long should you hold UGAZ going into the winter season then?

 

Once UGAZ and DGAZ prices cross, that's a clear sign that you should sell.  However, it's never a bad idea to sell on friday every week.  You don't want to be holding that over a weekend where the Sunday at 12am EST has a Euro run that completely flips from a bullish friday.  You'll get fried at the open on monday.  I always set aside a certain amount of money, and buy the same amount of shares.  So if I buy 4000 shares at 14, and it runs to 22, I may sell out and let it drift back down.   Then I'll buy the same 4000 shares back and ride the train.  I'll do that until I see some patterns like we're having right now, where I'm prepared to let it ride because I can see it running to $40-50 in very short order if we keep getting these winter blasts through Nov and Dec.  Somewhere out there, there's a hedge fund guy that is way, way overshort natty, and the other hedge funds know it, and they'll try to break him.  

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On 11/3/2019 at 9:01 PM, Lobo said:

When credit starts to get quiet for small-to-mid-sized producers...sometimes. Not always, not endorsing it...but sometimes...you see the VPP model start to rear its head.  

Already starting. They are just going to be called asset backed securities rather than VPPs. Pretty much the same thing and will end up having the same result. 2020 is going to be a fucking bloodbath. 
 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-float-shale-bonds-as-traditional-investors-flee-11571606865

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5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Once UGAZ and DGAZ prices cross, that's a clear sign that you should sell.  However, it's never a bad idea to sell on friday every week.  You don't want to be holding that over a weekend where the Sunday at 12am EST has a Euro run that completely flips from a bullish friday.  You'll get fried at the open on monday.  I always set aside a certain amount of money, and buy the same amount of shares.  So if I buy 4000 shares at 14, and it runs to 22, I may sell out and let it drift back down.   Then I'll buy the same 4000 shares back and ride the train.  I'll do that until I see some patterns like we're having right now, where I'm prepared to let it ride because I can see it running to $40-50 in very short order if we keep getting these winter blasts through Nov and Dec.  Somewhere out there, there's a hedge fund guy that is way, way overshort natty, and the other hedge funds know it, and they'll try to break him.  

Thanks for the feedback. I've been playing the aggressive run-up in Valero and Marathon a good bit with deep in the money calls since the whole Saudi refinery attack as well as earnings but the volatility has been limited recently so the secret must be out. I've stayed away from DGAZ, but with UGAZ - NE cold snaps in the winter and So. Cal heat waves in the summer usually have a good bit of warning to play around it seems. Just trying to find something to trade around, scalp a few hundred a day if I can.

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Already starting. They are just going to be called asset backed securities rather than VPPs. Pretty much the same thing and will end up having the same result. 2020 is going to be a fucking bloodbath. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-float-shale-bonds-as-traditional-investors-flee-11571606865
So how does work for smaller companies? The wells are already pledged to secure the borrowing base. Why would the banks let them take wells out of the collateral?
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Anyone else getting into CHK? I can’t help myself. I’ve been in and out and never made much money on it but I’m picking up some shares just for shits at this price. 

If you like the oil and gas assets seek out the senior secured bonds and buy those. They likely are trading at a discount. You will own a piece of the company (or a good piece of it) after the restructuring and have the upside. I have no idea if there is a minimum purchase amount. You might get lucky with the stock and time a bump just right but pretty soon the stock will be worthless.
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Pretty sure there’s a very good reason those “senior secured” bonds are trading at a discount. They’re primed by RBL debt. 

Exactly. And of course both are paid ahead of stockholders. It’s not even clear that the senior notes are in the money. The point is that the stock.is probably worthless or will be soon. But if you like the assets buy a security senior to the stock.
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1 hour ago, DCA_HORN said:
On 11/5/2019 at 12:28 PM, Lagunamadre said:
Already starting. They are just going to be called asset backed securities rather than VPPs. Pretty much the same thing and will end up having the same result. 2020 is going to be a fucking bloodbath. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-float-shale-bonds-as-traditional-investors-flee-11571606865

So how does work for smaller companies? The wells are already pledged to secure the borrowing base. Why would the banks let them take wells out of the collateral?

No clue. I would imagine this could only be done by the operator/non-op owner on unencumbered assets, so perhaps PE backed assets where this might have a better option than traditional debt. I doubt there will be much of an appetite in the investment market for these type of deals, although I do know that some struggling operators are starting to peel off some ORRI on their leasehold to raise capital, which is essentially the same thing. 

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