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Hey Oil Barons.......


936horn

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

It’s not global, not even close to crude.  We produce 100 Bcfd. I’m not bullish on gas except I think it’s interesting NG hasn’t really moved much and is starting to come up. We still have entirely to much has in this country, and that’s not stopping any time soon. 

To classify NG as a regional or domestic commodity in 2020 is inaccurate. We require exports to balance supply/demand given current close to record high levels of production. That makes it global. Look at ng versus nbp/ttf/jkm  on a chart. 

I don’t think we are disagreeing with each other except for that point.

As for price...we’ve held multi year lows, which I guess is supportive. Balances in the near term, however, are a train wreck. Burns from power generation will have to remain at all time highs to keep the bottom in. Tough ask in the current state of affairs.

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51 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

It’s not global, not even close to crude.  We produce 100 Bcfd. I’m not bullish on gas except I think it’s interesting NG hasn’t really moved much and is starting to come up. We still have entirely to much has in this country, and that’s not stopping any time soon. 

Our production is actually down to about 92.5/bn cfd as of recent.  We may drop to 80 in the coming months.  

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Look at historical prices in Europe versus US - and even today. I disagree it’s global. It’s trending in that direction but not there yet. 

Good. I presume this is the associated gas drop you’re anticipating. At $1.75 and trending upward, I don’t see an Appalachian slowdown. 

When shale drilling stops, doesn't majority of NG production go away? I would assume NG prices could see big jump soon.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Look at historical prices in Europe versus US - and even today. I disagree it’s global. It’s trending in that direction but not there yet. 

Good. I presume this is the associated gas drop you’re anticipating. At $1.75 and trending upward, I don’t see an Appalachian slowdown. 

Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk?

As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd. 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What was gas in Europe about a year ago?  $6?  Of course there’s a correlation. If it’s a true global commodity, there’s gonna be a few benchmarks within 10% of one another. When the LNG market is greater than 10% of production, you’ll have a better argument. 

I guess we are just arguing semantics of a “global commodity”. My view is that it is, now. PSA... running into producer hedging in 2021 at 2.50+... those lots will find their way to the front of the market at some point soon. Happy Gas Trading and good evening.

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36 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Another 3500? Or the same ones that had been announced a week or two ago? 
 

they had previously announced 3500 furloughs on March 18th. Just curious if there are more. 


https://www.rigzone.com/news/halliburton_to_furlough_3500_workers_in_houston-19-mar-2020-161430-article/

 

it's the same group. not sure why the houston news had it at the top their page 

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12 hours ago, JimmyTwoTimes said:

Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk?

As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd. 

 

 

Without an oil correction I don't know how production doesn't drop under 80 this summer. We will switch from an NG exporter in an importer in short order.

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36 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Associated gas is about 12% of this country’s nat gas production. Maybe 15%. Can’t find a recent figure. We are not dropping to 80 this summer or likely at all. 

 

34 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’ve read it’s upward of 40% 

 

27 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No more than 20%. 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41873

 

12% per EIA (from 2018 though)

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Another week another 15+MM build in inventories.  This all seems to be priced in as we're still up >3%.  I'm still short oil, as this rally seems to be artificial, maybe people unwinding short positions?

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1 minute ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Well fuck. The perfect storm we are in has now affected me. Just got the world that after next week the project is reducing everyone (well, most everyone’s) hours per week to 30. Yeah, I still have a job, but my gut feeling is this project gets mothballed.

Houston?

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On 4/7/2020 at 5:20 AM, Johnny Chimpo said:

Yes, my father had a 40 year career with HAL. Not sure how he did it, just tough and smart enough to escape the chopping block umpteen times best I can tell. Anyways, those service companies don’t wait to make deep cuts. 

I was driving through El Reno, OK over the weekend and saw what appeared to be a brand new, very modern looking Haliburton building with a "for sale" sign out front. The place looked like it had never been used. Then I saw the gas stations offering .99/gal. Tough times around here for sure.

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Well fuck. The perfect storm we are in has now affected me. Just got the world that after next week the project is reducing everyone (well, most everyone’s) hours per week to 30. Yeah, I still have a job, but my gut feeling is this project gets mothballed.

Damn... I get minutes for FEED projects. Good luck man. I hope you land on your feet.
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