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Hey Oil Barons.......


936horn

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17 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Their office space will soon be for rent 

 

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Lulz. Yeah, my opinion is somewhere down the road they’ll have a 3rd BK. 

 

5 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:
On 6/6/2020 at 11:49 AM, TexanTraveling said:
anybody have thoughts or opinions on the future of Sanchez Energy?

Besides run away?

No chance they would be bought out or that the restructure might work?

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BOD, C-suite, and ExMngmt regret to inform you that no one knows more about the assets that than they do. Their experience with bankruptcy. Their relationship with the rank and file. They’d be willing to stay onboard for a small COLA and pittance in retention bonus. Surely the shareholders will see the value!

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Not that I have the wherewithal to do it, but looks like the last week or so some of the easiest money you could ever make would be wait for the WTI contract to get pushed down -1.5 - 2.0%, buy it and sell when it recovers the losses back to its previous close.  Rinse, repeat, make bank / get ass.

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3 minutes ago, DCA_HORN said:
3 hours ago, stone oak said:
Every deal I'm seeing is massively overvalued with ridiculously optimistic type curves. So, business as usual.

Let me guess 1.8 b factors and Dmin of 4?

Pretty freaking close...marketed EURs nearly cut in half after we ran through them. Yikes.

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

EUR should be irrelevant to the price crash. 

I was just trying to get a feel on whether bullshit production numbers were coming down from previous peaks now that info is out that they were all, well what was the word I used... yeah, bullshit.

If companies are still putting out bullshit EUR and people are still falling for it, then investors have no one to blame but themselves.  Thankfully in stone oak's case he is actually providing sound due diligence.  Just wonder if others woke up and are enlisting the help of those like him or if they still fly blind to the crap projections trotted out by those that drill for stock certificates?

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-writeoffs/bp-to-take-up-to-17-5-billion-writedown-lowers-oil-outlook-idUSKBN23M0QA#:~:text=LONDON (Reuters) - BP (BP.&text=As a result%2C BP will,after tax%2C the company said.

 

Quote

LONDON (Reuters) - BP (BP.L) will write off up to $17.5 billion from the value of its assets after cutting its long-term oil and gas price forecasts, betting the COVID-19 crisis will cast a lasting chill on energy demand and accelerate a shift away from fossil fuels.

Like its rivals, the British oil major is set to take a big hit to revenue from an unprecedented collapse in oil demand due to the pandemic. The impairments are set to raise its debt burden sharply and increase pressure to reduce its dividend.

The move comes as Chief Executive Bernard Looney prepares to outline his strategy in September to “reinvent” BP including a reduced focus on oil and gas and a larger renewables business.

BP lowered its benchmark Brent oil price forecasts to an average of $55 a barrel until 2050, down by around 30% from previous assumptions of $70.

The outlook is the lowest among Europe's top energy companies, according to Barclays research

That's going to sting a little

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1 hour ago, OilChuck said:

Extraction up here in Denver filed for Bankruptcy https://finance.yahoo.com/news/extraction-oil-gas-files-bankruptcy-080637452.html 

 Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. plans to pay 16 executives and senior managers a total of $6.7 million in return for staying with the Colorado-based driller ahead of a possible default on its bond payments.

Rank-and-file employees may receive a cash payment equivalent to their target 2020 pay, the Denver-based company said in a statement Thursday. The payments will help “maintain the stability and cohesion of our workforce,” it said.

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On 5/29/2020 at 1:34 PM, Storm the Field said:

Another 17 rigs dropped this week, breaking even further into record low territory. Down to 301 total. 103 below the previous low set in late May 2016. 

11th straight weekly decline for a cumulative 492 rigs laid down since the first Friday of March 2020.

I'll throw out a wild guess that the first two reports in June will show another ~25 down before hitting a bottom at ~275. The next few weeks after that will show only minor fluctuations <7 up or down. 

Pretty accurate so far. First week of June reported another 17 down, and then just 5 dropped last week. Current count is 279. 

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1) “will” and “can” are 2 different things.
2) while I won’t encourage my kids to find work in O&G, I don’t see how/why historically low prices would cause a global shift away from hydrocarbons.
3)Over supply, low consumption, and the resulting sustained low commodity prices may be hell on shitco and a huge hit to the majors for the next year(s), but demand isn’t going to zero and someone will own and produce the assets at their break-even prices.

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So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?

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38 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I think I’m closing on my little piddly deal Friday or early next week. $2MM. PV10 of $3.2MM. A lot of low hanging fruit. Very little P&A. I’m so excited. I’m so excited. I’m so.... scared. 

Good luck getting it over the finish line, I know you've wanted to do something like this for quite some time.  Are you going to hedge or nah?

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I think I’m closing on my little piddly deal Friday or early next week. $2MM. PV10 of $3.2MM. A lot of low hanging fruit. Very little P&A. I’m so excited. I’m so excited. I’m so.... scared. 

Overall PV10 value or is that just for the PDP piece of it? Of course it depends on the assets, but for the larger deals I come across very little value is given for PUDs and Possibles.
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2 hours ago, Parliament said:

So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?

No one knows shit. Pick as side. Pour a drink. And place your bets

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3 hours ago, Parliament said:

So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?

Yes

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So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?
Will populations continue to grow and will third world countries continue to develop?
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I think I’m closing on my little piddly deal Friday or early next week. $2MM. PV10 of $3.2MM. A lot of low hanging fruit. Very little P&A. I’m so excited. I’m so excited. I’m so.... scared. 
If you're not scared, there's not enough meat on the bone.
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14 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I'm gonna say.  If you are in oil and gas or chemicals right now.  No matter how safe you think your job is.  If you don't have a backup plan.  You might be a fool

always

ive lost count of the dips and crashes since I graduated in 97. you better have at least 6 months pay put away if you want to last in this business, and be prepared to stretch that if needed. 

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