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Huckleberry

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2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

There were actually a few of you who PMed me to ask if the site was dead forever, and I told you I was working on getting it back up. It's back up, let me know if you see any issues as I'm sure I screwed something up in the server transition. Still a lot of work to be done as we're working to improve it and engage in a full site redesign by next season.

http://www.adjustedstats.com

And before you ask, @Beau Vine, no I have not yet done 2017 or started 2018 Texas high school ratings. You will have to accuse me of bias in all large caps later.

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The things I like about predictors like this involve pinpointing those areas that a team has to outperform results on in order to pull off an upset. The example of Texas against OU is why this is such a cool tool; you dive into the numbers, and it basically boils down to, if Texas can outperform expectations in the run game when they've got the ball, and not get blown out in the passing game when they don't, Texas has a decent shot. Don't do those two things, they'll lose.

The thing it doesn't do, though, is account for things like picking up a fake play script before the game. Or trying to play quarterback with a hangover.

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Do I have the ratings figured out:

EWP = expected win percentage against the field.

Offense = points/game against the field (we project to score 32.6 ppg)

Defense = differential points allowed/game against the field (we project to allow 7.8 ppg less than the field)

?????

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