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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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1 minute ago, Foosters said:

So if the Oligarchs (Putin's cronies and the only people to benefit from his regime) help topple him, they are going to be treated like . . . what exactly when the dust clears?

If I'm an oligarch, I ride with Vlad. Sure, my wealth will be slashed dramatically. But its better than my throat.

Vlad doesn't have THAT much power, especially right now, to kill off oligarchs thousands of miles away.  Two things...first, plausible deniability, maintain it at all times.  Second, if you go for the king's crown, don't swing and miss.  If and when he goes down, you can bet those that helped bet on his demise will be left in MUCH better shape vs those who were backing him to the end.  And I can assure you, all those oligarchs are thinking about themselves and their own money 10000x before Putin's well being pops into their head. 

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5 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

Friend of mine in Conroe sent me a video Saturday of a train hauling nothing but M1A2 Abrams tanks, headed towards the port of Houston. Got a message this morning that a US flagged vessel took priority loading delaying our shipments. Hmmm, wonder what that could be. Hopefully they never see action but at least they are going in the right direction if we do need them.

America, Fuck Yea!

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15 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The massive loss of personal wealth and destruction of the oligarchs lifestyle is what will force someone to try and take down Putin from the inside. 
 

The Russian people may be able to overthrow the government, but that is something months or years in the making through crushing economic conditions and famine. The oligarchs though are in some ways easier to motivate.

 

Putin and the oligarchs are tied at the hip.  If he goes down, they may too.

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4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

My next fear with this is what happens if this becomes a long bloody stalemate? A protracted stalemate would devastate the region physically and economically.

Let’s not forget that the Ukraine is the breadbasket for that part of the world, including the Arab countries bordering the Mediterranean. If this keeps up, no crops in the ground so no crops to export so lots of hungry people in a relatively unstable part of the world.

War is scary not only because of the conflict and loss of life it entails, but because it has a terrifying habit of spreading. Starving people fight to eat. Starving people overthrow their governments because that is one of the universal expectations for anyone being governed is to be able to eat. 


Though this may not be a world war it could easily spin off into multiple regional conflicts driven by the need to feed the populace or at least take their mind of their hunger by instead fighting their historic enemy.

I'm thinking Russia is going to run out of money and supplies before too long. 

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Vlad doesn't have THAT much power, especially right now, to kill off oligarchs thousands of miles away.  Two things...first, plausible deniability, maintain it at all times.  Second, if you go for the king's crown, don't swing and miss.  If and when he goes down, you can bet those that helped bet on his demise will be left in MUCH better shape vs those who were backing him to the end.  And I can assure you, all those oligarchs are thinking about themselves and their own money 10000x before Putin's well being pops into their head. 

All of that, plus it's most likely that Putin's replacement will come from their ranks, and they know it, and will position themselves for it.  Without an internal revolution, the Russian people still aren't going to have a real chance at democratically electing their leaders.

Edited by utee94
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I agree BP saying that they're going to sell off their Russian interests is an interesting development. Of course the value of it dropped in half over the past few weeks, before the ruble dropped today.  What's the net results down 60-70% in value over a month? 

And who's going to buy it? Putin might print rubles to have someone locally buy the share but BP will want USD or GBP which Russia doesn't have to spare.

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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

All of that, plus it's most likely that Putin's replacement will come from their ranks, and they know it.  Without an internal revolution, the Russian people still aren't going to have a real chance at democratically electing their leaders.

For a few brief years, Russia was somewhat of a democracy. Then Putin happened. And here we are.

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Vlad doesn't have THAT much power, especially right now, to kill off oligarchs thousands of miles away.  Two things...first, plausible deniability, maintain it at all times.  Second, if you go for the king's crown, don't swing and miss.  If and when he goes down, you can bet those that helped bet on his demise will be left in MUCH better shape vs those who were backing him to the end.  And I can assure you, all those oligarchs are thinking about themselves and their own money 10000x before Putin's well being pops into their head. 

I'm not talking about Vlad killing them. I'm talking about the power vacuum that will exist should Vlad fall. Would you feel safe as an Oligarch in that world? Vlad offers protection - even if offered with a side of polonium should you veer too far. Collaborators and buddies of dictators usually don't fare all that well when the regime crumbles.

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23 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

 

Texas DPS: how can we get in on those seized properties?

Heck, there is or at least was a 200 foot yacht and 80 foot sport fishing boat owned by the Russian finance minister an hour up the ocean from me in Costa Rica. If I find out it’s still there I’ll split them with any of y’all that want to come seize them with me.

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1 minute ago, Foosters said:

I'm not talking about Vlad killing them. I'm talking about the power vacuum that will exist should Vlad fall. Would you feel safe as an Oligarch in that world? Vlad offers protection - even if offered with a side of polonium should you veer too far. Collaborators and buddies of dictators usually don't fare all that well when the regime crumbles.

I’d feel much safer if I helped usher him out.  As utee pointed out - that puts me in much better position to dictate who the next asshole is.  

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40 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I'm no expert by any means, but that doesn't look like "regular" artillery and looks like cluster munitions.  Am I mistaken here?

Just talking out my ass here, because I was never on the receiving end of it-- I'd guess a battery of something in the 82mm range, maybe mortars? I hear 12 explosions so maybe a unit of 6 each throwing out two shots?

I doubt it was much bigger than that because of the way the two cars didn't move much when the last shell blew up between them.

But I'm just guessing.

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1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Heck, there is or at least was a 200 foot yacht and 80 foot sport fishing boat owned by the Russian finance minister an hour up the ocean from me in Costa Rica. If I find out it’s still there I’ll split them with any of y’all that want to come seize them with me.

other day, i saw that one of the EU countries seized the yacht of an oligarch. it said the yacht was know to be used to cut undersea cables. 

my thought was, the fuck have you been waiting for all this time to seize it if everyone knew they were cutting cables? it took Ukraine to encourage the world to grow some balls.

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12 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

Friend of mine in Conroe sent me a video Saturday of a train hauling nothing but M1A2 Abrams tanks, headed towards the port of Houston. Got a message this morning that a US flagged vessel took priority loading delaying our shipments. Hmmm, wonder what that could be. Hopefully they never see action but at least they are going in the right direction if we do need them.

It takes 20-45 days to get freight shipped across the Atlantic.     These are not going to Ukraine.   If they are indeed being shipped from Ft. Hood to Europe, they're going to sit in Germany or France.  

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3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

I'm surprised they have waited that long.  In my eyes if I'm at war with a country and you send him weapons.  You become my enemy.  That should have been a day 1 thing even if it was an empty threat.  Even providing Ukraine with Intel is an act of war.  We are playing that annoying ass game of I'm not touching you.  If Russia bombs a NATO convoy they have every right to.  

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52 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

The reporters on all the news channels I have been watching said there are checkpoints everywhere…the convoy of tanks is 17 or so miles out and 17 miles fucking long with gaps and such but still. I hope they have enough stingers etc…we know the Russians aren’t fighting at night and if I’m Ukrainian military/militia/everyone who can pick up a weapon….I’m hitting that fucking convoy with everything I have right now at night.

dracarys-game-of-thrones.gif.2f836b9289cc34670a4ad21bb5aa664b.gif

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51 minutes ago, PTINS said:

IF we are dragged into Ukraine, ok. US involvement would be put a small part of larger EU/NATO effort. If Ukraine airspace is controlled by Ukraine and their many friends, game over for conventional warfare in Ukraine. Who knows what happens then.

In any case, no US carriers battle groups are moving any closer than where they are. 

Conversely, anything involved w/ China/Taiwan would be waterborne and airborne.  No reason to put boots on the ground IN China.  China is in a posistion to gain immensly from this; would they put it all at risk for Taiwan for a bruised national pride. 

My father was stationed in Taiwan in '67-68, "still got the shirt."

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Mine was there 10 years before yours.

we lived in Taipei...

 

FD3E7061-3A62-40FF-80F8-E2E43D62EA62.jpeg

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1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

I'm surprised they have waited that long.  In my eyes if I'm at war with a country and you send him weapons.  You become my enemy.  That should have been a day 1 thing even if it was an empty threat.  Even providing Ukraine with Intel is an act of war.  We are playing that annoying ass game of I'm not touching you.  If Russia bombs a NATO convoy they have every right to.  

at this point, removing Putin should be the end goal. Putin isn't going to "lose" this war. if this shit gets "resolved" and he's still in power, it's like putting a idiotic uncontrollable kid in time out praying that he doesn't lash out again, which everyone fucking knows that he will. 

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree BP saying that they're going to sell off their Russian interests is an interesting development. Of course the value of it dropped in half over the past few weeks, before the ruble dropped today.  What's the net results down 60-70% in value over a month? 

And who's going to buy it? Putin might print rubles to have someone locally buy the share but BP will want USD or GBP which Russia doesn't have to spare.

I heard on BBC that for now, BP is simply resigning the board seat and marking value of the shares to zero for their own financials, not taking part in dividends, etc. They aren't going to technically sell off the shares.  They are just going to forgo any pecuniary benefit to them until they can figure out how to handle.  

Shell doing something similar in Gazprom JV - writing down the value to zero for now, or something to that effect,

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1 minute ago, crash_davis said:

For a few brief years, Russia was somewhat of a democracy. Then Putin happened. And here we are.

when? 1991? just because it was "more free" than every election they have had since doesn't mean it was "somewhat of a democracy"

because Medvedev said that the 96 election was rigged. Or sure, maybe incumbent guy who polled worse than Stalin in 1996 was somehow able to bypass like 4 people, make the runoff and win

Quote

The European Institute for Media found that Yeltsin received 53% of all media coverage of the campaign, while Zyuganov received only 18%. In their evaluation of the biases of news stories, EIM awarded each candidate 1 point for every positive story they received and subtracted a point for every negative story they received. In the first round of the election, Yeltsin scored +492 and Zyuganov scored -313. In the second round of the election, Yeltsin scored +247 and Zyuganov scored -240.

Russia has not had a truly democratic leader in who knows how long.

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2 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I heard on BBC that for now, BP is simply resigning the board seat and marking value of the shares to zero for their own financials, not taking part in dividends, etc. They aren't going to technically sell off the shares.  They are just going to forgo any pecuniary benefit to them until they can figure out how to handle.  

Shell doing something similar in Gazprom JV - writing down the value to zero for now, or something to that effect,

This is kind of just feel good posturing for BP and Shell.    It does hurt the Russians but until BP/Shell burn the certificates or donate them to charity/Ukraine this is just corporate gamesmanship.

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2 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

at this point, removing Putin should be the end goal. Putin isn't going to "lose" this war. if this shit gets "resolved" and he's still in power, it's like putting a idiotic uncontrollable kid in time out praying that he doesn't lash out again, which everyone fucking knows that he will. 

Putin doesn't survive this.  It's Ukraine or bust.  He has no hole to crawl into.  He has nothing left.  This ends him.  He's going to try to arm nukes and his people have to act.  

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Holy shit at this fucking letter:

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Zaporozhian Cossacks to the Turkish Sultan!

O sultan, Turkish devil and damned devil's kith and kin, secretary to Lucifer himself. What the devil kind of knight are thou, that canst not slay a hedgehog with your naked arse? The devil shits, and your army eats. Thou shalt not, thou son of a whore, make subjects of Christian sons. We have no fear of your army; by land and by sea we will battle with thee. Fuck thy mother.

Thou Babylonian scullion, Macedonian wheelwright, brewer of Jerusalem, goat-fucker of Alexandria, swineherd of Greater and Lesser Egypt, pig of Armenia, Podolian thief, catamite of Tartary, hangman of Kamyanets, and fool of all the world and underworld, an idiot before God, grandson of the Serpent, and the crick in our dick. Pig's snout, mare's arse, slaughterhouse cur, unchristened brow. Screw thine own mother!

So the Zaporozhians declare, you lowlife. You won't even be herding pigs for the Christians. Now we'll conclude, for we don't know the date and don't own a calendar; the moon's in the sky, the year with the Lord. The day's the same over here as it is over there; for this kiss our arse!

 

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7 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I'm surprised they have waited that long.  In my eyes if I'm at war with a country and you send him weapons.  You become my enemy.  That should have been a day 1 thing even if it was an empty threat.  Even providing Ukraine with Intel is an act of war.  We are playing that annoying ass game of I'm not touching you.  If Russia bombs a NATO convoy they have every right to.  

I’d imagine many of the NOTO commanders are hoping they will do just that

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