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2020 Senate Elections


Patrick Bateman

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26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LETS GET STARTED

There will be an appointee by Kemp to serve until the general election and both GA seats will be up in 2020. This one to fill the seat until 2022. Similar to the McCain seat.

Wow....I don’t have any animosity towards this particular senator. I definitely feel bad for the guy.

 

with that said, Georgia is getting bluer every election. I just don’t think the repubs are going to let it happen in 2020 tho. Especially with a presidency, 2 senate seats, and more on the line. Would’ve been really nice to have Stacey abrams on the ballot.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/johnny-isakson-retire/index.html

Georgia GOP senator Isakson to retire at the end of the year.  His term goes thru 2022.   Does GA have to run a special election or do they allow the governor to appoint the replacement for the remaining term?  If it's a replacement, special election, you have to think Stacey Abrams is a candidate.

EDIT: typo / broken brain.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/johnny-isakson-retire/index.html

Georgia GOP senator Isakson to retire at the end of the year.  His term goes thru 2022.   Does GA have to run a special election or do they allow the governor to appoint the replacement for the remaining term?  If it's a replacement, you have to think Stacey Abrams is a candidate.

yeah, kemp is going to appoint abrams.

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5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/johnny-isakson-retire/index.html

Georgia GOP senator Isakson to retire at the end of the year.  His term goes thru 2022.   Does GA have to run a special election or do they allow the governor to appoint the replacement for the remaining term?  If it's a replacement, special election, you have to think Stacey Abrams is a candidate.

EDIT: typo / broken brain.

Stacey said no already.

Kemp appoints a replacement.  Replacement serves until Nov 2020 and a special election is held.  Winner is up again in 2022 for the full term.  Same as McCain's seat (Ducey appointed McSally; McSally vs. Kelly in 2020, winner goes again in 2022). 

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Just now, kevwun said:

I can't say I blame her.  2 statewide elections in a 2 year period would suck balls.

Like Bullock, it's v obvious she does not want to be in the Senate.  Period.  At all.

She might as well already start her 2022 governor campaign.  She's clearly going to run that one again. 

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9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Moscow Mitch having a tough morning. 

Unfortunately for the Dems,  GA has some of the weakest electoral integrity in the country.

True.

But this is a full frontal assault by the Democrats on Georgia

2 Senate seats
Presidential (Trump only win by 5.7)
Defending GA-6
Going after GA-7 (R+0.15 in 2018)

 

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2 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Does anyone gather any idea what the Democrat bench in Georgia looks like? Sure the pressure play looks good but they need good candidates other than Abrams. 

You already have Ted Terry (Clarkston mayor), Teresa Tomlinson (former mayor of Columbus) and Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov nominee in 2018) going for Perdue's seat.  One or more could flip to the special election.

You also have Jason Carter (2014 governor nominee and Jimmy's grandson), Stacey Evans (lost to Abrams in the primary), Michelle Nunn (2014 senate nominee), Ossoff and Sally Yates. 

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What sucks is that we're going to have basically a jungle primary (at least with multiple Dem candidates) for his seat in the general election in November 2020 and almost certainly a runoff unless somehow only one R and one D candidate file.

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I made a table of the potentially vulnerable Republican Senators and open positions. I included their winning percentage, loosing in McSally's case,the PVI and governor for the state noting that KY looks like it will flip in 2019. And I used their approval/disapproval numbers and Trumps net approval in their state from Morning Consult.

Senator

St

Win%

PVI

Approval

Trump

Gov

Martha McSally

AZ

47.6L

R+5

40/37

-7

R

Dan Sullivan

AK

48.0

R+9

44/29

-2

R

Cory Gardner

CO

48.2

D+1

37/37

-8

D

Thom Tillis

NC

48.8

R+3

33/35

-1

D

Joni Ernst

IA

52.1

R+3

42/38

-11

R

David Perdue

GA

52.9

R+5

48/26

+2

R

Open

KS

53.1

R+13

NA

+5

D

Open

GA

54.8

R+5

NA

+2

R

Moscow Mitch

KY

56.2

R+15

36/50

+15

D?

John Cornyn

TX

61.6

R+8

43/25

+6

R

Susan Collins

ME

68.5

D+3

45/48

-13

D

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Ah.  Got it.  Not projected winning percentage, just last election.  So basically just data.  Carry on.

 

For most of them, their last race was a GOP favored midterm year. So not the best comparison. 

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

For most of them, their last race was a GOP favored midterm year. So not the best comparison. 

The point is if they did poorly in 2014 they are vulnerable now, unless they had a big jump in popularity. Even if they won by 5 or 6 points they are vulnerable in today's environment.

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5 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

For whatever you think of him, if he runs for the Governor's mansion, that's another lost seat most likely.

 

It’s confusing. If the leg change the law - special. If not, he appoints his replacement. If he loses, he goes back to the senate. Former governor Earl Ray Tomblin would be a great candidate in a special or via appointment. 

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5 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

For whatever you think of him, if he runs for the Governor's mansion, that's another lost seat most likely.

 

It’s confusing. If the leg change the law - special. If not, he appoints his replacement. If he loses, he goes back to the senate. Former governor Earl Ray Tomblin would be a great candidate in a special or via appointment. 

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And Schumer can unclench.  Manchin is staying put. 

If the Democrats win some combo of Arizona/NC/Iowa/Colorado/Kansas/Texas/Georgia (+4) and lose Alabama (-1) but win the Presidency (50 + tiebreaker), he will be the most powerful man in Washington.    

Edited by Js1
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7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Hope there are some alternatives to Ossoff 

he’s okay but georgia could do better.

There will be plenty. Remember, the Georgia special is jungle rules. Top 2 to the runoff unless someone clears 50

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Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Ok, give up the oppo research. I'm game. Is he Manchin? 

No, it’s nothing like that and he might make a fine Senator but he didn’t impress me in the 2017 special election.  

“Ossoff running for Senate in Georgia!”

I’m like, “Can Andrew Gillum please move to Georgia and landslide this thing instead?” 

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

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11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No, it’s nothing like that and he might make a fine Senator but he didn’t impress me in the 2017 special election.  

“Ossoff running for Senate in Georgia!”

I’m like, “Can Andrew Gillum please move to Georgia and landslide this thing instead?” 

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

Yeah and the guy from Montana is still chasing a pipe dream. And don't get me started on Beto. Maybe MJ can get it done, but...you gotta play with the cards your dealt. 

Where does Beto go from here? Is he fighting for the VP spot?

Mixing threads. 

Y'all see where Joe Kennedy is polling better than Markey?

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34 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No, it’s nothing like that and he might make a fine Senator but he didn’t impress me in the 2017 special election.  

“Ossoff running for Senate in Georgia!”

I’m like, “Can Andrew Gillum please move to Georgia and landslide this thing instead?” 

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

The others that have announced aren't that much more progressive honestly. Keep in mind the campaign he ran was supposed to be the first true test against Trump in a special election where turnout was going to be lower than any November election. I lived in GA-06 at the time and voted for him (met him briefly at a campaign event), he will have a ton of name recognition, especially in the Atlanta metro, and hopefully will run on more than "cut government waste."

I think he'll run on more (probably marginally) progressive issues, he's already come out against Citizens United which was more than anything he said back in 2017.

McBath who beat Handel isn't that much different other than being for gun reform, she hasn't even come out in favor of impeachment because this district must be too important for Pelosi to gamble on. I really have been disappointed by her.

 

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10 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

Running to challenge Perdue:

  • Sarah Riggs Amico - Lt. Gov nominee in 2018 (lost by 3.2)
  • Jon Ossoff - 2017 GA-6 nominee (lost by 3.56 in runoff)
  • Ted Terry - mayor of Clarkston
  • Teresa Tomlinson - former mayor of Columbus

Running for the open seat: no one declared yet; potential nominees include: 

  • Jason Carter - Gov nominee in 2014 (lost by 7.8 in strong GOP year)
  • Lucy McBath - GA-6 rep (won by 1.02 in 2018)
  • Michelle Nunn - Senate nominee in 2014 (lost by 7.7 in strong GOP year)
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