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OK, so an invasion, or Venezuelan action would not be overlooked. Wonder why they did not bring up the Rio Treaty and why the OAS is so silent on this matter.

https://www.oas.org/juridico/english/treaties/b-29.html

Here is the Treaty.

Office of the Spokesperson

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Guyanese President Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali to reaffirm the United States’ unwavering support for Guyana’s sovereignty.  The Secretary reiterated the United States’ call for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and for all parties to respect the 1899 arbitral award determining the land boundary between Venezuela and Guyana, unless, or until, the parties reach a new agreement, or a competent legal body decides otherwise.  Secretary Blinken and President Ali noted the International Court of Justice order issued on December 1, which called for parties to refrain from any action that might aggravate or extend the dispute.  The Secretary reiterated that the United States looks forward to working closely with Guyana once it assumes its non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council in January 2024.  The two leaders concluded the call by agreeing upon the importance of maintaining a peaceful and democratic Western Hemisphere.

Edited by InkaUtexas
Added the treaty for PoliSci nerds.
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10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So if we're talking about borders from the 1800s..

69591a7ed96c23c1d8bbdd869bc72795.png

Just Saying Bernie Sanders GIF by Saturday Night Live

And don't forget Harmon County.  The Texas border should be the North Fork of the Red River.  That would also make Darrel Royal a native Texan.  Wins all around.

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Interesting.

Also Guyana lost one of their Helicopters along the border yesterday. 

The United States said it will carry out military flights in Guyana on Thursday in a joint operation as the South American country faces soaring tensions with neighboring Venezuela over a contested oil-rich region.

"In collaboration with the Guyana Defence Force, the U.S. Southern Command will conduct flight operations within Guyana on December 7," the American embassy in Guyana said in a statement, noting the flights are part of "routine engagement" to enhance a security partnership between the two countries.

A border feud has recently spiraled over the oil-rich Essequibo region, controlled by Guyana for more than a century but which Venezuela also claims and has voiced intent to take over.

https://www.barrons.com/news/us-announces-military-air-exercises-in-guyana-amid-venezuela-tensions-3bca2752

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2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

"In collaboration with the Guyana Defence Force, the U.S. Southern Command will conduct flight operations within Guyana on December 7," the American embassy in Guyana said in a statement, noting the flights are part of "routine engagement" to enhance a security partnership between the two countries.

 

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-venezuela-threatens-to-invade-oil-rich-guyana-us-worries-about-how-far-maduro-will-go/ar-AA1la33M

Long/good article, basically this is probably more a play about consolidating power/declaring martial law ahead of next year's elections, as well as distracting from Venezuela's economic problems.

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enezuela’s threats to annex a majority of Guyana may be an effort by its leader to consolidate power at home ahead of a potential presidential election next year instead of a real intention to invade its neighbor, U.S. officials say. But Washington is increasingly concerned over how far Nicolas Maduro may be willing to go.

An internal State Department assessment, as well as the consensus of international observers and independent analysts, is that Maduro is seeking leverage against the United States at the negotiating table by threatening an invasion of western Guyana, a region rich in oil and gas that has been the subject of dispute between the two countries for over a century.

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Maduro has been under U.S. sanctions for years for undermining Venezuelan democracy and is currently under pressure from Washington to hold free and fair elections.

The Biden administration is not seeing imminent signs of an invasion. But the possibility is raising anxiety levels in the region. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres on Wednesday called on Caracas to avoid the use of force and to respect the recent ruling of the International Court of Justice. The U.N. court last week called on Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would change Guyana’s control and administration of the Essequibo region, which remains part of a territorial dispute.

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“The Secretary-General strongly supports the use of solely peaceful means to settle international disputes,” Guterres’ spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, said, confirming that the U.N. leader had spoken to Guyana’s president, Irfaan Ali, the previous evening over the latest escalation.

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In Washington, concerns mounted that Venezuelan military action against Guyana could provide Maduro with an excuse to impose martial law in his troubled South American nation of 28 million, setting favorable conditions for himself in a sham presidential election next year, officials and experts said.

In October, the Biden administration announced an easing of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector as part of an elections deal between Maduro and the opposition. Washington said it would lift the sanctions if by Nov. 30 Maduro began the release of American hostages “wrongfully detained” by his government, and if he were to lift a ban that keeps opponents who want to run for president from serving in office. So far, Maduro has failed to comply with the deadline, with Maria Corina Machado, the winner of the opposition’s presidential primary, still barred from office.

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“He wants to be able to consolidate power in a way in which he can be assured of a ‘sound victory’ when the elections are held next year,” said Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, a Guyana-born expert on security in the region.  Griffith said Maduro’s reactivation of the Venezuelan claim to the Essequibo territory in Guyana is also about trying to seize the oil discovered there in recent years.

On Tuesday, Maduro announced the creation of a military zone to be carved out of the Essequibo region, which accounts for three quarters of Guyana’s current land mass. The area was the subject of an 1899 decision by international arbiters that placed it under the control of what was then called British Guiana. Venezuela’s new military zone is among seven measures Maduro claims he’s been authorized to pursue following a Sunday referendum in which voters overwhelmingly supported his takeover of the dense jungle region that’s about the size of the state of Florida.

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In addition to the measures, Maduro also ordered state-owned companies to grant licenses for the exploration and exploitation of oil, gas and mines in the territory.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday that President Joe Biden is aware of and monitoring the developments. “It’s concerning. We’re watching this very, very closely,” John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council in the White House, told reporters in a press briefing on Wednesday. “The [1899] decision needs to be respected. We obviously don’t want to see any violence occur here, or conflict occur, and we’re obviously in touch with all of our partners.”

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Griffith, the security expert, said Maduro is “pushing the envelope on what I call the psychological warfare against Guyana that he’s engaging in, the military maneuver, the creation of a base, the seven measures he announced.”

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The implications, he said, could also affect Brazil, which shares a border with both countries, and other nations in South America including Colombia, which has a border with Venezuela. Several of the nations in the region have decades-long claims about their own borders.

“If you have an opening of that Pandora’s box, there are a lot of countries that will rumble about their border. They’ll presume, ‘Can we revisit, can we revisit?’ he said. “The extent to which small and powerful friends of Guyana, people who are concerned about the respect for international law, people who are interested in peace and not instability, are able to signal directly and indirectly to Maduro that he has a certain line that he cannot cross, that will influence how far he’s willing to push the envelope,” Griffith said.

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Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor at the School of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo, thinks there are few political actors capable of restraining Venezuela, and said the crisis has become “potentially a headache for the Biden administration” and for South American leaders.

“It is quite humiliating for Brazil,” which wants to be a regional leader in helping to resolve conflicts, he added, because instead of turning to Brazil for help, Guyana’s president sought out the U.S. “Guyana has already reached out to the United States in part because it doesn’t believe Latin American governments are capable or willing to condemn Venezuela more forcefully or as a last resort, to actually defend Guyana,” Stuenkel said.

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The crisis is a reflection of the limitations of Brazil’s influence in the region, he added, because “this is the kind of thing where a regional leader would step up and make sure this doesn’t continue.” Stunkel said he believes Maduro’s plan isn’t to actually invade “but to produce a sense of crisis, mobilize the population for as long as possible because he needs to divert attention from the economic” crisis in Venezuela.

“He now has a supposed mandate,” he said, noting that Maduro has even published a new map of Venezuela that includes a new state of Essequibo. “I continue to believe an actual conflict is unlikely, but it’s already had a lot of effects.”

 

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Perun has a great take on it, talking about the international players, how Venezuela would have issues (their armed forces are not big, and corruption and readiness issues abound), how Venezuela doesn’t have the naval forces to actually take the oil fields themselves.

And discussion of the players in the oil fields (US, China, etc.) who would not be keen on Venezuela fucking around.

 

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The military controls the cities and plays army. The navy is a coast guard. They have been taught by the russians and cubans their doctrine. So basically steal from the troops and nation, make yourself as much as you can, and don't get thrown in jail.

If they move into Guyana Brazil is the one to watch.

But, there are territorial issues all over South and Central America. Peru and Ecuador still argue. Look up the Cenepa War.

 

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On 12/8/2023 at 6:48 PM, Gatorubet said:

Tell me you’ve never been to Cheyenne without telling me you’ve never been to Cheyenne.

Tell me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation without telling me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation...   

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15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Tell me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation without telling me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation...   

I don’t remember. I don’t recall. I don’t remember anything at all.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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