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2019 Rain Thread


Biff Tannen

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2 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Per KHOU weather board

“Getting reports of first responders in Franklin having difficult time getting to the area. Early reports of building collapses, injuries, down power lines, debris and trees down.”

I thought KHOU pulled the plug on those forums last year?  Got a link, I can't find them on Google.

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Mid day Saturday Update from Jeff (Lindner):

Tornado Watch issued for areas along and N of HWY 105.

Supercells with large violent tornadoes in progress from N of Collage Station to near I-45 N of Centerville. The City of Franklin TX has taken a direct hit from a large tornado with extensive damage and injuries being reported.

Warm front is drapped along a line from north of College Station toward Lake Livingston and supercells along this boundary are producing tornadoes. Air mass and shear parameters in the Tornado Watch area are favorable for long tracked and highly destructive tornadoes.

South of the tornado watch area across the reminder of SE TX, a line of strong thunderstorms will approach from the west this afternoon. It remains to be seen if this line will hold together or weaken as it moves into SE TX. Thus far showers S of I-10 have struggled to develop with some capping still in place.
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Those radar models are unreal.

 

News is saying only F3 and 2 children killed in a car. Seems like that was a bigger tornado than that and lucky it went through some bfe instead of a more heavily populated area. 

Edited by NorthLoop
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The official report says injuries only. I have yet to see any mention of anyone being killed, which would be amazing given that the winds were 140 mph. I would also imagine a lot of the “homes” destroyed were of the mobile variety which would make it even more amazing there were no deaths.

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29 minutes ago, Hate said:

The official report says injuries only. I have yet to see any mention of anyone being killed, which would be amazing given that the winds were 140 mph. I would also imagine a lot of the “homes” destroyed were of the mobile variety which would make it even more amazing there were no deaths.

Two kids were killed north of Houston.  They were riding in a car when a tree or tree limb fell on the vehicle and crushed the back end.  I don't know if it was related to the same storm system or not.

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I just saw that. It was 3 people including 2 young kids. It wasn’t part of the same storm, but it was part of the same system. Very sad news. It’s always something I am wary of living in SE Texas with all of the pine trees.

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Friend who works at the historical commission just post this:

Quote

This is the news our historic sites team is grappling with today: a tornado struck Caddo Mounds State Historic Site yesterday during their annual Caddoan Culture day festival. No deaths reported so far but many in critical condition. The museum, and grass house that was so thoughtfully and carefully built by hand by members of the Caddo Nation and volunteers, are gone. They will need our support, and I’ll continue to keep you posted on how to do that once I know more.

 

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Yeah, I was shocked that it snapped like that. It was windy last night, but I didn’t think it was that windy. My son’s friends saw it this morning and told us about it. I was completely stunned. It was almost 3 years to the day that its predecessor also snapped in half.

ee63d09ca4db5690418c8c022cf03f98.jpg

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'Nother round of potentially severe weather coming through overnight Wednesday. However biggest threat is again N/NE of ATX, although as we've seen stuff can filter into our area.

My guess (again) is that ATX won't see much of it, but same general area to NE and some more into E/SE Texas could.  Sometimes it seems like when we get plenty of warning (unlike the E. Texas tornadoes - watches were in effect just before the Franklin one formed, but no doubt it caught forecasters by surprise) of severe weather, it often fizzles out; when we don't, it goes way worse than expected.  Hopefully this will be a fizzle.  Again, Austin proper isn't really in the heart of the area but the prediction is "enhanced"... all the shit in the 79 corridor was under a "slight" category.  I don't particularly like those categories, but whatevers.

The tornado that took out Franklin was an EF-3, unusually powerful for that area of Texas. 

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Most of the time I just use KXAN's (or KVUE's, almost all of these dopplers have become identical the past few years) Interactive Radar.  I like it because 1) I can easily zoom in and out and/or drag the locales just like using a map app, and 2) you can actually drag it to anywhere at least in the U.S. and zoom in on that as well.  That comes in really handy for me.  I also like it because it's easy to start/stop (animate) and you don't have to fill in a bunch of shit to get some sort of desired result.

Not as easy to mess with on the phone, but it can be done, I really don't use phone apps for radar anyway, too tough to mess with... I'm sure there are great ones out there but just not familiar with them.  I kind of like Weather Underground's doppler because you can do a lot of shit with it.  GRlevelx is pretty good but not if you're mobile, but lots of geeky shit there to see.  But for basic radar I just use the news sites'.  Works for what I need (but I'm also reading into what I see a bit more than the avg. joe).

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I'd say it's fluid.

Discrete cells earlier along I35 around 4p (?) and then another round around 8 (?) when the dryline arrives.

A supercellular storm mode will be favored with initial cells in
either of these areas. Large (potentially significant) hail will
be possible with initial discrete cells, as this environment
checks nearly all the boxes for a large hail event. Ample shear
will allow for robust updrafts to occur, with high CAPE and shear
concentrated within the hail growth zone between -10C to -30C. A
forecast wet-bulb zero height around 9500 ft AGL is also a
favorable indicator for large hail, along with the nearly dry
adiabatic lapse rates present through the mid levels. Most model
soundings indicate a SHIP parameter of 2.5-3.0, and SARS analogs
indicate many past events with hail in excess of baseball size
with similar environmental conditions. It appears the only factor
working against a potentially significant hail event is the
possibility of rapid upscale growth into a linear storm mode.
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6 minutes ago, LonghornJones said:

I'd say it's fluid.

Discrete cells earlier along I35 around 4p (?) and then another round around 8 (?) when the dryline arrives.


A supercellular storm mode will be favored with initial cells in
either of these areas. Large (potentially significant) hail will
be possible with initial discrete cells, as this environment
checks nearly all the boxes for a large hail event. Ample shear
will allow for robust updrafts to occur, with high CAPE and shear
concentrated within the hail growth zone between -10C to -30C. A
forecast wet-bulb zero height around 9500 ft AGL is also a
favorable indicator for large hail, along with the nearly dry
adiabatic lapse rates present through the mid levels. Most model
soundings indicate a SHIP parameter of 2.5-3.0, and SARS analogs
indicate many past events with hail in excess of baseball size
with similar environmental conditions. It appears the only factor
working against a potentially significant hail event is the
possibility of rapid upscale growth into a linear storm mode.

That's encouraging....🙄

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