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Boeing 767 Crash in Anhuac


CHEF DIESEL

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non-pilot here, but if their airspeed is 430 knots, wouldn't they just need to point the front of the plane to the horizon to maintain altitude?  Unless they were unable to do so, or another indicator was telling them that they were about to stall?

I realize the NTSB report is saying that the stick shaker was not indicating a stall but it seems to be common problem when pilots receive, or think they're receiving, conflicting info. Then they have to make a decision on what indicator to trust.

Hopefully the CVR data is fully recoverable.

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 I don’t think they were nose down that steep on purpose. Not to recover from a stall, not for suicide, not for any purposeful reason. That’s just my guess.   Something else was causing the nose to point down and my guess is that they were fighting that all the way to the water trying to pull it up. Flight control malfunction, onboard fire or bomb, shifting cargo, or something else. 

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About 12:38, the controller informed the pilots that they would be past the area of weather in about 18 miles, that they could expect a turn to the north for a base leg to the approach to runway 26L, and that weather was clear west of the precipitation area. The pilots responded, “sounds good” and “ok.” At this time, radar and ADS-B returns indicated the airplane levelled briefly at 6,200 ft and then began a slight climb to 6,300 ft.

Also, about this time, the FDR data indicated that some small vertical accelerations consistent with the airplane entering turbulence. Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up. The airplane then pitched nose down over the next 18 seconds to about 49° in response to nose-down elevator deflection. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate.

FDR, radar, and ADS-B data indicated that the airplane entered a rapid descent on a heading of 270°, reaching an airspeed of about 430 knots. A security camera video (figure 4) captured the airplane in a steep, generally wings-level attitude until impact with the swamp. FDR data indicated that the airplane gradually pitched up to about 20 degrees nose down during the descent.

Can the data show whether this nose-down was initiated by the pilot, or that a mechanical failure didn't allow it to be counter-acted after the pilot started a descent? 

Tin-foil hate time but can cargo planes have the ability to be remote controlled in emergency circumstances? I know this was discussed as an option after 9/11 for commercial carriers but I think many felt it introduced other risks like hacking.

 

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I’m no pilot or fluid dynamics expert but even if they did think there was a stall and thus went to full power it seems like it wouldn’t be necessary to pitch down that aggressively????

 

On the fire/bomb front. A fire could have been catastrophic but usually seems like in fire situations there is a good period of awareness and CVR discussion of the situation. As to a bomb well i guess but the video evidence out there doesn’t seem to show any massive deformities to the plane that would have been caused by a bomb.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Your Mom said:

Max thrust says the opposite. It’s hard to go down with power added. The engines are under the wing and they give you a nose-up force when you add power. If you’re goal were to hit the ground as quickly as possible flight idle would make it much easier and less likely to recover. Power added means they were trying to pull out of it.

5 hours ago, Your Mom said:

 I don’t think they were nose down that steep on purpose. Not to recover from a stall, not for suicide, not for any purposeful reason. That’s just my guess.   Something else was causing the nose to point down and my guess is that they were fighting that all the way to the water trying to pull it up. Flight control malfunction, onboard fire or bomb, shifting cargo, or something else. 

Any nose-up force can be counteracted with elevator, which is what they did, to the tune of 49 degrees downward.  Someone wanting to end it all wouldn't stop to consider that max power might bring up the nose a little...they would just think about getting it over as soon as possible.  Flight control malfunction (like AS261) is possible, but less likely a scenario, since they added max power.  Onboard fire or bomb possible, but no communication to ATC that they had a fire warning, and no outward evidence of either in the video.  Shifting cargo unlikely since they had normal pallets/containers and not large vehicles, etc.  Also, a massive shift would have most likely stalled the plane.

Edited by OU Sucks
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6 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

Any nose-up force can be counteracted with elevator, which is what they did, to the tune of 49 degrees downward.  Someone wanting to end it all wouldn't stop to consider that max power might bring up the nose a little...they would just think about getting it over as soon as possible.  Flight control malfunction (like AS261) is possible, but less likely a scenario, since they added max power.  Onboard fire or bomb possible, but no communication to ATC that they had a fire warning, and no outward evidence of either in the video.  Shifting cargo unlikely since they had normal pallets/containers and not large vehicles, etc.  Also, a massive shift would have most likely stalled the plane.

So best bet is a cargo plane full of rubber dog shit?

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Just a thought and maybe completely wrong as I’m not familiar with the 767, but perhaps the slight nose up was an elevator system failure following by extreme nose down, and a combination of nose up trim and full power from underslung engines causing and upward pitching moment helped bring the plane up from 49 degrees nose down to 20 by impact  

All half assed conjecture of course. 

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1 hour ago, OU Sucks said:

Any nose-up force can be counteracted with elevator, which is what they did, to the tune of 49 degrees downward.  Someone wanting to end it all wouldn't stop to consider that max power might bring up the nose a little...they would just think about getting it over as soon as possible.  Flight control malfunction (like AS261) is possible, but less likely a scenario, since they added max power.  Onboard fire or bomb possible, but no communication to ATC that they had a fire warning, and no outward evidence of either in the video.  Shifting cargo unlikely since they had normal pallets/containers and not large vehicles, etc.  Also, a massive shift would have most likely stalled the plane.

Forward shift wouldn’t stall it. And full power doesn’t just give you a little nose up, it gives a shitload of nose up and makes it really hard to push it down. But what do I know?  

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25 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

I gotta go with sudden failure of elevator, elevator controls, or horizontal stabilizer.

Although I'm interested in the sequence of events...were the engines pushed to full power before the nose pitched down? Because that'd be weird.

 

Yes, the NTSB said full power, slight pitch up, then major pitch down:

Quote

Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230kt (426km/h), the engines increased to maximum thrust and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up. The airplane then pitched nose down over the next 18sec to about 49° in response to nose-down elevator deflection

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  • 3 weeks later...

I don’t think so. They’ve heard them, just not released them yet. 

I’ve heard rumors that in the decent the FO called for flaps and the CA accidentally hit the TOGA button. That’s Take Off / Go Around. It pitches the nose up 10 degrees. Then the FO overcorrected by pushing the nose back down too steep and the captain was pulling back to avoid that overcorrection. One pushing and the other pulling. What I read is that the opposing forces sheared a pin or something and they lost elevator authority. 

I know next to nothing about 767 flight control systems. So that may or not make sense. It’s pure speculation from a guy who heard from a guy who heard from a guy who read on a board from a guy.... yada yada yada. 

When I heard that I went online to check official sources and found nothing. So who knows. 

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36 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

I don’t think so. They’ve heard them, just not released them yet. 

I’ve heard rumors that in the decent the FO called for flaps and the CA accidentally hit the TOGA button. That’s Take Off / Go Around. It pitches the nose up 10 degrees. Then the FO overcorrected by pushing the nose back down too steep and the captain was pulling back to avoid that overcorrection. One pushing and the other pulling. What I read is that the opposing forces sheared a pin or something and they lost elevator authority. 

 I know next to nothing about 767 flight control systems. So that may or not make sense. It’s pure speculation from a guy who heard from a guy who heard from a guy who read on a board from a guy.... yada yada yada. 

 When I heard that I went online to check official sources and found nothing. So who knows. 

1118full-spaceballs---------------------

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14 hours ago, Anastasis said:

1118full-spaceballs---------------------

Is that the actual self-destruct button, or is it the type of button you press that open up to reveal the actual button.  It's need more instruction to explain the process.

 

Seriously is it abnormal for the NTSB to not release more info on this crash? I know there is much less attention given it was a cargo plane, and the 737 Max issues are the focus of the media. The info released so far seems lacking. Seems like they just said what occurred not why or how.  And perhaps the pilots' words didn't offer much other than what they attempted.

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I'm no expert but I've been interested in aviation accidents for quite some time, and I don't recall the NTSB or other agencies to ever be concerned about releasing information quickly. It seemed to me that you often had to wait for the investigation & report to be finalized (which can take months or years) to get details like the CVR transcript or recording, or even a formal finding of the cause.

 

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Saw this on another non aviation website. Don’t know where it’s from. 

 

Quote:
Just FYI… we’ve heard the full cockpit audio and seen the data. Here’s what really happened (name redacted please to protect the innocent!):

During the approach, at about 6,000 FT (being flown by the first officer), the Captain reached around the throttle quadrant to extend the flaps to the next position after being called to do so by the first officer (pilot flying)… very normal. In many aircraft including the 767, that’s a very odd/difficult repositioning of your hand (from the left seat, all the way around to the right side of the center console), and requires intimate familiarity and slow/non-spazzy (technical term!)/deliberate motion to do successfully.
Well in any case, it was not done so this time. The captain accidentally hit the “go around” switch while bringing his hand around for the flaps, which brought both engines up to full power. In the landing configuration, as this aircraft was transitioning into, that obviously causes a vast increase in lift… and the first officer (pilot flying) used everything he had to force the nose back down. Still not sure why that occurred, as the crew should have just “gone around” then and tried it again when properly configured… but they did not. And that started in motion a chain of events that lead to tragedy.
As the First Officer over-rotated downward, again with the engines at full power, the aircraft quickly accelerated and approached something we’re all trained to handle (at least in good training environments)… an “upset recovery”, countered by NON-AUTOMATION and basic “stick and rudder skills”. This captain however, in turn, grabbed the controls without using positive command (“I’ve got”, “My aircraft”, or anything normally done), and countered the F/O’s control input by completely hauling his control column full aft… remember, while the F/O is pushing full forward.
In the process of doing that, he broke the “shear pin” on his control column (a device/mechanical safety interlock used to separate a control column from the “innards” of the control architecture in the event one control column is doing something it should not)… and that occurred here.
The captain, a few seconds later, now accelerating downward out of the control envelope of the 767 (remember, all of this started at 6000 FT and probably took less time to get to the fatal point than it did to read this far), recognizes the has no control column and then asks the F/O to pull up, get the nose up, or something to that affect. It isn’t 100% clear what he says.
The F/O then tries to pull aft on his column (going from full forward to full aft), but isn’t getting the response he needs, because the aircraft is out of the envelope of controllability and the controls are “air-loaded” in position.
At about 2000 FT, eventually the trim motors are able to start overcoming the air-load, and the aircraft begins to attempt to arrest its rate of descent… but alas it’s far too little, far too late, and the aircraft impacts about 30-40 degrees nose down, with what is believed to be about 4-5000 FT / minute rate of descent.
Oh by the way, the throttles aren’t touched until somewhere during that last few seconds of flight… which is believed to be what enabled the trim motors to start working. Unclear who does it, and no audio indicates who it was.
Just FYI… we’ve attempted in our 767 simulators to recover from the event with the exact same setup, and thus far we’ve only had success when starting at 8000’ or higher… meaning we are fully established in the “out of control” position at 8000’, recognize it by then, and initiate recovery starting at 8000’. These guys started the whole thing at 6000’ and were much lower when a true recovery attempt was initiated. No chance, and just shows you how quickly you can get “out of the envelope” when you don’t follow procedure, try some completely erroneous recovery technique, and don’t have a clue what you’re doing.

So many things went wrong with crew coordination, basic flying skills, aircraft envelope awareness, basic procedures, and such… that this will likely go down as one of the absolute worst “pilot error” events ever. It needs to have serious impact throughout the Amazon flying circus (and associated partnerships), and show people that Jeff Bezos’ attempt to push the envelope at lower cost, all things else be damned, doesn’t apply to aviation. This accident no doubt was absolutely horrible, and three people lost their lives…one of them (the jumpseater) through absolutely no fault of his own. But making an approach into Houston, TX, it could have been so much worse. In another few miles, they would have been over major population centers and who knows what would have happened then.

Know your aircraft. Know your procedures. And for God sakes, just FLY! It’s not a video game!
 
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6 minutes ago, Assman said:

That sounds like an 8th grader wrote it.  Please tell me the author isn't a professional pilot.

Why wouldn’t it be? Most pilots extended writing experience resides in shorthand MEL write ups. BTW, that sounds somewhat close to what I heard from an Atlas jumpseater. 

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My very vague understanding of the sheer pin was that it maintained dual control authority over the elevators in normal operation, but if one jammed you’d be able to exert enough force to break the pin and each sides yoke would then have authority over one side of the elevator only.

Is that right?

And man if the above is true that’s a horrible CRM failure right there. And per the MAX thread it just goes to show that an accident may have a singular starting event but there’s a dozen additional links that could have solved the problem without loss of life...just going around, reducing the throttle, positive handoff of controls, etc.

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  • 6 months later...
1 hour ago, Lat22 said:

Thanks for posting.  I check up on it from time to time.  I used to work with the Captain and this is one I really want to know details about. I've hated that one of the theories was that this was done on purpose.  This seems to clear that up. 

 I won't have time to read through it all until tomorrow but what jumps out at me is 19 seconds.  19 seconds from the first sign of trouble to the last words spoken at impact.  "Lord you have my soul."

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

Thanks for posting.  I check up on it from time to time.  I used to work with the Captain and this is one I really want to know details about. I've hated that one of the theories was that this was done on purpose.  This seems to clear that up. 

 I won't have time to read through it all until tomorrow but what jumps out at me is 19 seconds.  19 seconds from the first sign of trouble to the last words spoken at impact.  "Lord you have my soul."

 

 

I’m curious how this clears up the possibility of suicide/murder for you.  The short time involved and the comments at the end of the tape are suspicious to me.  Who says those type of things when they are suddenly scared shitless?  The other guys said what you’d expect.  Shit. What’s the going on.  Pull up.  

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4 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

 Who says those type of things when they are suddenly scared shitless?

A religious guy that realizes he's about to die?

I'm really interested what the rest of the box data shows. Did the auto system back the throttles too much? What was the AOA? Weather event?

All this shows was when things go bad at low alt, they come to a conclusion rapidly.

Edited by RPM
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12 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

I’m curious how this clears up the possibility of suicide/murder for you.  The short time involved and the comments at the end of the tape are suspicious to me.  Who says those type of things when they are suddenly scared shitless?  The other guys said what you’d expect.  Shit. What’s the going on.  Pull up.  

Fair question.  It's certainly not concrete evidence, but to me the whole exchange sounds more like the chaos expected when the airplane isn't doing what you thought it would than one guy trying to bring it down.  6000' isn't the the altitude you'd try anything like that if that were your goal.  Not intending to sound dark, but would be much easier and less chance of recovery if you did it much lower.  The idea of an accidental engagement of the go-around switch and the resulting loss of control sounds more likely to me.  And the microphone picked up some clicks, which could have been the go-around switch accidentally being hit.  Also the mention of a stall seems inconsistent with an effort to bring it down on purpose.  

 

Page 5, in the paragraph starting with the aircraft descending to 10,000' and the few paragraphs after it paints the picture.  

https://dms.ntsb.gov/public/63000-63499/63168/631198.pdf

Go around mode is armed when the flaps come out.  They had put the flaps to 1 just prior to all this, so it was armed.

One of them accidentally hits the go-around switch.

With autothrottles on the GA mode commands enough thrust to enter a 2000' per minute climb.

That thrust alone arrests the descent and the begins a climb.  

The FO sees that and responds by pushing the nose down to stop the climb, probably not realizing yet that the thrust is increasing.

The autothrottles know that 2000' fpm has not been achieved so it keeps adding more thrust until eventually at full power.

Any sort of unwanted pitch-up movement, caused in this case by the added thrust,  is going to put the threat of a stall at the forefront of your attention and one of them, probably the FO since he's flying, does mention it in the CVR.

FO is pushing down to avoid what he thinks is a stall,  CA starts pulling back to arrest the descent.  Shear pin breaks and they each only control half the elevator now and there's no enough elevator authority from either one to overcome the now 433 knots of airspeed moving across the elevator (not unsimilar to the final moments of the Lion Air MAX crash with full thrust).

At some point they got the power back to idle and were able to pitch back up from 50 degrees nose-down to 16 degrees nose-down.  So they were making progress at the end, but not enough.  Impact was at 16 degrees down.  That's a lot steeper than it sounds.  Normal flight rarely exceeds a couple of degrees nose down.  

That's all speculation but the FDR seems consistent with something like that happening and the CVR doesn't indicate much different.  It's worth noting that most of that CVR data is from the area mic, not the individual mics so you can't always be sure who is saying what.  

 

Edit to add:  I've read more than a few CVR transcripts of accidents over the years and the words at the end of this one aren't unusual.    

Edited by Your Mom
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I can buy that.  It's wild that two guys sitting right next to each other, who are both trying to rectify what they see as an undesirable situation, would be putting in opposite pitch inputs to the degree that they shear the pins.

Edited by ClubWhatever
Or at least one guy is trying to react the other's
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Years ago there was an airplane accident either in Argentina or Uruguay. I don’t remember the details. Big storm hits them, pitots ice up, they lose the airspeed, young pilot flying the plane freaks out and I think he deploys the slats. Because the plane was going too fast, the slats get ripped off or something like that. At that point the plane is doomed. Anyway, what I do remember was the last words from the captain because it was what I would expect in a situation like that. It went something like “Shit, we’re gonna die!!! We’re gonna fucking die!!! Fuck fuck fuck!!!”

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The FO had no business being in any cockpit. How many times can you get fired due to lack of progress in training and not self assess that this career isn't for you. The PRIA system doesn't work or Atlas is lying. Hope the other two victim's families get some Bezos money.

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7 hours ago, XYZ said:

Years ago there was an airplane accident either in Argentina or Uruguay. I don’t remember the details. Big storm hits them, pitots ice up, they lose the airspeed, young pilot flying the plane freaks out and I think he deploys the slats. Because the plane was going too fast, the slats get ripped off or something like that. At that point the plane is doomed. Anyway, what I do remember was the last words from the captain because it was what I would expect in a situation like that. It went something like “Shit, we’re gonna die!!! We’re gonna fucking die!!! Fuck fuck fuck!!!”

The CVR of a DC-10 crash In Mexico City in 79 is as blood curdling as you'll ever hear. Lined up on the wrong runway and landed on one under maintenance. 

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If memory serves, the Muslim pilot of the Egyptian air flight over the Atlantic started praying to allah as the plane was crashing and that was used as evidence he brought it down on purpose. I know there was additional evidence or assumptions but praying to any god seems like it could used to fit any narrative.

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On 12/21/2019 at 5:46 AM, DaysOff said:

The FO had no business being in any cockpit. How many times can you get fired due to lack of progress in training and not self assess that this career isn't for you. The PRIA system doesn't work or Atlas is lying. Hope the other two victim's families get some Bezos money.

I’ve been reading some “executive summaries” on what’s included in the docket. It’s unbelievable that Atlas hired that FO. Of course, he did lie on his resume. 

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Inexcusable. This can’t be an easy time for operators like Atlas to attract pilots with all the higher sought after jobs hiring like crazy the last few years. I knew guys that went there and similar places back when nobody else was hiring but now days that’s just not a place most good pilots want to be, or need to be.  But still, there should’ve been a line drawn somewhere on that.

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This is unreal.  It's unfathomable how he hid all those failures and got away with omitting 2 of those jobs on his resume to Atlas.  I was once turned down for a job because an unpaid speeding ticket from 12 years earlier had resulted in a warrant for my arrest in a town I hadn't traveled through in over a decade.  I had no idea it was even out there until the post-interview background check at an airline found it and they told me thanks but no thanks.  Meanwhile this guy at Atlas:

FO Training Records per NTSB:

CommutAir:
Employed 5/9/2011 - 6/27/2011
Failed to complete DHC-8 initial training
Submitted resignation letter for "lack of progress in training"

Air Wisconsin
Employed 4/20/2012 - 8/13/2012
Failed to complete CRJ initial training
Resigned for personal reasons

Trans States
Employed 3/8/2014 - 9/20/2014
Graded unsat on EMB-145 type rating oral 4/22/2014
Graded unsat on EMB-145 ATP checkride 5/11/2014
Graded unsat on EMB-145 line check 8/15/2014
Graded unsat on EMB-145 line check 9/8/2014

Mesa
Employed 2/5/2015 - 7/3/2017 (until hired by Atlas)
Attempted upgrade to captain on the EMB-175 May of 2017
Graded unsat after two sim sessions and returned to the line as an EMB-175 FO

Atlas
Excerpt from AVWEB:

"The NTSB documentation paints a picture of a copilot who struggled through his 767 training with Atlas Air. He required 4.5 hours of remedial training before being recommended for the oral examination, then was not recommended to continue to full-motion simulator training after five sessions in a non-motion sim. Another round of remedial training allowed the FO to move ahead in training. During his training in the full-motion simulator, his sim partner complained that he was being held back by the FO. About a month later, the first officer failed his practical B-767 type rating examination due to unsatisfactory performance in crew resource management (CRM), threat and error management (TEM), non-precision approaches, steep turns, and judgment. A few days later, he received more remedial training and passed his checkride."

 

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