Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Wiler77

Historical results data

Recommended Posts

Does anyone know a good site to get analysis on ATS, W/L, home/away, etc results for college basketball this season?

I'm specifically interested in finding straight-up W/L% for home teams favored by 8-10 points.

I found something that had straight-up win% based on what the spread was, but there was no way to further filter home vs away.

Curious if there is some master set of data available or you can pay for and analyze from various angles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know of any site that has exactly what you're looking for without writing some software.  However, home/away is already baked into the spread...so what you found is likely very close to the number that you want.  I don't know how many such games have existed this year, but over a big enough sample...8 point home favorites will win at the same rate as 8 point road favorites.  The link below is obviously aggregate data, notice in the ATS numbers below every split is within ~0.1% of being perfectly efficient.

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/trends/league/season.html

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

8 point home favorites will win at the same rate as 8 point road favorites.  

Intuitively that doesn't make sense to me.  Home favorites win at a higher rate than road favorites, although I guess home favorites likely have a higher average spread than road favorites.

With no home/away distinction, what I saw was 8 point favorites win 80% of the time, and 10 point favorites 88% of the time.  I assumed the home side of that was a bit higher.

Anyway, the reason I'm asking is because I'm trying a new strategy where I parlay 5-6 money lines in which I take only home favorites in the 8-10 point range.  Depending on the exact line, you get ~1.5 : 1 odds on that type of parlay.  My sample size is low, but so far it's paying off.  If there are any HUGE home favorites, I'll throw those on top just because, but the core part of the strategy is 5-6 home teams in the 8-10 point spread range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Wiler77 said:

Intuitively that doesn't make sense to me.  Home favorites win at a higher rate than road favorites, although I guess home favorites likely have a higher average spread than road favorites.

With no home/away distinction, what I saw was 8 point favorites win 80% of the time, and 10 point favorites 88% of the time.  I assumed the home side of that was a bit higher.

Home favorites win (outright) at a higher rate, because home teams tend to be bigger favorites...not because they're at home.  For best odds of winning, it's considerably more important to be the favorite than the home team.  Season to date, home teams win 67.5% of the time, favorites win 74.5% of the time, and home favorites win 77.1% of the time.  ATS those same numbers are 49.9%, 50%, and 50.1%.  Those ATS numbers demonstrate the efficiency of the betting market and assure us that venue is priced extremely accurately.

You could use vegasinsder.com and work backwards over time to find favorites in the 8-10 range to test your intuition on home/road splits, but I suspect you won't find any variance...just trusting the efficiency of the point spread.  I don't think your strategy is necessarily a bad one, five 85% favorites will all win 44% of the time...so 1.5:1 is positive EV, I just don't think it's venue based, because I don't think there is a glaring home/road inefficiency in the market.  That is intuitive to me, because step 1 in handicapping is "where is the game being played?".

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  



Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Recruiting ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Help ... For Sale ... Politics ... Board Discussion
×
×
  • Create New...