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Jimbo 2021: Meemaw's Got a Brand New Bag


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5 hours ago, Enchubben said:

3-7 possible?

10/3 - Alabama - Loss

10/10 - Florida - Loss

10/17 - Miss St - Loss

BYE

10/31 - Arkansas - Win

11/7 - South Carolina - Win

11/14 - Tennessee - Loss

11/21 - Ole Miss - Toss up

11/28 - LSU - Loss

12/5 - Auburn - Loss

5-5 or 6-4 are most likely scenarios IMO. The SEC isn't good. Miss At showing up against a completely depleted LSU team in week 1 doesn't mean they're good. Same with Ole Miss. And will LSU be any good at the end of the year?  Who knows. Aggy has some talent and they aren't as bad as they showed yesterday. Also, they are a perennial .600 program. It's who they are 

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1 hour ago, Wiler77 said:

5-5 or 6-4 are most likely scenarios IMO. The SEC isn't good. Miss At showing up against a completely depleted LSU team in week 1 doesn't mean they're good. Same with Ole Miss. And will LSU be any good at the end of the year?  Who knows. Aggy has some talent and they aren't as bad as they showed yesterday. Also, they are a perennial .600 program. It's who they are 

They're a steaming pile of dogshit. Their own fans are starting to recognize it 

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1 hour ago, Wiler77 said:

5-5 or 6-4 are most likely scenarios IMO. The SEC isn't good. Miss At showing up against a completely depleted LSU team in week 1 doesn't mean they're good. Same with Ole Miss. And will LSU be any good at the end of the year?  Who knows. Aggy has some talent and they aren't as bad as they showed yesterday. Also, they are a perennial .600 program. It's who they are 

5-5 is my bet.  They are a .530 team in three conferences over 100 years.

They don’t have non-conference to inflate them to .600 this year.  That’s just going with the percentage play.  They looked worse vs Vandy, but ymmv.

 

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7 hours ago, Enchubben said:

3-7 possible?

10/3 - Alabama - Loss

10/10 - Florida - Loss

10/17 - Miss St - Loss

BYE

10/31 - Arkansas - Win

11/7 - South Carolina - Win

11/14 - Tennessee - Loss

11/21 - Ole Miss - Toss up

11/28 - LSU - Loss

12/5 - Auburn - Loss

1-3 will happen. Leach goes in dry with a good QB and probably the best WRs to ever play for him. 

Tennessee appears to have a decent offense finally. They bought enough blue chips to be good on defense. 

I could Joey Freshwater somehow screws up late and inexplicably loses to Aggy late. 

They have South Carolina, and Arkansas' numbers

Brennan is terrible, but LSU should have jet sweep/dink and dunk gimmick BS offense figured out by then. 

If Auburn beats Bama, they will lose to Aggy. Because they're Auburn. 

I'd say wins against Arkansas, South Carolina, and Ole Miss. Auburn is a toss up. LSU is probably a loss. Definite losses to Tennessee, Florida, and Bama. .500 sounds about right. 

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13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Meh I still think they pull out 6 or 7 wins. But I will be a pig in shit if there is a Jimbo collapse

7 wins will be the greatest coaching ever. Jimbo ain't got that in him. Getting paid to do nothing. 

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Spoiler

The Aggies won a conference game and their long-awaited season-opener last night, and that, regardless of the opponent, is something to feel good about.

So what is it about this particular win that made it feel like three straight losses?

As most of you have been doing with your friends and family, on TexAgs and social media since roughly the end of last night’s first quarter, let’s dive into that.

Before we do, however, I think it’s important we tackle the side of this thing that no Aggie (and I mean damn near no one, based on everything I’ve read and heard) wants to discuss.

I opened up with a pretty dramatic statement, partly for effect, but also because it rings very true.

If the Aggies don’t play significantly better football than they did en route to a very lackluster, sloppy and uninspiring 17-12 win over Vanderbilt, they will lose their next three games. Then, barring a 6-0 sprint to the finish, season three of the Jimbo Fisher-era will mark a damaging step backward.

Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Jimbo Fisher and his staff are facing a gauntlet of three straight dangerous SEC opponents after an uninspiring opener.

None of that is false, but there’s also a dangerous amount of speculation in attempting to glean so much from one Saturday of SEC football. That’s especially so on the most unique and unprecedented season-opening weekend in college football history.

For example, we’ve now seen the Big 12 for a couple of weeks. Texas Tech was a two-point conversion better than Houston Baptist (not Houston, but Houston Baptist!) while giving up 600-plus yards to the Huskies. On the same day, Kansas State was walloped at home by an Arkansas State team missing seven players due to COVID-19. This Saturday, KSU strolled into Norman and knocked off the No. 3 Sooners despite a COVID-ravaged secondary of their own, and it took a historic (and quite spectacular) Red Raider meltdown for Tech to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in Lubbock against No. 8 Texas.

In the SEC, I know what I think I know, but calling Mississippi State an SEC title contender and K.J. Costello a Heisman contender after the Bulldogs stunned LSU sounds a lot like what the good folks on the SEC Network and around the country were saying about Kenny Hill and the Aggies after an unforgettable performance to open the 2014 season. As it turned out, South Carolina was anything but a legitimate top-10 team. Steve Spurrier resigned later that season, and the Aggies (who finished a pedestrian 7-5) turned into a pumpkin when the clock struck midnight in — you guessed it — Starkville.

LSU didn’t look very good. Neither did Tennessee or South Carolina, as the two future Aggie opponents met to kick things off. Did Ole Miss’ offense look great against Florida or is the Gator defense suspect? Is Kyle Trask a Heisman contender (I have a hard time betting against that dude, to be honest)? Is Dan Mullen’s offense once again elite or are Lane Kiffin’s Rebels going to be a season-long sieve on D?

These are the questions we do not have the answers to. Heck, we don’t even know if Vandy is the worst team in the SEC or not. Like most, I suspect that they are, but Arkansas, Missouri or even Kentucky and South Carolina could factor into the discussion.

Had the Ags not self-destructed (three turnovers plus a fumbled fourth-down try that would have otherwise gone for six and a ridiculous safety surrendered on a punt return), last night’s game probably looks a whole hell of a lot like Georgia pulling away from Arkansas after trailing 7-5 at the half. Then how are we all feeling today?

We’ve also done this enough to know that, even in a typical season, how a team looks in its season-opener is a pretty naive way to attempt to predict future success or failure.

The answer? Only slightly different. DEFCON 2 instead of DEFCON 1, perhaps?

Look, we’ve all been doing this too long to overlook entirely the fact that there was a pretty damn good chance that (like a lot of teams around the country) the Aggies could look pretty disjointed in the season-opener. We’ve also done this enough to know that, even in a typical season, how a team looks in its season-opener is a pretty naive way to attempt to predict future success or failure.

I can remember too many times that I’ve chalked up wins. I watched Alabama open up at Jerryworld and, after watching them whitewash Michigan, walked out of there thinking, “This SEC is no joke...the Aggies and their freshman quarterback are going to have zero chance in Tuscaloosa.” Like everyone else around the country, I also remember thinking the Ags were a bonafide playoff contender post-South Carolina in ’14 and felt pretty damn good about A&M’s chances to win ten games after they walloped Arizona State a year later in Houston.

When it comes to college football ’snap judgments’ in 2020, a lot of folks are going to be embarrassingly wrong this fall. But here’s the reality as it pertains to the Aggies and last night’s flirtation with absolute disaster: Is it really a snap judgment if we’re talking about a lot of the same issues that held this team back throughout last season and even at times during Jimbo’s otherwise very encouraging first year in College Station?

The answer is no.

To characterize A&M needing a pair of big defensive stops in the fourth quarter to escape an upset of cataclysmic proportion as “concerning” would be putting it mildly.

It’s almost entirely because the things that kept the Aggies from pulling away from a significantly inferior team looked all too familiar. The Aggies looked bad in Game One, which wouldn’t be nearly as big an issue had the schedule lined up Abilene Christian, Colorado, North Texas and Arkansas to open up the season.

The all-SEC slate changed all of that. Instead, the next three weeks include No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Florida and No. 16 (with a bullet) Mississippi State. We’re talking about a pair of national title contenders, the two teams most likely to match up in Atlanta in mid-December and three offenses capable of putting up a lot of points every Saturday.

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The Kyle Trask-led Gators are one of three potent offenses the Aggies will face over the next three weeks.

The combination of the Ags not looking at all prepared for the upcoming challenge (against Vandy, no less) and the fact that A&M looked about as similar as the 2019 edition as the current schedule does is why the general tone from the 12th Man last night and into today has been one of real alarm.

Here’s hoping Fisher, the A&M coaches and the guys inside the Aggie locker room aren’t as calm and poised as they appeared last night’s post-game presser.

What the Aggies need right now in the worst way is a Sean Porter-esque demolishing of the locker room following the season-opening, field goal loss to Florida to open up the magical 2012 campaign. The reason Porter — a senior leader — lost it and was so upset was because the Aggies lost to the Gators the same way they dropped most of their games in the Big 12 the year prior, via a blown halftime lead.

Enough was enough, and the rest was history. I’m not saying a single-player erupting is the answer, and it’s certainly not as common that you’re going to get that following a win. Still, collectively, Fisher, his coaches and the A&M players have to say, “Enough is enough.” In other words, “This isn’t good enough.” As Olin wrote, sugarcoat it all you want to the media, but inside the walls of the Bright Complex, this needs to be a pretty intense and uncomfortable week.

It’s evident that the Aggies’ biggest issues lie on offense. Look, Vandy is a much better defensive team than they are on offense. After all, the ‘Dores have typically been very solid on that side of the ball under Derek Mason. They returned nine starters from last season and have a proven DC in newly-hired Ted Roof. However, we’re not talking about one game with an otherwise inferior opponent throwing unexpected looks at you.

The Ags’ issues on offense date back to last fall. Sure, it was easy to chalk up a brutal day at the office (zero rushing yards and just 3 points through three quarters) in Athens to Georgia’s stout defensive front. LSU was an absolute buzzsaw down the stretch, stifling OU and Georgia in the two games after holding the Ags to a single touchdown. The Aggies have played two games since then, managing a combined 41 points against Oklahoma State and Vanderbilt — not to be confused with the Dawgs or Bayou Bengals (or Bama or Florida, for that matter). Entering a new season, it was fair to expect more, to walk out of the season-opener a little more hopeful and a little less hopeless.

Craig Bisacre/Texas A&M Athletics

Running backs Isaiah Spiller and Ainias Smith pulled their weight in the opener.

After all, Fisher and the Aggies returned a senior quarterback entering year three in the system and started four seniors (all returning starters) up front. Sure, there was a lot of inexperience at wide receiver, but Dameyune Craig had a ton of options to work with, plus a couple of explosive new additions in Demond Demas and Devon Achane. Throw in a legit All-SEC weapon at tight end and two talented running backs (Isaiah Spiller and Ainias Smith did produce nearly 200 yards of offense last night as the lone offensive bright spots), and you had plenty of reasons for optimism.

Instead, we saw the same slow pace, one that seemed to play right into Vandy’s ‘shorten the game’ plan, and lack of offensive firepower. For the fourth game in a row, A&M’s passing attack struck no fear into an opponent, with the ‘Dores routinely playing with ten men within 8-10 yards of the line of scrimmage, practically daring Kellen Mond to, first, get enough protection and, then, connect on a downfield shot. The Ags couldn't take advantage and, just like in last year's bowl game, were able to wear down a physically overmatched opponent in the second half and pop some long runs.

Considering the teams on the 2020 schedule, many of which have recently dramatically changed the way they play offense and/or gotten more out of the quarterback position, there’s no way around the fact that the Aggies are going to have to figure out a way to score points and do so in a hurry. Alabama, Florida (the Gators put up a fifty burger in Oxford), The Pirate, LSU, Auburn (the Tigers looked more potent with Chad Morris calling the offensive shots) and even Ole Miss look quite capable on the offensive end.

Watching the Ags muddle through four sloppy quarters last night, it felt similar to what OU is dealing with on defense...more of the same.

The Aggies are balanced, and there is no problem with winning SEC games behind a powerful ground game, ball control, some big plays and great defense. Heck, it worked pretty well throughout Fisher’s first year in Aggieland, when A&M was a terrible finish at Auburn away from a 10-win season. Jimbo won a hell of a lot of games in Tallahassee employing that same strategy. It eventually all came together, and the ‘Noles put one of college football’s most unstoppable offenses on the field in 2013 and most of ’14, winning nearly 30 straight games and a natty.

The problem the Ags face today is, even though we’re all of four quarters into the season, they’re running out of time.

The problem the Ags face today is, even though we’re all of four quarters into the season, they’re running out of time.

Fisher knows a backslide this fall won’t bode well for program momentum, and now a senior, Mond has no excuse not to play better football. On Saturday night, the embattled quarterback lost two fumbles and coughed it up a third time on fourth down. The Aggies recovered, but instead of a game-icing touchdown run by the quarterback, Vandy took over on downs with a chance to win the game. Kellen also missed back-to-back TD passes to Ainias Smith early in the fourth, when either throw could have put the game on ice.

In his last three games, Kellen has completed barely 50 percent of his passes, averaging just 125 yards per game through the air, and has accounted for three total touchdowns against seven turnovers. As the most experienced member of the A&M offense and playing in a Fisher system that has produced four first-round draft picks, that’s simply not getting it done.

Do I think the senior needs to be replaced and the Ags start fresh? No. I know that’s not popular sentiment right now, but I don’t think throwing Zach Calzada or true freshman Haynes King out there with Bama, Florida and State on deck is the way to go by any stretch of the imagination. However, I think that Kellen has to elevate his game to the expected level, or what happens after October will feel like it’s much more about the future than it is the present.

Another unpopular commentary on Mond is that he was coming off the best fall camp of his career. That upsets some to the point that they feel the need to make disgusting, cowardly comments aimed at yours truly anonymously and earn the subsequent lifelong ban from TexAgs, but by all accounts (from Fisher on down), that was absolutely the case. The problem is that #11 will have to prove he can get it done on Saturday at the same level because this offense can only go as far as Mond takes it this year. That’s true whether it’s as a passer or runner.

The preference is as a passer, but Kellen has sure seemed like a more dangerous running threat the past two times the Ags have taken the field. Heading into this season, Costello left Stanford as a grad transfer, and Kyle Trask joined Mond in the preseason All-SEC quarterback conversation. Both exited week one as darkhorse Heisman candidates after leading their team to SEC road wins. Kellen has to play at a much higher level, and the concern is that we saw so many of the same mistakes last night that held him back as a junior.

Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Kellen Mond fumbled three times in the opener, a problem he must solve quickly.

The same can be said about the offensive line and some other perplexing elements of the offense, as well. There were undoubtedly times when Mond had a very clean pocket and time to throw against Vandy. However, Mond’s first fumble resulted from backside pressure, and the Aggie blockers were anything but dominant against one of the worst defenses they’ll face this fall.

The group of young receivers produced a few nice grabs and a couple of clutch plays (Caleb Chapman’s first career touchdown and chain-moving snags by Kam Brown and Jalen Preston). Still, drops were again a frustration, and a potential game-changer was once again conspicuously absent from the gameplan.

Last year, fans wondered throughout the season why Ainias Smith didn’t see more action after starring in the Arkansas win. Last night, folks were left scratching their heads as to why true freshman sensation Demond Demas didn’t get so much as a snap despite the fact that the Aggies managed just two touchdowns. I get the fact that it was his first game and that Demas is nowhere close to being a reliable and trusted ‘every-down’ guy, but he’s got playmaking DNA. There hasn’t been nearly enough of that in Maroon & White since Trayveon Williams and Jace Sternberger left for the NFL. If not Saturday night, what changes for Demas that will make him ready for Bama, Florida or the Cowbells in Starkville? The Ags need playmakers and maybe a new face up front just to see if a slight shakeup results in a better product.

I know it didn’t seem like it last night, but if the Ags don’t turn the ball over three times and give up a fourth possession on the botched punt return, they pull away and win pretty comfortably, perhaps even generating some offensive rhythm along the way. No, it wouldn’t have been pretty, but the gap between where the Ags are and where they need to go might feel a hell of a lot less like the Grand Canyon. Again, if the Ags’ “rebound” (I feel dirty saying that after a win, but there’s no denying the fact that the ‘teams make their biggest improvement from week one to week two’ cliche has to ring true for TAMU), they’re going to win games this fall on the strength of their ground game, big plays from guys like Smith, whichever receivers emerge and Wydermyer in the passing game, protecting the football and defense.

Craig Bisacre/Texas A&M Athletics

Mike Elko’s Aggie defense played inspired ball down the stretch to seal the Texas A&M victory.

On Saturday night, the Ags didn’t check many of those boxes, but the defense certainly showed signs of being a pretty salty unit. Look, Mike Elko’s unit lined up against a patchwork offensive line and a true freshman quarterback, so tempering expectations would be wise. However, Vandy played things perfectly in terms of being very conservative and patient. The Aggies helped make things exponentially easier by never making the ‘Dores play catch-up on the scoreboard and gifting them extra possessions. Nevertheless, the A&M defensive line dominated and frequently reset the line of scrimmage (10 tackles for loss on 65 snaps), forced a pair of turnovers inside the 20-yard line and came up with a couple of game-saving fourth-quarter stops.

Vandy managed just a TD and a field goal (and the score required a perfect strike to the corner of the end zone) on 11 possessions and generated just 3.8 yards per play. The defense gave up too many third-down conversions (seven on 17 attempts) and hurt their get-off-the-field cause too often, but there was a lot to like as far as A&M’s defensive debut is concerned. Demani Richardson, DeMarvin Leal, Buddy Johnson and a pair of veterans hungry for a breakout — Leon O’Neal and Micheal Clemons (like Ainias, they were fall camp standouts who did bring their A-game to Kyle Field on Saturday) — all looked good. As a whole, the unit looked noticeably faster, and Elko’s troops played with supreme confidence in the fourth quarter when a single breakdown would likely have cost the Ags the game.

Thank goodness for a few key stops and first downs with the game on the line, or this column would read much differently today. Even on D, the Aggies will need to play much better, cleaner and more focused football, and the margin for error on offense appears frustratingly thin. If what we have to go on is the way the Ags played against Vanderbilt or what Fisher reiterated following the narrow season-opening win (that Mond and the Aggie offense operated much more efficiently throughout fall camp), my advice would be to hope the head coach is right, because whatever revised preseason A&M had to get ready for the 2020 gauntlet is officially over.

 

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5 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

1-3 will happen. Leach goes in dry with a good QB and probably the best WRs to ever play for him. 

Tennessee appears to have a decent offense finally. They bought enough blue chips to be good on defense. 

I could Joey Freshwater somehow screws up late and inexplicably loses to Aggy late. 

They have South Carolina, and Arkansas' numbers

Brennan is terrible, but LSU should have jet sweep/dink and dunk gimmick BS offense figured out by then. 

If Auburn beats Bama, they will lose to Aggy. Because they're Auburn. 

I'd say wins against Arkansas, South Carolina, and Ole Miss. Auburn is a toss up. LSU is probably a loss. Definite losses to Tennessee, Florida, and Bama. .500 sounds about right. 

You must have watched a different FLA-Ole Miss game than I did, because Gator D > aggy D, and Rebel receivers ran wild and free through their secondary.   Ole Miss puts up 45+ on aggy.  Aggy can't score 45 on ANYONE.

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2 hours ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Look, we’ve all been doing this too long to overlook entirely the fact that there was a pretty damn good chance that (like a lot of teams around the country) the Aggies could look pretty disjointed in the season-opener.

BEST.  FALL.  CAMP.  EVAR.

WATCH.  THE.  TAPE.

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6 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

1-3 will happen. Leach goes in dry with a good QB and probably the best WRs to ever play for him. 

Tennessee appears to have a decent offense finally. They bought enough blue chips to be good on defense. 

I could Joey Freshwater somehow screws up late and inexplicably loses to Aggy late. 

They have South Carolina, and Arkansas' numbers

Brennan is terrible, but LSU should have jet sweep/dink and dunk gimmick BS offense figured out by then. 

If Auburn beats Bama, they will lose to Aggy. Because they're Auburn. 

I'd say wins against Arkansas, South Carolina, and Ole Miss. Auburn is a toss up. LSU is probably a loss. Definite losses to Tennessee, Florida, and Bama. .500 sounds about right. 

Wat

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10 hours ago, SimkinsMan said:

The only solace I take from that thread is that most of the mouth-breathers still blame Mond and not Jimbo.

Their criticism is rarely more complex than blame/praise the QB and blather about the emotional level of the team. They lose because they weren't fired up. You add the coach to their list after three disappointing years where they praised him as a real badass.

I expect that this team is fragile. Getting blasted by Alabama and Florida likely leads to implosion. I'm not predicting they'll get blasted because this is a crazy year. However, I'd be shocked if the Aggies finish above .500.

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9 hours ago, cafe society said:

You must have watched a different FLA-Ole Miss game than I did, because Gator D > aggy D, and Rebel receivers ran wild and free through their secondary.   Ole Miss puts up 45+ on aggy.  Aggy can't score 45 on ANYONE.

You're giving Freshwater too much credit. There's no telling with that guy from week to week. 

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16 hours ago, Lobwedgephil said:

if the Ags don’t turn the ball over three times and give up a fourth possession on the botched punt return, they pull away and win pretty comfortably, perhaps even generating some offensive rhythm along the way.

Ah, Looch's favorite rhetorical device.  Just imagine, if aggy hadn't played so shitty, you rubes wouldn't be so mad.  Did you ever think of that?  DID YOU?!?!

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16 hours ago, Lobwedgephil said:

The Aggies are balanced, and there is no problem with winning SEC games behind a powerful ground game, ball control, some big plays and great defense. Heck, it worked pretty well throughout Fisher’s first year in Aggieland, when A&M was a terrible finish at Auburn away from a 10-win season. 

Looch's framing really is a work of art. The loss to Auburn was because of a terrible finish, lets just round up to 10 wins. I wonder if Looch would grant a LSU writer saying they were "a terrible finish at Texas A&M from a 10-win season".

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35 minutes ago, WBT said:

Ah, Looch's favorite rhetorical device.  Just imagine, if aggy hadn't played so shitty, you rubes wouldn't be so mad.  Did you ever think of that?  DID YOU?!?!

"If I was attractive and straight, I could have any woman I want." - Billy Liucci 

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