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predictions about Earth 2000 from 1952 & more


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so how many did Heinlein get right from 1952? It's quite good.  #11 is a wowza, but that smartphones didn't become mainstream until 2005 right??  #15, to predict the death of communism in 1952 is incredible. Thumbs up for these 2.

 

https://io9.gizmodo.com/robert-heinleins-predictions-for-the-year-2000-from-19-5871053

 
February 1952 issue of Galaxy magazine, Robert Heinlein offered his verdict on the conclusion of the twentieth century. He would later revisit these predictions in the 1966 short story collection The Worlds of Robert A. Heinleinand discuss the challenges of predicting the future. Here's what the author gathered, six decades ago:
 

So let's have a few free-swinging predictions about the future. Some will be wrong - but cautious predictions are sure to be wrong.

1. Interplanetary travel is waiting at your front door — C.O.D. It's yours when you pay for it.

2. Contraception and control of disease is revising relations between the sexes to an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure.

3. The most important military fact of this century is that there is no way to repel an attack from outer space.

4. It is utterly impossible that the United States will start a "preventive war." We will fight when attacked, either directly or in a territory we have guaranteed to defend.

5. In fifteen years the housing shortage will be solved by a "breakthrough" into new technologies which will make every house now standing as obsolete as privies.

6. We'll all be getting a little hungry by and by.

7. The cult of the phony in art will disappear. So-called "modern art" will be discussed only by psychiatrists.

8. Freud will be classed as a pre-scientific, intuitive pioneer and psychoanalysis will be replaced by a growing, changing "operational psychology" based on measurement and prediction.

9. Cancer, the common cold, and tooth decay will all be conquered; the revolutionary new problem in medical research will be to accomplish "regeneration," i.e., to enable a man to grow a new leg, rather than fit him with an artificial limb.

10. By the end of this century mankind will have explored this solar system, and the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be a-building.

11. Your personal telephone will be small enough to carry in your handbag. Your house telephone will record messages, answer simple inquiries, and transmit vision.

12. Intelligent life will be found on Mars.

13. A thousand miles an hour at a cent a mile will be commonplace; short hauls will be made in evacuated subways at extreme speed.

14. A major objective of applied physics will be to control gravity.

15. We will not achieve a "World State" in the predictable future. Nevertheless, Communism will vanish from this planet.

16. Increasing mobility will disenfranchise a majority of the population. About 1990 a constitutional amendment will do away with state lines while retaining the semblance.

17. All aircraft will be controlled by a giant radar net run on a continent-wide basis by a multiple electronic "brain."

18. Fish and yeast will become our principal sources of proteins. Beef will be a luxury; lamb and mutton will disappear.

19. Mankind will not destroy itself, nor will "Civilization" be destroyed.

Here are things we won't get soon, if ever:

— Travel through time
— Travel faster than the speed of light
— "Radio" transmission of matter.
— Manlike robots with manlike reactions
— Laboratory creation of life
— Real understanding of what "thought" is and how it is related to matter.
— Scientific proof of personal survival after death.
— Nor a permanent end to war.

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even better, predictions from 1900.

https://www.businessinsider.com/futurist-in-1900-makes-predictions-that-came-true-2015-10#strawberries-as-large-as-apples-will-be-eaten-by-our-great-great-grandchildren-12

12 predictions from 1900 that are frighteningly accurate

55b7d0376bb3f7356214282f-750.jpg
 
Oct. 20, 2015, 11:56 AM
 
watkins predictionsWikimedia Commons Sometimes — most times — our predictions of the future are hilariously wrong. (Looking at you, whale bus.)

But sometimes people get it frighteningly right, as J. Elfreth Watkins, a civil engineer from the 19th century, did.

Watkins made over a dozen lofty predictions about the future and was off-base on only a small number of them.

Here are Watkins' predictions, published in a 1900 issue of Ladies' Home Journal under the title "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years."

 

"Americans will be taller by 1 to 2 inches."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d0-750-563.jpgLuke MacGregor/Reuters

On average, 21-year-old males are 1 1/2 inches taller today than they were in 1912. Females are about half an inch taller.

The steady increase in height is due largely to an improved diet. We are consuming more protein, vitamins, and minerals than we were in centuries past.

Also, thanks to advances in medical technology, we can stop diseases from taking over our bodies and preventing those important nutrients from getting absorbed.

"Express trains [will travel at] one hundred and fifty miles per hour."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d1-750-563.jpgElliott Brown/Flickr

Even though Watkins' prediction that typical rail services would travel 120 mphwas twice the actual speed, his prediction for express trains was accurate, if conservative.

The Acela express train hits top speeds of 150 mph.

The Shinkansen in Japan, known more commonly as bullet trains, glide along at 198 mph.

And if Elon Musk's Hyperloop comes to life, we could see trains approaching the speed of sound, or 760 mph.

"Ready-cooked meals will be bought from establishments similar to our bakeries of today."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d2-750.jpgStouffer's

The frozen-food industry is worth $33 billion.

"Man will see around the world. Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electrically with screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d3-750.jpgScreenshot - Google for Work

Yep, that's the internet.

"Huge forts on wheels will dash across open spaces at the speed of express trains of today."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d4-750.jpgThomson Reuters

In 1900, your average locomotive hit a top speed of 40 mph.

Today's military tanks, by contrast, can get up to 45 mph.

"Physicians will be able to see and diagnose internal organs of a moving, living body by rays of invisible light."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d5-750.jpgFlickr Dave Parker

X-rays, MRI tests, CAT scans, and ultrasonography (ultrasounds) are among the most valuable imaging technologies medical science has at its disposal.

They rely on invisible or inaudible waves that pass through the body and interact with the molecules inside to produce an image.

"There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 people in America."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d6-750-563.jpgWikimedia Commons

Watkins gave himself a big range to work with here, but he was almost right.

As of this writing, there are just under 322 million people living in the US.

"Anyone unable to walk 10 miles in a stretch will be considered a weakling."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d7-750-563.jpgJacky Naegelen/Reuters

The 10-mile figure isn't hard and fast, but Watkins did seem to be on to something, given today's obesity epidemic.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that more than one in three Americans, or 78.6 million people, is obese.

Another one out of three is overweight, and the trend is only continuing among younger generations.

"All hurry traffic will be below or above ground when brought within city limits."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d8-750.jpgThomson Reuters

Cities are becoming more popular, and so is public transportation: Use of trains, buses, and subways are at their highest levels since 1956.

In 1800, only 3% of people lived in cities. By 1950, that rate had risen to 30%, and today it sits at an even split. In developed nations, the rate is even higher — about 74%.

The World Health Organization estimates that by 2017, even in less developed countries the majority of people will be living in urban areas.

"Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45d9-750.jpgInstagram

"If there be a battle in China a hundred years hence, snapshots of its most striking events will be published in the newspapers an hour later ... photographs will reproduce all of nature's colours."

Sounds as if Watkins just invented Instagram.

"Vegetables will be bathed in powerful electric light, serving, like sunlight, to hasten their growth."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45da-750-563.jpgGotham Greens/Ari Burling

"Electric currents applied to the soil will make valuable plants to grow larger and faster, and will kill troublesome weeds. Rays of coloured light will hasten the growth of many plants. Electricity applied to garden seeds will make them sprout and develop unusually early."

Grow lights and greenhouses powered by electricity are popular alternatives to planting seeds under natural sunlight.

One of the largest industries where this is true is in marijuana farming.

"Strawberries as large as apples will be eaten by our great-great-grandchildren."

5624f34fdd0895c3588b45db-750.jpgJulien GONG Min/Flickr

Genetic modification allows fruit and vegetables to grow larger.

Strawberries might not be the size of apples, but without genetic modifications, apples would be the size of strawberries— not to mention unpalatable.

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5 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Robert was very libertarian. I can see how he would think state lines would disappear, but fuck Oklahoma.

I also wish communism was gone as well.

interesting point about the commies. IMO, it's softened dramatically since their peak.  USSR is dead, China and Vietnam are making capitalist products all day.  So the only hard core commies are North Korea, anyone else? 

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30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We should start a prediction thread for Surly.

what will happens 10 years from now? 20? Eyc

The average lifespan of a Longhorn message board appears to be around 10 years, so see you guys at Shaggyhorns in 2028.

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3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

We should start a prediction thread for Surly.

what will happens 10 years from now? 20? Eyc

Derka will still be praising the virtues of Rick Barnes, claiming Barnes was a better coach than Herman, after Herman's 5 National Titles. 

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