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2018 Rain Thread


Hollywood

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2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

So we gonna get some nasty shit tonight?

Depends on what you eat.  On another note, there may be some bad weather today with a tornado dong.

 

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Cautiously returning here...

The forecast today will be (for AUS):  increasing chances of rain during the day, small chance for storms to pass through in advance of a cold front coming in later tonight.  Widespread, but if you get under one, you could get a lot of rain.  Small chance of hail/high winds/severe.  Tornado threat low but marginally possible.  I don't think most of us will get rain before sunset.  As predicted, radar showing most of the rain/weather staying N of Austin right now through most of the day.

Tonight (er, tomorrow) the cold front sweeps through between 3 and 6 a.m.   This is when we'll almost certainly get a frontal rain (i.e. line of storms moving through).  This is also the time it'll be possible to get some strong storms.  Portions of the line will be severe, but not all up and down it.  I'd say chances of rain with this line are > 90%, it's gonna happen.  You might get "woken" up.   In any case, the rain amounts shouldn't be overly great; most places about an inch.  The bulk of the rain is going to be NE of us into AR and LA, and E. Texas where it's already saturated, so they might flood.

Due to the nature of this system, which is fairly strong, and will pull a lot of cool, moist air down with it, rain chances will continue after the front passes early tomorrow a.m., probably into the noon hour.  Then the severe line ramps up mostly SE of us; we'll be in relatively stable air.  If you live between 35 and the coast, you might get some big storms later Wed afternoon.

DFW, today you should get a good shot of the current line, which will arrive in mid-afternoon.  Some could be severe, but not everyone.  Today is primarily your rain day.

As was talked about in the now-dead thread, this has been a typical La Niña winter/spring:  dry for us.  The storms have all tracked well N/NE of Texas and we've gotten little steady rain although we've had a bunch of "damp" weather; for this reason the drought isn't as bad here as W/NW Texas, where it's really bad.  Harvey et. al. has kept the E-SE portions of the state's ground wet, plus there has been a lot more rain moving across TX south of us then up the coast (Houston's got a lot more rain since last fall).

The dry weather was predicted; this doesn't mean it's going to stay dry through the spring, but we'll see.  The 3-month outlooks call for a pretty strong chance of little rain and warmer than normal.  Not looking great so far for 2018.  But this often changes.

Back later if shit goes down/changes.


Obligatory:  forcefield, not going to rain, bullshit.

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2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Cautiously returning here...

The forecast today will be (for AUS):  increasing chances of rain during the day, small chance for storms to pass through in advance of a cold front coming in later tonight.  Widespread, but if you get under one, you could get a lot of rain.  Small chance of hail/high winds/severe.  Tornado threat low but marginally possible.  I don't think most of us will get rain before sunset.  As predicted, radar showing most of the rain/weather staying N of Austin right now through most of the day.

Tonight (er, tomorrow) the cold front sweeps through between 3 and 6 a.m.   This is when we'll almost certainly get a frontal rain (i.e. line of storms moving through).  This is also the time it'll be possible to get some strong storms.  Portions of the line will be severe, but not all up and down it.  I'd say chances of rain with this line are > 90%, it's gonna happen.  You might get "woken" up.   In any case, the rain amounts shouldn't be overly great; most places about an inch.  The bulk of the rain is going to be NE of us into AR and LA, and E. Texas where it's already saturated, so they might flood.

Due to the nature of this system, which is fairly strong, and will pull a lot of cool, moist air down with it, rain chances will continue after the front passes early tomorrow a.m., probably into the noon hour.  Then the severe line ramps up mostly SE of us; we'll be in relatively stable air.  If you live between 35 and the coast, you might get some big storms later Wed afternoon.

DFW, today you should get a good shot of the current line, which will arrive in mid-afternoon.  Some could be severe, but not everyone.  Today is primarily your rain day.

As was talked about in the now-dead thread, this has been a typical La Niña winter/spring:  dry for us.  The storms have all tracked well N/NE of Texas and we've gotten little steady rain although we've had a bunch of "damp" weather; for this reason the drought isn't as bad here as W/NW Texas, where it's really bad.  Harvey et. al. has kept the E-SE portions of the state's ground wet, plus there has been a lot more rain moving across TX south of us then up the coast (Houston's got a lot more rain since last fall).

The dry weather was predicted; this doesn't mean it's going to stay dry through the spring, but we'll see.  The 3-month outlooks call for a pretty strong chance of little rain and warmer than normal.  Not looking great so far for 2018.  But this often changes.

Back later if shit goes down/changes.


Obligatory:  forcefield, not going to rain, bullshit.

tldr

Am I taking my kid to practice at 6?

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30 minutes ago, Footballpants said:

Speaking of frontal, how bout a pic of your wife's RATs?

You have some?  Awesome!  Post 'em here!

Let's just say that 1) probably na. naga.. nagonnahappen proally, and 2) first South Austin has to come through with the wife's slide-in's.  Then we'll talk.

Drizzly drippy-droppy here in The Cave, but temps just went down 10° due to rain-cooled air.  Chances pick up now through tomorrow a.m., peaking 3-4 a.m. in AUS.
Houston, tomorrow is your day for big storms.

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26 minutes ago, LoneStarBiker said:

4+ inches in Kyle, we needed it.  

Hopefully the Blanco gets some significant runoff it's been super dry and I want to get my kayak fishing going on. 

Looks like you guys won the rain total contest in the Austin area, although higher totals might be falling today east of U.S. 77.  But totals in the region were all pretty uniform, 2"-3.5" or so.  This go-round the forecasts nailed it pretty well.

Heading into a dry spell, it looks like, so enjoy this.  However, the ground will be saturated for at least 2 weeks from this, being so uniform + widespread.  Pretty much guarantees a pretty hefty spring growing season now.

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Just now, phdhorn said:

Whoa, hold onto your asses, another blob moving right up 35, should hit in about an hour or so if it holds together.
BTW, rain chances are high most of the day until at least dinner time.  Moar!

yeah, that is a big mother right now.

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