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impeachment inquiry hearings thread


henrygandorf

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I might consider a small play on NO on completing first term. Outs are removal from office, resignation, assassination, medical event resulting in removal.  Old guy, mentally unstable, high pressure situation, fear and anxiety regarding future criminal liability. I'd prefer to buy a NO at <.20, but I like that number a hell of a lot more than Senate convict YES at any price.

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Realistically, if they impeach, it almost guarantees he gets reelected.


I asked this somewhere around here...but what’s the rationale behind this take? It’s all over comments across the web. Is the thought it’ll galvanize the already rabid bass? Trump fans will press the voting button harder?
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7 minutes ago, Homercles said:

 


I asked this somewhere around here...but what’s the rationale behind this take? It’s all over comments across the web. Is the thought it’ll galvanize the already rabid bass? Trump fans will press the voting button harder?

 

It’s the porcupine strategy.  It’s the same desperate shit threatened pussies try to avoid an imminent beating.  “Touch me and I’ll fuck you up!” Yeah, sure you will, pal.  Sure you will.

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If Biden is the nominee, I could seen an unsuccessful impeachment related to trump pressuring another county over what he would frame as an investigation into Biden’s corruption could work in his favor. I don’t think he wins but maybe it gets interesting. But warren will be the nominee and will wipe the floor with him. 

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Ok so Facemask, TexasThrillho, donut boy, seed, or one of our other resident Trumpists can give me their logic in making that statement...it’s always drive-by in the threads...maybe I should ask in the Jussie/Climate/Gun threads where they’re more ‘engaged’.

I mean it’s possible it’s true, albeit slightly, that a few critical counties enraged at orange god being persecuted for crimes he’s already admitted to committing could tip the whole electoral like in 2016. But I want to hear the logic behind it from those who actively spread it all over boards and comment sections.

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Ok so Facemask, TexasThrillho, donut boy, seed, or one of our other resident Trumpists can give me their logic in making that statement...it’s always drive-by in the threads...maybe I should ask in the Jussie/Climate/Gun threads where they’re more ‘engaged’.

I mean it’s possible it’s true, albeit slightly, that a few critical counties enraged at orange god being persecuted for crimes he’s already admitted to committing could tip the whole electoral like in 2016. But I want to hear the logic behind it from those who actively spread it all over boards and comment sections.


They do those dumbass drive by comments because they know they have nothing to stand on except “IN YOUR FACE LIBS!”.

They’re stupid.
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10 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Ok so Facemask, TexasThrillho, donut boy, seed, or one of our other resident Trumpists can give me their logic in making that statement...it’s always drive-by in the threads...maybe I should ask in the Jussie/Climate/Gun threads where they’re more ‘engaged’.

I mean it’s possible it’s true, albeit slightly, that a few critical counties enraged at orange god being persecuted for crimes he’s already admitted to committing could tip the whole electoral like in 2016. But I want to hear the logic behind it from those who actively spread it all over boards and comment sections.

Don't forget how angry and energized they were about Kavanaugh in the midterms.

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23 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

I think we've reached the limit of the "How is he going to wriggle out of this one :: He wriggles out of it easily" meme. He ain't squeezing through this closing hole.

No we haven't. You are thinking about it wrong. Watch what his handlers do. Trump has done enough to be impeached twice over if he was any other President even before this.

His game is pretty simple. Distill the current offense down to a singular event and try to change perception to the point where the singular event is viewed as not so bad. In doing so, throw all other past "singular" events into the shade. 

We have already fallen into the trap this time too.  The media and the House should be ringing the bell on Trump's entire history with this just being the icing on the cake. Instead, they can't even muster up a whistleblower + Mueller Report case, much less try to build a case on his entire body of work. 

The whole fucking impeachment inquiry is going to focus on a single whistleblower and a single phone call.  Watch. Meanwhile, Trump's lawyer and campaign manager are still rotting in prison for crimes that aren't even going to be discussed in this inquiry. 

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2 hours ago, Facemask said:

No sock I promise. Been around since Hookem and Shaggybevo. Class of 2001. Hardly post, but the Politics board is so ridiculous I wanted to give my opinion. Like I said, I'm sure most of us would get along outside of the Surly.

1865ff1541f41ae73d01e7d87e8c0e4e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

haha totally bro. you definitely know that shag/surly humor. that movie is so funny when he jumps out of the trunk and aint got no pants on and a tiny dick! me and my boys laughed our ass off at that. you sound pretty chill tho, we should hang sometime. 

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5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

The whole fucking impeachment inquiry is going to focus on a single whistleblower and a single phone call

It is a smoking gun on a silver platter with witnesses and it’s not complicated.  It doesn’t deal with financial records or shit people don’t understand like emoluments.  The democrats should swing for the fences on this one.  If they keep it simple and don’t get distracted, this could be a fatality.  (Either in the election or resignation.)

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5 hours ago, Pasken said:

Who thinks McConnell is going to wait to hold an impeachment trial since it's an election year and let "the people decide"?

I have been saying it all along.

But now that Moscow Mitch only has a 1 point lead in the latest polling in his senate race, I think he could allow the trial if it is the only way he might save his reelection, But if he does, he will already have the votes for removal by equally scared or non-Trump Republicans.

Republican Mike Murphy said that one Senator told him there are 30 Republican Senators who would vote to remove on a secret ballot. Moscow Mitch can get the votes if things look bad enough for him. But if he does, it blows up the party. The party gets blown up anyway, but that would be faster.

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I was trying to figure out what sort of alliance Moscow Mitch would put together in such a scenario. He will need his leadership team. Retirees with nothing to lose might be willing to "save the Republic." (ha) He has a list of foes on the record and likely others off the record. Some of those foes and others are in tough reelections where they might role the dice and vote for removal.

Leadership: Moscow Mitch, Thune, Cornyn
Retirees: Roberts, Isakson, Enzi, Alexander, Burr, Johnson, Inhofe, Grassley, Shelby
Trump's Foes: Romney, Rubio, Cruz, Sasse, Sullivan, Portman, Collins, Gardner, Lee, Murkowski
Reelection Hail Mary: McSally, Toomey 

It looks to me like Moscow Mitch could come up with 20 votes if he made the decision to do it.

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I don’t understand the trump wins argument.  He lost the General and the path he opened for republicans in the blue wall was a multi-state combined couple hundred thousand votes max? And it was a populist message about factory jobs for poor whites that resonated mostly?  Sanders and Warren speak to that demographic pretty damn well evidenced by Sanders beating HRC in those areas in the primary.  The blue states are bluer and some of them purple states are bluer and a handful of the red states are now teetering on purple.  The door that opened didn’t open that wide and the midterms showed Dems can get those areas back pretty easily. 

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3 hours ago, RayDog said:

I was trying to figure out what sort of alliance Moscow Mitch would put together in such a scenario. He will need his leadership team. Retirees with nothing to lose might be willing to "save the Republic." (ha) He has a list of foes on the record and likely others off the record. Some of those foes and others are in tough reelections where they might role the dice and vote for removal.

Leadership: Moscow Mitch, Thune, Cornyn
Retirees: Roberts, Isakson, Enzi, Alexander, Burr, Johnson, Inhofe, Grassley, Shelby
Trump's Foes: Romney, Rubio, Cruz, Sasse, Sullivan, Portman, Collins, Gardner, Lee, Murkowski
Reelection Hail Mary: McSally, Toomey 

It looks to me like Moscow Mitch could come up with 20 votes if he made the decision to do it.

Problem is on the one side trump is a liability hence MM with a 1 point lead and on the other side there are no other routes to win.  I don’t think these politicians really want it to be trumps party but there is no party without trump.  The electorate for republicans are trump rabid voters.  Abandoning trump isn’t a winning strategy even if being loyal has its district by district liability. 

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I'm still laughing about the fact that, in an attempt at getting out in front of this latest fiasco, the WH issued a call summary that validated the whistleblower's story. 

Even when Trump believes his behavior is so legal and cool that he attempts transparency, it turns out he's at best highly unethical. 

Compare that to the way he has behaved with regards to the other "PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT!!!" topics: his taxes and to Russia...

 

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10 hours ago, Pasken said:

Who thinks McConnell is going to wait to hold an impeachment trial since it's an election year and let "the people decide"?

I think this is exactly what will happen ... so long as McConnell wants Trump to run for a second term.  Either McConnell is going to try to delay and delay so that no trial is held, or at some point he is going to decide that his best chance of keeping power is to flip on Trump and go with Pence.  If that happens, it will happen pretty fast as senate members jump off the train.

Flipping on Trump would create a wide open 2020 Republican primary and allow all of the R's who flipped to say that they had taken the moral high ground.  Within a month of Trump's removal, Cruz and Rubio would be back in the 2020 mix, along with 15 other R's who want to be president.  This benefits Fox News by attracting millions of eyeballs during the trial and during a contested 2020 primary.  If Fox turns on Trump, Trump's approval rating will tank and McConnell will allow a trial.

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45 minutes ago, troph said:

I don’t understand the trump wins argument.  He lost the General and the path he opened for republicans in the blue wall was a multi-state combined couple hundred thousand votes max? And it was a populist message about factory jobs for poor whites that resonated mostly?  Sanders and Warren speak to that demographic pretty damn well evidenced by Sanders beating HRC in those areas in the primary.  The blue states are bluer and some of them purple states are bluer and a handful of the red states are now teetering on purple.  The door that opened didn’t open that wide and the midterms showed Dems can get those areas back pretty easily. 

I can see how someone could think impeachment could only help Trump if that person believes that Biden is the best shot at beating him. Dragging Trump through the mud with this will also drag Biden, which hurts his chances in the primaries. Then Warren or Sanders win the primary and can't pull enough votes in the general because they are too far left. Of course for that logic to work there are a number of assumptions that have to be made, and many of them are suspect.

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While I agree with troph that Warren/Sanders can crush Trump in the blue wall with a message of economic fairness and justice, what Trump is going to rely on is voter suppression. I don't just mean in the sense of purging rolls and closing polling places (which the Republicans do very well), but sowing enough doubt and discord in the minds of typical non-voters to keep them home.

The 2018 midterms had record turnout for both sides. The Kavanaugh hearings motivated the hell out of Republican midterm voters and impeachment will motivate the hell out of Republican 2020 voters. They are going to show up, and they are going to show up huge. There is not going to be a stay-at-home-because-we-are-ashamed situation among the Republican voters in 2020, they will come out in force and impeachment proceedings will only help their turnout.

So we have to make sure our turnout increase is even higher than theirs. Having Biden as the frontrunner when the big story (impeachment) involves him and his son and some very obvious nepotistic corruption is an absolutely perfect way for Trump to sow doubt in the minds of non-voters. Trump arguing, "I was just trying to make sure that Corrupt Joe and his crack-smoking loser son were properly investigated about that $50k/week job he wasn't qualified for" won't get the non-voters on Trump's side, but it could very easily make them say, "Ah, screw this! Everyone's so corrupt" and stay home.

And if they stay home, Trump gets a 2nd term.

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On 9/24/2019 at 7:26 PM, Homercles said:

Can someone explain to me how impeachment efforts will guarantee Trump being reelected?  It’s all over the comments on FN, Reddit and occasionally here...I legit want someone from that line of thinking to explain the rationale here. 

 

The public knew that the impeachment of Clinton was fucking bullshit, and the GOP, especially in the house, paid for it immediately after. It ended Newt's career.

Everyone assumes the same will happen this time, except in reverse. Of course, the obvious difference here is that impeaching DOTARD is not bullshit.

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2 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

The public knew that the impeachment of Clinton was fucking bullshit, and the GOP, especially in the house, paid for it immediately after. It ended Newt's career.

Everyone assumes the same will happen this time, except in reverse. Of course, the obvious difference here is that impeaching DOTARD is not bullshit.

Newts career ended with his own cheating while investigating Clinton over his affairs. Apparently, he thought he could do both.

Edited by Mdhorn
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22 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If the Senate had the votes to convict, they would force resignation.  

I feel like I'm the only one on earth that has thought this through. 

Theoretically, the Senate should never vote to convict a sitting president because the alternative of resignation is better for everyone involved. 

 

Theoretically? Theoretically?

 

Theoretically, we wouldn't have a narcissist suffering from dementia as DOTARD.

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1 minute ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Theoretically? Theoretically?

 

Theoretically, we wouldn't have a narcissist suffering from dementia as DOTARD.

My statement applies to all presidents, past and future, not just Trump.  

The Senate has no substantive authority in removal of the president until the House impeaches.  

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