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Fire Shaka Smart


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2 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I think that the winner of TX/OU is in and the loser hosts at least the 1st round in the NIT.

I didn’t realize that OU has Baylor & Kansas after we play on Saturday. 

Now I don’t think either team makes the NCAA tournament if Texas loses in Norman. Texas has a good shot if we win in Norman and at least one game next week. Especially if we win out. 

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4 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I think that the winner of TX/OU is in and the loser hosts at least the 1st round in the NIT.

I think you're putting way too much weight on the value of a win over OU based on where we're attempting to come from. Our record makes it look like we're close; the guys who get paid to speculate on this stuff for a living don't think we are. 

IF, and the websites make that IF a difficult determination, IF the West Virginia win is factored in and we're STILL not in the bubble group, there's not much this team can do in practical realistic terms to get in (winning out plus a deep run in the B12 tournament seems like it would do it, but I don't consider that "realistic"). If there are a group of "last four in", "first four out", AND "next four out" post-WVU and we're still not in that mix? Then we probably need to go 2-1 the rest of the way AND then get far enough into the B12 tournament to beat one of Kansas or Baylor to drag us into consideration.

If we're not in the bubble group today, I don't think beating OU and OSU along with a chalk win in the B12 tournament overcomes that.

Edited by SwanderedTalent
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41 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

If we're not in the bubble group today, I don't think beating OU and OSU along with a chalk win in the B12 tournament overcomes that.

If we beat OU and win out, we most likely finish 3 games ahead of them in the conference standings and in the season record. 

That being said, the way they looked tonight, I don’t think we keep it close.  

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9 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

I think Shaka comes back unless he loses out.  Cdc wants no part of this, IMO.  

Why? He's already dumped underperforming nonrev coaches, and he's been happy to fundraise on a massive scale for facilities improvements, including for basketball.

Seems to me he'd realize that gambling on the NIT run hasn't panned out and cut his losses.

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1 hour ago, SwanderedTalent said:

I think it's a lot easier to wheedle money out of BMDs to build stuff and put their names on it than it is to fire a coach in a sport they don't really care about. My opinion. Could be wrong, I don't know what animates them.cdc

This. I think CDC is waiting for the motivated BMD to come to him.  Cdc is not going out of his way to pay 2 head coaches at the same time and cause himself more work, when a year from now he can interview candidates with the promise that they will get to open a brand new gym.  Plus cdc doesn’t know if Herman will work out or not.  He doesn’t want to have to hire both football and basketball at the same time. This thing has got to make sense fir cdc, or a BMD has to make it easy for him.   

 

I think 

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3 minutes ago, orangecat92 said:

This. I think CDC is waiting for the motivated BMD to come to him.  Cdc is not going out of his way to pay 2 head coaches at the same time and cause himself more work, when a year from now he can interview candidates with the promise that they will get to open a brand new gym.  Plus cdc doesn’t know if Herman will work out or not.  He doesn’t want to have to hire both football and basketball at the same time. This thing has got to make sense fir cdc, or a BMD has to make it easy for him.   

 

I think 

Potentially:

$1.5 million per year + buyout for a new WBB coach
$10 million to make Shaka go away + assistants
$3-5 million per year for a new MBB coach + their buyout
$20 million (?) to make Tom go away + assistants
$5-7 million per year for a new FB coach + their buyout

I think this just gave CDC anxiety diarrhea. 

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5 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I didn’t realize that OU has Baylor & Kansas after we play on Saturday. 

 

2 hours ago, PantsTent said:

All of this sentence is false, but I’m waiting for my fingernail polish to dry, so I can post the correct schedule.

Apparently the guys on CBS sports didn’t do their research or I misunderstood them. 

ESPN’s website says that OU’s final 3 conference games are:

@ WVU

vs UT

@ TCU 

So not exactly UT, then a combo of Kansas & Baylor. 

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I guess to be clear on my position, I am not saying that I'm confident Smart will be back next year. I just think he's far from a dead man walking, for a lot of reasons that have NOTHING to do with on-court wins/losses. I see people saying "lulz he's already fired"-- no, he's not. It is not a given, unfortunately. 

And I will freely admit that I am pretty cynical at this point about UT athletics in that regard, so I wouldn't necessarily be able to see it if he'd already committed enough sins to get fired. 

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Potentially:
$1.5 million per year + buyout for a new WBB coach
$10 million to make Shaka go away + assistants
$3-5 million per year for a new MBB coach + their buyout
$20 million (?) to make Tom go away + assistants
$5-7 million per year for a new FB coach + their buyout
I think this just gave CDC anxiety diarrhea. 


Generally speaking, I’ve got to wonder how much buyouts are factored into AD budgeting, even when making an offer to a coach. It’s so commonplace, it would be financial malpractice NOT to have something set aside for it. It’s akin to accruing with the assumption you’re company will pay out a full bonus a full year in advance, even if you have no idea if you’ll hit your numbers.
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6 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 


Generally speaking, I’ve got to wonder how much buyouts are factored into AD budgeting, even when making an offer to a coach. It’s so commonplace, it would be financial malpractice NOT to have something set aside for it. It’s akin to accruing with the assumption you’re company will pay out a full bonus a full year in advance, even if you have no idea if you’ll hit your numbers.

 

Just for shits and giggles, not including assistant buyouts

$10 million to make Shaka go away
$20 million to make Tom go away
$1.75 million if we manage to lure someone like Jeff Walz for WBB
$6 million if we manage to lure Chris Beard from Tech
$2 million if we hired Bryan Harsin

So CDC already has to commit $40 million just to kick 2 coaches to the curb and get 3 coaches to leave their current schools + assistant buyouts + new 5 year contracts for 3 coaches (Though Beilein would be a $0 buyout to get him) 

Image result for throwing money away gif

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16 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

I don’t even think that’s a bubble team, that’s comfortably in.

That would be in with that team had a good OOC resume. This Texas team doesn't (113 SOS OOC). 5-11 vs Q1 and Q2 teams sucks for an at large birth which is why no one is mentioning Texas as a bubble team right now. Beat Tech and OU, then the talk starts to pick up. The West Virginia win alone jump the Net rating up 9 spots to 66. Still a ways away from where it needs to be for a bubble team.

Looking at Lunardi's 16 Bubble teams, the average Net ranking for those teams is 51. Not too mention Texas is 0-3 against those teams with a 58.7 to 74.7 average score.

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

Potentially:

$1.5 million per year + buyout for a new WBB coach
$10 million to make Shaka go away + assistants
$3-5 million per year for a new MBB coach + their buyout
$20 million (?) to make Tom go away + assistants
$5-7 million per year for a new FB coach + their buyout

I think this just gave CDC anxiety diarrhea. 

UGH! 

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think you're putting way too much weight on the value of a win over OU based on where we're attempting to come from. Our record makes it look like we're close; the guys who get paid to speculate on this stuff for a living don't think we are.

The guys who are speculating are making assumptions about how we will finish the year.  Nobody is going to have us beating either Tech or OU.  If we win one or two of those games, the entire conversation changes.  Since the start of the 10-team Big-12 in 2012, no 10-8 team has failed to miss the tourney.  75% of 9-9 teams (100% last 5 years) and 60% of 8-10 teams made it in.  And even a 7-11 OU made it. 

In 8 years, the Big-12 got 7 teams in 4 times, 6 teams 3 times, and 5 only once.  While this year looks like a down year for the conference, we will still have two #1 seeds  and are generally viewed as the #2 conference.  We will get at least 5 bids, probably 6.

Conference Results

2019:  9-9 ISU, 7-11 OU made tourney.  8-10 UT missed  (6/10 teams made it in)

2018: 9-9 TCU, 8-10 OU, 8-10 UT made tourney.  8-10 OSU, 8-10 Baylor missed  (7/10 teams made it in)

2017: 9-9 OSU, 8-10 KSU made tourney  (6/10 teams made it in)

2016: 9-9 Tech made tourney   (7/10 teams made it in)

2015: 8-10 UT, 8-10 OSU made tourney, 8-10 K-State missed (7/10 teams made it in)

2014: 9-9 Baylor, 8-10 OSU made tourney, 9-9 (17-16 overall) West Virginia missed  (7/10 teams made it in)

2013: 9-9 (23-14 overall) Baylor missed (NIT champs) (5/10 teams made it in)

2012: 9-9 Texas made tourney (6/10 teams made it in)

Edited by HookEm
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3 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

This. I think CDC is waiting for the motivated BMD to come to him.  Cdc is not going out of his way to pay 2 head coaches at the same time and cause himself more work, when a year from now he can interview candidates with the promise that they will get to open a brand new gym.  Plus cdc doesn’t know if Herman will work out or not.  He doesn’t want to have to hire both football and basketball at the same time. This thing has got to make sense fir cdc, or a BMD has to make it easy for him.   

 

I think 

I keep seeing you regurgitate the same  speculation daily in every thread of why Shaka is coming back and none of them make any sense.

Any coach CDC interviews this year gets the promise of opening the new gym. Now cocach is getting fired year one after this Shaka debacle, so that is not a pint in favor of waiting. 
 

Neither is Herman’s uncertainty. He’s better off moving to fire Shaka now. If Herman sucks next year, he will have no problem raising the funds to can Herman and get a new coach no matter the cost. BMDs will pony up to give Herman the boot and want to spend on a big name. Howeve if they pony up for football in December, then they’ not going to want to pay for Shaka + a new coach’s buyout four months later.
 

Firing Shaka now spreads out the firings more, not the other way around like you’re trying to claim, and doesn’t hamstring him him for either football or basketball. 

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Potentially:

$1.5 million per year + buyout for a new WBB coach
$10 million to make Shaka go away + assistants
$3-5 million per year for a new MBB coach + their buyout
$20 million (?) to make Tom go away + assistants
$5-7 million per year for a new FB coach + their buyout

I think this just gave CDC anxiety diarrhea. 

Half the money in here are budgeted costs that aren’t meaningful. We will be paying basketball and football coaches no matter what, so lumping in their salaries is not something that causes concern for CDC. 

Plus the money you’re showing for buyouts is owed over time, so it’s not like CDC would have to raise the $30 million owed to Shaka and Herman all at once.
 

On top of that, if we hire Beilein this cycle, then there’s no buyout for a new CBB coach (which would have to be raised immediately) and would be cheaper than keeping Shaka for another year and paying the buyout next year. 
 

The reality is that firing Shaka and possibly Herman doesn’t out some massive fundraising onus on CDC, and he’s good at fundraising anyways. Plus, like i said above, if Herman sucks next year, CDC won’t even have to lift a finger and the money for canning Herman will be there. 

Edited by Burt Macklin
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4 hours ago, Lurch said:

 


Generally speaking, I’ve got to wonder how much buyouts are factored into AD budgeting, even when making an offer to a coach. It’s so commonplace, it would be financial malpractice NOT to have something set aside for it. It’s akin to accruing with the assumption you’re company will pay out a full bonus a full year in advance, even if you have no idea if you’ll hit your numbers.

 

Hiring a coach who is unemployed will avoid a second buyout and make the math better for firing this season instead of next

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48 minutes ago, destroya said:

I don't see a few dead man walking wins moving the needle on keeping Shaka.  We're a poorly coached team that relies on a few shooters getting hot to win.  Nothing I've seen over the past three games changes this.

Shaka could make firing him very difficult but that is highly unlikely.  He's no where close after just 3 wins.

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4 hours ago, HookEm said:

The guys who are speculating are making assumptions about how we will finish the year.  Nobody is going to have us beating either Tech or OU.  If we win one or two of those games, the entire conversation changes.  Since the start of the 10-team Big-12 in 2012, no 10-8 team has failed to miss the tourney.  75% of 9-9 teams (100% last 5 years) and 60% of 8-10 teams made it in.  And even a 7-11 OU made it. 

In 8 years, the Big-12 got 7 teams in 4 times, 6 teams 3 times, and 5 only once.  While this year looks like a down year for the conference, we will still have two #1 seeds  and are generally viewed as the #2 conference.  We will get at least 5 bids, probably 6.

Conference Results

2019:  9-9 ISU, 7-11 OU made tourney.  8-10 UT missed  (6/10 teams made it in)

2018: 9-9 TCU, 8-10 OU, 8-10 UT made tourney.  8-10 OSU, 8-10 Baylor missed  (7/10 teams made it in)

2017: 9-9 OSU, 8-10 KSU made tourney  (6/10 teams made it in)

2016: 9-9 Tech made tourney   (7/10 teams made it in)

2015: 8-10 UT, 8-10 OSU made tourney, 8-10 K-State missed (7/10 teams made it in)

2014: 9-9 Baylor, 8-10 OSU made tourney, 9-9 (17-16 overall) West Virginia missed  (7/10 teams made it in)

2013: 9-9 (23-14 overall) Baylor missed (NIT champs) (5/10 teams made it in)

2012: 9-9 Texas made tourney (6/10 teams made it in)

Working backwards from this, I don't agree that past performance of the conference as a whole is relevant to a discussion of whether various win-loss scenarios get this specific Texas team into this specific NCAA tournament field. That kind of past-performance benchmarking is useful for speculating conceptually in November-- "if Texas wins 20 games and goes .500 in conference, it will get in"-- but less so when we have so much firmer an idea of which 20 we might win and who we're up against to get in. FYI Lunardi says we're getting five; I don't see six unless we go crazy without stomping on OU's bubble case.

That's where I guess we're in agreement-- if Texas suddenly does a bunch of uncharacteristically good stuff, it can get into the NCAAs. I didn't say THAT couldn't happen. I had said that we're not close enough to get in with JUST a win over OU. OU is a marginal tournament team itself; beating them does almost nothing to improve our profile other than dragging another crab back into the bucket. 

I actually don't agree that winning out in the regular season automatically gets us in. It would make it close, it would get us a lot of attention, and I could be wrong, but I still think we're so far from in today, because of our terrible performance outside the B12, that we'd still need to do some work in the Big 12 tournament to cement a bid. 

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7 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

His fate has already been sealed. The only thing a tourney bid does for him is making it easier for us to offload him to a mid major team

I wish this were true.  I wish I could say I'm cautiously optimistic.

Unfortunately, if we get a bid, I think that gives our esteemed AD a reason to keep him.  I hope I'm wrong.

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Style of play[edit]

Smart's teams play an upbeat style of basketball known as "havoc." Smart described his "havoc" defensive philosophy during his introductory press conference as, "We are going to wreak havoc on our opponent's psyche and their plan of attack." On the court, the "havoc" defensive mindset is visible through the heavy use of the full court press and pressing after made baskets to disrupt opponents' timing of offensive sets. The Rams consistently maintained one of the most efficient and disruptive defenses in the nation, ranking 1st nationally in both turnovers and steals forced per possession from 2011-2014. Offensively, Smart-coached teams play uptempo, push the ball after misses, and run a weave-heavy motion offense.

Wikipedia does drugs

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Cunningham represents unselfish toughness Smart's program lacks

By  FUCK CHIP BROWN   17 hours ago

https://247sports.com/college/texas/Article/Texas-Longhorns-basketball-Shaka-Smart-Brock-Cunningham-NCAA-Tournament--144298354/

Quote

AUSTIN, Texas — After three straight wins, Texas' NCAA Tournament hopes — and perhaps' Shaka Smart’s tenure as coach — have taken a zombie-like path from chalk line to life support.

A 67-57 home victory Monday over suddenly reeling, 20th-ranked West Virginia (19-9, 7-8 Big 12) marked the first time this season Texas (17-11, 7-8) has defeated a ranked opponent.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi said during the Texas-WVU game if Texas could go 3-1 in its next four games (at Texas Tech, at OU, home against Oklahoma State and win a Big 12 tournament game), the Longhorns might find a way into the NCAA Tournament.

The Longhorns’ attempt to come back from the dead continues Saturday at 11 am CT at Texas Tech (18-10, 9-6), which lost at Oklahoma (17-11, 7-8) on Tuesday.

Monday's win over the Mountaineers, who handed Texas a 38-point beatdown in Morgantown back on Jan. 20, will only become a turning point for Texas if Smart finally realized he needs more dirty-work toughness on his team like that provided by redshirt freshman Brock Cunningham, who came up huge for UT in the final 3:37 of Monday's win over WVU. 

Instead of crumpling late in a close game like Texas did in home losses to Oklahoma, Kansas, LSU and Texas Tech this season, the Longhorns showed grit and fight - thanks in large part to two huge offensive rebounds and a blocked shot down the stretch by Cunningham to help UT seal the win over the Mountaineers.

“We’re gonna have to get on the stat crew, because I think Brock had more rebounds than he was credited with,” Smart said, accurately pointing out the stat crew missed Cunningham’s second offensive rebound in a single possession that resulted in a three-point play opportunity by Courtney Ramey, putting Texas up by nine (61-52) with 2:18 left.

Before the season, Smart called Cunningham, a 6-fo0t-6 power forward from Austin Westlake, one of the team’s biggest spark plugs in workouts because of his intensity, energy and willingness to do to the dirty work - playing defense and rebounding.

Then, the season started, and there were no meaningful minutes for Cunningham despite one humiliating loss after another - to Georgetown (82-66), at Providence (70-48), at Baylor (59-44), at home against OU (72-62), at WVU (97-59) and at Iowa State (81-52).

It only took lower back injuries to starters Jericho Sims and Gerald Liddell (both out indefinitely), a knee injury to starter Jase Febres, a heel bruise to starting guard Matt Coleman (missed UT’s win over TCU) and a case of strep throat to occasional starter Kamaka Hepa (missed UT’s win over WVU) for Smart to start giving meaningful minutes to Cunningham.

And by leaving Cunningham on the floor in the final four minutes of the West Virginia game, Smart and Longhorn Nation finally saw the grit, energy and toughness Smart had mentioned in the pre-season.

Why wasn’t a role for Cunningham developed and nurtured all season long? I’m not saying Cunningham, who has more fouls (21) than rebounds (11), is the key to the Longhorns’ success or failure. Far from it.

But Cunningham brings the kind of selflessness and toughness Smart and the Texas program have been lacking for Smart's entire five years.

Instead, Smart has often times rewarded the wrong players with the most minutes, causing his program to be defined by selfishness (Tevin Mack in UT's 11-22 season in 2016-17) and a lack of discipline (the multiple suspensions of Kerwin Roach from 2016-19).

Smart should use Cunningham's late-game heroics Monday night as an example and make a true commitment to developing a player like Cunningham, so his traits become contagious in the program. Cunningham should've been one of the first players off the bench, averaging about 15 minutes per game all season - not just in the last three contests.

Scott Drew has Baylor sitting atop college basketball this season, because he’s got three of the most selfless, tough, dirty-work players in the country (G MaCio Teague, F Freddie Gillespie and G Mark Vital).

Way too often this season, Smart has had five players on the floor who are all looking to score with their confidence (not to mention their defense and rebounding) rising and falling based on if shots are falling. And, by the way, Texas is ninth (out of 10) in the Big 12 in scoring offense, averaging just 64.6 points per game, and takes way too many 3-point shots (663 - second-most in the Big 12), especially late in close games, despite failing to connect (33.9 percent).

You can thrive with three players who can score in different ways with a couple players doing the dirty work - setting screens, hustling for loose balls, playing defense, rebounding and facilitating.

Right now, the key to the Horns’ three-game winning streak has been the smoldering shooting of Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones with different role players stepping up, such as Royce Hamm, Will Baker, Kai Jones and Cunningham.

The last three games, Ramey is averaging 20.7 points on 54.3 percent shooting and dominated UT’s victory at K-State, when he scored 26 points (including 21 in the first half) on 10-of-16 shooting, and led the team with five steals and six rebounds.

Meanwhile, Andrew Jones has averaged 15 points the last three games while hitting 11 of 19 from 3-point range (57.9).

Reserve freshman big man Will Baker of Austin Westlake stepped up huge in UT’s win over TCU, scoring 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting, including 4-of-6 from 3-point range.

Let’s see if the Horns can keep their oh-so-faint postseason hopes alive by playing with a sense of urgency and with the unselfish toughness exhibited by Cunningham in the final minutes of UT’s win over West Virginia on Monday.

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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10 minutes ago, 1leggedduck said:

What happens if by some miracle, we end up in the conference championship game? I do not think this is remotely possible, but what if?

we would have had to have beaten one of Kansas or Baylor on the way

in conjunction with a positive outcome in Norman, that would probably lift us into the NCAA tournament assuming we also lose to Tech but beat OSU at home

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12 minutes ago, cochamps said:

The same DeLoss Dodds who fired Abe Lemons to hire Weltlich?  Ok, fine.

Lemons use to jerk Dodds chain mocking him about being a former track coach.  Abe use to say how hard of job is that?  You just tell guys to run as fast as they can and stay to left.   Priceless

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Just picking up a discussion from a prior page, right now we're not one of the 27 teams Jerry Palm has listed on his bubble list, so it's worse than not being in the last 4 in/first 4 out/next 4 out group.

Lunardi has us at 77, meaning we're one spot out of the honor of being the bubble team least likely to get in. 

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27 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

Just picking up a discussion from a prior page, right now we're not one of the 27 teams Jerry Palm has listed on his bubble list, so it's worse than not being in the last 4 in/first 4 out/next 4 out group.

Lunardi has us at 77, meaning we're one spot out of the honor of being the bubble team least likely to get in. 

Again this is because they have us losing to both Tech and OU.  If we split those games and beat OSU we will have a really good shot at making the tournament if we don't shit our pants in the conference tournament.

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50 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Again this is because they have us losing to both Tech and OU.  If we split those games and beat OSU we will have a really good shot at making the tournament if we don't shit our pants in the conference tournament.

This is false.

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

This is false.

I wish it were.  I hope it is.  I'm not so sure.  Unfortunately.

While I never wish for us to lose any games in any sport, I will not be overly disappointed (or surprised) if we lose at least two of the next three.

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4 minutes ago, smwhorn said:

I wish it were.  I hope it is.  I'm not so sure.  Unfortunately.

While I never wish for us to lose any games in any sport, I will not be overly disappointed (or surprised) if we lose at least two of the next three.

Ugh, beating OU and Tech is always fun though. 

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our historically weak non conference has inflated our win total, but we seriously lack quality wins, and statistically we don't look very good on paper either. if the committee has a clue (and they do), then our W/L total at the end of the season will essentially not even matter to them, even if we ended up with 19 or 20 wins. we are currently not even in the conversation as far as bubble teams go, and short of winning four more games this year then i don't think we ever even enter that conversation. 

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