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fellside

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Everything posted by fellside

  1. Haven't had power in 41 hours. I'm pretty sure the attempt at a rolling blackout went bad and they fucked up the whole grid. A rolling blackout would be a welcome development. I just wish I had any kind of idea when I'd get power or what was being done. It's crazy how hard it is to get real information in 2021. The city doesn't even know what the issue is or when it will be fixed.
  2. If there's one thing I have always said about Pete Kwiatkowski, it's that Herman was better than Strong.
  3. Ash looked good year one. Orlando looked good year one. Bedford looked good year one. Diaz looked good year one. Then the Big 12 adjusts and we end up hating all of them. At this point I'm okay hiring a new one whenever possible.
  4. I don't really have an opinion other than that list is incredibly depressing.
  5. Listened to some conservative talk radio for the first time in over a decade. It's glorious. The combination of pure absurdly mixed with the depression is a comedy gold mine. Hearing Mark Levin ask himself "where's the evidence?" And answer "I don't have any evidence" like it was a good argument? Hearing that Rush apparently peddles Qanon level conspiracy theories? Chefs kiss.
  6. So if Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia and gets to 306 electoral votes, was 538 still wrong? Just checking. By the way I have no specific love for Nate Silver. But the Cloak Room mid election looks just like the football board when Texas is down by 7.
  7. I'm again going to disagree here. I don't think 538 was claiming Biden would win with 330 electoral votes. They were saying there were far more scenarios where Biden wins than he loses. That is because Biden needed a few swing states and Trump needed almost all of them.
  8. What I'm saying is that we have no evidence that the model is far off at the moment. If you want to be pissed about polls in Iowa and Texas, be pissed off. But 538 had dozens of scenarios where Biden lost those states and still won the election. It's important to read what one criticizes.
  9. If a guy says someone has an 89% chance of winning and you interpret that to mean it's going to be a blowout, it says more about your understanding of probability than it does the guy himself. Go look at the 538 forecast and you will see numerous scenarios as close as the one we're seeing unfold. Also, there's a very decent chance Biden wins several of these states as mail in votes get counted.
  10. So a dude says in 89 out of 100 scenarios Biden wins. We're probably about to see one of those 89 scenarios. Dude is dumb. Got it.
  11. I think Silver is saying most of the county is in. What's left is the actual city of Green Bay. So it will be bluer than 14k+ for Trump.
  12. I think it says something about the personalities on Surly that y'all freak me out into an anxiety attack and Karl fucking Rove somehow calms me down and convinces me Biden still has a very real shot.
  13. I get that most of tonight isn't a surprise based on the polls. I didn't really expect Texas, NC or Ohio. The thing I don't get is how Wisconsin is even close. The polls were consistently Biden by 7-11. How could they be that wrong that often?
  14. Horrible. I saw a dozen fan concepts better.
  15. Just voted for Biden in Tarrant County. Took about 3 minutes. I have three siblings who are all conservative evangelicals and each has a conservative evangelical spouse. All 6 of them will be voting for a democrat in a presidential election for the first time. My Mom was born in the 50s and I believe this will be her first time as well. I'm curious if Biden can win Tarrant county. Hillary lost it by about 8 points but 3% went to Gary Johnson.
  16. Do we really have to motion Whittington in every single play? Maybe we wouldn't have a false start if we didn't have to wait for the exact same formation and motion over and over and over again.
  17. It's almost like Dak is really good and has been for a while and the people who say otherwise don't know anything about football.
  18. -offside call where the ref correctly called false start then changed it -pass interference they correctly called then took back -holding call they correctly called then took back
  19. Texas needs to win by two scores because I don't feel good about leaving it up to officiating in the fourth quarter.
  20. Because Fox financially benefits when the Big 12 is good. Klatt sounded as sad about OU losing last weekend as Brando and Tillman did about UT winning. Klatt wants the Big 12 and Big Ten to compete.
  21. Pretty excited to see Smith get some of the screens and hitches Schooler and Money have been getting. Despite his tds last year, I feel like we've yet to see the elusiveness and speed he showed in his film.
  22. Do the facts about navigators changing their form show up in later books? Because I have no memory of that from reading Dune.
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