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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. He legitimately looked nothing like he did when he coached at Texas even when he was still coaching at Texas.
  2. My prediction: I’ll make some asinine post comparing this year’s team to some shitty Astros team from years past, like how I astutely compared last year’s team to the 2006 Astros. Let’s ruin everybody else’s entire goddamned summer and fall and win the whole goddamned thing again.
  3. Fangraphs has him ranked #79 overall as a 50 FV prospect - meaning an average MLB starter. Their #39-100 are all considered 50 FV prospects, so that could be considered a tier, with the difference between any of them being very minor, perhaps negligible (but rankings get clicks). I think that’s fair. He’s 25…top prospect lists are always going to be dominated at the top by the young, tooled-up guys or the highly-drafted college players who are big-league ready. Anyway, one thing I really like about the Fangraphs prospect list is that they include a “probability of outcomes” chart for each guy, which provides more context (not sure how they’re calculated, but I’d assume it’s based on age, performance in minors across key metrics like K rate, etc). For Diaz, they have him as about a 25% chance of being a 50/55, 15% chance of being a 60/65 (all-star-ish), and about a 10% chance of being a 70+ (MVP-ish). That feels about right to me, and if you told me right now he’ll be an average MLB starter, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
  4. Dirden is an interesting guy. He mashed in AA last year but struggled in 32 AAA games (73 wRC, 28% K rate). Then had the big spring.
  5. Pena makes outs 70% of the time. Bregman makes outs 63% of the time. Their power is a wash. Do we want to start the game with an out less frequently or more frequently? Put another way, do we want Yordan/Tucker/Abreu to bat with runners on base less frequently or more frequently? It’s really not complicated. Yet here we are.
  6. Metric is park-adjusted.
  7. Last 2 seasons: Webb: 8.3 fWAR Cole: 8.5 fWAR
  8. We really need a rep emoji that somehow conveys “I really didn’t want to laugh at this but I did.”
  9. I agree w 2019 WS being the biggest disappointment. That team was so, so good. Last year took a little sting off of it, though. I’d put 86 NLCS next. Probably 80 NLCS after that, but I was 3 and have no recollection of it. The Oilers game was obviously shitty, but we were accustomed to their underachievement. And while that team was good, it wasn’t all-time great like the ‘19 Astros. I dont specifically remember the Phi Slamma Jamma loss, though I remember how fun that team seemed. I guess I just care way more about the Astros than any other team.
  10. I just hope Bijan gets picked by a team with an elite QB. It sucked when Edgerrin James went to play with Manning (and then Kurt Warner later in his career) while Ricky played with Billy Joe Tolliver and Aaron Brooks and Jay Fiedler and the like.
  11. PAC CEOs/Commissioners:
  12. I did love Bourn though. He had a few really good years. He was fun, but yeah, that era was dreadful.
  13. Bregman / Pena / Yordan / Tucker / Abreu / Brantley / Chas / Maldy / 2B (I’d have Yordan 2nd but I know Dusty won’t.)
  14. Ok…I guess my expectations were around 95-98 before the Altuve injury, and have now been reduced by 3 or so (92-95). Perhaps I’m expecting more regression from the starting pitching than you are. Incremental wins over 90 tend to matter a lot.
  15. You can, but the longer you tread, the less likely it becomes.
  16. Pena can’t be expected to be better just because he’s not a rookie anymore; I need to see a big jump in plate discipline numbers to expect anything more than average production out of him. I’m not saying this is no longer a playoff team; just that your expectations for the 2023 season should be significantly reduced with Altuve out for 1/2 the season (hopefully less, but I’d be surprised to see him before the AS break). I think your 97.5 W number was about right before yesterday; I think it’s more like 94.5 now - still good, but significantly less good, and reasonably likely the difference between playing an extra playoff round or not. (Not to mention that we are deprived the joy of watching Jose Altuve play baseball for 3 months.)
  17. I mean, if you want to intentionally reduce the odds of scoring runs, sure, they’re great leadoff options. It is completely irrational to give these guys the most ABs on the team. If you want to increase the odds of scoring runs, which I’d assume would be the goal in every single game, go with someone more likely to reach base.
  18. 115? That would be like a 99.9th percentile outcome with everyone healthy all year, which already wasn’t happening (McCullers, Brantley, Yordan) even before Altuve’s thumb. A 50th percentile outcome - with everyone healthy - is probably about 95. The o/u on Altuve’s games played is what - 80? That’s 2.5 fewer wins. How about Yordan? 100? Another 2 or so. We’re going to assume the 5 starters aren’t going to miss a start, aren’t going to regress at all? o/u on McCullers IP - 50? So now we’re looking at more like 90 provable wins. (Yes I’m making these numbers up on the spot, but they seem like fair estimates, no?) Each of these injuries decreases the odds and brings the probable W total down. The season outlook is much worse than it was 24 hours ago - I think that’s unarguable. Can they still win the West? Sure. Is it significantly less likely? Absolutely.
  19. My man…that just became significantly less likely.
  20. People are drawn to belief in conspiracies because it makes them feel better. It explains away something that they don’t like, it excuses them from any sort of responsibility. Conspiracy theories create “bad guys,” characterized as puppet masters, at whom theorists can direct their anger. And because conspiracies carry no burden of proof, they are malleable and can fit any narrative one might make up. They’re for hyperemotional, discontented, irrational dipshits. When you keep this in mind, the prevalent sentiment on texags makes a lot more sense.
  21. Yeah that’s probably about 50 fewer hits for 2023.
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