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Bobby_Batronic

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Everything posted by Bobby_Batronic

  1. I get it. You hate all things associated with the current administration. I made no assessment of our own organizational discipline. You can point out the gaffes with Signal, and I would point out that no one saw the B2 raid coming when it did. Iran moving what material it had produced isn’t some 4D chess move. It was the obvious thing to do once they realized that their air defenses were useless and that their nuclear sites were targeted. The very fact that they were moved at all suggests the Iranians weren’t as confident in the bomb proof nature of their facilities as many on this board or knew at the very least that they’d have to dig it out. Supposing that that material did in fact make its way out of Fordow then there is still value in destroying or at least significantly delaying the use of those and other facilities for the foreseeable future. You don’t just throw you hands up and say “Fuck it” if one cow makes it out of the barn. Lastly, it doesn’t take a lot of creative signals intelligence or satellite imagery to determine if a lot of concrete rebar etc is being ordered, sent to and delivered to places like Fordow or Natanz.
  2. You have to know that communications are being monitored at all times in the region, most likely everywhere actually, and some higher up asked about the condition of the facility after the strike and the reply was “Everything is perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?” Between satellite imagery of the activity around the sites and recovered conversations about the work to be done they’ll know in short order how effective the strikes were. I doubt the Iranians are sophisticated enough or have the organizational discipline to keep it quiet for long.
  3. I misunderstood. I thought it was 6 down two ventilation shafts. The JTAC told me 200 feet of reinforced concrete. He either revealed something he shouldn’t have or conflated numbers after being out of the service for a while.
  4. I just take it as a fact that as assuredly as Trump will claim total victory that a news outlet will find someone to say we barley scratched their anchor. The MOP is designed to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete. It doesn’t explode until it comes to a stop. No mean feat of engineering imoho. So 6 in a row isn’t nothing. I am curious as to how much those holes filling back in after the blast mitigated the penetration of the next bomb. They were definitely aiming for ventilation shafts. And hit them repeatedly.
  5. That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared. Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack.
  6. I think even the laymen can look at the picture of the facilities bombed by the US and understand that none of them are going to be up and humming in 30-60 days even if it’s just a matter of digging out the tunnels leading to allegedly unharmed delicate nuclear facilities. If that assessment is true then Iran already has the fuel on hand, is working to create the nuclear device itself and the suggestion that they are/were very close to having a working weapon is valid. Trump claims total destruction. Unnamed sources alleged to be familiar with the damage assessment say 30 days to the status quo. It would be wise to split the difference and suggest that total destruction did not occur, but that their program has been knocked on it’s ass for some time to come. Again, activity around those sites in the comes days and weeks will be very revealing about the destruction involved, and first blush leaked battle assessments for the purpose of grabbing headlines won’t be needed.
  7. It was mentioned the morning after the strike, and the suggestion is that the published bomb load might be a space available problem and not an actual payload issue problem. I just hope none of the B2 pilots binged on Taco Bell before the mission brief or Operation Mid Flight Hammer may have gone down.
  8. I was very concerned about them shutting down the Strait when this kicked off in earnest. I think that the fact that their regional neighbors gave tacit approval to outright support, and that their global allies could barely muster a strongly worded letter caught them by surprise. They’re alone in this and risk the ire of not just the west, but China and parts of the world dependent on that oil supply. It is easy to play religious fanatic when no one is lazing your house for a bomb strike. Less so when you can hear clicking of the control fins each night. I hope they settle for limited, face saving retaliation and then come back to the table with whoever will talk with them. To do otherwise invites total destruction. I was also thinking about their countless drones and small boats if they were to attempt to block the Strait. Allegedly, Israel effectively hacked and co-opted much of their air defense network in addition to the traditional SAM suppression and avoidance methods. I wonder if their localized drone control could be similarly defeated. I know that flying drones too close to US Navy ships often results in the loss of control there. That still leaves water born meat bombs. I dunno. We’re gonna find out sooner than later.
  9. There’s no national appetite for a ground war. I doubt there’s one in the WH either. I don’t know if the Iranians were truly getting close or not. I suspect the ease with which the Israelis destroyed Iran’s air defenses a few months ago led to people in power dreaming big dreams. Namely a denuclearized and defanged Iran. Maybe even regime change. 10/7 is then used as casus belli. It will be evident based on activity after the strike as to whether it was effective or not. Time will tell. The question is how Iran responds. I’m sure they will attempt military strikes. I hope they do not choose terror. History says why not both?
  10. More than a few countries took note, and quite a few intelligence staffs are working OT to assess if their own facilities are safe. Yes, there is some value in the infomercial approach.
  11. I’m sure the order for more was processed the instant these dumplings left the depot.
  12. The stated bomb load of a B-2 is 40k lbs so either CNN is wrong or we’ve been sandbagging what it can carry.
  13. Spoke to a former Herc driver and JTAC about why the B2 has to drop the MOP, and why they couldn’t just load it in the back of an Israeli C-130. It’s an energy question. The C-130 can only haul a load that heavy into the mid 20’s and would have to slow to roughly 130 knots to dump it out of the back. This robs the weapon of speed and altitude to convert into the energy required to penetrate deeply as a bunker buster before it explodes after coming to a stop. The B2 can drop it from much higher and at 3 times the speed. Also, the control surfaces on the bomb deflect in an all or nothing manner. No small corrections from the fins. Therefore, the higher speed means less energy is robbed from the bomb as it course corrects on the way to its target.
  14. That is the world’s fattest Amy.
  15. The slats can be extended with the flaps retracted. You can’t take off that way, but maybe you could possibly retract them that way on a 787. The bus has an auto retract feature on takeoff in Flaps 1+S ( Flaps 1+ slats). Not sure what the 787 does.
  16. You can take it to the bank that the Iranians would be touting pictures of the wreckage of they had shot down an Adir.
  17. Personally, I give us one chance in three.
  18. The pagers tended to be in a pocket at crotch level so there’ll be very limited goat ravaging for some time to come.
  19. They only have 1000ish ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel. 850 now, and that’s not factoring losses to stored munitions and missiles on launchers to Israeli air strikes. They’re probably not far from bumping up against whatever they consider to be an adequate strategic reserve.
  20. Doesn’t mean his choice of tactics were wrong in that instance. Just his choice of employer.
  21. No chance for a flap misstep with 10 different detents. Gracious.
  22. “If your quarry goes to ground, leave no ground to go to.” -The Operative I can only imagine that the Hamas fighters weren’t as as precisely located as the bedroom of an Iranian military leader. They’re in this or under this building is likely the best targeting information they had in a much more fluid situation. Hamas’ habit of placing their infrastructure and bases under civilian sites and hospitals makes rooting them out problematic. Thats not excusing the destruction of whole city blocks, but perhaps the reasoning behind their choice of munitions and targeting.
  23. Don’t mess with the Zohan.
  24. The methodical nature has been something to behold. They’ve largely eliminated Iran’s neighboring proxies and or prevented them from responding, and now they’ve started on the main course. One wonders if the IAF’s destruction of the Iranian air defense networks and missiles was a warning shot, or merely the first blow followed by a pause to collect itself for the next mission.
  25. It could if the startle factor precluded their raising the gear as the plane leveled off and power reduced drastically. Or EGPWS procedures could have made that a non factor. Gear and flaps generally stay in the selected position for that and Windshear escape procedures until out of the situation. That’s my problem with that theory. It’s hard to see the RAT. It appears to be down, but it’s not hard to hear it, and it sounds like it’s deployed as the plane flies past.
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