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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Some minorities, yes. There is evidence that Hispanics like progressive economic policies. Bernie Sanders did well in states with large Hispanic populations during the primary, like California and Nevada. South Texas' Henry Cuellar came damn close to losing his seat to a progressive in his primary. Cristina Ramirez almost made the run-off for TX Senate by doing well in South Texas. She was nonexistent everywhere else. Edit: The senate primary in Hidalgo county was won my Sema Hernandez, who is even further to the left than Cristina. Considering she lost by 5%, Kara Eastman in NE-2 ran at least that many points behind Biden there (I can't find presidential results from that district). Katie Porter easily won reelection in CA-45, a district that had been red for a very long time before 2018. Then again, she's a rock star.
  2. Joe Manchin flipping to the Rs would be the worst idea ever. As a Republican, he would be just another cog in an obstructionist Senate going along on Mitch's ride. As the conservative Democrat in a 50/50 Senate, he becomes the most powerful person in the entire chamber, and West Virginia vaults to being the most consequential state in the union. He would have Schumer's ear 24/7. This only applies until 2024, after which I think he retires.
  3. I feel relieved, but exhausted. The last four years have really dominated my psyche. I can relate to whomever it was who said that enjoying college football has been hard these past few years. My kids are turning 2 and 5 soon. Years from now, I want to be able to reflect on this time as being about them growing up and me as a new father, and not think about the state of this country. I'm pissed about the utter failure down-ballot, mostly because I believe climate change is the real deal and we won't get shit done about it the next 2 years, at least. I guess I should be feeling better. Time to find a replay of Joe's victory speech.
  4. On another subject, the decision by many (most?) Democratic campaigns to stop door-knocking was probably an unwise overreaction. It can be done safely.
  5. Did this swing to the right by Hispanics in Texas extend to down-ballot candidates or just the top of the ticket? I decided to look at election results in the three border CDs in South Texas compared to 4 years ago. Unfortunately for Democrats, these races also massively lurched to the right by about 15 points this time around, suggesting that it isn't just Trump driving the trend and that there is reason to expect a more evenly split Hispanic vote going forward. CD Democrat 2016 2020 Margin Diff 28th Cuellar +35 +19 16 15th Gonzalez +19 +3 15 34th Vela +25 +11 14
  6. Not everyone votes down-ballot. This has been an issue with Dem voters in particular and is why Texas got rid of straight-ticket voting.
  7. This. Many people on both sides simply don't want to admit just how good Donald Trump was in driving turnout among his supporters and translating that to the rest of the GOP ticket. All of us were floored by the turnout nationwide but lots of us mistakenly believed it was predominately on the Dem side. I don't think Dem enthusiasm dipped much, if any, compared to 2018. Losses among some minorities, although a clear warning sign, were replaced by gains among white suburbanites and older voters. The uptick in GOP turnout due to Trump being on the ballot was more than enough to beat back a possible blue wave and regain control of gerrymandered congressional and state house districts. The notion that he was a drag on candidates down ballot simply wasn't true. We need to put Biden's pending win over Trump into some perspective. I think time will tell us that it was no small feat.
  8. Biden coming out with the first public announcement tonight, optimistic but preaching patience, was brilliant. Knowing Trump, he no doubt feels he has to say something, but anything blasting the electoral process won't look good in court.
  9. The fact that they also claim to be feeling good about EV turnout in Nevada is a strong indication that they're lying. Clark county already overtook its total 2016 vote with Election Day still to come.
  10. There are Lib and Green party candidates in the race pulling ~2 and 4% respectively, which will make it tough for anyone to break 50%. Ranked choice voting then kicks in and that should elevate Gideon more than Collins. The Green candidate has actually told her supporters to put Gideon down as their #2.
  11. Shit, I'm talking short-term low hanging fruit and y'all are freewheeling your wish lists. I held back from my 2nd amendment repeal.
  12. Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order: 1. Covid stimulus 2. HR-1 / new voting rights act 3. Universal background checks + red flag law Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022. Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.
  13. Right? and it wasn't even a black Hitler.
  14. Unless it is an N95 mask, it won't offer much protection for the wearer. Most masks really only offer protection from the wearer. It only takes one asshole...
  15. I'd be shocked if a majority of the money Republican candidates are playing with this cycle didn't collectively come from the coastal blue states. California is full of rich Republicans who throw gobs of money at the national party because of a lack of any real game in town. I'd imagine every blue state on the East Coast is similar. The difference this go-around is that Trump and the GOP have pissed off entire categories of the upper-middle class (mostly in these same blue states) and they have either switched allegiances or are finally opening up their wallet.
  16. Her new tweet has more than twice the number of likes and generated more than five times the amount of replies compared to her July tweet. For a candidate without widespread name recognition, that isn't nothing.
  17. All of this. I have no interest in digging up dirt on this woman. No Democratic senator should have to hunt for any excuse to reject her confirmation. This must solely be about the stolen pick from 2016. The appearance of such blatant partisan politics will resonate with voters much more than culture wars, civil rights issues, or any stories of past transgressions. Everyone outside of the maga base is sick of that shit.
  18. This is only the second time in recorded history in which a sentence about Trump has the word "embarrassment" in reference to someone else. I'm positive you accounted for the only other instance back in 2017.
  19. It's understandable that spirits are low after hearing Trump and his sycophants gaslight the country for four straight nights. It's psychologically draining even for the most optimistic of us. People wonder why elections are held at all in autocratic countries like Belarus, Russia, and Turkey if they are just going to get fucked with. It's because fucking with the outcome is the point. It's psychological warfare. It's a show of strength. Trump is well aware of this. He took the opportunity to openly flaunt norms and spout lies that the media has no real appetite to fact check to the necessary extent. Because he can. 40% of us are stupid or selfish or hateful enough to eat it up. We're losing sleep what the other 15% will think.
  20. The ballot doesn't need to arrive and be counted by election day. It only needs to be postmarked by then. See California 2018 and the trickle of ballots arriving until late November. There's still a chance for shenanigans if the results are not decided by the time the Electoral College votes in December. We may be glad for the lame duck period.
  21. Only an upper-atmosphere nuclear explosion is capable of generating a long range EMP that could effectively cripple most of the country. Smaller scale non-nuclear weaponry would be restricted to battlefields and local theaters of hot conflict. Somebody educate me if this is not the case. I don't see this as being anything other than a fancy name for a nuclear attack. Therefore, due to MAD, it has as much a chance of happening as a more conventional nuclear exchange. If we see ballistic missiles headed our way, we won't bother to wait and see if these warheads are meant to turn our cities to rubble or just fry a bunch of circuit boards.
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