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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Oh come on. Mayor Pete said it himself. Who cares what the Rs think? If a moderate wins the nomination, they'll call him/her a socialist. If a progressive wins, ditto. They screamed socialism from the rooftops in 2018 and it didn't change that election from being a good one for the Ds. The boy who cried wolf, yada yada... Obama won Iowa in 2008. Hillary won Iowa (barely) in 2016. New Hampshire is less predictive for the Ds but has been nails for the Rs.
  2. I thought Hillary was the safe choice in 2016. Whoops.
  3. Quite a few things have pissed me off over the last 4 years or so. But this is hilarious.
  4. Bernie beat Hillary there by over 20 points in 2016. Lots of bros in New Hampshire.
  5. The state of Iowa and the caucus process itself is tailor made for Pete. No close seconds... he needs to place first at the end of counting or he's in some real trouble going forward. It's all uphill from here. For opposite reasons, Biden's demise is being greatly exaggerated. He should still be the favorite to win the nomination. Unfortunately for him, this result doesn't make him look good as the eventual nominee. A fourth place finish in IA shouldn't give anyone confidence that he can win back the Midwest/Rust Belt. I don't buy arguments that this was a disappointing night for Bernie. The progressive vote is being split between him and Warren, and he should do even better than Liz in states that aren't so white. I expect him to win once the vote is fully counted. Only haters can see any downside in placing first against this crowded a field. As for Liz, I was disappointed at first but I'm coming around to thinking the night was a decent showing for her. She should get a bump from the last third left to count. Klob, Yang, and the others who campaigned in Iowa should drop out. It's a four person race, with Bloomberg replacing Pete by Super Tuesday.
  6. Yang might pardon Trump if elected https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331
  7. Yang might pardon Trump if elected https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331
  8. Something worth pointing out, as much of the hand-wringing on this page over immigration is from folks who lean left: most newly arriving Chinese are conservative. Unlike in past decades, few are political or economic refugees. They tend to have money, which they gained in a society with rampant nepotism and inequality. They'll naturally gravitate to similar entities, i.e. Trump and the GOP. That said, keep bringing them in. Their kids will grow up to be just as liberal as most other Asian-Americans.
  9. Beto won in 9 districts that ended up electing a Republican state representative in 2018. 1) That was a lot of ticket splitting. 2) Goddamn Ted Cruz is unpopular. I mean, holy shit. I can't fathom he actually runs for reelection in 2024. White House or bust for him, I think. 3) It's going to be hard to claw away the 10 seats needed to win the State House, if Beto only managed to win in 9 of them. I'm trying not to get my hopes up.
  10. In a heavily Dem-leaning election nationally, Zerwas won reelection here in 2018 by almost nine points. This is not a purple district. For 2020, focus your attention further south to the 26th district: open seat that the GOP won by only 5 in 2018.
  11. The Rs historically have been masters at the long game, but some of their recent actions look more like desperation to me. The recent laser-focus on the judiciary, a real bulwark against a liberalizing government and population, suggests the power brokers are aware that they are in electoral trouble long-term and looking for ways to maintain control after they've left office. Please, God, let that be true.
  12. Then it goes to a brokered convention. What happens then if the progressives, collectively, have the majority? When do the superdelegates swoop in?
  13. So beating Ole Miss got them to 6-6 and a bowl, which only temporarily extended Moorhead? Is that the connection? Or did one rival replacing a coach prompt the other to do the same?
  14. I can't keep up. Who did Leach replace at Miss St? I'm looking to validate that tweet in my mind.
  15. Hey, I'm still getting used to Garbers being good. This was the best game of his career.
  16. I like Garbers but I'd take Patterson over him in a heartbeat.
  17. The Cal offense is getting me excited for next season. It's been a few years since I could say that.
  18. Those numbers aren't earth-shattering for a third party candidate in a presidential election and they are not why Clinton lost. It's moot anyway in the case of Michigan, where sore loser laws would prevent Tulsi from appearing on the ballot as an independent.
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