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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. (Knock-knock) (30-something frazzled female answers) Hi _____ . I'm volunteering for the Beto O'Rourke campaign for US Senate! Have you gotten a chance to vote by any chance? No, but I'm going to --- so I'm watching TV and Ted Cruz is everywhere! Where are the Beto ads?! Saying he's for open borders, and ... it's just non-stop Cruz with his LIES!! What is the campaign doing with 38 million dollars?! So... you said you are going to vote. When do -- You all are going to Lose! Even Lizzie Pannil Fletcher is all over the TV. Where is Beto? Cruz is such an easy target! Talk about ____ ! (can't remember) I think I saw that ad. (might have been a little fib) Well I didn't! What channels are you watching? Oh, ESPN... football, and HGTV. Well, I'm glad I didn't give any more money than I did because you all are going to lose! So you are going to- No - um, see ya (Shuts door abruptly) *** She makes a good point, but who under 65 watches HGTV?
  2. The Pubs would rather the seat be empty than filled with a Dem. Their voters know that too. Another R put in his place won't be a real incumbent and will be vulnerable in 2020.
  3. 782,000+ doors knocked on since 10/13. The campaign has set the lofty goal of knocking on an additional 400k this weekend. I got my 6 hour shift planned for today.
  4. I believe those hours are being extended this week, which is good. The theme of the thread had evolved into reading the tea leaves about voting patterns so far. I wanted to throw this caveat out there as it is probably affecting those numbers. Expect more young voters casting ballots this weekend and next week.
  5. I have to disagree about the 8-5 hours. They're crap if you are a working person, especially one with kids who need to be dropped off and picked up from school or daycare. That's asking many to cut work short by an hour or more. Naturally, this impacts certain demographics (younger voters) more than others, and thins may account for some of the voting patters we've seen so far.
  6. Her cozying up to Trump following his election was a fatal error for any future presidential run. I can see Dotus tweeting after an early televised debate "I've always admired Tulsi Gabbard! A very nice woman but the rest of the Dems treat her so badly! Sad!" and that will be the end of that. I agree that she could consider switching parties if the White House is her true aspiration.
  7. New territory isn't that bad. It's a middle-aged (mid 90's) neighborhood by Sugar Land standards with a sizable population of white Boomer empty-nesters and a sprinkling of olds. My precinct in the northeast of NT went for Trump by 6 points, IIRC. It's certainly diverse, though. You're thinking of paTelfair, a real Sri Kulkarni stronghold. Drive through and notice the yard signs. I put them there myself. With permission, of course. Correct, but Indian Americans break hard for their guy, if they happen to have one in the race. They do. Kulkarni will win the IA vote by 70 points, at minimum. He's been all over the ethnic south and east Asian radio and TV stations giving interviews and has interviews and ad buys in all the Asian language and English language Asian cultural rags around town. He counts Hindi and Chinese among the 6 languages he speaks. The dude isn't shy about grabbing that Asian American vote. He'll need the big turnout of minorities and professionals in Fort Bend to offset what will likely be tough sledding in Brazoria County, Shadow Creek Ranch aside. If, IF he can pull it off next month, the seat will be his until he gets bored with it. He's as likely to win as Beto, if not moreso.
  8. House: 228 - 207 D Senate: 51 - 49 R (tiebreaker: ND, NV flip)
  9. More maths. A canvassing session is 50 doors. So that's been 11,600 separate sessions, probably by around 3 to 4 thousand volunteers statewide. That is only GOTV since 10/13, and doesn't include the voter ID phase which had gone on for about 9 months prior.
  10. Beto campaign GOTV numbers, weekend wrap-up edition. 580,339 doors knocked on as of Monday morning. Over 100k knocked on yesterday alone. FYI, those are total knocks. In my experience, 50 to 70% aren't home or refuse. In most of those cases flyers are dropped off at the door. So that's at least 175,000 actual conversations held and up to 400,000 flyers handed out. We should be at 800k by next weekend and over 1 million after next weekend. My guess is that 1.8 million total doors knocked will be the final number by 11/5, well short of the 4.4M goal but an unprecedented effort in the state of Texas regardless.
  11. He might have had a case had he not made the automation claim. A campaign staffed so many volunteers doesn't need to robo-text.
  12. You both need to stop fretting and pick up the phone and make some calls, or head to your nearest campaign office and start knocking on doors. Then, you need to get ready to do it all over again two years from now. Beto is one of the better ones, for sure, but lots of Dems across the country are raising shitloads of money and thousands of people are volunteering for the first time ever. Trump and the rest of the GOP are the real motivators.
  13. The Republican governors in the northeast and mid-Atlantic (MA, VT, NH, MD) probably qualify as not licking the Orange Taint. At the national level, the only one I can think of who isn't on his/her way out is maybe Mitt Romney.
  14. Beto GOTV as of midday Saturday: 392,000+ doors knocked on statewide since last weekend . That's cool, but only 9% of their goal of 4.46 million knocks by election day. A lofty goal, but not impossible. Fort bend HQ has cell phones to give to block walkers if they don't have their own. Chargers as well. Bottom line: Beto doesn't need your money anymore. He needs your time. GOTV map: https://win.betofortexas.com
  15. The state-to-state variance of Hispanics politically is particularly striking. There's California, where they're out for blood against the Rs, who have fucked with them once too many. Then there are the Cubans in Florida, hypocritically staunchly anti-immigration. Then there's Texas.
  16. I was just going to post this. Good day for the Dems.
  17. There's been a dearth of polling out of ND, since like forever.
  18. This. Well I'm glad to hear that we've finally pulled out of Afganistan and are no longer killing Yemenis alongside the Saudis.
  19. Throw out the Sienna College/NYT poll, as it's clearly an outlier. Now it's a more manageable 5 point swing that can be explained by his Kav endorsement. I think voters, especially moderates, want to see contrast in candidates, so I think you're reasoning is correct. It has been reported that many volunteers left his campaign following his announcement. He can't afford to lose any door-knockers if he wants to attract these people. I wouldn't be surprised either if some liberals or progressives were turned off by his support for Kav and plan on staying home. It was a mistake. I hope future Dems running in Red Country take heart and learn from his error.
  20. It's always so noticeable when someone can't quite keep the family drama private.
  21. Maybe. Then again, good answers to these questions could help sway undecided voters or even the rare Cruz lean. Keep in mind that Pinocchio isn't there for a rebuttal. The Cruz campaign already screwed up in turning a debate into a nationally televised town hall. If they did plant any of these questions, then they are even bigger idiots than I thought.
  22. The Pubs' message is nationalized. "Supreme Court, Pelosi, George Soros, MS-13, grwahrrr!" This is great for them for the highest level races (Senate) but declines precipitously in effectiveness as you go down-ballot. Even at the Congressional level, more targeted approaches that factor in local politics should hopefully get a lot of Dems elected. Let's cross our fingers that it also pays dividends further down ballot in state and local-level races. I agree with your scenario, but I don't think this will be bad for Trump. Evidence points to Trump doing better in the polls the more he can stay out of the news. The Kavanaugh hearing and passage of the tax cuts are really the only events of his presidency where he saw a bump in the polls during and following their occurrence. Everything else that has come in the news cycle has hurt him. Independents are driving his approval rating now that the D's and R's are all dug in. I'll go a step further. If his shit-show rallies become passe, they will be yet another of his worst traits to be normalized within American politics. That's bad for us all. If he gets reelected, this and the larger subject of voter fatigue would have been a big reason why, despite any problems it causes with Republicans down-ballot.
  23. I thought the hire of Beau Baldwin as OC was a slam dunk. Instead, it has been astonishingly disappointing so far. It's been the play of the defense that has kept me from including Wilcox in that opinion.
  24. Let's not give Waller County too much credit. Better than the alternative, for sure, but it really took the weight of two nearby congresspersons as well as a Rachel Maddow expose to get this corrected?
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