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tokamak

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by tokamak

  1. 46 minutes ago, victory88 said:

    I think Texas clearly has a strategy and has success in the portal and how they distribute NIL.  With that said, this year is a year where we are 1-2 players away from making a run for a title.  I would think it would be the time to over spend to make the run if that’s is what’s needed but it’s not my money they are giving away.  After all the talk about having a war chest and the snippets about waiting for big names to enter and that Texas wouldn’t be beat out… seems we were beat out on all the big name DTs and all of it came down to money.   Market value is what the market sets and clearly other schools are spending more setting the price for players like Toila, Williams, Nolen, Alexander, etc.  Perhaps the coaches feel good about developing the young guys, but I hope we don’t look back in a few months and regret not spending dollars on a good NT which is a clear weakness on an otherwise stout roster.  

    I think it's a lot more complicated than "we really need player X and it's going to cost $Y, can we do that?" Going out and getting one guy for big money has the potential to be very awkward in the locker room, and that has to be managed as well. Especially if that player is not a QB.

    • Hook 'Em 7
  2. 26 minutes ago, Poester said:

    So, are we searching the bargain bin for DT’s at this point? 

    I dug back through the thread a little bit and Bobby/Gerry had said that we would have interest in Derrick Harmon out of Michigan State if Williams ended up elsewhere. He's a pure mercenary - entered the portal in December, Sparty scrambled to put together an NIL deal to keep him, but he re-entered this spring anyway. He grades out well on PFF for what that's worth. We'd need to get him on campus pronto, he's already started visiting other places (CU and USC so far).

    https://247sports.com/player/derrick-harmon-46078903/college-268838/

  3. Time for me to re-up. Where do we think prices are going to go? They appear to be on the high side right now.

    Should I lock in the lowest long-term price I can find, or pay a little extra to get a low cancellation fee? On PtC, Chariot has a 36-month plan with a $49 cancellation fee, which seems crazy. The per kWh price is a little spicy though.

  4. 1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

    What they’re telling us is they know of no reason why Texas can’t win the recruitment. The NIL is there. The depth chart space is there. The academics are there. 

    They’re not offering up their own good vibes though, and they usually do when they have a positive inkling. 

     

    Do you think that the OU offer to the little brother is a factor here?

  5. 1 hour ago, Grimas said:

    I'm not sure Protestingpropertytaxes.com is still alive - I just put in my address and it just spins...  (And I had paid for a yearly report but haven't gotten one this year...

    Through Google I found jubally.com which seems to be offering a similar service. Not an endorsement, I haven't used them.

  6. 16 hours ago, Pimphand said:

    Don't get me wrong I hope he makes the superstar turn this year and I would love nothing more than for him to go #1 overall..... I just think it's a tremendous leap given his injury history and his jekyll/hyde tendencies.  I will be happy if he goes top 15 and opens the door for Arch Madness.

    If an unbiased 3rd party mock draft site puts him #1 pre-season then they should be discounted as absolute frauds.

    I don't think it's a "tremendous" leap at all. I think #1 overall is definitely projecting some growth for him in 2024, but IMO you don't have to squint your eyes too hard to see it. I think you're underrating him a bit as a Texas fan because we've watched every minute of the growing pains so far.

    Consider all the following data points:

    1. His arm talent is elite and always has been.
    2. He's young. This season will be essentially his true junior year. He turns 22 just a couple weeks before the 2025 draft.
    3. By the time of the draft, he will have 30+ starts against high level competition.
    4. Sark and Milwee have a documented history of developing QBs.
    5. He more than held his own against top competition as a true sophomore last year. Quinn's 2023 COMP%, Y/A, and QBR (69.0, 8.8, 158.6) are a close match to Michael Penix's (65.4, 8.8, 157.1). As you know, Penix was just drafted 8th overall, has a very concerning injury history, and is 45 years old.
    6. A QB has gone first overall in 7 out of the last 10 drafts. The only years they haven't are in major down years for QBs and an elite talent at EDGE goes #1:
      1. 2014: Blake Bortles 3rd overall, Jadeveon Clowney 1st
      2. 2017: Mitchell Trubisky 2nd, Myles Garrett 1st
      3. 2022: Kenny Pickett 20th, Travon Walker 1st

    Modest growth over his 2023 performance would put his numbers right in line with recent top picks at QB. If he does that, stays healthy, plays well in some big games, and has a good pro day, he'll absolutely be right there in the conversation for 1.1. As we sit right now in April 2024, I'd probably handicap the odds like 1. Beck, 2. Ewers, 3. everyone else.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. 11 hours ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

    My folks are headed to Mexico outside of Cancun. They're offering to be agave mules for me.  Is there anything they should seek out that might be limited or non existent here?  What would be the cost difference between getting things there than here typically? Thanks in advance. 

    Honestly I don't know if it's worth their time, especially if they're going to be in a touristy area. A lot of what you see in Mexico is the typical Herradura, Jimador, Patron, etc stuff that you can get anywhere here. Similar prices, too. Maybe if they were going to Jalisco or something I could see it.

    I just passed through the Cancun airport recently. It has a giant "duty free" area with a big selection, but again it's mostly just common stuff at mediocre prices with pushy salesmen. The most interesting thing they had was 2x 1L bottles of Ocho reposado for $135. If you do the math that's a pretty good price per mL, but not smoking hot or anything.

    The guys there pushed me toward two different things they said were "only sold in Mexico" - 1921 and Revolucion. Revolucion in particular seems like it might be interesting, given its NOM (1123), which makes a lot of high quality stuff. The NOM for 1921 is less interesting, it looks like a contract distillery that just makes a bunch of random unremarkable stuff. I don't remember the exact prices but they didn't seem like a bargain compared to the price for quality stuff here.

    • Hook 'Em 4
  8. There were a ton of RBs taken between their 3rd and 5th round picks. Guessing they liked one or more of those guys and when they were taken they just said fuck it.

    I remain skeptical of the claim that you can just grab practice squad-level bodies and cobble together a decent running game. The Cowboys seem determined to test that theory for a second year in a row and I expect the same results. 

  9. 9: Ewers, Blue, Bond, Banks, Sorrell, Collins, Moore, Barron, Mukuba

    No idea on Savea. I could see Campbell and/or Williams having a good year and going early. Suppose it’s possible that Moore returns (he’s won’t be a high pick even if productive because of size). I’ll set the O/U at 10.5 and take the under. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
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