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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. And i think them and WSU have been the vast majority of Canzano's sources for the past year.
  2. You cannot bring a location, until you have a location. Two things advertisers want most is reach and frequency. How much you can provide within that reach will increase the value. Having a flag planted somewhere doesn't, to your point, guarantee success, but not having one provides zero. An example of this is prior to the B12's addition of WVU, they didn't have a lot of exposure on the east coast outside any national game that was shown. However, once they had WVU all games started to appear on regular TV in Pittsburgh (Morgantown is within the Pittsburgh DMA) and their syndicated games (prior contract, things are different now) were picked up by MASN the RSN in Baltimore/DC. Over time they outgrew the rsn in DC and moved to bigger channels. It was a beachhead. The same holds true for these new locations. The biggest issue the old Big 8 had wasn't brands, it was people. They've always needed more people to grow their tv exposure. That was the entire reason for the formation of the B12, gaining Texas' population, and gaining two big brands in the process. When the B12 was on its deathbed last summer, it needed growth opportunities. It needed people they could engage. From an old to new Big 12, that expansion changed the amount of households in their direct DMAs (e.g. the one they exactly reside, not big towns near) increased 68%, netting a new 5.4 million households to target. Stripping out Houston, since they always had a presence in the state, they increased 47%. Bringing Colorado back just netted them an additional 1.7m households, basically getting them more than twice as many total households to market as they had prior to last summer. None of this means they're going to get everyone watching them now. But they will get more opportunities now than they had in the past. If they can market and grow that over time, their revenue ceiling will increase from what it was.
  3. Except they wouldn't have been able to jump the Pac to get the extension without expanding. The fuck up was the Pac didn't merge with the B12 when Texas/OU left. Even if USC/UCLA still left, they'd now be the Pac 18.
  4. That's the half billion dollar question: ACC Buyout (I think 3 years of revenue): $100m GoR for 13 more years (with a 4% yearly increase): Approximately $ 506,727,666
  5. First, totally with you on a big stretch, but for shits... On P3, if Oregon, Washington and another Pac school joined the B12, its check mate. You have what we all tried to do with maps 10 years ago and that's build some version of 16 team super conferences (granted the ACC is 14, but, you know), though just not in the way any of us speculated. That seems to work more cleanly than taking it down to three. On FSU to the SEC, the major difference between the B12 and ACC situations though is the B12 is getting a rider on P5 properties that ESPN doesn't have. Getting Colorado and Arizona means ESPN gets late night without having to pay the Pac. In this FSU situation, its like moving something between your own hands. You own both, and one is locked up for a decade. Who cares if they cry, they have to beat the ACC in court on the GoR before you ever have to deal with it (since the Gor isn't with ESPN) and if they do break the GoR they've inadvertently crumbled the system by which they're hoping to profit from, so what they want won't be there for them in the way they hope once the victory parade ends. GoR's provide stability, which decreases risk, which increases revenues. Yeah, let's kill that. I imagine it to go more like. SEC: Bro, Texas and OU, you in? ESPN: Righteous bae SEC: Bro, UNC and FSU ESPN: Shut your whore mouth, bitch. Come 2036, that could all change. As it sits today, Texas can buy FSU without even realizing it spent money. If USC and Texas waited until their Gor's were over, the only people on the FSU board who think they can get out with a buyout are people who don't understand how rights are assigned.
  6. I don't think so either. The plus is, unlike the B1G where you need to buy into an ownership stake, the SEC's is a full rights deal with a revenue bump for SECNetwork performance. I'd love to hear how they're avoiding the 13 remaining years on their GoR they signed to get the ACC Network though.
  7. We picking up new MacGyvers? Not familiar with this dude.
  8. Well, the issue becomes after 16 you start getting diminishing returns because you start losing TV windows big enough to pay for your adds. The B12 adding Pac teams, as pointed out by someone a few pages ago, allows ESPN/Fox to get some late games by adding a few teams, than having to pay for them all. If you can't get Oregon or Washington, its not because they want to stay in the Pac, its because they want to wait for the B1G. In that case, take Arizona, stick at 14, and wait 5 years. They want something bigger than where they are or what you offer, so its just a terminal case for the Pac. Once they leave there isn't a big risk the remainder can rise from the dead. The B12 bounced back because there were fringe properties to sustain them. Outside maybe Stanford for ND, who is coming for Cal, ASU, Utah, OSU, or WSU? Or, who can those schools add to rival you? Boise? SDSU? Tulane? Nerp. Those 3 remaining seats in the B12 are now very valuable and the Buffs said why: Stable (even if its just stable because no one else but people at band camp will date you), media deal with ESPN/Fox, and exposure in three time zones, including Texas and Florida. The hardest decision right now is for Oregon and Washington. No way the B12 allows them to temp it and, unlike the Pac's agreement, the B12 has a $100m buyout. So do you hold, hoping the B1G takes the schools on the West Coast that USC/UCLA don't want them to bring, or do you give up your dream to become the big kids on the new block? Oh, and if you wait too long, ASU/Utah may pull a Colorado and steal 15/16 as they wait for you to cheat on them.
  9. Its already on life support, three more kills it with fire. The rest is over kill. Not saying they would, but if you got Oregon, Washington, and Arizona to 16, you fucking stop.
  10. Bungled opportunities to raid Big 12, passive leadership has Pac-12 on brink with Colorado departing in 2024 "Colorado's exit now makes it OK to question out loud the process the Pac-12 has taken to this point. Upon losing USC and UCLA, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff either could not or would not get a media rights deal done in an early negotiating window last summer. That should have been the first indicator of the league's diminishing value. There continue to be rumors the Pac-12 asked for as much $500 million annually at one point. That's $50 million per team per year, which would have put the Pac-12 in the same orbit as the Big Ten despite two biggest West Coast brands walking out the door."
  11. I'm with you on this, but I still think you take an Arizona team over Utah, even with the recent success of Utah football. Not that Utah is a bad add, having the Holy War in house is a marketable rivalry game, but they need a flag in Arizona more than they need another in Utah. I'd probably say this is your order if 1 says no, go to 2, etc. Oregon Washington Arizona Stanford Utah Arizona State Cal Oregon State Washington State
  12. Right, but Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and USC are the reason they get paid $75m a year. Oregon may be a bigger brand than Iowa, but they're not commanding that kind of money. That was the point of the comment. They're not big enough to make the B1G money, but they are big enough to make the B12/Pac more money. They exist in that gap between the two.
  13. The real irony is that the Pac could be the Pac 18 right now and Cinci, UCF, BYU, and Houston would be where they were. But the Pac didn't strike. Wasting two chances to kill the Big 12 in a single decade came back to bite them.
  14. Yeah I'd lump Oregon, Washington, FSU, and Clemson into that purgatory tier between the massive brands and the normal P5 brands. Big enough to move the B12/ACC needle, but not enough to move the SEC/B1G needle
  15. That's it everyone, its official! You heard it here first!
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