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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. twitter starting to sense blood in the water:
  2. But if I'm the B1G, i don't care about Oregon, I'm taking Stanford to lure ND so all their main rivals outside Army/Navy are now in the B1G. Also, more academic cache for those who give a fuck about graduate crap in an undergrad athletic conference.
  3. I had to read that statement a few times and process how the stability battle was lost by the Pac.
  4. They're not overpaying to facilitate the move. The move was facilitated by Fox getting Michigan/Texas. Most reports are that after the Pac decided to go to market, the B12 accepted a discount to lock in more slots and marketing.
  5. Its an anchor right now due to, as you mention, the sunkin cost fallacy. Could they write it off, yes, but most of these schools can barely weather a buyout, let alone owing more. But, I don't think they OWE $100m. What they lose is their investment in it. So if Colorado leaves, and the Pac sells the PACN for $100m, now they're splitting it 9 ways instead of 12 and Colorado nets nothing. My guess is someone is floating a potential sale, they see the value of this extra cash, and are unwilling to move until they know its real or not. If I'm the commish though, i'm not saying its real or not until after the last date you can give notice to ensure you're stuck with the deal. They need to consolidate it at a minimum and put less football on it, because the more they put on it the less they can sell. The B12 sells all their games and got $32m. That means the Pac needs to sell 60% of their games (40% currently goes to PacN) for $29m, since the remaining 40% is only paying out $3-4m currently. Or, they need it to pay out $10m/team, since 60% of the B12 deal is $20m. Here's part of the problem -subs per channel (carriage): Pac-12/National: 14.8 million ($0.13/mo) Pac-12/Los Angeles: 3.0 million ($0.73) Pac-12/Bay Area: 2.1 million ($0.80) Pac-12/Washington: 1.1 million ($0.98) Pac-12/Mountain: 1.0 million ($0.53) Pac-12/Arizona: 0.7 million ($0.91) Pac-12/Oregon: 0.6 million ($0.52) Wilner wrote this in March of 2021: Sound familiar?
  6. It does, all the season ticket holders got it for free too, but, like yours, someone paid for it - even if it was bought in bulk on a discount.
  7. They got 1m subscribers to MLS, mostly by financing it off the clubs paying for season ticket holders and then bringing in Messi. which brought in 300k new subscribers alone. Kind of agree they won't want to give away the big games. I think its far more likely they buy the PacNet and turn it into AppleSports to show MLS/MLB/Pac's biggest games for carriage than selling off the stuff people want to see. The trick is not losing your streaming audience in the process of gaining linear.
  8. I agree with all that. They're in a bad place being wedged into a geographic corner. If you're going to be wedged in, be wedged into the east, not the west. They do have enough sluggers though to get into the post season without USC. That's the interesting side angle to this moving to 12 thing. Most of the conversation is about who is going to dominate it. But there are going to be a lot of teams who start getting exposure they never had before in the B12 and Pac. Most brands are built over decades so, like Oregon 20-30 years ago, or FSU/Miami before them in the 80s-90s, someone is going to start getting a lot more eyeballs if they can take advantage of their situation.
  9. They don't really get a lot of exposure as it is and still put together recruiting classes and field teams. And, I'm not sure why you think they'd only get one team in with 12. There may be a cage match this year with Oregon, Washington, Utah and USC, with UCLA a definite spoiler. Remove the LA schools and they could still get multiple teams in the playoffs just as well as the B12 or ACC could. They're not getting three, but they've got the properties to fight for 2. Their issue is very basic: Keeping Oregon and Washington. Without them all of this conjuncture changes over night. Ridding themselves of the PacNet. If Oregon/Washington can't commit, there isn't enough to hold it together. If the Pac needs to keep supporting a handful of floundering linear stations they can't grow, then they'll never be able to maximize revenue. If those two things can be solved the rest is simple.
  10. If they stay together as 10, i think they can survive in their own bubble, enjoying the bubble. If Oregon and Washington leave all bets are off.
  11. Well if the one year notice thing is legit, we're down to T-7 days.
  12. While Colorado flirts with exit, Pac-12 commish continues urging patience on TV deal
  13. Yeah, what @S11 said. This is just Baylor's conference payouts by year, no T3, vs Colorado's conference payouts.
  14. Twitter imbeds suck, here's that picture for those who just get a broken icon:
  15. Am I the only one who read that and heard wives or girlfriends who knew we didn't have the right stance but were going to give us enough rope to hang ourselves anyway?
  16. And for cheating on research too. That's worth another chuckle.
  17. for those who don't want to dig into the tweet: Sources: Pac-12 will not announce new TV deal at media day this week
  18. Tiny TCU/ISU last year drew 4.4m opposite the Iron Bowl, which drew 6.6m. It was bigger than Texas A&M/LSU, which played in prime on the same day, and bigger than Aggies' games against Miami, Arkansas, and Florida, and only behind Aggy's game with Alabama. Texas A&M/Auburn didn't even get off the SECN. The B12's ceiling is no where near what the top of the SEC brings, but they still capture a lot of eyeballs in a tier below "big brands playing great". This is the reason the big money is coming into the SEC, as there are enough big brands at 16 that someone will always be winning, allowing that only the best games will be broadcast in the top two windows per Saturday. If you're not winning though, you'll will be swept under the rug from an exposure standpoint. I mentioned before that this move is going to help Texas' audiences considerably. That doesn't mean this tide rises all boats. A LOT of games Oklahoma currently sees broadcast due to the B12's contract, where they are always choice 1a or 1b in any given week, will drop networks and many will be on the SECN as they'll fall to choice 3, 4, or 5 in any given day. That's going to be a major change. Over time they will likely see less marquee game times unless they continue to be 10 and 11 win world beaters vying for a title. There will also be days when Oklahoma State has a better draw than an Oklahoma game, not because Oklahoma State is a better brand, but because the B12 is guaranteed good spots and Oklahoma has to be louder than Texas, Alabama, LSU, and A&M, to get the best SEC weekly draws, and that is just in the western half! Oklahoma State just needs to be louder than the rest of the Big 12 on that day. Those Thursday and Friday prime games aren't as good as ABC at noon/330/prime, but they're better than any ESPN2/U/FS1/Plus slot, so their 3rd-5th choices end up there, depending on what Fox does, which isn't a bad decision for them all things considered. That being said, the teams doing well in the B12 should be able to hold their own in most marquee slots, though wont be able to touch the top numbers Texas draws.
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