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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Thanks man, I think the USC move was predicated more on getting into the B1G deal than getting out of the Pac's
  2. Yeah Oregon and Washington will end up making more if they joined the B12, than if they stay in the Pac. Though, they'll have an easier run to the playoffs in the Pac. No one in the ACC is going anywhere for a decade, no matter how much bitching there may be. And a decade from now, when this may matter again, conferences may either be unnecessary or be a necessary victim, depending on the POV. The next step to making more money is pooling media rights together, not fragmenting. No pro sports fragment, only college sports. If the top 50-60 programs broke away from all the ties that bind and pooled their rights together, the numbers could become astronomical compared to where the B1G/SEC are today.
  3. Zero chance the CFB puts a playoff game on a Sunday and goes head to head against the NFL. They don't even like doing it on Wild Card Saturdays.
  4. Haha He's got numbers. There is no way you have been at this for a year and you have nothing. He just doesn't have great numbers. And he doesn't have numbers everyone likes. Like a whip in congress, he's not bringing it to a vote until they have already had side conversations to read the room and know it will pass. Maybe Oregon and Washington are great with the TV deal, IF they take 75% of the playoff deal. Maybe Arizona and Colorado think that is too much. Maybe Oregon State will accept anything. Half of them could be waiting until the last minute to find out of he figures out how to pay off their $70m debt, or if they have to factor that into the cost of moving, which is considerable unless you're going to the B1G, which they aren't. That horse trading is going on all over the place because the deal doesn't fit everyone right now. He'll either get creative and make it pass, or those who still like it will be making plans between now and then about what happens if the groups not interested leave. Either way, he wins if everyone accepts it or if everyone waits long enough that they can't get out in 2024. He only loses if schools start leaving in the next three weeks.
  5. Its a long shot for Boise and UNLV to join or its a long shot for the Pac to win over those two? I can see it either way!
  6. This. If the Pac and ACC schools were worth B1G/SEC money, they'd be being paid that. They're not. Outside ND, who is still technically independent, the best remaining value in both conferences is still 60% of B1G/SEC value. About 20-30% higher than the Big12/ACC, but not enough to move the needle significantly.
  7. The B12 would probably be ok stopping, but the moment one defection happens in the Pac, especially after they ghosted the Aztecs, its going to be crazy unstable.
  8. Pac 12 Membership Handbook Seems to be an August fiscal.
  9. I'm beginning to think their fiscal is August to July, so the that moment of one year notice has to occur before July 31st. USC/UCLA announced to be accepted into the B1G to be on the B1G's new deal, which aligned with the B1G's fiscal July. So if a Pac team doesn't give a years notice before the year ends, they won't be leaving until July of 2025, one year into the new contract, so they're there because they chose to be or because they're fucked to be.
  10. I'm guessing its because he has a few no votes on his idea and, to keep it from getting shot down, he keeps going back to try and turn those before he gives it to the group. The challenge is at some point there will be a singularity event where something has to happen. Either the schools will get what they want on that date, they'll leave on that date, or they'll choose not to leave and be fucked to have to accept anything they're offered. He wins in two thirds of those options, so its best to delay.
  11. At this point, i'm not sure that's the case. UNC is definitely not, even with premium carriage in NC for the SEC Network. ND would, but mostly the same as the B1G, it brings in enough to pay for itself, and maybe a friend, which maybe gives UNC a shot as the plus one wedding invite.
  12. It is, i think he means breaking it. Its basically the B12's GoR, on steroids.
  13. Until he has ten votes, I'd be shocked if he presents anything
  14. Yeah it would provide him a lure too. Let's say they actually sell it for $150m and $75m pays off debt. That splits $75m 10 ways. Over 5 years that's 1.5m a year to buff up any contract difference AND, if a team moves they lose that $7.5m, which hurts because they've paid into it for a decade with no return.
  15. If it is sold, probably. And if sold, it will be for pennies on the dollar, like $100m. It provides Apple a linear channel in 14m homes with a lot of production equipment and the personel to use it. Though it would cease to be PacNet and would become linear Apple TV. With their MLS and MLB regional agreements and the implosion of RSN, where rights can be gobbled up in various markets, they could expand the footprint more than the Pac ever could.
  16. I'm guessing the later. Either they are the smartest people in the room or this is going to implode drastically. The best expansion property on the board for them is now off market and ESPN is down to one window left and is cost-cutting at a remarkable pace. I'm still under the belief that the reason this is taking so long is they are going to sell the PacNet to pay off their issues and regain some lost investment, which will look like increased revenue for 5-10 years. If someone leaves now, they may miss out on recouping that cost.
  17. Potential and Population are not the measurements Does it help, sure, in time. Brand is like a bucket you fill slowly each year. The more success you have over decades, the greater that brand grows, you can't really grow a stable brand quickly. Nebraska has been a dumpster fire for two decades and it still has a bigger bucket than any other property left on the board, except the Irish. Miami, FSU, Oregon, etc, they all have brands, they have value. But they don't have brands and value that equates to the Big 2's per team revenue. They are in purgatory between the haves and have nots. Too valuable for the B12/ACC and not valuable enough for the Big 2.
  18. So this is an interesting one that I am not sure about. Brian is pretty good with media numbers, but the B12 just signed an additional data deal a little bit ago. I basically monetizes targeted ads. The NFL's is like a quarter or a half bill, so I'd be shocked if the B12 was getting $84m a year, but this could be a part of where basketball has more value due to the shear number of games. Not really my wheelhouse, but interesting if true. Thats kind of how I'd measure it, like a Q-score. When Nebraska sucks balls, they're still pulling in similar numbers to Oregon when at their best.
  19. This seems a no brainer. The windows are filling up fast and you can either put more games on streaming, at 12-14 teams, or you can take more windows. They've got 2 on Saturday, but getting Thursday and Friday nights not only takes games off streaming to linear, but also takes options away from the Pac. After next year, they could add 2-4 more west coast teams and take the late night window too and keep 3-5 linear slots on every week. Granted, not all in the top three camps of Big Noon on Fox and ESPN/ABC in prime, but its far better branding to be on tv than not. And playing Thursday night on ESPN is better than FS1, like, ever. And FS1 is better than any conference network or streaming.
  20. Haha, that is the benefit of timing, the next year starts tomorrow.
  21. I'm discussing brands, not how well some teams do in big games or when they're good. At 6-6 more people will still watch Texas or Michigan than will tune into Aurburn or FSU or Clemson. Oregon's brand is growing but it is not in that top tier. Nebraska has fucking blown for decades, but they still carry more brand power than Oregon. When consolidating for regular seasons, you want brands. Viewers will come.
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