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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Right, two different things though. SDSU's window is July, after their buyout doubles. Texas and Oklahoma both paid $50m to BUYOUT, their GoR was settled with timing and a Michigan/Texas game for Fox. The Pac GOR ends next year, so no one would sign another one and then leave. So they get an easy out saying they're gone next year, but they still have a notification window and, generally, that is a year, or two in the B12's deal, after the current. If they notify, they're leaving in the next month, they can be on another contract next year. If they notify in August, they can be on another contract a year after, since the fiscal year would have changed. And THAT is the huge deal. Because now they have to sign any deal the Pac has or they're in no-mans land
  2. This stuff TK is saying is the entire reason for the deadlines. Like the SDSU fiasco, notifications have to occur within windows, or fuckdom occurs. For the Pac, its before the next financial year
  3. I love how Nebraska's rival 20 years ago was Oklahoma. Now it's Iowa, and it's the only one....and its protected.
  4. You're joking right? I'm more they won't take Utah over each of those two
  5. Jesus, unequal AND $23m?! To get the Ducks and Huskies to $32m, the other eight would only clear $20m. My guess is unequal is in any future post season revenue since they can't budget for it yet, unless you're Washington State.
  6. They can stop it very, very easily. At some point, without an anti-trust exemption, CFB needs political help to reduce access. Much of the move from 2 to 12 in recent years has been for providing more post season opportunity optics as it has been increasing money. CFB is the only NCAA sport with so few schools routinely represented in the post season and that raises eyebrows. The NCAA has tried for decades to get the NFL's antitrust exemption and if they couldn't do it I guarantee you that the B1G/SEC can't do it on their own. The only way to shake it more is to break away fully from the NCAA for a single sport. Conferences would kind of cease to be and it would move to this organization. But even then, due to not having the exemption, the organization would need to offer a path to joining or these universities would start to be treated as businesses. So, having 6 autos isn't frowned upon by the SEC/B1G even if they say "it should be the best 12" because by allowing the autos they stay out of federal hearings on their financial structure. And they would, once states lost access, those politicians would start banding together and it would be a huge mess. On top of that, it doesn't really gain them anything. The B1G and SEC are already going to get 3 each in, they're going to restructure the financials so the B12 windfall of the CFP doesn't occur anymore, you'll get paid by the number of teams you have in your conference, for one, and, likely, performance over time, as another. In short, their battle for a 4th team, just isn't worth the fight.
  7. There are 4 byes that go to the top 4 highest ranked conference champions.
  8. Yeah my brainiac cousin fucked up round one of going to school with booze and drugs and the family drama had him pegged as the washout. Then got his shit together and went this route to lean into his geek and climbed the corporate ladder easily. His Aggy sister, on the other hand, is now a hot mess.
  9. California is like Chicago and NYC/Philly/DC though - more kids than local schools. I'd guess the biggest out of state enrollment for Wisconson, Indiana, Iowa and Iowa State is Chicago, just like NYC kids flood the entire east coast. It doesn't matter if Colorado even has sports, it will still have 12% of its enrollment from Cali. 15% of CSU's enrollment is from Cali/Texas/Illinois
  10. Colorado made $5m less than Kansas State last year, the lowest revenue school in the B12, while running a $10m deficit. They'd move for the daily deal at McDonalds at this point.
  11. Agree, and Primetime still kind of lives there Yeah no doubt. It was more a sign they have so few good options.
  12. Assuming Colorado and Zona bolt, seems most likely. At that point though are you better off with Boise or CSU or Fresno? Or hell, do you elevate and invest in Fullerton, who has like 35-40k students, in Orange county to get more SoCal? Id not want to be in their shoes if UC/AC leave, because I doubt the rest will stick together fully.
  13. Yeah its the same math the Big 12 had at 10. Either you can move the needle already, or you need to invest in someone to move the needle later. But, with no one for the Pac to move immediately, they're in a bind. I saw one Big 12 administrator comment, and I wish i could find it again, when asked why they're in a better position than the Pac 12, they said something along the lines of "Well, because we have fans west of us." Also, this:
  14. So...i went and looked at their current roster and here's where they reside: SoCal - 11 Colorado - 11 Non-SoCal/Colorado Pac States - 8 Big 12 States - 24 Everywhere Else - 19
  15. They lost SoCal, which was kind of their entire reason for going to the Pac originally along with ensuring they had a seat in the Pac 16, they didn't gain financially from it. I'm not sure how much benefit they get out of NoCal and if you're fighting in LA without even the option to play in LA, like they could with USC/UCLA, does it become a better pivot to head to Dallas and Houston?
  16. Yeah all this, unless the Pac is at 8 or 9, then money be damned.
  17. Ha no, i meant he didn't end with FSU/Clemson. I just didn't feel like sorting through his shit, that one was on top.
  18. It's worse than $12m. In 2021-2022, a year prior, WSU made less than every other Big 12 school at $85 million (KSU is 10th with $100m). But of that $85 million, $1.3m came from student fees, which is kind of standard as sometimes those also count as tickets, etc. However a whopping $14m of it came from school funds. Only $19.5M of the $85m came from ticket sales and contributions. Their rights and licensing was the largest category at $42m, and that includes the Pac 12 payout. WSU can barely keep the lights on while in the Pac 12 before USC/UCLA left and have been running $10m+ deficits for several years. No wonder they're dropping "everything is awesome!" quotes to the media every time they ask.
  19. I'd actually be completely shocked if they ended up in different conferences. Both tidewater grandfathers kind of orbit each other.
  20. This was actually the main reason the B12 went to market early after Texas and OU left. It provided certainty in budgeting, for the remaining schools they remained on the same trendline they forecasted so, while they didn't get any major gain, they were still in their growth window on the current deal so they signed up..
  21. And, according to Scheer from AZ, the West Coast media dudes get most of their quotes from WSU, OSU, and Pac offices.
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