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sunset87

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by sunset87

  1. By the way, anyone with banks or financial institutions that are taking possession of O&G properties and are looking for a contract operating arrangement, PM me. We have been producing/operating for 50 years and have 0 debt.
  2. We operate one lease in Hidalgo County, Tx (deep south Texas). It's one of the worst areas in Texas for transportation costs. Our trucking/deduct number is going to $13.00/barrel in May. Using the standard purchasing formula (subbing Houston/Cush differential for the Mid/Cush diff.) for that lease, the May oil price numbers are likely to be negative! We would have to pay the oil purchaser to come get our oil...😬
  3. For Permian producers, May's pricing using the standard WTI posting (not Nymex) formula, with about a week to go for determining the P+ and the WTI/Cushing differential (for Permian crude), is currently at P+ $-2.3, WTI/Cush diff $-5.00. So subtract whatever your deduct/trucking number is from the oil purchaser (maybe around $2.50 as an estimate for leases in the Permian). In this scenario you are looking at (using current monthly averages for P+, and WTI/Cush diff.) around $-10.00/bbl + whatever the WTI posting averages for May. Right now WTI posting is in the $16 to $17 dollar range. If that pricing continues into May (most people think it will, but who knows), you are looking at $6 to $7 a barrel for oil at the wellhead price for producers in May. tldr: lots of wells are going to be shut-in in the upcoming months
  4. Yeah no doubt the high rate horizontals are profitable at $20, but do you want to produce those wells with that price environment. It's got to put a big dent in the economics if you have to produce them for very long at those prices. On the other hand, you've got to pay the bills... Unfortunately, our company is strictly conventional and a lot of it is older production.
  5. We booked a European trip through EF Ultimate Break back in November for a trip in May for our daughter, and paid for the trip insurance. They are telling us we can receive credit and book another trip, but if we cancel they keep about 15% of the total cost. She can't go any time this summer or next and has no idea about her future schedule because of graduating from college in 2 years, so we want the refund. It seems like 15% of the total cost of the trip would be close to their profit margin in normal times. They say they are taking losses from having to cancel hotels, etc..., but I would think they would have insurance for that scenario. Feels like they aren't losing much of anything if you cancel, even if you bought the trip insurance. Are you still going on your trip?
  6. We operate, and are having some heated discussions on this topic right now.
  7. I guess hedged oil is the biggest problem, supply wise, for domestic production in 2020. Assuming it can be sold. I would think the percentage of production that is profitable at $20 to $25/bbl can't be too high. If companies start shutting in production losing money, that should take a fair amount off the market. Do companies shutting in or reducing production reduce AO to working interest owners? Profitability from our companies production in the $20 dollar range is fugly, like 10 to 20%. Of course we have a bunch of stripper wells.
  8. I’m not sure I agree with his statement about lifting costs for shale wells being minuscule. Relative to offshore maybe, but submersibles are not cheap to run. Operating expenses are quite a bit higher than your average domestic onshore well, simply because of the complexity and nature of horizontal wells. There will be a quick ramp up, whenever that occurs, because of the stock pile of DUCs.
  9. Might be at some point. Right now we are getting cancellation notices from our oil purchasers starting May 1. So, not sure how long that will go on, and how or if it will effect well performance when the wells are put back on production. I think most people are just trying to strategize on how to stay a float, for who knows how long. I'm sure there are companies that are in a position to take advantage, but many more are not.
  10. Obviously a gutted US shale industry is win for SA and Russia. I'm just wondering if the whole tiff between these two wasn't orchestrated. Their main goal is to hurt US shale not each other. Maybe too tinfoil...
  11. Could the Saudis and Russia be playing some kind of behind the scenes, end game, to blow up the US shale industry?
  12. I got sick around February 28th. It lasted about 4 to 5 days, dry cough, aches, low grade fever. Tested negative for the flu (had a flu shot) but it felt like a mild case of the flu. I just assumed it was a garden variety virus of some sort.
  13. This may have already been covered, but what are the prevailing thoughts on this exhibiting seasonality? If it does, that might create some time to develop some vaccines and meds.
  14. I guess it depends on your perspective. I was around, just starting my career for the 86' one, and I'm a native Midlander. It just about buried this town. Bank failures, massive layoffs, company bankruptcies left and right. It was ugly. Like I said, it may get that bad again, but right now team shale doesn't seem to be getting the message.. Yes, it has slowed down and it needed to. The musical chairs have finally started stopping. It's not a surprise to a lot of people. This has been more of a technology boom and bust not price controlled like 86' and others.
  15. Hah! The 86' bust say's, "hold my beer". This one may get there, but it's not there yet. And I know you said--in your years.
  16. It's what they do/are...hell, they probably have a nickname for the booger they wiped on their bathroom mirror this morning.
  17. Hate to jump on the derailment train...but, does anyone know if the Shingrix shot will help prevent Bell's Palsy? Since shingles and Bell's are both supposedly cause by herpes zoster. I've had Bell's 3 times and I don't fucking want it again, nor do I want shingles which I might be particularly susceptible to, based on my Bell's experiences.
  18. The problem is, if they reviewed every tackle they could find defenders tackling using the crown of their helmet constantly. But yes, by rule it was targeting.
  19. What’s funny to me is that “optic politics” can influence the hydrocarbon sector all it wants and we can stand on our moral high ground about reducing our foot print here and in Europe. But, Asia is building and commissioning coal fired plants at a frenzied pace. Why? One main reason is to meet our demands. We are essentially exporting our problems to Asia. If it makes people feel better (California) to think they are doing a great job cleaning up their air, so be it. Last I checked, there is only one atmosphere. Doesn’t really matter where emissions are coming from. We want our stuff therefore someone is going to supply it.
  20. Go to switchenergyproject.com. Scott Tinker at the BEG has done a good job of addressing a lot of this.
  21. Anyone know who originally wrote this? It’s a classic, still cracks me up when I read it.
  22. They absolutely need to get the timing down on setting Butler. She can be unstoppable if they can clean that up (high, fast set). Well, and maybe not so many service errors and better passing and...never mind.
  23. sunset87

    Gym Pet Peeves

    Which brings me to this observation. I can always tell who the aggys are at the gym. Without fail, they will wear some sort of aggy gear every time they workout. Other annoyances, the guys that slam the plates together, at an ear shattering level, when they rack the bench press, squat rack, etc...It's like they have to announce to the gym that they are "loading up" the bar with 45's bro. Also, people that don't have a enough gym etiquette to walk-in and observe for just a minute to see what is being used by whom. Sometimes, someone will walk in the door and make a beeline for a piece of equipment that I am using, and I have walked a few feet away for a second, to grab a towel, get a drink etc... I don't want to feel like I have to stand guard over it between sets.
  24. I'm out of the loop, so is Fedora not an option for OC? I assume that would be the definition of a comfort hire. Which is why it could likely happen... On the other hand, he has already worked for/with Herman so he might not want any part of it at this point.
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