Jump to content

Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    13620
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    21

Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. Same here. My 70-year-old dad does it, it's time to have the Jimmy Carter talk with him for the next election. "If you die between the first day of early voting and election day that would suck."
  2. I don't think anyone is, or at least should be, extremely confident in a win on either side. The reason for optimism on the Harris side, though, is the repeated and stubborn second level polling results. It seems like the vast majority of polls showing Trump leads did things like delete Philadelphia from their Pennsylvania likely voter screen, base their bottom line on a 77% white electorate in an area after it was 67% last time, etc. Meanwhile when you look at voter enthusiasm, polls of those who have already voted, female polling percentage combined with voter share, etc. it is all looking good for Harris. It reminds me of the blog post a long time ago that showed that Texas students scored higher on the SAT than Wisconsin students in every single demographic, but Wisconsin scored higher overall only because they had a much higher percentage of white students. Similarly, the only way the polls have been good for Trump the way the pollsters are claiming is if uneducated rural white people dominate the polling places. And that takes us right back to the voter enthusiasm environment. But, again, we don't know shit about fuck because it's all poll-based. But the reason for optimism is that the human pollsters are claiming a horserace after massaging the data, but the data itself is showing a probable Harris victory. After the pollsters have significantly underestimate D success in every election since Dobbs.
  3. Yes, about 6 votes from Dixville Notch, NH will be announced shortly after midnight eastern. It doesn't mean anything but it's a little Election Day tradition.
  4. Look, I'm not a fan of it in terms I wish none of this stuff would happen. But if they riot again the easy solution is to Ashli Babbitt someone much more quickly this time. Once that happened they figured shit out real fast. I'm pretty confident this will happen on January 6th, 2025 because they're already designating it a national security event. The question is if they'll react accordingly in other locations on other dates. If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.
  5. Some more data after finding stuff on the GA site (I think this is all registered voters, not active, based on the column headers): 2016 - Black turnout 1,151,949/2,048,904 = 56.22%; White turnout 2,529,810/3,727,549 = 67.87%; 11.65% white turnout advantage; 45.54% black-to-white ballot ratio 2020 - Black turnout 1,373,543/2,290,365 = 59.97%; White turnout 2,924,829/4,029,156 = 72.59%; 12.62% white turnout advantage; 46.96% black-to-white ballot ratio So in Presidential elections the current ratio is indeed a bit lower (huge caveat: this year's info is early voting only while the above past years are total voting including election day) but not nearly as drastic as sushihorn is making it seem. In fact the white turnout advantage went up from 2016 to 2020 when Georgia went from going for Trump to going for Biden. And you can also see that the white turnout advantage went up while their share of the electorate went down due specifically to what we talked about above. Their share of registered/active voters is going down.
  6. Yeah I wish the Georgia site had better historical data. Based on your numbers above, the entire difference in turnout by race compared to previous elections is a decrease in active white voters. This matches with the Georgia site data from 2022 compared to 2024. 2022 - There were 44.05% as many black ballots as white ballots (2,358,582 white ballots, 1,038,873 black ballots) 2024 - There are 45.34% as many black ballots as white ballots (2,251,895 white ballots, 1,021,030 black ballots) Despite the fact that white turnout is up as reported by Georgia, their share of the electorate is down so far.
  7. Do you have the early voting turnout by race for the 2016 election? If not then all of this is meaningless.
  8. I was thinking that if Harris wins and I go to Chili's then I was going to take down an El Niño margarita or three. But then I realized I won't be able to pass up the opportunity to order a different kind and emphasize when I order a "LA Presidente margarita" even if the official name of the drink lacks the gender article.
  9. No but the one after the game was stunned silent when I just said "cool, so am I" and kept walking.
  10. You sure you can't swing by Cypress?
  11. My Michigan anecdote for this election is that when I was in Ann Arbor both before the game and after the game Michigan frat bros (different one each time) yelled at me that Trump sucks and Michigan is for Harris. I realize that's just because my clothes indicated I'm from Texas but if frat bros are willing to yell that then this thing is in the bag for Harris. Ha.
  12. Oh, it seems clear now. Who could have seen this before?
  13. Have to believe they'll avoid conference matchups in the first round if it's easy. Switch Alabama with either Notre Dame or Boise State and you do that with this ranking set.
  14. I'm assuming @SydneyCarton will come join me at the Cypress Chili's to celebrate on Wednesday if things go well.
  15. That one was actually the correct call. It increases the admittedly small probability of winning.
  16. 2nd and 1 near the end zone throw a 1 yard route when saving time is what matters. Again, morons.
  17. Tolbert slows down for no reason mid-route. Ball actually was perfect if he hadn't slowed down.
  18. The first release of that map was bad data. They left out a main Trump PAC.
  19. https://maps.app.goo.gl/At2qKL7vLVbLCvF97
  20. Then play action deep shot on 1st and 10. Just a stupid team.
  21. QB sneak on second and 1 down 11. Jesus Christ.
  22. Shades are based on <3, 3-6, 6+
  23. lulz No, this game is not the OU game. Your great example of how you can never tell is a game we won by double digits at their place. The better team wins this game at a ridiculously high rate.
  24. Knee injury
×
×
  • Create New...