Jump to content

Huckleberry

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    13622
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    21

Everything posted by Huckleberry

  1. Drop from Monday but that is fairly standard. Every election since 2016 has seen it on the second Tuesday. My prediction is that the idiots who wait until this Friday will regret it even more than usual because Thursday will be light due to Halloween.
  2. I think I can now add this to my list of Longhorn internet phrase creations f the haters, Greg Davis is Not Our Standard, caterwauling vagina, and nobody knows shit about fuck as it specifically pertains to this election
  3. Modern poll response is tilted towards the loudest and most fanatic voters. Who else is likely to waste time responding to a poll? Response rates are terrible as @quigley has discussed; polls are basically calling 25-50 people on average until someone finally decides to respond to a political poll. In 2016 #ImWithHer or whatever was a loud movement and there weren't as many fervent MAGAts as there are now. In 2024 Trumpers have more loud and obnoxious supporters and the people who are tired of all the shit will break for Harris. That's one theory anyway.
  4. Well he doesn't say exit polls from where. Maybe it's BS, maybe it's San Francisco County.
  5. I'm trying to figure out what I think an appropriate sentence for intentional mass destruction of ballots is. 5 years minimum time served is the lowest I'll go. Absolutely have to miss a full election cycle. But part of me thinks 2-4 years per ballot destroyed is fair. Served consecutively because fuck that. But sure, parole eligibility in 5 years still I guess.
  6. He's talking about Ohio I think
  7. They almost certainly had more likely voters from Philadelphia in their national poll than TIPP had in their recent Pennsylvania poll.
  8. Your first sentence answers your last.
  9. Yes but you're supposed to use fewer.
  10. It's 1:15 tops to Portland from the closest county Trump won in 2020. 1:45 to the closest county he won with 70% of the vote. Those aren't far drives or long distances to those of us who don't wear Depends, dude.
  11. Why are you comparing EV 2024 to final electorate 2020? What does EV versus final electorate 2016 look like? Do white rural voters historically vote early in larger numbers (yes they do)? And why are you using EV electorate to date when it comes to age but using overall demographics when it comes to education? We know that those having college degrees are more consistent voters. To be clear I wouldn't bet a single cent that Cruz doesn't win by at least 5 points.
  12. Nobody knows shit about fuck. Pollsters are quite clearly modifying their findings so they don't undercount Trump voters. But are they going too far? Nobody knows. Meanwhile since Dobbs the polls have been seriously undercounting D votes but there is no industry move to account for that right now. And despite saying the independent voters are splitting evenly, the only poll we've seen that reported on people who have already voted showed that they're breaking hard for Harris so far in North Carolina (Marist poll 55-43 Harris in NC which said independents who haven't voted claim they're 53-45 for Trump, so you can interpret that different ways).
  13. Except Cruz. Nobody likes him.
  14. To be fair, at Huckleberry household game nights I do both.
  15. The issue with using 2020 is specifically regarding early voting trends. Pre-2020, Rs voted early and Ds voted on election day. I don't think you can draw conclusions either way. There's not really a good reason why we wouldn't expect to trend back that direction post-pandemic. It's just impossible to say how much until after the real final data comes in unfortunately.
  16. I agree that new old voters will not be as heavily R as historical old voters. However I think the down that they will still break in Trump's favor is valid. But my gut is they will be much closer to 50/50 than the ones who have spent decades being turned into party over country dummies.
  17. Not sure about that. I don't think he's as good as he looked at first. Now there's tape on him, I think he's still playing at a good level for him.
  18. People are correct that Ewers has not looked great the last few weeks. But I'm not sure why he's being singled out. The entire offense has looked like shit with the possible exception of Wisner, Helm, and the small amount of Blue this week. QB, OL, WR, coaching. It's all been ass.
  19. "Old people can be forgetful. Now go get me a beer whatever-your-name-is."
  20. Well if that's the case then good of them to adjust.
×
×
  • Create New...