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VolenteHawk

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by VolenteHawk

  1. 2 minutes ago, Fud said:

    Before Daniels got injured last year, Kansas was running him a lot more (designed QB runs and QB run options), and they had an elite offense in terms of efficiency. They were designed runs because when he scrambles, he's looking to pass the ball first, although if nothing is open he'll run to move the chains. Post Daniels injury, their offense hasn't been quite as efficient (although still very good), I think in large part because they're trying to protect him. 

    There's a line of thinking that Kansas has been saving his running ability for this game. I'm wondering though if they'd rather save him for the rest of the season? They have a good back-up who they can win individual games with, but they're much less likely to run the table post-Texas with that guy than with Daniels. Do you go all out to win Texas and risk injuring Daniels, or do you maintain what's been the post-injury status quo for running Daniels and play for the rest of the season?

    Yeah, he didn't play week 1, and they were quite protective of him in weeks 2-3...but there were some designed runs against BYU, so I'd expect the full playbook.  KU has had a lot of success running the ball but haven't had a test like UT's front yet.  If we get one dimensional, it could be a long day.

    The defense appears to be better (though better from abysmally bad last year) but is similarly relatively untested and has relied on forcing turnovers...they don't really have the horses to be a lockdown unit.

    I'm thrilled with where we are in the rebuild, but we haven't really shown the ability to hang around with teams full of athletes...albeit that was mostly without Daniels.  I'm going to go ahead and get liquored up at the tailgate, just in case I need the numbing.

    • Hook 'Em 8
    • Like 1
  2. On 7/25/2023 at 11:11 PM, Trynapigdog said:

    I’ve been tailing Billy Ward from Action network on his NRFI/YRFI bets throughout the week. His description is below. I don’t get to them everyday but today his system went 4 - 1. I missed out on the 4-0 opportunity yesterday. The juice can hurt if you hit a bad losing streak but overall it’s been a good strategy. I’ll try and keep track of the system on here and see what shakes out.

    ————O ————
    The Model.
    The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient.

    As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the “when” rather than “how many.”

    Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late.

    Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.

    That’s only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team’s total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup.

    While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.

    This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time.

    However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night’s game.

    The Picks
    With all of the picks below, I’ll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I’d bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.

    Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.

    Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the “run equity” in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.

    ————O ————

    Picks for 7/24/23
    MIN/SEA NRFI -120 - win
    HOU/TEX YRFI -106 - win
    MIL/CIN YRFI -115 - win
    TOR/LAD YRFI -129 - win
    System record: 4 - 0 - 0

    Picks for 7/25/23
    DET/LAA YRFI +100 - win
    NYY/NYM YRFI +100 - win
    CHC/CHW YFRI -108 - lose
    PIT/SD NRFI -105 - win
    TOR/LAD YRFI -115 - win
    System record: 8 - 1 - 0

    This is interesting.  HUGE disclaimer that I'm not handicapping baseball at all this year...real life getting in the way.  I hope to be back by the playoffs.  That said, this sorta thing is how I think about baseball betting, so I'll quibble with it for the sake of discussion and without putting enough work in to know if I'm right or wrong.

    I like that he's using xFIP to evaluate pitchers, it's the best opponent/field neutral metric we have.  Where I'd quibble is why he needs full game run lines and full game pitching stats at all.  You can presumably build a 1st inning probability model as he has here and keep it agnostic of the full game numbers, it's simply "is the probability different enough from the betting odds to make a bet?".  I don't want the noise of two pitchers that are theoretically exactly the same in the first inning but different in the 6th b/c one is a veteran and gets more rope and one is young and gets pulled at the first sign of trouble.  The full game market efficiently accounts for this, I just don't know why I'd care to include it when a simpler calculation would suffice.  I'd also wonder about first time through the order vs literal first inning stats, but if he put this much work in what he landed on has to have performed better on a back fit or maybe they're the same and larger sample size wins.  The hitting side is a little more obvious, wRC+ is a fine choice and first 4 or 5 hitters are fine with me depending on what back fits better.

    I'd also say that if he's seeing inefficiency early and that motivates making bets before he knows lineups then something about the market has changed/adjusted.  I was never a big first inning guy, but the guys I know that are used to wait until nearly first pitch b/c they were always betting yes and betting no was a bit of a square side.  You'd pretty literally never lay favorite juice on a yes and also pretty literally never bet a no, so this is probably a reflection of the exotic markets getting more efficient as bettors get smarter.

  3. 11 hours ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

    I only noticed Whybrew on auto, was there a second? 

    I got booted at the beginning, so I probably looked offline for a couple minutes.  Was able to queue up the homer Witt Jr pick, though.

     

  4. 11 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

    i'm down to move it if it means we can add another person. 

    You need to add 2 now, I’m out. I presume we’re all grown ass adults with schedules. Changing day of is sorta bullshit.

    It’s $50, so who gives a fuck, I get it…but I actually moved real life shit to draft tonight.

  5. On 3/22/2023 at 11:49 AM, henrygandorf said:

    also do we know when the horns would be on sunday if we so happen to win on friday?  will this interfere?

    Obligatory condescending douchey "I know you're not used to this but elite 8 Sunday games are earlier" from a semi-butthurt Kansas fan.

    Championship game for my boy's tournament is at 6 in BFE (Dripping), but we'll almost certainly not be playing in it.  If they bump their heads, I may be autodraft.

  6. On 2/28/2023 at 5:27 PM, Jameslaw121 said:

    We got a car about a year ago which was our first keyless ignition experiment. Wife left the car running overnight.....

    My first one was an '08 Infiniti that I purchased new on October 24th (which I wouldn't remember except...).  Picked up a buddy the next morning, headed downtown to hit our tailgate.  It ran in the Manor garage for the entirety of Texas/Oklahoma State.

    My wife doesn't know about this or I could be on a "Husbands and the stupid shit they do" thread somewhere.

    • Haha 3
  7. Just now, Hookem2147 said:

    Everyone keeps talking about how great of a coach Porter Moser is and 2 years into his tenure I am waiting to see any signs that is actually true.

    Don’t mean to be Mr. Obvious but missing the tournament in back to back years is not good.

    The defensive plan was to run KU off the 3 point line (which to be fair worked they were just 4-11) and not allow easy baskets or transition and make KU finish through contact.

    I suppose muddying it up when you're less talented then, when the opponent is in the double bonus the last 45 minutes b/c you schemed to play that way, shrugging your shoulders and blaming the officials won't get you fired...but it's not exactly brilliant coaching.

  8. 6 hours ago, ztejas said:

    (Agbaji is perfectly average on the boards for his size - McCullar is a good bit better than him on that end).

    Except he's not.  He gets 1% more rebounds than Agbaji while playing more 4, and that's not for their size that's a raw rate.  So there's two more spots to spread out...I'm just not sure it's possible.  They weren't very good on the defensive glass last year, and it worked out fine...but they could be TERRIBLE at it this year.

    Alas, it's not a Kansas board, and I wouldn't have brought it up at all except Texas is in a similar situation so I thought the similarities were interesting.

  9. On 11/16/2022 at 9:26 AM, ztejas said:

    Gradey is the same size as Braun and you're giving more minutes to McCullar and Rice instead of Remy playing. KJ is also bigger than Agbaji. You don't have 6'10" McCormack getting minutes this season but their 1-4 rotation is actually bigger this year. 

    Granted Braun plays bigger than Gradey. 

    If KU has a size problem then Texas has a size crisis on its hands. 

    Both Agbaji and Braun rebounded well for their size.  McCullar probably covers for one of those but the other is a pretty big question mark.  Adams also won't rebound as well as McCormack did.

    In 2022, I don't think you actually need a true center, an undersized athlete that can screen/roll/crash provides some advantage in keeping the middle of the floor clear for dribble penetration...which is crucial if you're a suspect shooting team.  The question about being undersized there is can you rebound it enough.  This whole paragraph applies quite similarly to Kansas and Texas.

    They'll both be really good, it's just a matter of playing to a draw on the defensive glass and winning in other ways, I think.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  10. On 11/2/2022 at 11:51 AM, Js1 said:
    • Texas-type summers are out.  I hope to only deal with one more in my life and then be gone.  So miss me with anything in the southern US where it's 100+ degrees for 4 consecutive months or anything humid AF in the summer (DC)
    • Cold/snow isn't an issue.  I preferred the Denver winters over Houston summers, no question.  Give me 4+ months of winter over the fucking blastfurnace.  My dog also cannot handle this heat anymore. 
    • Continental time zones aren't an issue.  My work is central and mountain time.  No issue with delays, per my bosses.

    Chicago or Minneapolis.

  11. 22 hours ago, Braff Zacklin said:

    Five years and one championship later, and KU has decided it will take action against itself now instead of waiting for the NCAA to drop the hammer.

    Self and assistant Kurtis Townsend have been suspended for the first four games of the season, including the Nov. 15 showdown with Duke in the Champions' Classic. Norm Roberts will guide the team in their absence.

    https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/34932400/kansas-suspends-bill-self-4-games-infractions-case

    That'll teach 'em!

    Meanwhile, the NCAA is looking into additional punishments for Oklahoma State (not reported in that [or any other] article but I'm sure it's in the works).

    There won't be an NCAA hammer.  Louisville's "penalties" came out today...

    A $5k fine (not a typo), some mild recruiting restrictions, and 2 years probation.  As a reminder, a Louisville assistant coach provided a literal envelope of cash, they falsified information to the NCAA, and they were already on probation for stripper-gate while they did that.

    If KU had waited two days they could have downgraded their self sanction to a demand of a public apology from the NCAA.

  12. On 10/22/2022 at 1:46 PM, Hank_Hill said:

    D034D907-288B-4DBF-B5F8-0C2A00F5AFE6.thumb.jpeg.a51cac330b0e08c7ab45ea87f6634c6c.jpeg
    30th bday gift from the wife. Let the collection begin I guess

    My first watch worth north of a few hundred bucks was a Calibre 5.  I may buy another version of it just to have at some point.

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