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Everything posted by NoName
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just to be clear, this took less than 10 min thanks to https://collegefootballdata.com/ and Excel - not a long project and can be done even faster if you know anything about R and Python
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i agree with the tiny sample size issue totally and completely. the point of that is that the data we do have and do have access to does not back up the "Guy A is more explosive than Guy B" eye test. all we do know is that at every opportunity for their careers at Texas the coaching staff, which has access to way more data and way more information than we do, has said chosen to give more snaps to Baxter over Blue. here's is to hoping Texas has some wildass RB room next year and they both run for thousand yards. i agree that a lot of the value of those terms is better in other sports vs football in general. there is no CFB version of wRC+ out there to compare how good True Freshman Bijan was vs true freshman Cedric Benson or even an easier way to compare someone like Blue to someone like Baxter. i agree that the sample size is too small in CFB i agree that there are huge swings in variability to make any one of them the single best stat or single best metric. also i think there is absolutely value in looking some of the advanced stats as a piece of the puzzle and a piece of how good a player/team is. i think they are more valuable at the team level than the player level (much larger sample size at that point) but there is no be all end all stat i think some of the RB stats we had access to are useful (highlight yards vs line yards for example) - but again that doesn't show everything and isn't the end all be all. of all the (public systems) out there, prediction tracker tracks like 50 different (public) systems that all make game predictions and last year 2 total systems beat the line straight up and the best one was only 0.5% better than the line SU. ATS, the line was better by almost 5%. none of em are perfect, none of them are the end all-be all. that said, the very basic stats around Blue vs Baxter absolutely do not back up the "Blue is incredibly explosive and way more explosive than Baxter." the comparison to Herman hurts i like stats, i think they add color to the discussion and add value to the discussion. you have to balance between the gut/eye test and the stats side of things. anyone who uses stats alone is as bad as someone who uses the eye test alone.
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yeah, that's wrong. pulled the per play data for only the ISU game, the TTU game, the Oklahoma State game and the Washington game - games after Brooks got hurt and those two basically split rushing attempts. here's the results edit: fixed my %s, i had hardcoded formulas - my bad By percentage, Baxter had fewer rushes that went for negative yards (2% for Baxter - 1 rush, 11.1% for Blue - 4 rushes), more rushes that went 5+ yards, more rushes that went 10+ yards. Blue had more rushes by % that went 20+ yards (2.8 vs 2.0%) and 1 that went for 30+ yards, Baxter had 0. this is just to prove that nobody was out here ripping of 18 yards very often and getting dinged by my 20 yard threshold Blue's rushes of 10+ yards: 11, 12, 69, 12, 16, 12 Baxter's rushes of 10+ yards: 12, 13, 13, 14, 21, 13, 10, 14, 13, 16 people get blinded by a 69 yard TD - which was awesome - but the guy was touched like 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage and never touched again despite this guy having 40 yards and this angle on him (he took a really bad angle)
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this is a damning quote
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oh man, this article from Feb on Martinez is aging really bad. feel terrible for OSU https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2024/02/oregon-states-trent-bray-on-recruiting-the-transfer-portal-damien-martinezs-loyalty-and-nil.html Oregon State’s Trent Bray on recruiting, the transfer portal, Damien Martinez’s loyalty and NIL the Martinez bit this is the money quote, which really makes him look like a true piece of shit
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it's Helobious, it's probably something dumb like he thinks that our RB room sucks
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Texas A&M Recruiting 2025: The Land of Melk & No Money
NoName replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
they are a few (any?) OL injuries away from being one of the worst offensive teams in the SEC. they have like two actual good OL on the team 1 of them plays inside. on defense they only have holes at Edge, DT, NT, LB and CB. they think they have even bigger holes at Edge if they are bringing in guys like Josh Celiscar at EDGE (he and Rylan Kennedy make up 40% of their EDGE players on campus right now) did i mention they also have 3 kickers on scholarship? and that they have an OC coaching his second year outside of the KSU bubble who hired 0 of the existing position coaches/has never worked with any of the already hired offensive coaches? next year is truly going to be a disaster for them. the OL alone means it's going to be a multiple year rebuild for them to be even decent. -
Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
NoName replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
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A&M paying the NIL bag for another DL would be an incredible waste of resources.
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Ethics? Ethics in here? Since when is that a thing. I'm not unaware Blue was 3rd string last year in spite of being rated higher (before skipping his senior year) than JB and true Freshman Baxter named the starter. I thought it was purely on talent eval by Choice/Sark, I missed anything said about his character. Why didn't Sark say bye bye when he announced he was entering the portal? I don't think a RB that wasn't getting the touches he expected threatening to portal was any worse than a starting WR (no names here) doing the same after every season, just maybe a little less publicly? just to point out, Baxter was a higher ranked recruit than Blue was. we all know the Brooks story. Blue topped out at #60 in the composite, Baxter finished at #30 Blue topped out at #31 (95 rating) in the Top247, Baxter finished at #30 (98 rating) and got as high as #26 also if you can't see the difference between Xavier Worthy threatening to enter the portal to get more NIL money (but keeping it all in house) and a RB with 5 career touches letting folks know he was going to enter the portal - i'm not sure what to say. let's review the tape on this: news hits that Blue is expected to enter the portal via IT and other paysites, including TFB Blue meets with coaches reported that coaches told Blue he could enter the portal but if he did there was no place for him to come back to Texas 4 hours after the news hitting Blue posts that he is "locked in" also if you don't think he has practiced what he was going to say about quitting on his high school team at all over the 3 years since he said it you really are fucking dumb.
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yeah, i'm really necro'ing a conversation where original post was made 20 hours ago and the most recent post that it spawned was made like 4 hours ago. if you think me, or anyone else on this god forsaken website, is going to not take the opportunity to call out people for posting dumb shit you really are an idiot. saying this is peak dumb shit. also, he didn't skip his senior year. he quit on his team, then tried to come back, then wasn't allowed back. this shit wasn't created whole cloth out of nothing.
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so just to be clear, you have a situation where a guy quits his HS team, then his his freshman year gets 15 total carries and averages 2.2 yards, then says he's going to enter the portal, then decides not to when Texas tells him goodby, then gets so outclassed by a true freshman RB that he is a very distant third on the depth chart (for comparison Keilan Robinson had 3 rushes vs Bama and X and Mitchell both had the same # of carries as Blue in that game), then ends up only getting snaps for the year because the starter tears his ACL and it moves him to 2nd on the depth chart. ...does Blue have really nice wiggle? absolutely. but his stats are bumped up a ton by the fact he had 26% of his yardage for the year on 2 carries (3% of his total carries) - that is not sustainable nor is it a real perception of his skill. if you drop the one 69 yard carry it drops his YPC an entire yard per carry (6.12 to 5.14) this isn't that complex. the imbalance in usage between the two is because of skill and skillset differences between the two. even now, how many articles have been written about how Blue is expected to be the starter for 24 (i haven't seen any) - maybe he takes a huge jump forward, and i hope he does. but the reason for the imbalance is clear if you pay any attention again, Texas saw fit to start a true Freshman against Alabama, give him the most touches on the team in that game 15 touches (same as Brooks) and give you guy 1 and you are confused as to why the imbalance exists? clearly they and everyone else under the sun think one guy is significantly better than the other.
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that's not what you said, and you know it
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2025: Duck Around and Find Out
NoName replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
2020 tOSU had Julian Fleming (4 overall), JSN (15 overall), Gee Scott Jr (37 overall) 2023 tOSU had Carnell Tate (22 overall), Brandon Inniss (35 overall) and Noah Rogers (40 overall) so one that includes 3 of those guys would be the best WR class based on the top - Moore at #4 overall, Lockett at #11 overall, Ffrench at 30. just edges out the 2021 tOSU class. the big takeaway here should be that Brian Hartline is really damn good at recruiting edit: the Alabama class posted earlier is a good point, but i'm only looking at recruiting rankings and them having overall players 24/29/35 isn't as good as the other classes. the 00 Texas class BJ Johnson at #7, Roy Williams at #18, Sloan Thomas at #34 is close. -
i wish they did more of the jumping compounds stuff, instead of just using what's basically 2 of the same tires and a situation where 1 is pretty much better than the others for the track.
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who on this roster scares you? at this point, Texas bringing back this much talent and not tattooing that ass by 3 TDs next year in College Station is an unacceptable result.
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listen when you have the chance to get a DE who gets a sack once every 6.1 games he starts (and he's started 37 in a row) you take that opportunity. 37 game started in a row, 6 sacks, 0 sacks in the 13 he started last year. they really are going to fucking suck next year and end up with Melko having to turn over some of his staff in Y2
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Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
NoName replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
im going to grab some of the comments from here hey lawyers, how big of a deal is "unauthorized practice of law" in this case? is it any different if he's an actual lawyer elsewhere vs if i did it? more funny stuff + -
Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
NoName replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
eh not JUST that. it's a wonderful cocktail of narcissist tough family environment growing up (specifically w/r/t his father) chasing the popularity he very clearly never had as a child surrounded by yes men decades of not sleeping enough need for approval - and having to find it somewhere else other than the results of his companies over the last few years recreational drug use (clearly this is ramping up over the last 12-24 months) overuse of Ambien all of those combined have led to some pretty clear mental health issues - which he has been told about multiple times by people, NOBODY is that proud of not going to therapy and never going to therapy without being told by many, many people they need therapy lol (also he has 100% been to therapy) the sleep thing is very real. this is through the end of 2022 i believe. dude is a 52 year old manchild chasing the approval he never got as a child, and becoming everything he hated growing up. add in the fact he is clearly spiraling, can't focus to save his life (TSLA down 28% YTD, all the failures currently ongoing with SpaceX, the ongoing housefire that is TWTR, focusing on xAI over all of the above, stealing engineers from TSLA for TWTR and xAI, etc), and not making any changes that anyone can see and you have a guy who is STRUGGLING -
Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
NoName replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
He really is Miles Bron editing in to drop the next few lines which are maybe even dumber than the prior few lines -
I'll cut anyone in a town of sub 1800 people a huge amount of slack. It's hard to make it there Two days a week in a town of 15k people is dumb. That's without considering the hours of the other bbq spots there: Black's is open 7 days a week 10-8. Terry Black's is basically the same. Same for Kreutz but they close at 6p one night. Smittys is 7-6 6 days a week and 9-6 on Sunday. ...Unless someone is willing to let Barbs run at a huge loss long term there is no way they are open 2 days a week when the next Top 50 drops.
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2024 Solar Eclipse - never too early to get ready
NoName replied to Wally Fairway's topic in Daily Texan
Yeah know folks w B&BS who said their dynamic pricing tool/dashboard is showing a good number of cancelations here. They got a couple of new bookings today for tomorrow night Locals here and there are. Lots of FB comments about how dead Fredericksburg is tonight. Tomorrow should be interesting -
i don't have it for 22 and thats just sacks per attempt, not sacks per pressure which is the real info to have/know. either way, it's been discussed in the past. it's a known thing about him
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