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heso

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Everything posted by heso

  1. Well since what I thought was the most likely scenario has come to call, with the rust belt long count deciding the election, it was time to pour some whisky for the long haul. So here’s a deep Blanton’s for those of you who haven’t given up yet.
  2. Yea but his model is based off of polling which is clearly fucked again.
  3. With PA we know that the mail in vote is 70+% democratic. But the other piece is that we’re still waiting on huge numbers from democratic counties for in person voting. Its a race to 3.2 million in PA and no one has crossed 2 million yet.
  4. Because the GOP didn’t want them to be counted today.
  5. My call for PA last week was that if Trump’s lead at the end of the night is less than 1,000,000 votes then Biden cleans up fairly comfortably tomorrow. It’s gonna take 3.2 or more votes to win PA and trump is only at 1.5.
  6. Don’t forget that the mail has been heavily delayed in NC and they have to keep accepting the ballots postmarked today for 9 days
  7. Are you mother fuckers ready for a fucking tie? It’s 2020 what the duck else did you think was going to happen?
  8. Where are you coming up with this? The three most populous counties in PA are all reporting less than 20% of the vote, are all overwhelmingly returning dem results, and are going to add to their totals over the next 48 hours.
  9. I’m actually still optimistic about MI and OH. There are still a lot of dem votes to count in both of those places.
  10. PA wont be close to being able to tell a lean for a while.
  11. This is what we’re going to be looking at tomorrow. And Trump will be in the lead by a few hundred thousand votes as the mail in ballots get counted.
  12. Ohio Processing: Officials started processing absentee ballots on Oct. 6. Counting: Ballots will start being counted at 7:30 p.m. on Election Day. Deadline: Mail ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2 and received no later than Nov. 13.
  13. Rural counties starting to come in and Cleveland still sitting at 45%, Columbus at 55%, Cincinnati at 49%
  14. There was also supposedly massive delays in mail in vote returns in the Atlanta areas. Idk if that played into it.
  15. Maybe. But it seems unlikely that they’ll get 350,000 ballots each processed and scanned in 12-16 hours in philly county and Allegheny County.
  16. Yea we’ll see how fast they can get them counted and when they will be releasing the results, but 36% of the mail in ballots are from 3 counties that Hillary won by 16, 21, and 67. i don’t know how much we’ll get of that tonight but Philly county said they will be releasing the mail-in count in batches starting tonight.
  17. You normally need a valid reason for an absentee ballot. 2016 there were about 225,000 cast statewide. Because of covid, this year you could just request one online. Took 3 minutes. There were over 3 million ballot requests. when it became clear that the option was being overwhelmingly utilized by Dems and that the counties had no way to count them the day of the election(took a week for the June primary count), it became a political battle. The Dems wanted the ballots to be processed earlier, the GOP wanted to minimize the amount of time that they could collect ballots. so you have dem controlled counties ready to start processing as soon as they can and gop controlled counties waiting until tomorrow to even start so Trumps lead looks as large as possible on Election Day.
  18. hopefully this swayed a few fence sitting republicans. He first endorsed Biden a month ago.
  19. If Trump’s lead is less than 1,000,000 you can go ahead and call it tonight. The Dems have a little more than that advantage in returned mail in ballots and you can probably pad his lead with a majority of the 260,000 independent MIBs.
  20. Most of the rest of the state has gotten redder, some of it significantly redder. It used to be a T with a strong dem lean in the Southwest. It’s now just Pittsburgh, state college and the philly area.
  21. I voted for Biden. if Trump wins I want eggs Benedict. If Biden wins I want a bacon egg and cheese on an everything bagel. See how that works?
  22. 1.9 million Dems requested mail in ballots. Even if 100% of those returned them successfully, if that’s 65% of the dem vote that’s only 2.9 million votes. 2.9 million won PA last time, but there are more voters and turnout is expected to be higher. Probably takes at least 3.1 if not 3.3 to win PA this year. There are currently 600k outstanding mail in ballots. 350 dem, 264 rep, 92 ind. excluding the undecided independents that works out to 398k outstanding mail in ballots for dems, vs 264k mail in ballots for gop. The state comes down more to how well the Dems gotv tomorrow than it does to the remaining mail in ballots.
  23. Yea, but when almost everything is pointing to Biden winning PA, if you’re really searching for a sign that it will go to Trump, that line item in the Monmouth Poll released today is about the only straw to grasp at right now.
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